Definitive-Nail — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$14

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

73.6%

Resolved

117

Trades

261

lifetime

Volume

$1.60K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-20

last 07-04 12:48

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 51 days

Categories

Other

94% 67% -$7

Politics

3% 67% -$7

Tech

3% 100% +$0

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-04).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	1	$30	30	0	+30	Yes	+$0	06-20 01:36
Will Peter Underwood win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral election?	2	$29	15	15	+0	No	+$1	05-08 16:29
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 79m?	2	$29	15	15	+0	Yes	+$1	06-01 05:16
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	2	$29	15	15	+0	No	+$1	06-26 15:59
Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m and 95m?	2	$26	14	14	+0	No	+$1	04-27 00:58
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	2	$25	13	13	+0	Yes	+$1	04-30 16:01
gpt 5pt6 released by june 15 2026 343	2	$24	12	12	+0	No	+$0	06-15 09:06
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1?	2	$21	11	11	+0	No	+$1	06-14 02:17
Will Jessica Killin be the Democratic nominee for CO-05?	2	$21	11	11	+0	Yes	+$1	06-29 23:19
Critical Discord Incident by May 31?	2	$21	11	11	+0	No	+$1	05-31 10:03
Macron out by June 30, 2026?	1	$20	20	0	+20	No	+$0	06-25 12:46
Will MrBeast's next video get between 59.25 and 60 million views in week 1?	2	$20	10	10	+0	No	+$0	07-04 12:48
will apple announce the iphone 18 during the wwdc 2026 keynote	2	$20	10	10	+0	No	+$0	06-08 20:24
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 90m?	2	$20	10	10	+0	No	+$0	05-03 15:55
Will White House post 180-199 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	2	$19	10	10	+0	No	+$1	05-05 13:41
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 28?	3	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	06-27 13:04
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 17?	2	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	06-17 00:06
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on May 28?	2	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	05-27 17:56
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on May 3?	2	$15	30	0	+30	Yes	+$0	05-03 06:12
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on May 4?	2	$15	30	0	+30	Yes	+$0	05-04 07:56
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 17?	2	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	05-17 13:53
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on May 4?	2	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	05-03 22:02
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on April 25?	2	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	04-25 07:49
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 24?	2	$15	30	0	+30	Yes	+$0	06-24 06:06
highest temperature in wuhan on april 23 2026 20c	2	$15	30	0	+30	No	$0	04-23 05:46
highest temperature in toronto on april 21 2026 9c	2	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	04-21 10:14
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 15?	4	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	06-14 23:30
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 67°F or below on April 30?	3	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	04-29 15:05
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on April 27?	7	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	04-27 12:38
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 13?	3	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	06-12 22:31

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-04 12:48:23	Will MrBeast's next video get between 59.25 and 60 million views in week 1?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x0ebbe0…
07-04 07:06:16	Will MrBeast's next video get between 59.25 and 60 million views in week 1?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x38cd58…
06-29 23:19:20	Will Jessica Killin be the Democratic nominee for CO-05?	Yes	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0x65ef47…
06-29 02:37:50	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xa87cb8…
06-29 00:05:35	Will Jessica Killin be the Democratic nominee for CO-05?	Yes	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0x37982a…
06-28 14:50:59	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 28?	Yes	BUY	11	2¢	$0	0xbd0e90…
06-28 10:56:40	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 28?	No	BUY	11	98¢	$11	0x79e4bc…
06-27 13:04:55	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 28?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x83a797…
06-27 13:04:53	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 28?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x3e4746…
06-27 12:05:14	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 28?	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0xabbf68…
06-26 15:59:37	Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	No	SELL	15	99¢	$15	0xc56d0d…
06-26 08:44:59	Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	No	BUY	15	93¢	$14	0xca17ca…
06-25 12:46:25	Macron out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xf11031…
06-25 02:40:34	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 25?	Yes	BUY	14	2¢	$0	0x6ec44b…
06-25 02:28:20	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 25?	Yes	BUY	0	2¢	$0	0xaabc22…
06-25 02:21:37	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 25?	No	BUY	14	98¢	$14	0xaaea65…
06-24 06:06:19	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 24?	No	BUY	15	1¢	$0	0x48999c…
06-24 05:12:50	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 24?	Yes	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x680366…
06-22 22:15:35	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 23?	Yes	BUY	12	1¢	$0	0xac4750…
06-22 22:15:34	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 23?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0xea66e6…
06-22 21:33:14	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 23?	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x07fa37…
06-22 20:37:59	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 23?	No	BUY	14	98¢	$14	0x24bb4e…
06-21 08:15:29	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 21?	No	BUY	7	1¢	$0	0x720a95…
06-21 08:13:44	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 21?	No	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x552314…
06-21 08:11:56	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 21?	Yes	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0xf50b4f…
06-20 11:16:16	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 20?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xb17287…
06-20 11:04:55	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 20?	No	BUY	11	98¢	$11	0x7c4aa5…
06-20 01:36:29	Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x15be49…
06-19 13:56:11	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 20?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x050c31…
06-19 12:03:46	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 20?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xddad1b…
06-17 00:06:58	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 17?	Yes	BUY	15	2¢	$0	0x3a1735…
06-17 00:06:26	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 17?	No	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0xe56a04…
06-16 03:07:31	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 16?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x97975b…
06-16 03:00:22	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 16?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x1b5d8a…
06-16 02:51:10	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16?	No	BUY	11	98¢	$11	0xa19af9…
06-15 09:06:10	gpt 5pt6 released by june 15 2026 343	No	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0xbdd04c…
06-14 23:30:46	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 15?	Yes	BUY	2	2¢	$0	0x4202bf…
06-14 20:23:58	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 15?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x134a3a…
06-14 20:02:57	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 15?	Yes	BUY	3	2¢	$0	0x29291a…
06-14 16:25:04	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 15?	No	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0x3412c6…
06-14 02:17:49	Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x30b3f0…
06-14 00:44:07	Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1?	No	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0xe969ce…
06-14 00:03:45	gpt 5pt6 released by june 15 2026 343	No	BUY	12	98¢	$12	0x22c800…
06-12 22:31:10	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 13?	Yes	BUY	14	2¢	$0	0x42b9d8…
06-12 22:19:18	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 13?	Yes	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0xf95f22…
06-12 22:01:01	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 13?	No	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0xa67a39…
06-12 20:38:06	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C or higher on June 13?	No	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0xe847ab…
06-12 05:14:57	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 12?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xb9c2e4…
06-12 05:14:34	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 12?	Yes	BUY	4	1¢	$0	0x7a7cf2…
06-12 05:10:07	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 12?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x8cebe1…
06-12 04:39:36	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 12?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x35758c…
06-11 16:46:30	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 12?	Yes	BUY	11	1¢	$0	0xaa2560…
06-11 12:05:00	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 12?	No	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0xf1a362…
06-10 13:41:40	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 90-91°F on June 11?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xca02f6…
06-10 13:14:51	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 90-91°F on June 11?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xf2bdb3…
06-10 13:14:51	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 90-91°F on June 11?	Yes	BUY	2	2¢	$0	0x29b3d6…
06-10 12:05:51	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 90-91°F on June 11?	No	BUY	12	98¢	$12	0x8aedf9…
06-08 20:24:13	will apple announce the iphone 18 during the wwdc 2026 keynote	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xacd7f2…
06-08 17:02:54	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 9?	Yes	BUY	12	2¢	$0	0x3d8a97…
06-08 16:13:36	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 9?	No	BUY	12	98¢	$12	0x27b40b…
06-08 03:37:58	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 8?	Yes	BUY	11	1¢	$0	0x3d6500…
06-08 03:09:52	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 8?	No	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x918401…
06-07 12:41:33	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 8?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xf0daf3…
06-07 12:30:37	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 8?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x616137…
06-07 02:22:58	will apple announce the iphone 18 during the wwdc 2026 keynote	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x202212…
06-06 11:54:34	Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 6?	Yes	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0x1193ef…
06-06 11:38:42	Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 6?	Yes	BUY	13	2¢	$0	0x62926f…
06-06 09:19:24	Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 6?	No	BUY	14	98¢	$14	0x28b4bf…
06-05 12:57:27	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 6?	Yes	BUY	6	1¢	$0	0xf7f37e…
06-05 12:55:58	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 6?	Yes	BUY	3	1¢	$0	0xea8fac…
06-05 12:51:30	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 6?	Yes	BUY	4	1¢	$0	0xe91e3e…
06-05 12:04:27	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 6?	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x96200a…
06-04 16:53:27	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 5?	Yes	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0xf37397…
06-04 16:53:24	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 5?	Yes	BUY	7	2¢	$0	0x7cf887…
06-04 16:15:46	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 5?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xd29af8…
06-04 14:37:57	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 5?	No	BUY	13	98¢	$13	0x470622…
06-03 16:04:19	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 4?	Yes	BUY	12	2¢	$0	0x0ecb77…
06-03 12:05:34	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 4?	No	BUY	12	98¢	$12	0x6bca74…
06-02 15:25:57	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 3?	Yes	BUY	9	1¢	$0	0xd2fe85…
06-02 15:23:42	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 3?	Yes	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0x39144d…
06-02 15:14:49	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 3?	No	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x732ca3…
06-02 10:29:56	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 2?	Yes	BUY	6	1¢	$0	0x7643ad…
06-02 10:13:10	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 2?	Yes	BUY	4	1¢	$0	0x2d256b…
06-02 08:45:24	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 2?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x3270fd…
06-01 19:05:21	Will Zachariah Wooden advance from the CA-07 primary election?	No	BUY	13	90¢	$12	0x7507d4…
06-01 09:06:22	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 1?	No	BUY	11	1¢	$0	0xc47eae…
06-01 08:40:42	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 1?	Yes	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x3d7d2e…
06-01 05:16:11	Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 79m?	Yes	SELL	15	99¢	$15	0x8ecd2f…
05-31 14:11:54	Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 79m?	Yes	BUY	15	93¢	$14	0x48efdc…
05-31 10:03:01	Critical Discord Incident by May 31?	No	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0x2f0a61…
05-31 03:13:54	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on May 31?	Yes	BUY	14	1¢	$0	0x947068…
05-31 03:13:33	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on May 31?	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0xf9ba65…
05-30 13:50:32	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on May 30?	Yes	BUY	8	2¢	$0	0x0c9a40…
05-30 10:52:00	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on May 30?	Yes	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0xbbaf42…
05-30 10:44:04	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on May 30?	Yes	BUY	6	2¢	$0	0x927d16…
05-30 10:22:32	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on May 30?	No	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0xf8857c…
05-30 00:03:23	Critical Discord Incident by May 31?	No	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0xa4fd99…
05-29 15:37:31	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C or higher on May 30?	Yes	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0x8e843e…
05-29 15:23:58	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C or higher on May 30?	Yes	BUY	12	2¢	$0	0x66d9fa…
05-29 13:56:15	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C or higher on May 30?	No	BUY	13	98¢	$13	0xcc8eb5…