Firm-Ground — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$321

Unrealized P&L

+$14

Hit rate

69.9%

Resolved

2,362

Trades

5,571

lifetime

Volume

$35.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$21

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-31

last 10-28 23:36

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 83 days

Categories

Crypto

98% 68% -$107

Other

1% 35% -$50

Politics

1% 33% -$129

Sports

0% 24% -$35

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes		+134	$5	14¢	$19	+$14	10-25 17:49
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes		+6	$3	36¢	$2	-$1	10-28 23:36

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-16 15:30 UTC	11	$103	97	16	+81	Down	+$9	02-16 15:32
will lvaro roberto ramos chaves win the 2026 costa rican presidential election	2	$102	1,301	0	+1,301	No	-$102	02-01 16:32
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-17 19:00 UTC	9	$86	55	54	+1	Down	-$8	02-17 19:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-18 01:05 UTC	8	$77	43	42	+1	Down	-$1	02-18 01:09
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-16 22:30 UTC	9	$77	43	40	+3	Up	+$2	02-16 22:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-17 23:00 UTC	9	$73	48	43	+6	Down	-$5	02-17 23:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-17 22:50 UTC	6	$73	46	45	+1	Up	-$11	02-17 22:55
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-17 15:50 UTC	6	$71	39	38	+1	Up	+$2	02-17 15:54
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-17 20:35 UTC	10	$68	39	39	+1	Up	-$4	02-17 20:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-17 17:00 UTC	7	$68	39	37	+2	Up	-$1	02-17 17:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-17 20:20 UTC	7	$67	41	40	+1	Up	-$3	02-17 20:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-17 14:30 UTC	6	$66	40	37	+4	Up	-$1	02-17 14:35
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-16 13:40 UTC	4	$57	34	33	+1	Up	-$1	02-16 13:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-17 22:35 UTC	4	$56	30	29	+1	Up	+$1	02-17 22:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-17 22:20 UTC	4	$56	30	29	+1	Up	+$1	02-17 22:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-18 14:25 UTC	5	$56	32	30	+2	Down	+$1	02-18 14:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-16 12:55 UTC	4	$55	33	33	+1	Up	-$3	02-16 13:00
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-17 13:40 UTC	7	$54	30	29	+1	Down	+$1	02-17 13:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-17 23:05 UTC	4	$54	32	31	+1	Down	-$2	02-17 23:09
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-17 13:15 UTC	6	$53	29	28	+0	Down	+$2	02-17 13:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-17 22:00 UTC	6	$52	31	31	+1	Down	-$2	02-17 22:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-17 22:25 UTC	8	$52	31	26	+5	Up	+$2	02-17 22:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-16 15:45 UTC	7	$52	34	33	+1	Up	-$6	02-16 15:49
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-17 23:30 UTC	4	$51	31	29	+2	Up	-$3	02-17 23:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-17 09:45 UTC	7	$50	31	30	+1	Down	-$3	02-17 09:49
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-16 22:25 UTC	4	$50	28	25	+3	Down	+$1	02-16 22:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-18 01:20 UTC	6	$50	33	21	+12	Up	+$3	02-18 01:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-17 11:25 UTC	6	$50	30	27	+3	Up	$0	02-17 11:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-17 01:00 UTC	4	$49	30	29	+2	Down	-$2	02-17 01:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-16 16:20 UTC	4	$49	27	26	+1	Up	+$2	02-16 16:24

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 23:36:43	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	6	47¢	$3	0xe401bb…
10-26 23:10:35	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x02e283…
10-26 17:14:29	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0x4d9ec3…
10-25 21:26:35	Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	27	31¢	$8	0xd16671…
10-25 18:54:24	49ers vs. Falcons	49ers	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0x27e25d…
10-25 18:48:17	49ers vs. Falcons	49ers	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0x039667…
10-25 17:51:32	Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	27	15¢	$4	0xc5727f…
10-25 17:49:59	Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	SELL	66	16¢	$10	0x7c9dc5…
09-29 15:56:21	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	4	44¢	$2	0x22b4ef…
09-22 19:22:54	Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	BUY	200	8¢	$15	0x719608…
09-22 19:22:09	Will San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?	Yes	BUY	31	16¢	$5	0x0c109d…
09-22 19:16:24	Will Lionel Messi finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	48	42¢	$20	0xc9dfce…
07-19 18:57:09	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x596057…
07-15 17:56:55	Will England win on 2026-07-15?	Yes	BUY	8	36¢	$3	0x11411b…
07-14 20:32:32	Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	12	25¢	$3	0x6f330d…
07-12 18:35:35	Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	8	34¢	$3	0xc97b90…
07-10 20:51:05	Will Spain vs. Belgium end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	12	9¢	$1	0x80d7c5…
07-09 21:54:29	Will France vs. Morocco end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	12	0¢	$0	0xa2001d…
07-09 20:39:02	Will France vs. Morocco end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	12	26¢	$3	0x1b2a36…
07-08 04:04:23	Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?	Yes	BUY	13	23¢	$3	0xe27e70…
07-07 21:51:28	Will Switzerland vs. Colombia end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	6	87¢	$5	0x2dfeec…
07-07 21:26:38	Will Spain vs. Belgium end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	12	25¢	$3	0x8ae3e4…
07-07 21:26:25	Will Morocco win on 2026-07-09?	Yes	BUY	13	15¢	$2	0x11a792…
07-06 20:52:35	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0xe0c0e0…
07-06 20:52:05	Will Portugal vs. Spain end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	7	77¢	$6	0x1955d4…
07-06 00:52:50	Will Switzerland vs. Colombia end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0xd561a4…
07-06 00:52:31	Will United States vs. Belgium end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0x450bad…
07-05 21:44:17	Will Norway win on 2026-07-05?	Yes	SELL	23	60¢	$14	0xab0393…
07-05 03:17:55	Will Mexico vs. England end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	6	31¢	$2	0xe69003…
07-05 03:14:50	Will Portugal vs. Spain end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0xeac349…
07-04 18:41:07	Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?	Yes	SELL	10	69¢	$7	0x6a96f0…
07-03 21:08:28	Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?	Yes	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x59b60d…
07-03 05:11:49	Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	33	2¢	$1	0x29a18a…
07-03 05:10:53	Will Norway win on 2026-07-05?	Yes	BUY	23	22¢	$5	0x213836…
07-03 05:09:43	Will Egypt win on 2026-07-03?	Yes	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x6f6542…
07-03 05:09:17	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	37	19¢	$7	0xf80999…
07-03 05:08:44	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	9	23¢	$2	0x75685d…
07-03 04:44:59	Will Egypt win on 2026-07-03?	Yes	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0x3fd723…
07-03 04:44:20	Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02?	Yes	SELL	6	98¢	$6	0xf70936…
07-02 02:40:41	Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02?	Yes	BUY	6	47¢	$3	0x62684b…
07-02 02:04:47	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	19	10¢	$2	0x76b4fd…
07-01 17:15:14	fifwc eng cdr 2026 07 01 extra time	Yes	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0x390558…
06-30 18:50:34	Will Norway win on 2026-06-30?	Yes	SELL	4	85¢	$4	0x796d75…
06-30 14:42:46	Will Portugal vs. Croatia end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0x20a56b…
06-28 22:42:50	Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01?	Yes	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0x736654…
06-28 22:42:38	Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-30?	Yes	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0x30f0ef…
06-28 04:33:43	Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?	Yes	BUY	8	40¢	$3	0x267222…
06-28 03:54:11	Will Egypt win on 2026-07-03?	Yes	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x378a9a…
06-28 01:22:53	Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	12	81¢	$10	0xaf55c9…
06-27 13:25:07	Will Norway win on 2026-06-30?	Yes	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0x2582a0…
06-27 13:25:01	Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0x7530e0…
06-27 13:24:52	Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0xd27269…
06-27 13:11:10	Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	6	31¢	$2	0x65c226…
06-26 04:18:53	Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	12	25¢	$3	0x3d53d5…
06-24 19:39:53	Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	11	2¢	$0	0xec568d…
06-24 17:07:53	Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	11	18¢	$2	0xa99e41…
06-24 03:39:01	Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	SELL	8	91¢	$7	0xa5f246…
06-24 01:04:01	Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0xa7a18b…
06-24 00:43:53	Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	SELL	15	89¢	$13	0x4049c7…
06-23 22:12:58	Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	BUY	15	68¢	$10	0xc6dd66…
06-23 15:16:07	Will Canada win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	BUY	7	29¢	$2	0xc4bd7b…
06-23 05:11:47	Will Norway vs. France end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	9	23¢	$2	0x608261…
06-23 05:11:28	Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0xec045d…
06-23 05:08:29	Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	32	0¢	$0	0xd422d4…
06-22 17:17:52	Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	12	26¢	$3	0xf1f8f6…
06-22 00:15:19	Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	13	23¢	$3	0x29406a…
06-21 23:30:23	Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	10	42¢	$4	0x84c483…
06-21 22:22:13	Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0x7ed396…
06-21 20:48:55	Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	10	66¢	$7	0x5ad2ce…
06-21 20:18:11	Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	BUY	7	43¢	$3	0xfdfffd…
06-21 20:17:31	Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0xa3847e…
06-21 01:42:28	Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	11	51¢	$6	0xfe0206…
06-21 00:39:46	Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	11	18¢	$2	0xb93e7e…
06-21 00:24:31	Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	BUY	4	68¢	$3	0xe9276d…
06-21 00:22:25	Will a player representing Spain be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	10	3¢	$0	0x751677…
06-20 04:43:50	Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	SELL	8	12¢	$1	0x5bf4eb…
06-20 03:49:43	Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	BUY	8	39¢	$3	0xa99aab…
06-19 20:36:04	Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	SELL	8	97¢	$8	0x586b53…
06-19 18:03:22	Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x5898c1…
06-19 18:03:01	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	9	35¢	$3	0x324eef…
06-17 04:20:29	Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	12	25¢	$3	0x651013…
06-17 04:20:19	Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	8	24¢	$2	0xef3fb5…
06-17 04:18:55	Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	BUY	12	25¢	$3	0x687286…
06-17 04:18:10	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	37	11¢	$4	0x0e8cf2…
06-14 20:29:30	Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0x43798d…
06-14 20:28:40	Will a player representing Spain be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	10	19¢	$2	0xb8d1fa…
06-14 20:27:55	Will a player representing Germany be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	31	10¢	$3	0x1244dd…
06-14 20:27:04	will usa reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149721	Yes	BUY	26	15¢	$4	0x74e84f…
06-13 00:31:36	Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?	Yes	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0x5368cd…
06-12 04:13:46	Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	32	6¢	$2	0x240165…
06-12 04:13:24	Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	33	9¢	$3	0xfb49b0…
06-11 12:46:45	Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	33	81¢	$27	0x6de5c6…
06-08 23:20:22	Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	BUY	17	12¢	$2	0xeef3b6…
05-30 22:57:05	Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	15	32¢	$5	0x7e0e06…
05-21 20:34:18	Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	18	17¢	$3	0x8da7a5…
04-30 19:09:30	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on May 1?	Yes	BUY	7	43¢	$3	0x5a80e0…
04-30 16:45:56	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on May 1?	Yes	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0xe24975…
04-30 16:45:32	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 1?	Yes	BUY	13	8¢	$1	0xff6603…
04-30 16:34:30	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C or higher on April 30?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xa76f1a…
04-30 16:34:24	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on April 30?	Yes	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x219b3b…