Mushy-Capacity — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$38

Unrealized P&L

-$3

Hit rate

43.7%

Resolved

1,541

Trades

2,519

lifetime

Volume

$15.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$12

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-27

last 11-01 16:13

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 176 days

Categories

Crypto

99% 55% +$26

Other

1% 62% +$12

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

41 active days in 12wk • peak 37 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes		+10	$9	92¢	$9	+$1	09-13 04:54
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	Yes		+20	$7	16¢	$3	-$4	10-05 10:17

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
bitcoin up or down june 25 2026 2am et	2	$165	92	92	+0	Up	+$18	06-25 07:11
bitcoin up or down july 19 2026 11pm et	2	$125	95	95	+0	Up	-$22	07-20 03:37
bitcoin up or down august 5 2026 11am et	2	$119	90	90	+0	Down	-$28	08-05 15:45
bitcoin up or down june 24 2026 9am et	2	$82	46	46	+0	Down	+$9	06-24 13:41
bitcoin up or down july 29 2026 9am et	1	$73	97	0	+97	Up	+$23	07-29 13:42
bitcoin up or down august 5 2026 9am et	2	$66	47	47	+0	Up	-$7	08-05 13:53
bitcoin up or down june 29 2026 9pm et	2	$64	47	47	+0	Up	-$9	06-30 01:38
bitcoin up or down august 7 2026 12pm et	2	$62	46	46	+0	Down	-$12	08-07 16:24
bitcoin up or down june 24 2026 10pm et	2	$62	46	46	+0	Down	-$12	06-25 02:19
bitcoin up or down july 19 2026 10pm et	2	$61	46	46	+0	Up	-$12	07-20 02:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 12AM ET	2	$60	47	47	+0	Up	-$13	07-29 04:09
bitcoin up or down january 31 2am et	62	$55	306	182	+124	Down	-$7	01-31 07:48
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?	5	$50	30	30	+0	Yes	+$5	10-05 14:12
bitcoin up or down june 8 2026 4pm et	2	$46	33	33	+0	Up	-$7	06-08 20:39
bitcoin up or down march 22 2026 11pm et	2	$45	25	25	+0	Down	+$5	03-23 03:59
bitcoin up or down march 27 2026 12pm et	2	$45	33	33	+0	Down	-$7	03-27 16:45
bitcoin up or down april 2 2026 10pm et	2	$44	34	33	+1	Down	-$7	04-03 02:16
bitcoin up or down june 4 2026 3pm et	2	$44	32	32	+0	Down	-$8	06-04 19:37
bitcoin up or down april 1 2026 3pm et	2	$44	33	32	+0	Up	-$8	04-01 19:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9PM ET	2	$44	33	33	+0	Down	-$8	05-08 01:33
bitcoin up or down april 9 2026 8pm et	2	$44	33	32	+0	Up	-$8	04-10 00:38
bitcoin up or down march 22 2026 9pm et	6	$42	25	25	+0	Up	+$2	03-23 01:16
bitcoin up or down july 16 2026 11pm et	2	$37	22	22	+0	Up	+$1	07-17 03:51
bitcoin up or down august 3 2026 9pm et	1	$37	46	0	+46	Up	+$9	08-04 01:20
bitcoin up or down march 24 2026 9am et	3	$33	27	13	+14	Down	+$6	03-24 13:40
bitcoin up or down july 13 2026 9am et	2	$32	24	24	+0	Down	-$5	07-13 13:28
bitcoin up or down july 19 2026 9pm et	2	$32	23	23	+0	Up	-$5	07-20 01:52
bitcoin up or down march 24 2026 4pm et	2	$32	127	126	+1	Up	-$9	03-24 20:20
bitcoin up or down june 24 2026 8am et	2	$31	23	23	+0	Down	-$5	06-24 12:38
bitcoin up or down august 3 2026 6pm et	2	$31	24	24	+0	Up	-$5	08-03 22:16

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-01 16:13:30	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $900B by October 31?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xcf2e3d…
10-26 19:46:21	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.3T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	73¢	$7	0x635c32…
10-15 07:04:37	will openais valuation hit low 900b by october 31 2026	No	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0xa6a80e…
10-08 13:30:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 9AM ET	Up	SELL	10	55¢	$5	0x12ea2b…
10-08 13:22:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 9AM ET	Up	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0x00a507…
10-08 12:35:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 8AM ET	Down	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0xe06f30…
10-08 11:41:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 7AM ET	Down	SELL	10	61¢	$6	0xe201f3…
10-08 11:08:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 7AM ET	Down	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0x6ec83a…
10-08 09:16:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 5AM ET	Up	SELL	10	56¢	$6	0xf9b922…
10-08 09:08:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 5AM ET	Up	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0x71f8a2…
10-08 07:16:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 3AM ET	Up	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0x9c1703…
10-08 06:23:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 2AM ET	Up	SELL	10	61¢	$6	0xf3c79b…
10-08 06:06:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 2AM ET	Up	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0x0ff4f2…
10-08 05:58:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 1AM ET	Up	SELL	10	80¢	$8	0xaa8e0f…
10-08 05:20:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 1AM ET	Up	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0x78722d…
10-08 03:06:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 11PM ET	Down	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0x772c70…
10-08 01:33:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 9PM ET	Down	SELL	10	58¢	$6	0x06be91…
10-08 01:21:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 9PM ET	Down	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0xeaf5cf…
10-07 20:34:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 4PM ET	Up	SELL	10	57¢	$6	0x0ecd47…
10-07 20:16:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 4PM ET	Up	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0x8a57c4…
10-07 18:04:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 2PM ET	Up	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0xb23431…
10-07 17:28:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 1PM ET	Down	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0xde2d7f…
10-07 16:24:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 12PM ET	Up	SELL	10	58¢	$6	0xe18bd6…
10-07 16:22:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 12PM ET	Up	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0xc3c3a5…
10-07 15:31:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 11AM ET	Up	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0xe32c2e…
10-07 14:44:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 10AM ET	Down	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0x55c7a0…
10-07 13:38:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0xb89025…
10-07 12:35:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 8AM ET	Down	SELL	10	61¢	$6	0x277635…
10-07 12:25:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 8AM ET	Down	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0xfe1b59…
10-07 10:50:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 6AM ET	Down	SELL	10	61¢	$6	0x3dad46…
10-07 10:43:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 6AM ET	Down	BUY	10	82¢	$8	0x3e2f14…
10-07 09:20:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 5AM ET	Down	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0xa350a7…
10-07 08:34:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 4AM ET	Down	SELL	10	61¢	$6	0x7c4b70…
10-07 08:30:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 4AM ET	Down	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0x7b31f1…
10-07 06:34:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 2AM ET	Down	SELL	10	61¢	$6	0x34c50c…
10-07 06:19:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 2AM ET	Down	BUY	10	82¢	$8	0x5a8a8c…
10-07 03:14:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 11PM ET	Up	SELL	10	60¢	$6	0x69b92d…
10-07 03:09:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 11PM ET	Up	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0x421aca…
10-07 02:05:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 10PM ET	Down	BUY	10	78¢	$8	0xc81634…
10-07 01:19:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 9PM ET	Down	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0x2035c5…
10-06 15:23:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 11AM ET	Down	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0x7506d9…
10-06 14:41:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 10AM ET	Down	SELL	10	54¢	$5	0xb58048…
10-06 14:20:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 10AM ET	Down	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0xeea0d0…
10-06 13:46:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 9AM ET	Up	BUY	10	77¢	$8	0x77c921…
10-06 11:28:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 7AM ET	Up	SELL	10	61¢	$6	0xc35d67…
10-06 11:16:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 7AM ET	Up	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0x2d3b36…
10-06 09:50:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 5AM ET	Down	SELL	10	46¢	$5	0xa13943…
10-06 09:28:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 5AM ET	Down	BUY	10	78¢	$8	0xc1b8b3…
10-06 06:06:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 2AM ET	Down	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0x4e36fd…
10-06 02:22:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 10PM ET	Down	SELL	10	61¢	$6	0x9775bb…
10-06 02:09:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 10PM ET	Down	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0xcefd0a…
10-06 01:17:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 9PM ET	Up	SELL	10	61¢	$6	0x4fe06a…
10-06 01:06:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 9PM ET	Up	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0xda1a60…
10-05 18:29:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 2PM ET	Up	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0x9d73c7…
10-05 16:26:17	bitcoin up or down october 5 2026 12pm et	Down	SELL	10	60¢	$6	0xbfdd68…
10-05 16:23:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 12PM ET	Down	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0xb0626c…
10-05 15:35:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 11AM ET	Down	BUY	10	82¢	$8	0xb1d490…
10-05 14:30:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 10AM ET	Down	BUY	10	81¢	$8	0x5d432e…
10-05 14:12:20	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0x81c62a…
10-05 10:17:14	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0xb9d2a2…
09-21 15:20:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 11AM ET	Up	SELL	10	61¢	$6	0xa302bf…
09-21 15:14:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 11AM ET	Up	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0x1bdebc…
09-21 14:40:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 10AM ET	Up	SELL	10	61¢	$6	0xc167c1…
09-21 14:39:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 10AM ET	Up	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0xf5cf0f…
09-21 13:35:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 9AM ET	Down	SELL	10	63¢	$6	0xa71e7c…
09-21 13:28:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	10	78¢	$8	0xc20b1d…
09-21 12:22:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 8AM ET	Up	SELL	10	61¢	$6	0x17f203…
09-21 12:19:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 8AM ET	Up	BUY	10	77¢	$8	0xebdeee…
09-21 11:25:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 7AM ET	Up	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0x8c4c40…
09-21 10:29:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 6AM ET	Down	BUY	10	81¢	$8	0xce4943…
09-21 08:07:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 4AM ET	Up	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0xd114c7…
09-21 07:52:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 3AM ET	Down	SELL	10	55¢	$6	0x2b34ff…
09-21 07:32:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 3AM ET	Down	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0x388996…
09-21 06:40:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 2AM ET	Up	SELL	10	60¢	$6	0x25c158…
09-21 06:17:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 2AM ET	Up	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0x32f06c…
09-21 04:39:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 12AM ET	Down	SELL	10	58¢	$6	0x065977…
09-21 04:20:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 12AM ET	Down	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0xb9519a…
09-21 02:09:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 10PM ET	Up	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0x1b1748…
09-21 01:26:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 9PM ET	Up	SELL	10	56¢	$6	0xb4c63d…
09-21 01:20:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 9PM ET	Up	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0xd807bb…
09-21 00:06:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 8PM ET	Up	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0x1afcad…
09-20 22:28:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 6PM ET	Up	BUY	10	82¢	$8	0x748d89…
09-20 21:03:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 5PM ET	Down	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0x5fd4ee…
09-20 17:34:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 1PM ET	Down	SELL	10	63¢	$6	0xec8522…
09-20 17:27:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 1PM ET	Down	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0xebe0a3…
09-20 16:11:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 12PM ET	Up	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0x07ee00…
09-20 15:28:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 11AM ET	Up	SELL	10	58¢	$6	0x4166cf…
09-20 15:07:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 11AM ET	Up	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0xca7e5b…
09-20 14:11:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 10AM ET	Up	SELL	10	60¢	$6	0x021586…
09-20 14:04:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 10AM ET	Up	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0xcba445…
09-20 05:16:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 1AM ET	Up	SELL	10	60¢	$6	0x61b7ba…
09-20 05:15:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 1AM ET	Up	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0x75cf53…
09-20 04:24:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 12AM ET	Down	SELL	10	59¢	$6	0x28e8f5…
09-20 04:22:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 12AM ET	Down	BUY	10	81¢	$8	0x9f6985…
09-20 03:27:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 19, 11PM ET	Up	SELL	10	59¢	$6	0x223d05…
09-20 03:22:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 19, 11PM ET	Up	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0x38e776…
09-19 21:49:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 19, 5PM ET	Down	SELL	11	61¢	$6	0x1d3d4b…
09-19 21:14:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 19, 5PM ET	Down	BUY	11	76¢	$8	0x080d8b…
09-19 16:23:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 19, 12PM ET	Up	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0x5b48f7…
09-19 14:25:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 19, 10AM ET	Up	BUY	10	81¢	$8	0x2938ac…