Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$241

Unrealized P&L

-$254

Hit rate

86.5%

Resolved

1,594

Trades

1,798

lifetime

Volume

$85.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$48

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-07-30

last 10-14 14:46

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 33 days

Categories

Crypto

94% 88% +$342

Other

3% 56% -$176

Tech

3% 75% +$75

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

34 active days in 12wk • peak 185 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
next fable model 5pt2 released by october 31 2026	Yes		+292	$260	2¢	$6	-$254	10-14 14:46

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026?	4	$1.3K	901	901	+0	Yes	+$17	09-22 16:36
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-20 03:25 UTC	3	$852	480	480	+0	Down	+$52	09-20 03:28
Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 4, 2026?	4	$793	1,161	1,161	+0	Yes	+$93	09-04 19:13
Next OpenAI GPT Luna (5.7+) released by September 22, 2026?	5	$612	702	0	+702	Yes	+$91	09-22 17:48
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-20 08:20 UTC	1	$400	404	0	+404	Down	+$4	09-20 08:23
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-20 07:50 UTC	1	$400	404	0	+404	Down	+$4	09-20 07:54
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-20 07:55 UTC	1	$400	404	0	+404	Down	+$4	09-20 07:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-20 08:00 UTC	1	$400	406	0	+406	Up	+$6	09-20 08:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	2	$362	370	0	+370	Down	+$8	09-20 08:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	3	$350	372	0	+372	Down	-$350	09-23 17:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	4	$350	385	0	+385	Up	-$40	09-12 14:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	3	$300	379	0	+379	Down	+$79	09-12 15:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	3	$300	309	0	+309	Down	+$9	09-13 06:57
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 09:55 UTC	4	$290	340	0	+340	Down	-$20	09-26 09:59
next fable model 5pt2 released by october 31 2026	1	$260	292	0	+292	open	—	10-14 14:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	2	$250	285	0	+285	Up	+$35	09-23 16:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	3	$250	388	0	+388	Down	+$50	09-12 16:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	3	$250	261	0	+261	Down	-$48	09-12 10:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	3	$250	339	0	+339	Up	+$89	09-12 16:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	4	$250	327	0	+327	Up	+$77	09-12 05:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	3	$250	279	0	+279	Down	+$29	09-13 06:51
Will Gemini Argon be released on October 13, 2026?	2	$237	198	198	+0	Yes	+$117	10-13 09:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	2	$230	301	0	+301	Down	+$26	09-26 10:23
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 10:10 UTC	2	$230	246	0	+246	Up	+$16	09-26 10:13
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 21, 2026?	1	$220	232	0	+232	No	+$12	09-21 16:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-19 11:20 UTC	1	$200	211	0	+211	Up	+$11	09-19 11:24
will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 7 2026	1	$200	1,486	0	+1,486	No	-$200	08-03 09:35
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-19 13:00 UTC	1	$200	210	0	+210	Up	+$10	09-19 13:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-19 12:05 UTC	1	$200	249	0	+249	Up	+$49	09-19 12:07
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-19 13:20 UTC	1	$200	217	0	+217	Down	+$17	09-19 13:21

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-14 14:46:40	next fable model 5pt2 released by october 31 2026	Yes	BUY	292	89¢	$260	0x558803…
10-13 09:05:16	Will Gemini Argon be released on October 13, 2026?	Yes	SELL	198	89¢	$177	0xebe752…
10-11 09:13:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET	Up	BUY	54	92¢	$49	0x001e01…
10-11 08:58:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Down	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0xd1b488…
10-11 08:43:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0xa1863b…
10-11 08:28:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0x07ee7e…
10-11 07:03:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x98cbed…
10-11 06:58:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xbf0114…
10-11 05:59:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x2792d7…
10-11 05:18:54	Ethereum Up or Down - October 11, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Up	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x2a2cb8…
10-11 05:14:02	Ethereum Up or Down - October 11, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x283c25…
10-11 04:58:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET	Up	BUY	50	99¢	$49	0xb06faf…
10-11 04:53:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Up	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x65e2f1…
10-11 04:18:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Up	BUY	50	99¢	$49	0x9fdb34…
10-11 04:18:24	Ethereum Up or Down - October 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Up	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x343b43…
10-11 03:58:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x6ffb19…
10-11 03:48:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Down	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x012d14…
10-11 03:38:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Up	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0xdeaae5…
10-11 03:33:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Up	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0xe1933f…
10-11 03:03:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Down	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0xfdef43…
10-11 02:58:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Down	BUY	51	98¢	$49	0x958d43…
10-11 02:23:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Up	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0xefccf6…
10-11 02:14:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x58e3a2…
10-11 01:28:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Up	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x1554bd…
10-11 01:18:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Up	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x1681c9…
10-11 01:13:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x815a55…
10-11 00:13:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	Up	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x090480…
10-11 00:08:22	Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Up	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x4076a6…
10-10 23:39:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Down	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x5cad3d…
10-10 23:33:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Up	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x2cf0f8…
10-10 23:28:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	Down	BUY	50	99¢	$49	0x634c4b…
10-10 23:14:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET	Down	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x8628f4…
10-10 22:28:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0xaeb8e7…
10-10 22:13:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	51	98¢	$49	0x6a3d49…
10-10 21:59:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0xdb1b50…
10-10 21:28:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0xdf5a87…
10-10 21:14:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0xcfd106…
10-10 20:58:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Down	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0xb94613…
10-10 20:44:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0xaf3917…
10-10 20:38:58	Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0xa23d49…
10-10 20:13:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x97494c…
10-10 18:23:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Down	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x105872…
10-10 18:13:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x9e2c64…
10-10 18:03:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Down	BUY	50	99¢	$49	0x22223e…
10-10 17:53:24	Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Down	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0x7e6366…
10-10 16:43:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0x94e04a…
10-10 15:33:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x05341f…
10-10 15:13:45	Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x9b0fbb…
10-10 14:53:36	Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Up	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0xc00e6f…
10-10 09:44:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x3abe70…
10-10 08:29:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0xdfefb9…
10-10 06:44:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Up	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0xfb1687…
10-10 05:59:25	Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x2f02f0…
10-10 05:28:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Down	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x5e8894…
10-10 01:29:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0xe306f5…
10-09 16:08:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	BUY	44	99¢	$44	0x7f80fa…
10-09 15:58:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0xe87a1f…
10-09 13:33:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Down	BUY	35	99¢	$35	0x70055c…
10-09 13:18:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Up	BUY	35	99¢	$35	0x74ea09…
10-09 10:27:37	Will Gemini Argon be released on October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	198	30¢	$60	0xe646e7…
10-08 17:23:23	Ethereum Up or Down - October 8, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Down	BUY	70	99¢	$69	0x913d00…
10-08 16:38:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	BUY	35	99¢	$35	0xdb896a…
10-08 16:38:44	Ethereum Up or Down - October 8, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	BUY	35	99¢	$35	0xc43d43…
10-08 16:33:50	Ethereum Up or Down - October 8, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Down	BUY	35	99¢	$35	0x5beee5…
10-08 16:33:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Down	BUY	35	99¢	$35	0xa532a4…
10-08 16:18:38	Ethereum Up or Down - October 8, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	BUY	35	99¢	$35	0x1de071…
10-08 13:33:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Down	BUY	35	99¢	$35	0x2168bf…
10-08 08:36:14	Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026?	Yes	SELL	46	50¢	$23	0x616fe8…
10-08 06:33:37	Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026?	Yes	SELL	95	50¢	$48	0x921be7…
10-08 05:18:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Up	BUY	35	99¢	$35	0x173545…
10-08 02:58:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Down	BUY	35	98¢	$35	0x444239…
10-08 01:28:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	70	99¢	$69	0x7eb526…
10-08 00:58:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	70	99¢	$69	0x0520fc…
10-07 19:38:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Down	BUY	70	99¢	$69	0x87b77d…
10-07 16:43:26	Ethereum Up or Down - October 7, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Down	BUY	35	99¢	$35	0x772c6a…
10-07 15:29:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Up	BUY	35	99¢	$35	0x124894…
10-07 14:49:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	35	99¢	$35	0xdd3437…
10-07 14:28:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	35	99¢	$35	0xd42ad0…
10-07 13:53:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Up	BUY	35	99¢	$35	0x634ca8…
10-07 13:38:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	BUY	70	99¢	$69	0xb2723c…
10-07 13:23:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Down	BUY	35	99¢	$35	0xd7ee72…
10-07 11:58:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	35	99¢	$35	0xc5329f…
10-07 11:43:52	Ethereum Up or Down - October 7, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	35	99¢	$35	0x462dd6…
10-07 11:03:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Down	BUY	35	99¢	$35	0x35e8d3…
10-07 11:03:42	Ethereum Up or Down - October 7, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Down	BUY	35	99¢	$35	0x270184…
10-07 08:03:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	BUY	35	98¢	$35	0x61d019…
10-07 03:49:02	Ethereum Up or Down - October 6, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Up	BUY	35	99¢	$35	0x59cb36…
10-07 03:33:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Up	BUY	35	99¢	$35	0x37eea6…
10-07 03:28:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Down	BUY	35	99¢	$35	0x81794e…
10-07 02:59:02	Ethereum Up or Down - October 6, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Down	BUY	35	99¢	$35	0xd8fea8…
10-06 23:43:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	35	98¢	$35	0x874dea…
10-06 23:28:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Down	BUY	35	98¢	$35	0x9449f2…
10-06 23:14:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET	Down	BUY	35	99¢	$35	0xd6d314…
10-06 19:18:32	Ethereum Up or Down - October 6, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Down	BUY	35	98¢	$35	0x51315b…
10-06 18:28:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	35	99¢	$35	0x0f48f5…
10-06 16:56:41	Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	141	36¢	$50	0xed5baa…
10-06 16:54:17	Ethereum Up or Down - October 6, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Down	BUY	35	99¢	$35	0xae1220…
10-06 16:33:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Down	BUY	35	99¢	$35	0xf0837b…
10-06 16:33:35	Ethereum Up or Down - October 6, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Down	BUY	35	98¢	$35	0xb5d30a…
10-06 15:18:35	Ethereum Up or Down - October 6, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Down	BUY	35	99¢	$35	0xb4871c…