Fatherly-Novel — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$17.8K

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

98.7%

Resolved

17,076

Trades

21,752

lifetime

Volume

$1.95M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$90

Open exposure

$54

8 positions

First seen

2026-01-12

last 11-13 21:52

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 275 days

Categories

Other

97% 100% -$17,235

Sports

2% 98% -$425

Crypto

0% 78% -$178

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$11

Politics

0% 33% +$46

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 1185 trades/day

Open positions (8) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on November 13?	No		+10	$10	100¢	$10	+$0	11-13 20:06
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 5°C on November 13?	No		+10	$10	100¢	$10	+$0	11-13 20:04
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on November 13?	No		+10	$10	100¢	$10	+$0	11-13 20:06
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 12°C on November 14?	No		+5	$5	100¢	$5	$0	11-13 17:00
Salamanca CF UDS vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 5.5	Under		+5	$5	100¢	$5	+$0	11-13 22:09
Montevideo City Torque vs. Racing Club Montevideo: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Over		+5	$5	100¢	$5	+$0	11-13 19:59
CD Leganés vs. Burgos CF: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Over		+5	$5	100¢	$5	$0	11-13 20:01
CD Leganés vs. Burgos CF: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Over	—	+5	$5	64¢	$3	-$2	11-13 20:22

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 1?	5	$4.0K	4,008	+4,008	No	+$8	07-31 12:27
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C or below on August 2?	1	$4.0K	4,004	+4,004	No	+$4	08-02 20:50
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 20?	2	$4.0K	4,004	+4,004	No	+$4	08-19 18:27
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 8°C on August 5?	1	$4.0K	4,004	+4,004	No	+$4	08-05 00:28
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 3?	1	$4.0K	4,004	+4,004	No	+$4	08-03 06:02
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 11?	1	$4.0K	4,004	+4,004	No	+$4	08-11 08:06
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on August 3?	1	$4.0K	4,008	+4,008	No	+$8	08-03 20:01
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 27?	2	$4.0K	4,133	+4,133	No	+$133	07-27 04:01
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 7?	1	$4.0K	4,008	+4,008	No	+$8	08-07 00:01
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on August 15?	4	$4.0K	4,007	+4,007	Yes	+$7	08-15 09:06
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on August 5?	4	$4.0K	4,057	+4,057	No	+$57	08-05 05:22
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on August 24?	5	$4.0K	4,016	+4,016	No	+$16	08-23 17:50
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on August 1?	2	$4.0K	4,031	+4,031	No	+$39	07-31 16:34
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on August 3?	3	$4.0K	3,996	+3,996	No	+$5	08-03 11:09
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on August 15?	2	$4.0K	3,994	+3,994	No	+$9	08-15 04:25
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 27?	6	$4.0K	3,955	+3,955	No	+$5	07-27 04:10
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on August 19?	14	$3.9K	3,910	+3,910	No	+$13	08-19 02:51
Will the lowest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on August 21?	2	$3.9K	3,910	+3,910	No	+$39	08-20 21:05
Will the lowest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on August 24?	13	$3.8K	3,900	+3,900	Yes	-$3,795	08-24 17:31
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 2?	1	$3.8K	3,794	+3,794	No	+$9	08-02 05:18
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 29?	2	$3.6K	3,654	+3,654	No	+$7	07-29 04:13
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 14?	4	$3.5K	3,538	+3,538	No	+$4	08-14 20:15
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on July 27?	4	$3.5K	3,488	+3,488	No	+$3	07-27 05:53
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on July 15?	2	$3.5K	3,474	+3,474	No	+$3	07-15 21:08
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 29?	2	$3.5K	3,472	+3,472	No	+$3	07-28 16:06
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on July 22?	7	$3.0K	3,003	+3,003	No	+$3	07-22 00:11
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on August 11?	12	$3.0K	2,984	+2,984	No	+$3	08-11 07:28
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C or below on August 7?	8	$3.0K	2,967	+2,967	No	+$3	08-07 09:23
Will the lowest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on August 22?	5	$3.0K	2,955	+2,955	No	+$4	08-22 10:51
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 30?	4	$2.8K	2,765	+2,765	No	+$4	07-30 07:34

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-13 22:09:57	Salamanca CF UDS vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x46f2f5…
11-13 21:52:45	Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Greece?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x5c2f43…
11-13 21:52:18	Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 North Macedonia?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x864ea0…
11-13 21:38:57	Luxembourg to score first vs. Estonia?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xfacf39…
11-13 21:07:49	Serbia vs. Germany: Germany O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xb4cd99…
11-13 20:45:30	Netherlands vs. Greece: Both Teams to Score in First Half	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x9fdc86…
11-13 20:35:54	Greece to score first vs. Netherlands?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x79ed87…
11-13 20:33:36	Netherlands vs. Greece: 1st Half O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x063376…
11-13 20:33:06	Liechtenstein vs. Azerbaijan: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Under	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xb3786e…
11-13 20:31:13	Netherlands to score first vs. Greece?	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x0f98f2…
11-13 20:30:51	CD Leganés vs. Burgos CF: 1st Half O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x4880bc…
11-13 20:22:31	CD Leganés vs. Burgos CF: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x31a911…
11-13 20:09:07	Montevideo City Torque vs. Racing Club Montevideo: Montevideo City Torque 1st Half O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x7ac7ed…
11-13 20:06:06	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on November 13?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xf33420…
11-13 20:06:03	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on November 13?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x4fc759…
11-13 20:04:33	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 5°C on November 13?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x353b2b…
11-13 20:01:33	CD Leganés vs. Burgos CF: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x218830…
11-13 19:59:07	Montevideo City Torque vs. Racing Club Montevideo: Montevideo City Torque O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x29488c…
11-13 19:59:07	Montevideo City Torque vs. Racing Club Montevideo: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x1f983b…
11-13 19:48:52	Grenada vs. St. Kitts and Nevis: Grenada 1st Half O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xf680ce…
11-13 19:48:46	Grenada vs. St. Kitts and Nevis: Both Teams to Score in First Half	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x4a2fff…
11-13 19:48:45	Grenada vs. St. Kitts and Nevis: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x8487f6…
11-13 19:48:43	Grenada vs. St. Kitts and Nevis: Grenada O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xa14cfd…
11-13 18:01:07	Counter-Strike: Vitality Academy vs Regnum4Games (BO1) - ESEA Advanced Europe Regular Season	Vitality Academy	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x9f5e06…
11-13 17:12:43	Games Total: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x789dfd…
11-13 17:00:39	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 12°C on November 14?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x0ed591…
11-13 16:03:16	Counter-Strike: ex-Zero Tenacity vs BakS eSports (BO3) - CCT Europe Group Stage	ex-Zero Tenacity	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x7656b1…
11-13 15:48:48	Games Total: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x06e4d6…
11-13 15:31:21	Saudi Arabia vs. Korea Republic: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xdbe605…
11-13 15:12:04	Counter-Strike: 6yuBoJlbl vs Drama eSports (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #12 Group C	6yuBoJlbl	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x374ba1…
11-13 15:10:52	Games Total: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0xc8f8dc…
11-13 15:10:49	Map Handicap: 6yuBoJlbl (-1.5) vs Drama eSports (+1.5)	6yuBoJlbl	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x288a0f…
11-13 14:10:45	Valorant: Any Questions Gaming vs Hyper Tide Gaming (BO3) - China National Tournament Split Omega: Pro Division Group B	Any Questions Gaming	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x28d5f1…
11-13 12:56:49	Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Nexus (BO3) - CCT Europe Playoffs	Metizport	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0xa05ec3…
11-13 12:16:37	Valorant: XJG vs Havoc & Yonder (BO3) - China National Tournament Split Omega: Pro Division Group B	Havoc & Yonder	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xfdb917…
11-13 11:21:18	Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs HULIGANI (+1.5)	HULIGANI	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x3b9860…
11-13 10:20:04	Valorant: Qian Xing Gaming vs KeepBest Gaming (BO3) - China National Tournament Split Omega: Pro Division Group A	KeepBest Gaming	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xed93af…
11-13 10:03:37	Valorant: Qian Xing Gaming vs KeepBest Gaming (BO3) - China National Tournament Split Omega: Pro Division Group A	KeepBest Gaming	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xc0ace5…
11-13 08:43:21	Rainbow Six Siege: Falcons Esport vs Geekay Esports (BO3) - BLAST R6 Major Osaka Phase 3 - Playoffs	Falcons Esport	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xd1ccb5…
11-13 07:58:30	Valorant: LGD Gaming vs Young Gaming (BO3) - China National Tournament Split Omega: Pro Division Group B	Young Gaming	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x3e11fd…
11-13 05:36:10	Louisiana vs. Louisiana-Monroe: O/U 55.5	Over	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x9809f9…
11-13 05:24:48	Game Handicap: Liquid (-1.5) vs DarkZero Esports (+1.5)	DarkZero Esports	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x2e3fc1…
11-13 03:30:25	Trae Young: Points O/U 24.5	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x8d107c…
11-13 03:29:55	Spread: Timberwolves (-30.5)	Timberwolves	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x973b71…
11-13 03:19:37	Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 240.5	Under	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xb56fe8…
11-13 03:18:39	Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 225.5	Over	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x571bc6…
11-13 03:18:24	Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 224.5	Over	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x24c95e…
11-13 02:53:28	Pistons vs. Wizards: O/U 243.5	Over	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x432474…
11-13 02:51:07	Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs M80 (BO3) - BLAST R6 Major Osaka Phase 3 - Playoffs	Virtus.pro	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x2d09d9…
11-13 02:50:46	Commanders vs. Giants: 1H O/U 19.5	Under	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xd78343…
11-13 02:43:18	Anthony Davis: Points O/U 19.5	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xfe8e2c…
11-13 02:39:18	Cooper Flagg: Rebounds O/U 3.5	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xb2cecd…
11-13 02:38:55	Anthony Davis: Rebounds O/U 7.5	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xb86342…
11-13 02:31:39	Spread: Raptors (-12.5)	76ers	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xab0104…
11-13 02:26:42	Trae Young: Points O/U 19.5	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x57558c…
11-13 02:24:06	RJ Barrett: Points O/U 22.5	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xb61545…
11-13 02:23:45	Pistons vs. Wizards: O/U 227.5	Over	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x49ae40…
11-13 02:20:39	Pistons vs. Wizards: O/U 219.5	Over	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xb5d9d0…
11-13 02:10:18	Trae Young: Assists O/U 7.5	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xbcad4b…
11-13 01:30:12	Immanuel Quickley: Points O/U 14.5	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x975b26…
11-13 00:58:24	Exact Score: Academia Puerto Cabello 0 - 1 Monagas SC?	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x116c33…
11-13 00:05:13	Aurora FC vs. CSD Mixco: O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x5ddb1f…
11-12 22:35:36	Cayman Islands vs. Guyana: O/U 7.5	Under	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xc100ec…
11-12 21:43:18	Will Cuba win on 2026-11-12?	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x6ae5e6…
11-12 21:20:13	Map Handicap: tt (-1.5) vs Procyon Gaming (+1.5)	Procyon Gaming	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x516ab2…
11-12 21:15:40	Will Calvo Sotelo Puertollano CF win on 2026-10-28?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xe23029…
11-12 21:00:45	Bonaire vs. Cuba: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x297082…
11-12 20:59:06	Barbados vs. Guadeloupe: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x7601b5…
11-12 20:59:06	Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. FK Austria Wien: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Under	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x081bdf…
11-12 20:56:16	Montenegro vs. Latvia: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Under	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x48ff9e…
11-12 20:55:16	Calvo Sotelo Puertollano CF vs. Albacete Balompié: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x3d51aa…
11-12 20:54:04	Calvo Sotelo Puertollano CF vs. Albacete Balompié: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x1d03e2…
11-12 20:50:37	Bonaire vs. Cuba: O/U 8.5	Under	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xfba6fd…
11-12 20:32:42	Cayman Islands leading at halftime?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xa0e8d7…
11-12 20:30:07	Bonaire vs. Cuba: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x5c46b8…
11-12 20:23:12	Counter-Strike: TTG Esports vs OLDBOYS- (BO1) - ESEA Advanced Europe Regular Season	TTG Esports	BUY	45	100¢	$45	0x1811b1…
11-12 20:10:48	Counter-Strike: Balkan Outlaws vs TitanFlow - Map 2 Winner	Balkan Outlaws	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x162139…
11-12 20:06:18	FC Barcelona vs. Arsenal WFC: 1st Half O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xc6873a…
11-12 20:04:36	Cuba leading at halftime?	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x532cb3…
11-12 19:56:40	Chambéry Savoie Football vs. Grenoble Foot 38: Grenoble Foot 38 O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x9c76ae…
11-12 19:54:39	Bonaire vs. Cuba: 1st Half O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x318235…
11-12 19:49:48	Bonaire vs. Cuba: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Under	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x88ec08…
11-12 19:49:22	Bonaire vs. Cuba: Cuba 1st Half O/U 1.5	Under	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xde2f77…
11-12 19:44:30	Exact Score: Lithuania 0 - 1 Suriname?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xed4686…
11-12 19:41:36	CDA Navalcarnero vs. Real Betis Balompié: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Under	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x634ac8…
11-12 19:41:06	Malta vs. Eswatini: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xe4c456…
11-12 19:37:57	Bonaire vs. Cuba: O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xec5ef2…
11-12 19:23:46	Bonaire vs. Cuba: Cuba 1st Half O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xc57098…
11-12 19:23:45	Bonaire vs. Cuba: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x15333a…
11-12 19:23:39	Bonaire vs. Cuba: Cuba O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xf16a9f…
11-12 18:59:00	Counter-Strike: Honvéd vs B8 Academy (BO1) - ESEA Advanced Europe Regular Season	B8 Academy	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x69bba9…
11-12 18:58:51	Armenia vs. Cyprus: Armenia O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xb835bd…
11-12 18:36:21	FC Barcelona vs. Arsenal WFC: 1st Half O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x4cee46…
11-12 18:35:07	Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2?	Under	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x18eb0e…
11-12 17:54:40	Uzbekistan vs. Russia: O/U 6.5	Under	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xd29d30…
11-12 17:24:43	Games Total: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xb866f5…
11-12 17:22:28	Games Total: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x5f237e…
11-12 17:16:18	Games Total: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0xce1d9a…
11-12 17:09:54	Exact Score: Uzbekistan 3 - 4 Russia?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x958d90…
11-12 17:09:03	Will Russia win on 2026-11-12?	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x5ad2a0…