Fatherly-Novel — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$17.8K

Unrealized P&L

-$15

Hit rate

98.7%

Resolved

17,141

Trades

21,813

lifetime

Volume

$1.95M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$89

Open exposure

$46

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-12

last 11-14 15:54

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 276 days

Categories

Other

97% 100% -$17,234

Sports

2% 98% -$424

Crypto

0% 78% -$178

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$11

Politics

0% 33% +$46

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 1185 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Map Handicap: Axorfy Gaming (-1.5) vs Turma do Pagode (+1.5)	Turma do Pagode	—	+31	$31	50¢	$16	-$15	11-14 15:54
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 1°C on November 14?	No		+10	$10	100¢	$10	+$0	11-14 02:14
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 27°C on November 14?	No		+10	$10	100¢	$10	+$0	11-14 15:07
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 4°C on November 14?	No		+10	$10	100¢	$10	$0	11-14 11:01

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 1?	5	$4.0K	4,008	+4,008	No	+$8	07-31 12:27
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C or below on August 2?	1	$4.0K	4,004	+4,004	No	+$4	08-02 20:50
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 20?	2	$4.0K	4,004	+4,004	No	+$4	08-19 18:27
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 8°C on August 5?	1	$4.0K	4,004	+4,004	No	+$4	08-05 00:28
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 3?	1	$4.0K	4,004	+4,004	No	+$4	08-03 06:02
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 11?	1	$4.0K	4,004	+4,004	No	+$4	08-11 08:06
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on August 3?	1	$4.0K	4,008	+4,008	No	+$8	08-03 20:01
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 27?	2	$4.0K	4,133	+4,133	No	+$133	07-27 04:01
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 7?	1	$4.0K	4,008	+4,008	No	+$8	08-07 00:01
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on August 15?	4	$4.0K	4,007	+4,007	Yes	+$7	08-15 09:06
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on August 5?	4	$4.0K	4,057	+4,057	No	+$57	08-05 05:22
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on August 24?	5	$4.0K	4,016	+4,016	No	+$16	08-23 17:50
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on August 1?	2	$4.0K	4,031	+4,031	No	+$39	07-31 16:34
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on August 3?	3	$4.0K	3,996	+3,996	No	+$5	08-03 11:09
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on August 15?	2	$4.0K	3,994	+3,994	No	+$9	08-15 04:25
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 27?	6	$4.0K	3,955	+3,955	No	+$5	07-27 04:10
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on August 19?	14	$3.9K	3,910	+3,910	No	+$13	08-19 02:51
Will the lowest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on August 21?	2	$3.9K	3,910	+3,910	No	+$39	08-20 21:05
Will the lowest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on August 24?	13	$3.8K	3,900	+3,900	Yes	-$3,795	08-24 17:31
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 2?	1	$3.8K	3,794	+3,794	No	+$9	08-02 05:18
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 29?	2	$3.6K	3,654	+3,654	No	+$7	07-29 04:13
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 14?	4	$3.5K	3,538	+3,538	No	+$4	08-14 20:15
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on July 27?	4	$3.5K	3,488	+3,488	No	+$3	07-27 05:53
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on July 15?	2	$3.5K	3,474	+3,474	No	+$3	07-15 21:08
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 29?	2	$3.5K	3,472	+3,472	No	+$3	07-28 16:06
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on July 22?	7	$3.0K	3,003	+3,003	No	+$3	07-22 00:11
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on August 11?	12	$3.0K	2,984	+2,984	No	+$3	08-11 07:28
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C or below on August 7?	8	$3.0K	2,967	+2,967	No	+$3	08-07 09:23
Will the lowest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on August 22?	5	$3.0K	2,955	+2,955	No	+$4	08-22 10:51
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 30?	4	$2.8K	2,765	+2,765	No	+$4	07-30 07:34

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-14 15:54:20	Map Handicap: Axorfy Gaming (-1.5) vs Turma do Pagode (+1.5)	Turma do Pagode	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0xe7557a…
11-14 15:45:02	Will Crystal Palace win on 2026-11-14?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x8e3149…
11-14 15:35:04	Exact Score: FC Balagne 0 - 1 Montpellier HSC?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x273efa…
11-14 15:07:43	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 27°C on November 14?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x982437…
11-14 14:29:47	Manchester United WFC vs. Crystal Palace: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x3af6f0…
11-14 12:13:34	Games Total: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xf4d858…
11-14 11:01:02	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 4°C on November 14?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x3961a3…
11-14 09:50:11	Will Cook Islands win on 2026-11-14?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x0f362c…
11-14 08:32:01	Tahiti vs. Cook Islands: Both Teams to Score	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x2d5163…
11-14 08:30:44	Tahiti vs. Cook Islands: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x8c8c81…
11-14 08:30:28	Tahiti vs. Cook Islands: O/U 7.5	Under	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x86a216…
11-14 08:30:22	Tahiti vs. Cook Islands: O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xc9e70a…
11-14 08:30:17	Spread: Cook Islands (-4.5)	Tahiti	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xbb72ca…
11-14 08:30:14	Spread: Cook Islands (-2.5)	Tahiti	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x96109f…
11-14 08:30:10	Spread: Cook Islands (-1.5)	Tahiti	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x4ea7e8…
11-14 08:30:08	Spread: Tahiti (-1.5)	Tahiti	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x94bd40…
11-14 08:29:52	Will Tahiti vs. Cook Islands end in a draw?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xdadeb9…
11-14 08:29:44	Will Tahiti win on 2026-11-14?	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x44fd7f…
11-14 07:18:53	Valorant: KeepBest Gaming vs LNG Esports (BO3) - China National Tournament Split Omega: Pro Division Group A	KeepBest Gaming	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x8894ce…
11-14 06:45:20	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 4°C on November 14?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x833e8a…
11-14 06:37:29	Houston vs. Colorado: 4Q O/U 7.5	Over	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xa607c0…
11-14 06:06:37	Isaiah Hartenstein: Rebounds O/U 9.5	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xd60b1b…
11-14 06:06:28	Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 33.5	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x740040…
11-14 05:55:20	Darius Garland: Points O/U 19.5	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x00453c…
11-14 05:53:50	Houston vs. Colorado: O/U 51.5	Over	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x998d73…
11-14 05:42:10	Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 31.5	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x95d6e4…
11-14 05:25:22	Keegan Murray: Rebounds O/U 3.5	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xde7ebb…
11-14 05:22:40	Deni Avdija: Points O/U 29.5	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x675fb2…
11-14 05:15:37	Spread: Spurs (-34.5)	Spurs	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x9172b9…
11-14 05:12:46	Deni Avdija: Points O/U 23.5	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xe8d26b…
11-14 05:03:41	Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 9.5	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x375ced…
11-14 05:03:23	Warriors vs. Spurs: O/U 206.5	Over	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xc76347…
11-14 04:17:49	Aday Mara: Blocks O/U 1.5	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xd6c608…
11-14 03:55:13	Guatemala vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xe7e250…
11-14 03:50:07	Jazz vs. Rockets: O/U 204.5	Over	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x15ada5…
11-14 03:42:28	Jeremiah Fears: Assists O/U 5.5	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xea82c6…
11-14 03:28:53	Cavaliers vs. Heat: O/U 233.5	Over	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xc43869…
11-14 03:28:08	Hawks vs. Bulls: O/U 214.5	Over	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x36d8bd…
11-14 03:18:56	Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 5.5	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x0b2e7b…
11-14 03:16:02	CJ McCollum: Points O/U 14.5	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x305b5d…
11-14 02:51:38	Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 11.5	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xab5797…
11-14 02:50:02	Spread: Knicks (-10.5)	Pacers	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x96fd8c…
11-14 02:49:59	Spread: Pacers (-2.5)	Knicks	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xe44e9a…
11-14 02:46:41	Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 12.5	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x0b4061…
11-14 02:46:29	Karl-Anthony Towns: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x96c342…
11-14 02:41:25	Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 19.5	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xbb032c…
11-14 02:39:07	Bucks vs. Magic: O/U 204.5	Over	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x661f55…
11-14 02:38:14	Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 29.5	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x1a0dfd…
11-14 02:34:40	Spread: Magic (-9.5)	Bucks	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x6340ae…
11-14 02:32:43	Knicks vs. Pacers: O/U 202.5	Over	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xd4fa34…
11-14 02:26:08	Bucks vs. Magic: O/U 194.5	Over	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x36143d…
11-14 02:14:44	Josh Giddey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x30c03e…
11-14 02:14:43	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 1°C on November 14?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x710b8a…
11-14 02:07:08	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on November 14?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xc33aca…
11-14 02:05:58	Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 24.5	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x61fc54…
11-14 02:03:11	Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 25.5	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x849ab9…
11-14 01:48:35	Myles Turner: Points O/U 9.5	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x928181…
11-14 01:44:08	Mikal Bridges: Points O/U 8.5	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xffa57f…
11-14 00:57:12	Will the lowest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on November 13?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x5a36ad…
11-14 00:37:01	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 1°C on November 14?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xa79b1b…
11-13 22:09:57	Salamanca CF UDS vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x46f2f5…
11-13 21:52:45	Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Greece?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x5c2f43…
11-13 21:52:18	Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 North Macedonia?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x864ea0…
11-13 21:38:57	Luxembourg to score first vs. Estonia?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xfacf39…
11-13 21:07:49	Serbia vs. Germany: Germany O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xb4cd99…
11-13 20:45:30	Netherlands vs. Greece: Both Teams to Score in First Half	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x9fdc86…
11-13 20:35:54	Greece to score first vs. Netherlands?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x79ed87…
11-13 20:33:36	Netherlands vs. Greece: 1st Half O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x063376…
11-13 20:33:06	Liechtenstein vs. Azerbaijan: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Under	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xb3786e…
11-13 20:31:13	Netherlands to score first vs. Greece?	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x0f98f2…
11-13 20:30:51	CD Leganés vs. Burgos CF: 1st Half O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x4880bc…
11-13 20:22:31	CD Leganés vs. Burgos CF: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x31a911…
11-13 20:09:07	Montevideo City Torque vs. Racing Club Montevideo: Montevideo City Torque 1st Half O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x7ac7ed…
11-13 20:06:06	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on November 13?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xf33420…
11-13 20:06:03	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on November 13?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x4fc759…
11-13 20:04:33	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 5°C on November 13?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x353b2b…
11-13 20:01:33	CD Leganés vs. Burgos CF: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x218830…
11-13 19:59:07	Montevideo City Torque vs. Racing Club Montevideo: Montevideo City Torque O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x29488c…
11-13 19:59:07	Montevideo City Torque vs. Racing Club Montevideo: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x1f983b…
11-13 19:48:52	Grenada vs. St. Kitts and Nevis: Grenada 1st Half O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xf680ce…
11-13 19:48:46	Grenada vs. St. Kitts and Nevis: Both Teams to Score in First Half	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x4a2fff…
11-13 19:48:45	Grenada vs. St. Kitts and Nevis: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x8487f6…
11-13 19:48:43	Grenada vs. St. Kitts and Nevis: Grenada O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xa14cfd…
11-13 18:01:07	Counter-Strike: Vitality Academy vs Regnum4Games (BO1) - ESEA Advanced Europe Regular Season	Vitality Academy	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x9f5e06…
11-13 17:12:43	Games Total: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x789dfd…
11-13 17:00:39	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 12°C on November 14?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x0ed591…
11-13 16:03:16	Counter-Strike: ex-Zero Tenacity vs BakS eSports (BO3) - CCT Europe Group Stage	ex-Zero Tenacity	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x7656b1…
11-13 15:48:48	Games Total: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x06e4d6…
11-13 15:31:21	Saudi Arabia vs. Korea Republic: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xdbe605…
11-13 15:12:04	Counter-Strike: 6yuBoJlbl vs Drama eSports (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #12 Group C	6yuBoJlbl	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x374ba1…
11-13 15:10:52	Games Total: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0xc8f8dc…
11-13 15:10:49	Map Handicap: 6yuBoJlbl (-1.5) vs Drama eSports (+1.5)	6yuBoJlbl	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x288a0f…
11-13 14:10:45	Valorant: Any Questions Gaming vs Hyper Tide Gaming (BO3) - China National Tournament Split Omega: Pro Division Group B	Any Questions Gaming	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x28d5f1…
11-13 12:56:49	Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Nexus (BO3) - CCT Europe Playoffs	Metizport	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0xa05ec3…
11-13 12:16:37	Valorant: XJG vs Havoc & Yonder (BO3) - China National Tournament Split Omega: Pro Division Group B	Havoc & Yonder	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xfdb917…
11-13 11:21:18	Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs HULIGANI (+1.5)	HULIGANI	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x3b9860…
11-13 10:20:04	Valorant: Qian Xing Gaming vs KeepBest Gaming (BO3) - China National Tournament Split Omega: Pro Division Group A	KeepBest Gaming	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xed93af…
11-13 10:03:37	Valorant: Qian Xing Gaming vs KeepBest Gaming (BO3) - China National Tournament Split Omega: Pro Division Group A	KeepBest Gaming	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xc0ace5…
11-13 08:43:21	Rainbow Six Siege: Falcons Esport vs Geekay Esports (BO3) - BLAST R6 Major Osaka Phase 3 - Playoffs	Falcons Esport	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xd1ccb5…
11-13 07:58:30	Valorant: LGD Gaming vs Young Gaming (BO3) - China National Tournament Split Omega: Pro Division Group B	Young Gaming	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x3e11fd…