Pointed-Confirmation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$102

Unrealized P&L

+$33

Hit rate

32.5%

Resolved

Trades

109

lifetime

Volume

$2.66K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$24

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-04

last 09-07 21:13

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 22 days

Categories

Politics

92% 17% -$108

Other

8% 57% +$10

Crypto

0% 0% -$4

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?	Yes		-437	-$39	2¢	$-7	+$33	05-07 21:43

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	5	$492	724	724	+0	Yes	-$14	02-16 05:50
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	4	$419	244	244	+0	Yes	+$19	02-28 07:05
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?	2	$391	414	414	+0	Yes	-$6	02-21 21:54
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	3	$324	1,251	1,251	+0	No	+$74	02-21 21:08
us strikes iran by february 22 2026	4	$322	11,993	11,993	+0	No	-$98	02-23 03:02
Iran leadership change by June 30?	8	$133	1,868	1,868	+0	No	-$49	06-12 21:23
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	7	$81	2,306	2,306	+0	open	—	09-07 21:12
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	4	$72	204	204	+0	Yes	-$5	02-28 07:11
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	9	$69	251	251	+0	No	-$3	05-24 04:36
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	2	$60	121	121	+0	Yes	-$2	06-14 22:08
will the us next strike iran on january 31 2026 et 836	2	$52	497	497	+0	No	-$5	01-31 04:12
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	6	$49	92	92	+0	open	—	05-23 09:05
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?	1	$39	0	437	-437	open	—	05-07 21:43
us strikes iran by february 1 2026	2	$33	214	214	+0	No	-$13	02-01 01:46
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw?	2	$21	20	20	+0	Yes	+$19	06-13 22:41
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	3	$16	57	57	+0	No	+$1	01-07 15:34
Iran leadership change by September 30?	3	$16	71	71	+0	No	-$4	08-24 21:56
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	4	$11	125	125	+0	No	-$4	05-24 04:36
Zohran Mamdani out as mayor of NYC before 2027?	2	$7	77	77	+0	open	—	08-26 15:02
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	3	$5	4	4	+0	Yes	+$1	06-15 17:53
Iran leadership change by August 31?	2	$5	66	66	+0	No	-$4	08-24 21:57
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	1	$4	1,263	0	+1,263	No	-$4	06-03 23:21
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco?	2	$3	20	20	+0	No	+$1	06-13 22:37
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Morocco?	2	$2	14	14	+0	No	+$0	06-13 22:31
fifwc prt cdr 2026 06 17 total 1pt5	2	$2	1	1	+0	Over	+$0	06-17 18:51
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	2	$2	9	9	+0	No	+$0	06-16 23:34
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco?	2	$2	8	8	+0	Yes	+$0	06-13 22:38
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	1	$2	3	0	+3	Yes	+$1	06-22 16:55
fifwc qat che 2026 06 13 total 1pt5	1	$2	2	0	+2	Over	+$0	06-13 19:28
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	1	$2	2	0	+2	No	-$2	06-13 19:21

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-07 21:13:15	Trump out as President by September 30?	Yes	BUY	169	1¢	$2	0xee777d…
09-07 21:12:43	Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	443	0¢	$2	0x2b33f4…
08-26 15:02:52	Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	443	1¢	$3	0x645ada…
08-26 15:02:16	Zohran Mamdani out as mayor of NYC before 2027?	Yes	SELL	77	4¢	$3	0xd2d0fc…
08-24 21:57:52	Zohran Mamdani out as mayor of NYC before 2027?	Yes	BUY	77	5¢	$4	0x485c8b…
08-24 21:57:07	Iran leadership change by August 31?	Yes	SELL	66	0¢	$0	0x778c58…
08-24 21:56:46	Iran leadership change by September 30?	Yes	SELL	35	3¢	$1	0x5ac863…
08-24 21:56:42	Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	513	1¢	$3	0x27b68f…
08-07 14:37:55	iran leadership change by august 31 669 893	Yes	BUY	66	7¢	$5	0x53ed34…
08-07 14:37:34	iran leadership change by september 30 20260629144005163 739 824	Yes	SELL	35	13¢	$5	0x62a2ba…
08-07 14:30:01	iran leadership change by september 30 20260629144005163 739 824	Yes	BUY	71	14¢	$10	0xe795d5…
06-23 16:05:31	Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	513	5¢	$26	0x6b9298…
06-23 00:49:01	Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x5d87cc…
06-22 16:55:14	Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0x5dc694…
06-21 02:17:05	Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0xa75df2…
06-19 19:19:50	Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x5b27fa…
06-19 01:16:13	Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x9497d3…
06-18 00:25:14	Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	648	2¢	$10	0x39e788…
06-18 00:23:01	Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	702	2¢	$12	0xb841a7…
06-17 22:21:49	Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,351	2¢	$26	0x11005e…
06-17 21:17:44	fifwc eng hrv 2026 06 17 total 5pt5	Over	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xbfc648…
06-17 20:59:47	Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x9e1169…
06-17 18:51:56	fifwc prt cdr 2026 06 17 total 1pt5	Over	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xab9f87…
06-17 17:53:07	Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x5fdbf1…
06-17 17:45:05	fifwc prt cdr 2026 06 17 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x55d4e8…
06-16 23:58:28	Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x26ab18…
06-16 23:34:43	Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	9	12¢	$1	0xed05a8…
06-16 23:02:40	fifwc irq nor 2026 06 16 goals alexander srloth gte1	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x369d09…
06-16 22:58:19	fifwc irq nor 2026 06 16 assists alexander srloth gte1	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x986c98…
06-16 22:49:04	Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x02188d…
06-15 17:53:33	Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	4	80¢	$3	0x351b53…
06-15 17:51:39	Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x0d96ea…
06-15 17:50:36	Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	SELL	3	26¢	$1	0x64fab1…
06-15 17:48:15	Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xb0e4c1…
06-15 17:40:58	Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x3f090a…
06-14 22:08:25	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	121	24¢	$29	0xe6e65c…
06-14 22:00:27	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	121	26¢	$31	0xfc4cc1…
06-13 22:41:40	Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x2c54b0…
06-13 22:40:36	Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco?	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x02621c…
06-13 22:38:03	Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco?	Yes	SELL	8	14¢	$1	0x4ef467…
06-13 22:37:40	Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco?	Yes	SELL	20	10¢	$2	0xbfa10f…
06-13 22:31:37	Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Morocco?	Yes	SELL	14	10¢	$1	0xdbed89…
06-13 21:50:01	Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco?	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x1f9d03…
06-13 21:31:03	Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xe20eeb…
06-13 21:30:49	Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Morocco?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xf71bc6…
06-13 21:27:57	Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco?	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x047735…
06-13 20:05:36	Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?	Yes	SELL	62	1¢	$1	0xc70b26…
06-13 19:36:51	Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x8de6aa…
06-13 19:36:43	Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?	Yes	BUY	62	2¢	$1	0x94490a…
06-13 19:28:09	fifwc qat che 2026 06 13 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0xa42547…
06-13 19:21:30	Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Yes	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0x43cbaf…
06-12 21:23:39	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1,129	1¢	$15	0x8dfa13…
06-10 17:17:58	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	BUY	237	5¢	$12	0xc648b5…
06-10 17:15:28	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	BUY	104	5¢	$5	0xfc2968…
06-10 17:10:30	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	BUY	208	5¢	$10	0xb0176f…
06-09 21:13:46	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	BUY	580	5¢	$27	0xf9a267…
06-09 12:49:39	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	739	4¢	$27	0x352f2c…
06-07 20:28:49	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	BUY	102	9¢	$9	0xfc1227…
06-07 18:57:19	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	BUY	637	4¢	$28	0xbe1050…
06-03 23:21:51	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,263	0¢	$4	0x15e3f7…
05-24 04:36:38	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	Yes	SELL	221	13¢	$29	0x76d9f3…
05-24 04:36:20	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	SELL	125	3¢	$3	0x90353b…
05-23 09:06:24	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	66	17¢	$11	0x092e08…
05-23 09:05:53	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Yes	SELL	40	28¢	$11	0x780a42…
05-16 07:56:08	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	60	6¢	$4	0x95c1f4…
05-16 07:55:49	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	Yes	SELL	30	12¢	$4	0x532e10…
05-16 07:53:33	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	18	13¢	$2	0xd62d51…
05-16 07:53:12	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Yes	SELL	9	26¢	$2	0xcd8c92…
05-16 07:52:16	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	27	13¢	$3	0xad256d…
05-16 07:51:58	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Yes	SELL	13	26¢	$3	0xec0cb3…
05-16 07:51:23	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	43	6¢	$3	0xc98aca…
05-16 07:51:02	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Yes	SELL	10	26¢	$3	0x11d297…
05-16 00:05:44	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	41	13¢	$5	0xf0213f…
05-16 00:05:22	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Yes	SELL	20	25¢	$5	0xcd587c…
05-07 22:37:20	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Yes	BUY	92	26¢	$24	0x5eef4b…
05-07 22:36:01	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	21	7¢	$1	0x3ceb9f…
05-07 22:32:40	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	12	13¢	$1	0xd41aea…
05-07 21:57:43	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	16	12¢	$2	0x0fc5d1…
05-07 21:49:46	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	72	14¢	$10	0xf7fb30…
05-07 21:43:43	US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?	Yes	SELL	437	9¢	$39	0x07f6f1…
02-28 07:11:25	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	Yes	SELL	52	9¢	$5	0x4add0c…
02-28 07:05:05	us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	Yes	SELL	117	97¢	$114	0x9846c2…
02-28 06:50:03	us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	Yes	BUY	117	90¢	$105	0xe83ecd…
02-28 06:36:31	us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	Yes	SELL	127	83¢	$105	0xaeda8a…
02-28 06:34:29	us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	Yes	BUY	127	75¢	$95	0x47127f…
02-23 03:02:48	us strikes iran by february 22 2026	Yes	SELL	6,111	0¢	$12	0xc36e2c…
02-22 16:14:16	us strikes iran by february 22 2026	Yes	BUY	6,111	2¢	$110	0x4cafb8…
02-22 14:05:50	us strikes iran by february 22 2026	Yes	SELL	5,882	2¢	$100	0x1a8853…
02-22 12:32:44	us strikes iran by february 22 2026	Yes	BUY	5,882	2¢	$100	0x42af80…
02-21 21:54:22	US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	414	47¢	$193	0xbdd628…
02-21 21:13:30	US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	414	48¢	$199	0xe8e8fb…
02-21 21:08:16	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	SELL	625	16¢	$99	0x61fc26…
02-21 21:07:54	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	SELL	625	16¢	$100	0x099743…
02-16 05:51:45	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	1,251	10¢	$125	0x963351…
02-16 05:50:53	US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	368	34¢	$125	0xac0409…
02-14 00:08:47	US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	368	31¢	$114	0x5211d1…
02-13 00:45:53	US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	356	32¢	$114	0xa1f488…
02-07 23:19:51	US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	39¢	$39	0x1068ac…
02-07 23:19:31	US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	256	39¢	$100	0x6bed4d…
02-01 01:48:06	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	Yes	BUY	52	19¢	$10	0x7813f5…