Probable-Awe — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$15.4K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

47.7%

Resolved

361

Trades

2,649

lifetime

Volume

$110.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$42

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-28 02:20

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 75 days

Categories

Sports

71% 44% -$13,163

Crypto

16% 42% -$1,772

Other

9% 50% -$950

Politics

4% 33% +$531

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

21 active days in 12wk • peak 105 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
nba phx phi 2026 01 20	127	$8.5K	12,964	8,319	+4,645	Suns	-$935	01-21 01:40
Thunder vs. Spurs	25	$6.1K	8,462	8,462	+0	Thunder	-$2,510	05-23 03:16
nba hou phi 2026 01 22	34	$3.9K	5,925	1,000	+4,925	76ers	-$2,130	01-23 02:12
Spread: Knicks (-5.5)	10	$3.2K	3,576	1,494	+2,082	Knicks	+$1,809	05-22 02:37
nba sas hou 2026 01 20	66	$3.1K	5,150	5,800	-650	Rockets	-$1,268	01-21 03:05
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-02?	15	$2.9K	2,220	2,220	+0	Yes	+$406	05-02 12:45
Pistons vs. Magic	31	$2.8K	3,775	4,100	-325	Pistons	+$311	05-02 01:26
nba orl sas 2026 02 01	23	$2.7K	1,805	1,805	+0	Spurs	+$669	02-02 04:26
us strikes iran by january 14 2026 913	9	$2.6K	1,670	1,670	+0	No	+$617	01-15 02:22
Knicks vs. Celtics	54	$2.2K	2,789	2,789	+0	Celtics	-$2	10-24 01:41
Madrid Open: Mirra Andreeva vs Marta Kostyuk	15	$2.2K	1,450	1,450	+0	Marta Kostyuk	+$391	05-02 17:24
nba nyk ind 2026 03 13 spread away 12pt5	3	$2.0K	3,850	0	+3,850	Pacers	-$2,014	03-13 22:00
nba sas gsw 2026 04 01	14	$2.0K	1,099	1,099	+0	Spurs	+$43	04-02 02:43
nba lal den 2026 01 20	4	$1.9K	4,530	0	+4,530	Lakers	-$1,878	01-21 03:12
Spread: Celtics (-7.5)	18	$1.7K	1,800	1,800	+0	76ers	-$18	05-02 16:59
nba okc lac 2026 04 08 spread away 6pt5	7	$1.6K	1,047	1,034	+13	Thunder	+$449	04-09 04:20
nba phx cha 2026 04 02	14	$1.6K	1,198	1,181	+17	Hornets	+$383	04-03 00:27
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Angels	24	$1.6K	1,141	988	+153	New York Mets	+$217	05-02 04:10
Golden Knights vs. Utah	21	$1.5K	884	884	+0	Golden Knights	+$169	05-02 04:41
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	8	$1.5K	1,981	1,981	+0	Yes	-$86	04-04 22:50
nba den was 2026 01 22	33	$1.4K	1,000	1,000	+0	Nuggets	+$5	01-23 00:48
Rockets vs. Spurs	20	$1.4K	1,387	1,387	+0	Rockets	-$126	10-24 04:07
Brazil to score first vs. Japan?	1	$1.4K	2,201	0	+2,201	No	-$1,387	06-29 15:41
mlb stl nym 2026 06 11	30	$1.3K	932	932	+0	New York Mets	+$251	06-11 19:31
nba chi bkn 2026 01 16	10	$1.1K	2,236	0	+2,236	Nets	-$1,095	01-16 22:38
ufc jus3 ili1 2026 06 14 totals 1pt5	9	$1.1K	711	711	+0	Over	+$355	06-15 05:20
nba hou lal 2026 04 21	9	$1.0K	1,716	600	+1,116	Lakers	+$943	04-22 05:39
nba sas bkn 2026 02 26 spread away 10pt5	8	$989	690	690	+0	Spurs	+$285	02-27 02:34
nba bkn nop 2026 01 14	8	$950	1,900	0	+1,900	Pelicans	-$950	01-15 02:23
nba lac gsw 2026 03 02	12	$911	621	621	+0	Clippers	+$265	03-03 05:30

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 02:20:17	Nets vs. Celtics	Nets	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0xbb8951…
10-26 20:34:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xa2c46c…
10-26 20:34:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xcacc68…
10-26 20:34:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	13	51¢	$7	0xaf6792…
10-26 20:34:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x0e040f…
10-26 20:33:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	3	51¢	$1	0xda2be9…
10-26 20:33:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	30	51¢	$15	0x65a5a7…
10-26 20:33:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0x3a8398…
10-26 20:33:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x0b0941…
10-26 20:33:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xbae694…
10-26 20:33:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0xad4b67…
10-26 20:33:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xf3ecf7…
10-26 20:33:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x3e210b…
10-26 20:33:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x3e0ffb…
10-26 20:33:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xda52df…
10-26 20:33:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xb6f8bd…
10-26 20:33:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x43b96b…
10-26 20:32:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xdcbfe5…
10-26 20:32:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xda7057…
10-26 20:32:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x7c17dc…
10-26 20:32:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x6e5782…
10-26 20:32:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xcd43ae…
10-26 20:32:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x8ebbdd…
10-26 20:32:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	111	51¢	$57	0x2f3abf…
10-26 20:26:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	80	27¢	$22	0xcbcf96…
10-26 20:21:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Up	SELL	50	77¢	$38	0x91507e…
10-26 20:20:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Up	BUY	100	32¢	$32	0x09a8b0…
10-26 20:18:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xb23d27…
10-26 20:18:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x363e7a…
10-26 20:18:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	BUY	28	50¢	$14	0xc178d1…
10-26 20:18:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	BUY	15	50¢	$7	0x7b58c9…
10-26 20:17:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	SELL	38	66¢	$25	0xf6b785…
10-26 20:17:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	SELL	12	66¢	$8	0x525007…
10-26 20:16:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	SELL	35	49¢	$17	0xe76d36…
10-26 20:16:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	SELL	0	49¢	$0	0xa95c1c…
10-26 20:16:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	SELL	15	49¢	$7	0x9d8440…
10-26 20:15:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	BUY	98	33¢	$33	0xe84758…
10-26 20:15:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	BUY	1	33¢	$0	0xca8d39…
10-26 20:14:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0xc8d829…
10-26 20:14:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0xc302db…
10-26 20:14:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0x734b96…
10-26 20:14:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	SELL	12	96¢	$11	0x3c7885…
10-26 20:14:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	SELL	21	96¢	$20	0xe08a1f…
10-26 20:14:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	SELL	15	86¢	$13	0x15c736…
10-26 20:11:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	60	31¢	$19	0xc2818a…
10-26 20:04:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	BUY	43	50¢	$22	0x5df88d…
10-26 20:03:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	BUY	32	50¢	$16	0xa9a748…
10-26 20:02:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	BUY	43	50¢	$21	0xc6e84b…
10-26 20:00:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Up	BUY	200	33¢	$66	0x609fab…
10-26 19:56:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	40	18¢	$7	0xca61e8…
10-26 19:53:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Up	SELL	1	55¢	$0	0xcc9751…
10-26 19:53:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Up	SELL	5	55¢	$3	0xad39cf…
10-26 19:53:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Up	SELL	10	55¢	$6	0x115738…
10-26 19:50:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Up	BUY	175	30¢	$52	0x9c9ca0…
10-26 19:48:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Up	BUY	13	50¢	$7	0xfa1867…
10-26 19:48:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Up	BUY	12	50¢	$6	0xb00655…
10-26 19:48:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Up	BUY	31	50¢	$15	0xad0634…
10-26 19:48:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x560616…
10-26 19:48:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Up	BUY	22	50¢	$11	0x4ff545…
10-26 19:39:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Up	BUY	40	50¢	$20	0x492d76…
10-26 19:38:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Down	SELL	4	7¢	$0	0xfdf9eb…
10-26 19:38:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Down	SELL	11	7¢	$1	0xf4a34b…
10-26 19:37:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Down	BUY	0	15¢	$0	0x73c960…
10-26 19:37:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Down	BUY	10	15¢	$1	0xf75849…
10-26 19:37:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	15¢	$1	0x40aa0f…
10-26 19:34:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Up	SELL	18	82¢	$15	0x4194b1…
10-26 19:33:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Up	SELL	14	67¢	$10	0x4df0eb…
10-26 19:33:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Up	SELL	4	67¢	$3	0xe6ad6c…
10-26 19:33:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Up	SELL	21	50¢	$10	0xa5f3c6…
10-26 19:33:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Up	SELL	16	50¢	$8	0x3a766a…
10-26 19:30:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Up	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0x1e0d7a…
10-26 19:29:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Up	BUY	24	42¢	$10	0xc05c29…
10-26 19:27:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	20	34¢	$7	0x7635b9…
10-26 19:24:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x87c96c…
10-26 19:21:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x781ae9…
10-26 19:20:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	BUY	10	41¢	$4	0x576a96…
10-26 19:14:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Up	BUY	50	52¢	$26	0x244e03…
10-26 19:09:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	SELL	27	84¢	$23	0xdf2428…
10-26 19:09:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	SELL	6	84¢	$5	0x5b3465…
10-26 19:09:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	SELL	5	84¢	$4	0xe1f7ae…
10-26 19:09:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	SELL	1	84¢	$1	0x9dc2a9…
10-26 19:09:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	SELL	6	84¢	$5	0x30b38a…
10-26 19:09:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	SELL	5	84¢	$4	0x19f078…
10-26 19:08:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	BUY	13	42¢	$5	0xdd8e61…
10-26 19:08:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	BUY	37	42¢	$16	0xb10c58…
10-26 19:07:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	SELL	50	55¢	$27	0xc5052c…
10-26 19:05:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x9c0894…
10-26 19:05:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	BUY	46	55¢	$26	0x8b2e0b…
10-26 19:05:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	BUY	1	55¢	$1	0x29f115…
10-26 19:02:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Up	SELL	5	21¢	$1	0xfe8930…
10-26 19:02:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Up	SELL	84	21¢	$18	0xa3bb2e…
10-26 19:02:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Up	SELL	5	21¢	$1	0xa20fbf…
10-26 19:02:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Up	SELL	30	21¢	$6	0x902527…
10-26 19:02:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Up	SELL	19	21¢	$4	0x663ab1…
10-26 19:02:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Up	SELL	0	21¢	$0	0x0d5768…
10-26 19:00:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Up	BUY	143	7¢	$10	0xd65c75…
10-26 18:54:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	50	51¢	$26	0x4fc558…
10-25 20:56:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Up	BUY	7	51¢	$3	0x3fd906…
10-24 06:07:39	Pan Pacific Open, Qualification: Liudmila Samsonova vs Heather Watson	Liudmila Samsonova	BUY	80	49¢	$39	0xa54fc5…
10-24 05:44:17	Pan Pacific Open, Qualification: Liudmila Samsonova vs Heather Watson	Liudmila Samsonova	BUY	82	53¢	$43	0x0186ff…