Raw-Complaint — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1.21K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

84.0%

Resolved

306

Trades

1,653

lifetime

Volume

$115.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$70

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-02

last 10-26 23:26

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 66 days

Categories

Other

57% 44% -$291

Politics

23% 68% -$2,116

Tech

17% 100% +$3,618

Sports

3% 33% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

41 active days in 12wk • peak 481 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Fatima Shaban win the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election?	16	$11.4K	7,439	5,603	+1,836	Yes	+$291	09-04 01:07
us strike on somalia by february 7 553	76	$10.7K	5,867	6,885	-1,018	No	+$354	02-10 09:39
yabloko effectively banned from 2026 russian elections by september 17 20260807161302974	22	$6.8K	4,659	2,282	+2,377	Yes	+$68	08-13 02:14
will japans january 2026 unemployment rate be 2pt7	23	$6.2K	3,489	3,489	+0	Yes	+$36	03-03 02:55
us x iran meeting by february 6 2026	59	$5.7K	3,524	3,524	+0	Yes	+$397	02-08 15:25
chatgpt outage by march 31	1	$5.5K	6,108	0	+6,108	Yes	+$642	03-17 18:20
will google have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	16	$4.6K	2,549	2,549	+0	No	-$136	02-06 03:13
will turnout in the 2025 honduran general election be between 60 and 65	91	$3.9K	0	15,173	-15,173	Yes	-$3,685	02-04 20:41
chatgpt outage by february 28	6	$3.7K	4,046	10	+4,036	Yes	+$295	02-26 14:06
will chatgpt be out as the 1 free app in the us apple store by february 22	4	$3.1K	3,258	0	+3,258	Yes	+$130	02-19 05:04
Will no Atlantic hurricane form in August 2026?	16	$3.0K	3,220	119	+3,101	Yes	+$346	08-30 16:15
will super bowl lx have between 124m and 128m viewers	1	$2.6K	2,587	0	+2,587	Yes	+$3	02-11 00:22
chatgpt outage by april 10 942	1	$2.4K	4,026	0	+4,026	Yes	+$1,659	04-07 10:30
critical discord incident by march 31 2026	4	$2.3K	2,281	300	+1,981	Yes	+$245	03-25 21:34
chatgpt outage by april 3	1	$2.1K	2,867	0	+2,867	Yes	+$750	04-02 14:20
Will Tropical Storm Saudel make landfall in Japan?	4	$2.1K	1,163	1,163	+0	No	+$200	09-02 05:09
Will it rain during the Italian Grand Prix?	9	$2.0K	2,184	0	+2,184	No	+$147	09-06 16:16
will tropical storm karina strengthen to a hurricane	3	$1.8K	1,937	0	+1,937	Yes	+$90	08-29 04:41
another us government shutdown by february 14	7	$1.6K	875	875	+0	No	+$51	02-14 04:50
will turnout in the second round of the 2026 portuguese presidential election be between 48 and 50	61	$1.6K	1,316	4,387	-3,071	No	+$759	02-15 21:38
will japans january 2026 unemployment rate be 2pt6	16	$1.0K	630	630	+0	No	+$3	03-03 01:08
ChatGPT Outage by May 1?	21	$1000	1,083	0	+1,083	Yes	+$83	04-22 12:08
will the white house call a full lid by 630 pm on august 8 20260730202035444	1	$991	1,000	0	+1,000	Yes	+$9	08-09 17:42
will tropical storm lowell strengthen to a hurricane	7	$825	452	452	+0	Yes	-$2	08-29 08:54
Will the first Atlantic hurricane form between September 16 and September 20, 2026?	26	$798	2,151	2,187	-36	No	-$235	09-21 03:54
will tsla close between 425 and 430 week february 6 2026	5	$780	394	394	+0	No	+$7	02-06 21:30
Will the highest temperature during Burning Man 2026 be 87°F or 88°F?	1	$749	771	0	+771	Yes	+$21	09-08 03:26
0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	6	$727	753	0	+753	Yes	+$26	08-04 18:43
will turnout in the second round of the 2026 portuguese presidential election be between 50 and 52	49	$690	708	733	-25	Yes	-$291	02-15 20:57
will indias unemployment rate increase between december 2025 and january 2026	7	$611	624	0	+624	Yes	+$13	02-16 11:00

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 23:26:21	Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	32	19¢	$6	0x3e83f2…
10-03 03:33:50	OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by October 15?	Yes	SELL	20	82¢	$16	0xed53a5…
10-03 03:33:09	OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by October 31?	Yes	SELL	23	93¢	$21	0xb72f56…
10-03 03:22:35	OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by October 31?	Yes	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0xfdc366…
10-03 03:21:21	OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by October 31?	Yes	BUY	18	68¢	$12	0x32c58a…
10-03 03:19:17	OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by October 15?	Yes	BUY	20	38¢	$8	0x786f4c…
10-01 18:52:47	ChatGPT Outage by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0x6dda85…
10-01 18:52:45	ChatGPT Outage by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0x0c2da9…
10-01 18:52:44	ChatGPT Outage by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	67¢	$13	0x0060bc…
09-30 20:52:15	Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?	Yes	BUY	31	6¢	$2	0x485860…
09-30 20:36:24	Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in September?	Yes	BUY	35	9¢	$3	0x1c068b…
09-24 20:45:29	ChatGPT Outage by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	62	98¢	$61	0x35a6ce…
09-24 18:26:21	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by September 30?	No	SELL	72	2¢	$2	0xcf6276…
09-24 18:06:53	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by September 30?	No	BUY	72	2¢	$1	0xeb584d…
09-23 20:51:37	ChatGPT Outage by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	82	90¢	$74	0xd3b221…
09-22 05:16:42	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on September 23?	Yes	BUY	75	9¢	$7	0xad987b…
09-22 05:16:40	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 16°C on September 23?	Yes	BUY	61	17¢	$10	0xfcea81…
09-22 05:14:48	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 16°C on September 23?	Yes	BUY	47	17¢	$8	0xfdd222…
09-22 05:14:48	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C or higher on September 22?	Yes	BUY	46	13¢	$6	0xcfaa2e…
09-22 05:14:48	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on September 23?	Yes	BUY	87	9¢	$8	0x819db7…
09-22 05:13:09	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C on September 23?	No	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0x8f6ad2…
09-22 05:13:09	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on September 23?	Yes	BUY	70	11¢	$8	0x53e1d7…
09-22 05:13:09	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C or higher on September 22?	Yes	BUY	54	11¢	$6	0x2316f2…
09-22 05:13:07	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on September 23?	Yes	BUY	52	20¢	$10	0x8ae1c9…
09-22 05:13:07	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 16°C on September 23?	Yes	BUY	34	17¢	$6	0x811412…
09-22 05:13:07	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on September 23?	Yes	BUY	23	6¢	$1	0x4a6d69…
09-22 05:13:07	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on September 23?	Yes	BUY	25	8¢	$2	0x045052…
09-22 05:11:25	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on September 23?	Yes	BUY	95	7¢	$7	0xf19321…
09-22 05:11:25	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on September 23?	Yes	BUY	110	9¢	$9	0x709ba7…
09-22 05:11:25	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on September 23?	Yes	BUY	103	8¢	$8	0x6e1cce…
09-22 05:11:25	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 16°C on September 23?	Yes	BUY	78	17¢	$13	0x679990…
09-22 05:11:25	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on September 23?	Yes	BUY	167	7¢	$12	0x67103a…
09-22 05:11:25	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C or higher on September 22?	Yes	BUY	68	9¢	$6	0x5d8ef8…
09-22 05:11:25	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on September 22?	No	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x5a7e16…
09-22 05:11:25	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 16°C on September 23?	Yes	BUY	32	17¢	$5	0x04b397…
09-22 03:11:32	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on September 23?	Yes	BUY	72	7¢	$5	0x14a11d…
09-22 03:11:30	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 25°C on September 23?	Yes	BUY	5	18¢	$1	0xf6c158…
09-22 03:11:30	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on September 22?	Yes	BUY	178	5¢	$8	0xf15768…
09-22 03:11:30	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on September 22?	Yes	BUY	68	9¢	$6	0xe83834…
09-22 03:11:30	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on September 22?	Yes	BUY	134	8¢	$10	0xcf5ce1…
09-22 03:11:30	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on September 23?	Yes	BUY	223	2¢	$5	0xae5050…
09-22 03:11:30	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on September 23?	Yes	BUY	90	9¢	$8	0x97b6ba…
09-22 03:11:30	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on September 22?	Yes	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0x97a9b2…
09-22 03:11:30	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on September 22?	No	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x8b7d5b…
09-22 03:11:30	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on September 23?	Yes	BUY	44	6¢	$3	0x6b7575…
09-22 03:11:30	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on September 23?	Yes	BUY	96	8¢	$8	0x618d7f…
09-22 03:11:30	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 24°C on September 23?	Yes	BUY	136	4¢	$5	0x43ee8e…
09-22 03:11:30	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on September 23?	Yes	BUY	111	7¢	$8	0x2776cf…
09-22 00:36:36	ChatGPT Outage by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x9a987d…
09-22 00:11:09	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on September 23?	Yes	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0xf13653…
09-22 00:11:09	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on September 23?	No	BUY	13	48¢	$6	0x48cd7c…
09-22 00:11:07	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on September 23?	No	BUY	11	55¢	$6	0xd48b52…
09-22 00:11:07	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on September 23?	No	BUY	16	47¢	$8	0xaef3cd…
09-22 00:11:07	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on September 23?	No	BUY	12	55¢	$6	0xaa035f…
09-22 00:11:07	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on September 23?	Yes	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0xa408cc…
09-22 00:11:07	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on September 23?	No	BUY	16	47¢	$7	0x997c63…
09-22 00:11:07	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on September 23?	No	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x84121a…
09-22 00:11:07	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on September 23?	No	BUY	11	55¢	$6	0x56b3a8…
09-22 00:11:07	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on September 23?	No	BUY	12	55¢	$7	0x559af1…
09-22 00:11:07	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on September 23?	No	BUY	10	55¢	$5	0x297319…
09-21 23:09:36	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on September 23?	No	BUY	10	56¢	$6	0xd1bf6a…
09-21 23:09:36	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on September 23?	No	BUY	11	56¢	$6	0x56a6ed…
09-21 23:09:36	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on September 23?	No	BUY	10	67¢	$7	0x308677…
09-21 23:09:36	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on September 23?	No	BUY	20	67¢	$13	0x11ecc9…
09-21 23:09:36	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on September 23?	No	BUY	53	55¢	$29	0x0f1d53…
09-21 23:09:34	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on September 23?	No	BUY	23	66¢	$15	0xf1ef7b…
09-21 23:09:34	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on September 23?	Yes	BUY	5	16¢	$1	0xd431b8…
09-21 23:09:34	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C on September 23?	No	BUY	13	51¢	$6	0xb16861…
09-21 23:09:34	Will the lowest temperature in Busan be 18°C on September 23?	No	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0xacbdfb…
09-21 23:09:34	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C on September 23?	No	BUY	46	50¢	$23	0x8f6fe7…
09-21 23:09:34	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on September 23?	No	BUY	9	59¢	$5	0x79b0e7…
09-21 23:09:34	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on September 23?	Yes	BUY	40	17¢	$7	0x4eb99d…
09-21 23:09:34	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on September 23?	No	BUY	13	59¢	$8	0x46155e…
09-21 23:09:34	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C on September 23?	No	BUY	24	50¢	$12	0x3d1494…
09-21 23:09:34	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on September 23?	No	BUY	25	66¢	$17	0x3cd6c0…
09-21 23:09:04	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on September 23?	No	BUY	8	90¢	$7	0xfd9497…
09-21 23:09:04	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on September 23?	No	BUY	12	83¢	$10	0xf7f0e9…
09-21 23:09:04	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on September 23?	No	BUY	41	54¢	$22	0xe56c6d…
09-21 23:09:04	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C on September 23?	No	BUY	15	49¢	$7	0xd0b35f…
09-21 23:09:04	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on September 23?	No	BUY	10	54¢	$5	0xc3ada8…
09-21 23:09:04	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on September 23?	No	BUY	26	66¢	$17	0xc1fa10…
09-21 23:09:04	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on September 23?	No	BUY	14	83¢	$12	0xaab705…
09-21 23:09:04	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on September 23?	No	BUY	10	54¢	$5	0x954d91…
09-21 23:09:04	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on September 23?	No	BUY	12	54¢	$6	0x75b12d…
09-21 23:09:04	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on September 23?	No	BUY	17	54¢	$9	0x70ab13…
09-21 23:09:04	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on September 23?	No	BUY	20	66¢	$13	0x66e427…
09-21 23:09:04	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on September 23?	No	BUY	18	54¢	$9	0x66baf2…
09-21 23:09:04	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on September 23?	No	BUY	24	66¢	$16	0x4909e7…
09-21 23:09:04	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on September 23?	No	BUY	14	65¢	$9	0x41108c…
09-21 23:09:04	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on September 23?	No	BUY	16	83¢	$14	0x3dffeb…
09-21 23:09:04	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on September 23?	No	BUY	14	55¢	$8	0x385a40…
09-21 23:09:04	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on September 23?	No	BUY	33	66¢	$22	0x29eec1…
09-21 23:09:03	Will the lowest temperature in Busan be 18°C on September 23?	No	BUY	15	74¢	$11	0x9be4c3…
09-21 23:09:03	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C on September 23?	No	BUY	14	48¢	$7	0x81d0d3…
09-21 23:09:03	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on September 23?	No	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0x662141…
09-21 23:09:03	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C on September 23?	No	BUY	38	49¢	$19	0x638fd2…
09-21 23:09:01	Will the lowest temperature in Busan be 18°C on September 23?	No	BUY	18	69¢	$12	0xefec07…
09-21 23:09:01	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on September 23?	No	BUY	18	59¢	$11	0xa38c18…
09-21 23:09:01	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on September 23?	No	BUY	10	59¢	$6	0x96d219…
09-21 23:09:01	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C on September 23?	No	BUY	26	49¢	$13	0x8deee5…