Somber-Hype — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.52K

Unrealized P&L

-$7

Hit rate

25.3%

Resolved

Trades

294

lifetime

Volume

$4.40K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$15

Open exposure

$135

1 position

First seen

2026-01-04

last 11-11 09:18

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 30 days

Categories

Crypto

61% 40% -$333

Other

27% 4% -$957

Politics

12% 14% -$232

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

6 active days in 12wk • peak 17 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes		+3,746	$142	4¢	$135	-$7	11-11 09:18

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
bitcoin up or down on january 5	29	$1.0K	1,200	1,200	+0	Up	-$96	01-05 00:27
bitcoin up or down on january 15	5	$576	400	400	+0	Down	+$192	01-15 15:27
bitcoin up or down on march 6	16	$388	400	400	+0	Down	-$16	03-06 03:30
Will Alphabet (GOOGL) beat quarterly earnings?	80	$336	13,251	0	+13,251	Yes	-$336	07-22 21:39
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?	6	$292	537	537	+0	No	+$9	01-14 15:17
bitcoin up or down on january 14	8	$269	12,510	0	+12,510	Up	-$269	01-14 14:39
BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-01-14 13:00 UTC	2	$195	1,000	0	+1,000	Up	-$195	01-14 14:42
solana up or down on january 15	13	$145	100	100	+0	Down	+$47	01-15 15:36
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	34	$142	3,746	0	+3,746	open	—	11-11 09:18
kraken ipo by march 31 2026	5	$128	2,177	0	+2,177	No	-$128	02-27 22:04
tsn quarterly earnings nongaap eps 02 02 2026 0pt94	5	$70	600	0	+600	Yes	-$70	02-02 03:11
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings?	10	$57	1,500	0	+1,500	Yes	-$57	05-20 20:07
aapl quarterly earnings gaap eps 01 29 2026 2pt67	6	$55	945	0	+945	Yes	-$55	01-29 21:30
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	1	$55	500	0	+500	No	-$55	03-29 00:58
russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026	1	$54	1,987	0	+1,987	No	-$54	01-22 16:52
nvda quarterly earnings nongaap eps 02 25 2026 1pt52	3	$51	510	0	+510	Yes	-$51	02-25 20:59
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	1	$51	725	0	+725	Yes	-$51	01-30 06:09
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	1	$50	1,570	0	+1,570	No	-$50	01-30 06:07
meta quarterly earnings gaap eps 01 28 2026 8pt19	1	$50	450	0	+450	Yes	-$50	01-27 23:55
wmt quarterly earnings nongaap eps 02 19 2026 0pt72	5	$49	382	0	+382	Yes	-$49	02-19 09:00
txn quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 22 2026 1pt92	20	$49	818	0	+818	Yes	-$49	07-22 20:01
msft quarterly earnings gaap eps 01 28 2026 3pt85	10	$38	637	0	+637	Yes	-$38	01-27 23:55
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 03:50 UTC	2	$30	20	20	+0	Up	+$9	03-30 03:55
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 04:00 UTC	2	$28	19	19	+0	Up	+$8	03-30 04:04
nke quarterly earnings gaap eps 03 31 2026 0pt29	1	$20	96	0	+96	Yes	-$20	03-31 20:11
csco quarterly earnings nongaap eps 02 11 2026 1pt02	2	$20	200	0	+200	Yes	-$20	02-11 20:56
russia x ukraine ceasefire by february 28 2026	1	$20	1,000	0	+1,000	No	-$20	02-09 14:16
nke quarterly earnings gaap eps 06 30 2026 0pt12	1	$19	129	0	+129	Yes	-$19	06-30 20:06
ibkr quarterly earnings nongaap eps 01 20 2026 0pt56	1	$19	93	0	+93	Yes	-$19	01-20 21:02
amat quarterly earnings nongaap eps 02 12 2026 2pt21	2	$18	200	0	+200	Yes	-$18	02-11 20:58

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-11 09:18:16	Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	3¢	$2	0xd3982c…
09-22 16:59:21	Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	86	3¢	$3	0xf7206b…
09-22 12:27:09	Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	3¢	$1	0xe660ae…
09-22 12:25:36	Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	91	3¢	$3	0xc2509f…
09-20 10:56:01	Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	3¢	$1	0x93b89a…
09-04 15:19:07	Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	190	3¢	$6	0x09086c…
09-04 15:12:19	Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	3¢	$0	0x676c14…
09-04 09:42:28	Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	3¢	$1	0x6639ae…
09-04 09:33:07	Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	3¢	$1	0xf27b54…
09-04 09:33:07	Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	3¢	$1	0xeea73a…
09-04 09:32:52	Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	3¢	$1	0x5dd302…
09-04 09:32:52	Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	3¢	$1	0x5b5c75…
09-04 09:19:19	Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	3¢	$1	0x5236ba…
09-04 09:17:36	Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	3¢	$0	0xe3bfa2…
09-04 09:17:21	Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	3¢	$1	0x65690f…
09-04 09:16:37	Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	3¢	$1	0x57fa6e…
09-04 08:57:40	Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	3¢	$1	0x962271…
09-04 08:57:03	Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	3¢	$1	0x800a97…
09-04 08:55:45	Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0xa7cc79…
09-04 08:52:04	Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0x9a494b…
09-04 08:49:22	Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0x68edc3…
09-04 08:14:00	Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	3¢	$1	0x800459…
09-03 10:48:34	Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	160	3¢	$5	0x79e6d0…
09-03 02:58:27	Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	38	3¢	$1	0x817399…
09-03 01:15:45	Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	3¢	$0	0x433207…
09-02 21:01:18	Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	412	3¢	$12	0x1bdafe…
09-02 20:47:24	Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	3¢	$1	0xf39286…
09-02 20:45:27	Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	332	3¢	$10	0xc627d3…
09-02 20:43:46	Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	980	4¢	$39	0xb8d423…
09-02 20:42:57	Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0x490b30…
09-02 20:41:15	Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	558	5¢	$28	0xaa0912…
09-02 20:37:30	Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	94	5¢	$5	0x32ae7a…
09-02 20:31:43	Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	5¢	$1	0x76ffed…
09-02 20:23:24	Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	307	5¢	$15	0xc10555…
07-22 21:39:40	googl quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 22 2026 2pt89	No	BUY	1,000	1¢	$10	0xcb6732…
07-22 21:39:10	googl quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 22 2026 2pt89	No	BUY	1,000	2¢	$20	0xa0202e…
07-22 21:36:30	googl quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 22 2026 2pt89	No	BUY	1,000	1¢	$10	0x91e042…
07-22 21:34:39	googl quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 22 2026 2pt89	No	BUY	1,000	2¢	$25	0x2e7e35…
07-22 21:34:13	googl quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 22 2026 2pt89	No	BUY	251	3¢	$9	0x364732…
07-22 21:34:07	googl quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 22 2026 2pt89	No	BUY	251	3¢	$9	0xa80cf3…
07-22 21:33:31	googl quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 22 2026 2pt89	No	BUY	328	3¢	$11	0x19921f…
07-22 21:32:01	googl quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 22 2026 2pt89	No	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x4375f0…
07-22 21:31:01	googl quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 22 2026 2pt89	No	BUY	1,000	1¢	$10	0x8255f8…
07-22 21:30:34	googl quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 22 2026 2pt89	No	BUY	291	3¢	$9	0x422b8c…
07-22 20:01:03	txn quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 22 2026 1pt92	No	BUY	9	5¢	$0	0x706fe2…
07-22 19:53:12	googl quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 22 2026 2pt89	No	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x0026b9…
07-22 19:46:19	googl quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 22 2026 2pt89	No	BUY	97	3¢	$3	0xaa0cbf…
07-22 19:24:12	googl quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 22 2026 2pt89	No	BUY	94	3¢	$3	0x53698e…
07-22 19:22:24	googl quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 22 2026 2pt89	No	BUY	94	3¢	$3	0xf94763…
07-22 19:22:13	googl quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 22 2026 2pt89	No	BUY	206	3¢	$7	0xb23b3d…
07-22 19:22:04	googl quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 22 2026 2pt89	No	BUY	251	3¢	$9	0xeef138…
07-22 19:21:28	googl quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 22 2026 2pt89	No	BUY	251	3¢	$9	0x047a63…
07-22 19:21:13	googl quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 22 2026 2pt89	No	BUY	251	3¢	$9	0x88eedf…
07-22 15:51:12	googl quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 22 2026 2pt89	No	BUY	200	2¢	$5	0xd018fb…
07-22 14:47:55	googl quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 22 2026 2pt89	No	BUY	1	3¢	$0	0x58f1d0…
07-22 14:06:24	googl quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 22 2026 2pt89	No	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0xd9b78a…
07-22 12:41:18	googl quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 22 2026 2pt89	No	BUY	100	3¢	$3	0x2b412e…
07-22 12:20:15	googl quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 22 2026 2pt89	No	BUY	2	4¢	$0	0xf37c18…
07-22 11:21:51	googl quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 22 2026 2pt89	No	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x737737…
07-22 10:42:25	googl quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 22 2026 2pt89	No	BUY	86	3¢	$3	0xcf663b…
07-22 07:59:39	googl quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 22 2026 2pt89	No	BUY	100	3¢	$3	0x0c4d02…
07-22 07:53:49	googl quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 22 2026 2pt89	No	BUY	76	4¢	$3	0x0b4475…
07-22 05:00:01	googl quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 22 2026 2pt89	No	BUY	1	4¢	$0	0x7dfed0…
07-22 04:31:16	googl quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 22 2026 2pt89	No	BUY	1	4¢	$0	0xe085dc…
07-22 02:01:37	googl quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 22 2026 2pt89	No	BUY	6	4¢	$0	0xb60493…
07-21 23:11:55	googl quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 22 2026 2pt89	No	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0x87d8c0…
07-21 22:58:13	googl quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 22 2026 2pt89	No	BUY	28	4¢	$1	0x606ede…
07-21 22:21:48	googl quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 22 2026 2pt89	No	BUY	72	4¢	$3	0x49a8a3…
07-21 20:19:25	txn quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 22 2026 1pt92	No	BUY	3	5¢	$0	0x899606…
07-21 19:30:48	Will Alphabet (GOOGL) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	79	4¢	$3	0x4c437d…
07-21 19:22:52	Will Alphabet (GOOGL) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	1	4¢	$0	0x34d9e9…
07-21 19:16:54	googl quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 22 2026 2pt89	No	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0xfa286c…
07-21 19:02:52	googl quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 22 2026 2pt89	No	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x56cdc9…
07-21 19:01:52	googl quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 22 2026 2pt89	No	BUY	100	4¢	$4	0x05fcc1…
07-21 19:01:46	googl quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 22 2026 2pt89	No	BUY	200	4¢	$9	0xcfea4e…
07-21 19:01:39	googl quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 22 2026 2pt89	No	BUY	300	4¢	$13	0xcc895a…
07-21 19:00:33	googl quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 22 2026 2pt89	No	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0x6d1a3e…
07-21 18:56:55	googl quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 22 2026 2pt89	No	BUY	323	3¢	$11	0xdf03b1…
07-21 17:53:00	txn quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 22 2026 1pt92	No	BUY	37	5¢	$2	0xc47b8f…
07-21 17:19:43	googl quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 22 2026 2pt89	No	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0xbacf46…
07-21 16:24:03	txn quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 22 2026 1pt92	No	BUY	1	5¢	$0	0xa2e3e0…
07-21 16:19:15	txn quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 22 2026 1pt92	No	BUY	18	6¢	$1	0xf80684…
07-21 16:18:34	txn quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 22 2026 1pt92	No	BUY	50	6¢	$3	0x33d388…
07-21 16:18:25	txn quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 22 2026 1pt92	No	BUY	50	6¢	$3	0x1fb45e…
07-21 16:18:22	txn quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 22 2026 1pt92	No	BUY	50	6¢	$3	0xe60227…
07-21 16:18:15	txn quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 22 2026 1pt92	No	BUY	50	6¢	$3	0xb5c1fc…
07-21 16:18:01	txn quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 22 2026 1pt92	No	BUY	50	6¢	$3	0x0c9d03…
07-21 16:17:57	txn quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 22 2026 1pt92	No	BUY	50	6¢	$3	0xa08060…
07-21 16:17:52	txn quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 22 2026 1pt92	No	BUY	50	6¢	$3	0xe582ae…
07-21 16:17:46	txn quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 22 2026 1pt92	No	BUY	50	6¢	$3	0x506ba6…
07-21 16:17:10	txn quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 22 2026 1pt92	No	BUY	50	6¢	$3	0x0ec1e2…
07-21 16:17:04	txn quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 22 2026 1pt92	No	BUY	50	6¢	$3	0x37ce2d…
07-21 16:16:58	txn quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 22 2026 1pt92	No	BUY	50	6¢	$3	0x6b0fa9…
07-21 16:16:51	txn quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 22 2026 1pt92	No	BUY	50	6¢	$3	0xff4514…
07-21 16:16:45	txn quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 22 2026 1pt92	No	BUY	50	6¢	$3	0x634cdd…
07-21 16:16:39	txn quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 22 2026 1pt92	No	BUY	50	6¢	$3	0x6e7520…
07-21 16:16:10	txn quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 22 2026 1pt92	No	BUY	50	6¢	$3	0x388e74…
07-21 13:48:51	Will Alphabet (GOOGL) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x5d4c69…
07-21 04:51:31	googl quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 22 2026 2pt89	No	BUY	63	3¢	$2	0xec488a…
07-20 21:29:58	googl quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 22 2026 2pt89	No	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0xafd0ad…