Married-Bikini — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$113

Unrealized P&L

+$76

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

619

lifetime

Volume

$75.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$121

Open exposure

$649

2 positions

First seen

2026-03-11

last 07-18 14:48

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Politics

45% 100% +$73

Other

44% 100% +$33

Crypto

11% 100% +$7

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

40 active days in 12wk • peak 30 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes		+546	$366	76¢	$418	+$52	06-18 23:03
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes		+283	$207	82¢	$231	+$24	06-08 08:10

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	60	$7.2K	5,027	5,027	+0	open	—	03-23 11:08
cbb stlou ga 2026 03 19	5	$4.6K	4,000	3,995	+5	open	—	03-19 09:05
cbb hpnt wisc 2026 03 19 total 164pt5	3	$2.9K	3,000	3,000	+0	open	—	03-18 13:07
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	12	$2.9K	1,489	1,489	+0	open	—	04-28 04:18
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	15	$2.8K	2,010	1,610	+400	open	—	05-26 10:19
kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	11	$2.5K	1,420	1,420	+0	open	—	03-31 00:53
cbb smu miaoh 2026 03 18	4	$1.9K	3,600	3,600	+0	open	—	03-18 16:58
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	11	$1.9K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	05-30 06:58
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch?	4	$1.9K	953	953	+0	open	—	04-30 11:08
megaeth market cap fdv 1b one day after launch gj9e 189 291 824 352	10	$1.7K	901	901	+0	open	—	04-30 16:02
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	17	$1.5K	2,800	2,800	+0	open	—	04-07 23:03
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	12	$1.4K	800	800	+0	open	—	03-23 10:48
cbb vand nebr 2026 03 21	2	$1.4K	1,600	1,600	+0	open	—	03-20 04:57
cbb sanclr uk 2026 03 20 spread home 3pt5	5	$1.4K	1,300	1,300	+0	open	—	03-20 06:28
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	11	$1.3K	710	683	+27	No	+$32	05-11 02:36
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	6	$1.3K	600	800	-200	open	—	06-11 09:35
cbb sanclr uk 2026 03 20	2	$1.3K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	03-20 16:38
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	13	$1.3K	690	690	+0	open	—	05-15 07:33
megaeth market cap fdv 2b one day after launch 738 867 649 272 765 733	2	$1.2K	600	600	+0	open	—	05-01 09:21
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	6	$1.1K	600	600	+0	open	—	05-06 09:38
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	6	$1.1K	549	549	+0	No	+$22	05-09 00:39
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	7	$1.0K	600	600	+0	open	—	03-31 08:36
cbb hofst ala 2026 03 20 total 157pt5	2	$1.0K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	03-20 11:10
USD.AI FDV above $150M one day after launch?	9	$1.0K	580	580	+0	open	—	04-21 07:44
cbb liub arz 2026 03 20 spread home 30pt5	2	$1.0K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	03-20 16:04
cbb furman uconn 2026 03 20 spread home 20pt5	4	$1.0K	1,009	1,009	+0	open	—	03-20 08:10
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	14	$957	780	880	-100	open	—	05-22 23:53
will bitcoin reach 72pt5k in june 2026	2	$862	504	504	+0	open	—	06-16 05:23
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	11	$849	1,100	1,100	+0	open	—	04-07 22:55
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	9	$835	450	450	+0	open	—	05-22 03:51

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-18 14:48:19	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	No	BUY	36	83¢	$30	0xcb0cbe…
07-18 14:45:30	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	No	BUY	164	83¢	$136	0xf0fe2d…
06-23 11:47:46	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	No	SELL	54	66¢	$36	0x7287e5…
06-23 10:29:07	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	No	BUY	54	63¢	$34	0x5f224f…
06-18 23:03:16	Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	91	67¢	$61	0x90e692…
06-18 13:49:07	Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	209	67¢	$140	0xad4e45…
06-18 10:06:56	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	Yes	SELL	260	89¢	$231	0x45e7e0…
06-18 06:02:35	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	Yes	BUY	260	78¢	$203	0xdba61a…
06-17 19:31:38	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 19 20260615191216217	Yes	SELL	204	100¢	$203	0x100373…
06-17 19:17:49	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	Yes	SELL	86	53¢	$46	0x88efd8…
06-17 18:42:31	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	Yes	BUY	86	73¢	$63	0x4715da…
06-17 18:30:16	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	No	SELL	5	35¢	$2	0xb5dc54…
06-17 18:30:16	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	No	SELL	0	35¢	$0	0x9b1afd…
06-17 18:30:16	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	No	SELL	3	35¢	$1	0x905cf9…
06-17 18:30:16	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	No	SELL	5	35¢	$2	0x25a72d…
06-17 18:30:16	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	No	SELL	1	35¢	$0	0x1e19de…
06-17 18:30:14	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	No	SELL	3	35¢	$1	0xf1d8ed…
06-17 18:30:14	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	No	SELL	3	35¢	$1	0x406338…
06-17 18:30:14	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	No	SELL	29	35¢	$10	0x279353…
06-17 18:30:13	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	No	SELL	2	35¢	$1	0x5a6dac…
06-17 18:30:13	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	No	SELL	3	35¢	$1	0x45f62a…
06-17 18:30:13	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	No	SELL	43	35¢	$15	0x2b3af5…
06-17 18:30:13	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	No	SELL	3	35¢	$1	0x0e9e5a…
06-17 18:19:41	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	No	BUY	100	35¢	$35	0xb3924a…
06-17 17:13:31	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 19 20260615191216217	Yes	BUY	204	87¢	$177	0x0f9f37…
06-17 16:22:43	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 17 20260615191216216	Yes	SELL	102	34¢	$35	0x56aa26…
06-17 16:22:20	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 17 20260615191216216	Yes	SELL	98	35¢	$34	0x70eef3…
06-17 16:07:37	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 17 20260615191216216	Yes	BUY	200	37¢	$74	0x6ac4db…
06-17 15:54:40	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	200	38¢	$76	0xbf7a65…
06-17 15:32:41	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	200	39¢	$78	0xabf077…
06-17 15:28:23	will the us iran deal be physically signed by june 19 2026 20260615222831704	Yes	SELL	61	32¢	$20	0xd5fb26…
06-17 15:28:14	will the us iran deal be physically signed by june 19 2026 20260615222831704	Yes	SELL	28	32¢	$9	0x7457cd…
06-17 15:28:14	will the us iran deal be physically signed by june 19 2026 20260615222831704	Yes	SELL	3	32¢	$1	0x31b622…
06-17 15:28:11	will the us iran deal be physically signed by june 19 2026 20260615222831704	Yes	SELL	2	32¢	$1	0x068b2d…
06-17 15:28:08	will the us iran deal be physically signed by june 19 2026 20260615222831704	Yes	SELL	5	32¢	$2	0xfb35a4…
06-17 15:28:08	will the us iran deal be physically signed by june 19 2026 20260615222831704	Yes	SELL	100	33¢	$33	0x53aff9…
06-17 10:51:43	will the us iran deal be physically signed by june 19 2026 20260615222831704	Yes	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0x6139fa…
06-17 09:50:08	will the us iran deal be physically signed by june 19 2026 20260615222831704	Yes	BUY	100	79¢	$79	0xe50204…
06-16 16:41:34	Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0x70ca32…
06-16 15:18:28	Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	8	67¢	$5	0x6fd1b0…
06-16 13:58:58	Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	6	67¢	$4	0x54d57e…
06-16 13:53:29	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in june 2026	Yes	SELL	100	9¢	$9	0xf71f93…
06-16 13:37:47	Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	195	67¢	$130	0xd1562e…
06-16 13:36:29	will trump agree to iranian oil sanction relief by june 30	Yes	BUY	200	90¢	$180	0xa4b2b3…
06-16 05:23:58	will bitcoin reach 72pt5k in june 2026	No	SELL	504	83¢	$419	0x27dd2b…
06-15 18:02:28	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in june 2026	Yes	BUY	100	9¢	$9	0xba8d92…
06-13 13:46:12	will bitcoin reach 72pt5k in june 2026	No	BUY	504	88¢	$444	0xe1bcd1…
06-11 09:35:30	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	SELL	210	100¢	$209	0x940c2d…
06-10 08:18:30	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	SELL	190	99¢	$188	0x59323e…
06-08 08:10:51	Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	283	73¢	$207	0xe2f59a…
06-08 00:31:46	Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	33	67¢	$22	0x482cf7…
06-05 09:51:07	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	400	98¢	$390	0x98d011…
06-05 09:47:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	500	82¢	$410	0x2a3184…
06-03 14:45:06	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	500	81¢	$405	0x9ef592…
06-01 07:48:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	SELL	400	96¢	$384	0x121128…
05-30 06:58:10	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	SELL	200	99¢	$199	0xcfadca…
05-29 17:41:39	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	BUY	166	85¢	$141	0xf37e42…
05-29 17:41:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	BUY	34	85¢	$29	0xcb2eb6…
05-29 15:26:42	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	313	94¢	$294	0x693600…
05-29 03:00:56	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	200	98¢	$197	0x7f5fa9…
05-28 16:38:38	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	No	SELL	175	100¢	$174	0x4a6bf7…
05-28 16:29:43	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0x5732d5…
05-28 08:16:44	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	No	BUY	200	98¢	$196	0x78157d…
05-28 07:37:06	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	No	SELL	201	99¢	$199	0x501501…
05-27 12:38:33	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	No	SELL	160	98¢	$157	0xdde3af…
05-27 11:51:22	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	113	84¢	$95	0x4b02e8…
05-27 11:37:57	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	No	SELL	40	98¢	$39	0x6d72cc…
05-27 11:37:11	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	Yes	SELL	107	16¢	$17	0x93c2a6…
05-27 11:01:01	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	83¢	$166	0x1034ff…
05-27 10:33:33	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	9¢	$17	0x26a7e1…
05-27 10:32:56	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	Yes	SELL	150	24¢	$36	0xad69f5…
05-27 09:47:50	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	Yes	BUY	57	22¢	$13	0xd0c918…
05-27 02:02:15	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?	Yes	SELL	200	0¢	$1	0xcbe697…
05-27 01:53:44	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?	Yes	BUY	200	1¢	$2	0x3b9452…
05-26 15:04:55	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?	Yes	SELL	189	11¢	$21	0x606c42…
05-26 14:11:22	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?	Yes	SELL	400	13¢	$52	0x29065a…
05-26 10:19:31	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	BUY	100	3¢	$3	0x238ed4…
05-26 10:01:05	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	No	BUY	401	96¢	$385	0x634265…
05-26 09:29:00	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	BUY	300	3¢	$8	0xe8eb02…
05-26 09:04:19	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	Yes	BUY	200	28¢	$56	0xe8186d…
05-26 08:53:11	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	Yes	SELL	200	33¢	$66	0x8b25ad…
05-26 08:38:53	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	Yes	SELL	200	33¢	$66	0xc8c293…
05-26 06:42:48	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?	Yes	SELL	33	13¢	$4	0xa89642…
05-26 05:21:35	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?	Yes	BUY	200	15¢	$30	0xaa8bc4…
05-26 01:08:02	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$2	0xaa0d6f…
05-25 19:32:30	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	14¢	$2	0x08e330…
05-25 17:32:55	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?	Yes	SELL	100	4¢	$4	0xb87e75…
05-25 17:16:07	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	SELL	290	5¢	$13	0x92ebd8…
05-25 17:16:05	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?	Yes	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0xd70226…
05-25 16:52:52	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?	Yes	BUY	200	22¢	$44	0x424a27…
05-25 14:58:04	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	BUY	300	2¢	$6	0x480184…
05-25 14:33:04	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?	Yes	SELL	160	7¢	$11	0xc0813f…
05-25 14:32:54	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?	Yes	SELL	40	7¢	$3	0x510903…
05-25 14:24:54	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?	Yes	BUY	200	8¢	$16	0x3e5be3…
05-25 11:10:03	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	Yes	BUY	69	27¢	$19	0xfc4c94…
05-25 10:42:50	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	Yes	BUY	131	27¢	$35	0x353578…
05-25 03:54:18	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	Yes	BUY	200	24¢	$48	0x2d97cf…
05-25 01:49:15	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	SELL	500	100¢	$498	0x1fe8ba…
05-24 16:33:20	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	Yes	SELL	200	43¢	$86	0xbe8645…
05-24 15:21:13	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	Yes	BUY	200	37¢	$74	0x4f93ef…