Wild-Underwriting — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$18

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

69.5%

Resolved

Trades

432

lifetime

Volume

$15.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$35

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-21

last 08-09 09:09

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 10 days

Categories

Crypto

37% 77% +$2

Other

31% 60% $-1

Politics

21% 100% +$12

Sports

7% 100% +$5

Tech

3% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

55 active days in 12wk • peak 30 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 11?	2	$257	155	155	+0	Yes	$-28	05-11 03:15
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven	2	$248	138	138	+0	open	—	05-22 14:18
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	4	$207	127	127	+0	open	—	06-17 14:26
starmer out by june 22 2026	2	$185	106	106	+0	open	—	06-20 15:08
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	2	$183	105	105	+0	open	—	07-03 07:34
israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	2	$179	102	102	+0	open	—	07-08 21:31
elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 260 279	1	$176	194	0	+194	open	—	04-21 10:33
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	1	$173	185	0	+185	No	+$11	05-01 10:38
wta siniako yuan 2026 06 13	2	$172	93	93	+0	open	—	06-15 11:45
Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	2	$172	94	94	+0	open	—	05-16 21:14
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 18 2026	2	$170	101	101	+0	open	—	06-15 07:22
will a claude mythos model be released by june 15 2026	3	$167	107	80	+27	open	—	06-09 02:24
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	2	$159	91	91	+0	open	—	05-29 16:27
elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 280 299	1	$159	167	0	+167	open	—	04-21 10:33
UFC Fight Night: Gerald Meerschaert vs. Jacob Malkoun (Middleweight, Main Card)	1	$154	169	0	+169	open	—	05-02 04:49
iran closes its airspace by june 15	3	$152	115	61	+54	open	—	06-07 20:55
UFC Fight Night: Tim Elliott vs. Steve Erceg (Flyweight, Main Card)	1	$147	155	0	+155	open	—	05-02 13:00
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	2	$145	78	78	+0	open	—	06-17 12:30
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 11?	1	$141	157	0	+157	No	+$16	05-11 03:24
will bitcoin dip to 58k on june 10	2	$139	77	77	+0	open	—	06-10 12:39
will bitcoin dip to 59k on june 10	2	$139	76	76	+0	open	—	06-10 13:44
will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 14 2026	4	$137	77	77	+0	open	—	08-09 09:09
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season?	2	$131	72	72	+0	open	—	05-24 15:20
bitcoin above 60k on june 10 2026	2	$130	76	76	+0	open	—	06-09 14:31
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 4?	1	$130	137	0	+137	open	—	05-03 01:18
ethereum above 1700 on june 4 2026	3	$127	70	70	+0	open	—	06-04 01:36
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?	1	$126	133	0	+133	open	—	05-20 14:55
will bitcoin dip to 65k on june 16	2	$126	75	75	+0	open	—	06-16 13:27
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 25?	3	$126	69	69	+0	open	—	05-24 21:49
will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 7 2026	2	$123	73	73	+0	open	—	08-03 06:16

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-09 09:09:06	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 14 2026	No	SELL	63	85¢	$54	0x1eb58c…
08-08 20:00:36	will gpt 6 be released by august 21 2026	No	SELL	62	86¢	$53	0xfc64fd…
08-08 00:08:13	will gpt 6 be released by august 21 2026	No	BUY	62	95¢	$59	0xfef51c…
08-07 14:07:03	will gpt 6 be released by august 14 2026	No	SELL	10	84¢	$8	0x94514f…
08-07 12:40:27	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 14 2026	No	BUY	63	94¢	$59	0x0c6c8a…
08-06 20:47:12	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 15 2026	No	BUY	102	91¢	$93	0xdbe411…
08-06 15:39:33	will gpt 6 be released by august 14 2026	No	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0x0cfa81…
08-03 23:05:32	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 14 2026	Yes	SELL	14	83¢	$11	0x24ae75…
08-03 20:33:27	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 14 2026	Yes	BUY	14	93¢	$13	0x51e895…
08-03 06:16:18	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 7 2026	No	SELL	73	78¢	$57	0xe79348…
08-02 21:46:17	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 7 2026	No	SELL	6	85¢	$5	0xe43595…
08-02 03:05:57	israel closes its airspace by august 15	No	BUY	18	91¢	$16	0x70fb37…
08-01 23:59:23	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	No	BUY	35	92¢	$33	0x0b8014…
08-01 23:57:23	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 7 2026	No	BUY	6	95¢	$6	0x7267da…
08-01 00:30:21	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 7 2026	No	BUY	73	91¢	$66	0x615699…
07-26 02:07:06	will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	No	SELL	8	65¢	$5	0x6ea417…
07-25 17:02:46	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	102	91¢	$93	0x092b97…
07-24 17:23:27	will trump meet with netanyahu by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	101	91¢	$92	0xf9410f…
07-22 21:38:19	will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	No	BUY	8	92¢	$7	0x59b584…
07-22 14:06:30	israel closes its airspace by july 24	No	SELL	10	85¢	$8	0xc8a337…
07-20 07:54:31	israel closes its airspace by july 24	No	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0xd2ae34…
07-19 05:41:15	will israel launch a ground operation in iran by july 31 2026	No	BUY	13	95¢	$12	0x82de90…
07-17 19:58:42	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	No	BUY	42	91¢	$38	0x6d88f3…
07-17 09:15:58	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	No	SELL	40	82¢	$33	0x6f0b64…
07-17 00:47:50	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	No	BUY	40	92¢	$37	0x1478f8…
07-17 00:01:32	israeli parliament dissolved by july 31	Yes	BUY	6	93¢	$6	0x0aed05…
07-15 21:19:28	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	SELL	50	88¢	$44	0x82cdd8…
07-10 07:12:55	trump declassifies new ufo files by july 15	Yes	SELL	10	82¢	$8	0x215a5b…
07-10 04:27:52	trump declassifies new ufo files by july 15	Yes	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0xe99631…
07-08 21:31:32	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	No	SELL	102	82¢	$84	0x8644c1…
07-03 07:34:58	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	SELL	105	82¢	$86	0x8169b0…
07-02 19:23:10	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	105	92¢	$97	0x56d82a…
07-01 00:00:53	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	No	BUY	102	94¢	$96	0x7f25f6…
06-29 03:45:31	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30?	No	SELL	7	65¢	$4	0xe43fde…
06-26 16:49:58	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	SELL	8	80¢	$6	0x59e212…
06-26 03:52:53	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	BUY	12	90¢	$11	0x8dc3d9…
06-23 13:34:59	Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30?	No	BUY	7	95¢	$6	0xe0351c…
06-20 21:13:22	Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	12	95¢	$11	0xdfdfd7…
06-20 15:08:07	starmer out by june 22 2026	No	SELL	106	82¢	$87	0xdf4c87…
06-20 12:02:47	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	BUY	8	90¢	$7	0x4bee44…
06-20 12:01:49	starmer out by june 22 2026	No	BUY	106	92¢	$98	0xe94131…
06-20 09:22:31	will russia enter borova by june 30	No	BUY	7	95¢	$6	0xdcb358…
06-19 19:37:08	will falcons reach the grand final at iem cologne major 2026	No	SELL	73	71¢	$51	0x9de42f…
06-18 16:45:32	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by june 30	No	SELL	62	80¢	$50	0x7f76ab…
06-18 09:54:59	Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?	No	SELL	13	81¢	$10	0x5bf3f1…
06-17 23:00:22	ethereum above 1800 on june 18 2026	No	BUY	36	93¢	$33	0xa94ad1…
06-17 22:04:08	will bitcoin reach 68k june 15 21 2026	No	BUY	7	91¢	$6	0x66678a…
06-17 21:45:38	bitcoin up or down on june 18 2026	Down	BUY	54	91¢	$49	0xc5f8a4…
06-17 19:55:34	will bitcoin dip to 60k june 15 21 2026	No	SELL	41	85¢	$35	0x18fb6a…
06-17 19:37:43	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	52	92¢	$48	0x8f72d5…
06-17 19:23:44	mlb sf atl 2026 06 16	San Francisco Giants	BUY	65	94¢	$61	0x488479…
06-17 19:19:46	ethereum above 1700 on june 18 2026	Yes	SELL	39	86¢	$34	0xc6d9bb…
06-17 18:43:59	ethereum above 1700 on june 18 2026	Yes	BUY	39	95¢	$37	0xae9898…
06-17 18:19:52	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by june 30	No	BUY	62	91¢	$57	0x6fdf6f…
06-17 14:26:37	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	Yes	SELL	81	72¢	$59	0xf16d32…
06-17 14:09:26	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 19 2026 475	Yes	SELL	43	83¢	$35	0x5b6a5a…
06-17 12:30:46	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	78	90¢	$70	0x414e94…
06-17 11:36:05	atp bergs fritz 2026 06 15	Taylor Fritz	BUY	25	93¢	$24	0x946d88…
06-17 11:09:28	wta vekic eala 2026 06 15	Alexandra Eala	SELL	27	79¢	$21	0x24b98d…
06-17 10:46:43	wta vekic eala 2026 06 15	Alexandra Eala	BUY	27	90¢	$24	0x2b2a01…
06-17 10:09:19	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	9	67¢	$6	0x7da698…
06-17 08:37:31	crint ind4 afg2 2026 06 17	India	BUY	30	91¢	$27	0xa599ca…
06-17 08:31:04	will bitcoin dip to 60k june 15 21 2026	No	BUY	41	93¢	$38	0x8c6476…
06-17 03:59:56	mlb tb lad 2026 06 16	Los Angeles Dodgers	BUY	36	93¢	$33	0x2f3031…
06-17 03:32:15	mlb bal sea 2026 06 16	Seattle Mariners	BUY	34	93¢	$32	0x131ff4…
06-17 02:43:52	mlb laa ari 2026 06 16	Los Angeles Angels	BUY	21	91¢	$19	0xeb5269…
06-17 02:36:24	mlb det hou 2026 06 16	Houston Astros	BUY	24	92¢	$22	0x61b58e…
06-17 02:27:57	mlb col chc 2026 06 16	Colorado Rockies	BUY	38	91¢	$34	0x41620e…
06-17 02:25:51	mlb sd stl 2026 06 16	St. Louis Cardinals	BUY	36	91¢	$33	0x52ba97…
06-17 01:56:38	mlb cle mil 2026 06 16	Milwaukee Brewers	BUY	29	92¢	$27	0xd18a90…
06-17 01:46:16	mlb nym cin 2026 06 16	Cincinnati Reds	BUY	41	94¢	$38	0xd4be3e…
06-17 00:14:56	atp villanu torres 2026 06 15	Gonzalo Villanueva	SELL	44	100¢	$44	0x4eb362…
06-17 00:08:35	atp villanu torres 2026 06 15	Gonzalo Villanueva	BUY	16	91¢	$14	0xf8d668…
06-17 00:08:34	atp villanu torres 2026 06 15	Gonzalo Villanueva	BUY	9	91¢	$8	0x977f12…
06-17 00:08:32	atp villanu torres 2026 06 15	Gonzalo Villanueva	BUY	19	91¢	$17	0xce5f1b…
06-16 23:56:26	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	50	95¢	$47	0x98a600…
06-16 18:18:35	Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?	No	BUY	13	92¢	$12	0xe39fdd…
06-16 18:01:23	will falcons reach the grand final at iem cologne major 2026	No	BUY	73	93¢	$68	0x411c5d…
06-16 13:27:40	will bitcoin dip to 65k on june 16	No	SELL	75	77¢	$58	0x224a98…
06-16 12:15:46	will bitcoin dip to 65k on june 16	No	BUY	75	91¢	$69	0xa8c724…
06-16 06:52:24	will russia capture huliaipilske by june 30	No	BUY	7	93¢	$7	0x23afef…
06-16 06:47:43	bitcoin up or down on june 16 2026	Down	SELL	60	82¢	$49	0x9247b9…
06-16 05:44:49	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 19 2026 475	Yes	BUY	43	91¢	$39	0xa26a43…
06-16 05:36:09	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 16 2026 20260612160513701	No	SELL	7	74¢	$5	0x2441ef…
06-16 05:00:27	Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	40	95¢	$38	0xf6e6de…
06-16 02:20:58	bitcoin up or down on june 16 2026	Down	BUY	60	91¢	$55	0x75ba6b…
06-16 00:01:12	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	78	95¢	$74	0x2d9d9d…
06-16 00:01:10	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30?	No	BUY	7	93¢	$6	0x5c02fd…
06-15 12:52:31	ethereum above 1800 on june 15 2026	No	SELL	15	86¢	$13	0x7aacbb…
06-15 12:17:00	wta timofee zarazua 2026 06 13	Renata Zarazua	BUY	99	92¢	$91	0x7dc792…
06-15 11:45:57	wta siniako yuan 2026 06 13	Katerina Siniakova	SELL	93	92¢	$85	0x02b091…
06-15 11:40:37	wta siniako yuan 2026 06 13	Katerina Siniakova	BUY	93	94¢	$87	0x003523…
06-15 10:24:12	wta brockma parks 2026 06 13	Tessa Brockmann	SELL	63	92¢	$58	0xfe3500…
06-15 10:18:54	wta brockma parks 2026 06 13	Tessa Brockmann	BUY	63	90¢	$57	0xbec723…
06-15 10:13:52	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	Yes	BUY	81	91¢	$74	0x48fca6…
06-15 08:38:03	wta sun kalinin 2026 06 13	Anhelina Kalinina	BUY	72	94¢	$68	0xc7ca8c…
06-15 08:30:57	wta parry seidel 2026 06 13	Diane Parry	BUY	86	95¢	$81	0xb44c5d…
06-15 07:26:19	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 16 2026 20260612160513701	No	BUY	7	92¢	$6	0x8615fc…
06-15 07:22:37	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 18 2026	No	SELL	101	75¢	$76	0xbf0211…
06-15 07:14:16	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 17 2026 20260612163100185 516	No	BUY	60	91¢	$55	0x8a0223…