Smug-Variability — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$223.1K

Unrealized P&L

+$263

Hit rate

58.5%

Resolved

22,960

Trades

135,078

lifetime

Volume

$11.4M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$84

Open exposure

$32.8K

8 positions

First seen

2026-04-03

last 10-30 16:55

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 187 days

Categories

Other

76% 46% -$365,226

Sports

24% 51% +$140,343

Pop-Culture

0% 67% +$2,594

Politics

0% 50% -$795

Crypto

0% 100% +$17

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 1246 trades/day

Open positions (8) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Spread: Raptors (-5.5)	Raptors		+22,820	$11,793	50¢	$11.5K	-$269	10-30 15:33
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-10-30?	Yes		+12,949	$9,712	78¢	$10.0K	+$324	10-30 15:11
Spread: Pistons (-7.5)	Nets		+10,142	$4,877	48¢	$4.8K	-$59	10-30 11:41
Spread: Pistons (-7.5)	Pistons		+8,345	$4,172	52¢	$4.4K	+$209	10-30 11:38
Knicks vs. 76ers	76ers		+2,626	$1,234	46¢	$1.2K	-$13	10-30 15:59
Spread: Lakers (-3.5)	Lakers		+1,268	$596	48¢	$615	+$19	10-30 12:15
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-10-30?	Yes	—	+169	$105	94¢	$158	+$53	10-30 16:51
Lakers vs. Warriors: O/U 235.5	Over		+16	$8	46¢	$7	$0	10-30 06:23

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 btts	317	$50.0K	83,926	0	+83,926	No	-$49,996	07-14 09:37
fifwc mex ecu 2026 06 30 corners total 7pt5	178	$39.0K	62,473	13,368	+49,105	Over	+$24,751	07-01 03:28
cs2 vp inox 2026 06 12	97	$35.9K	55,522	0	+55,522	cancelled	-$8,116	06-12 11:26
fifwc fra mar 2026 07 09 btts	649	$35.0K	70,000	0	+70,000	No	-$35,000	07-09 14:24
atp mikrut moelle 2026 06 05	144	$33.3K	47,640	0	+47,640	Luka Mikrut	+$8,695	06-05 17:11
fifwc ger kor 2026 06 14 total 1pt5	21	$28.8K	30,553	0	+30,553	Over	+$1,706	06-14 07:50
mlb hou sd 2026 08 09 total 8pt5	3	$27.5K	51,000	0	+51,000	Over	+$23,460	08-10 00:13
fifwc bra nor 2026 07 05 btts	266	$27.2K	45,174	0	+45,174	Yes	+$17,970	07-05 12:32
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-09-18?	15	$25.8K	51,000	0	+51,000	Yes	-$255	09-17 18:18
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 3 - 2 Norway?	27	$25.5K	26,141	0	+26,141	No	+$601	06-30 15:17
England vs. Argentina: Neither team to score first?	47	$24.8K	27,607	80	+27,527	No	+$2,822	07-15 20:07
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-08-31?	13	$24.5K	25,500	0	+25,500	No	+$1,020	08-30 15:34
fifwc prt uzb 2026 06 23 goals cristiano ronaldo gte1	310	$23.8K	40,001	0	+40,001	Yes	+$15,788	06-23 16:43
fifwc eng gha 2026 06 23 total 2pt5	30	$23.2K	40,000	0	+40,000	Under	-$23,209	06-23 20:15
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-08-26?	15	$23.2K	25,500	0	+25,500	No	+$2,295	08-25 17:38
wnba atl chi 2026 06 09	84	$23.2K	29,230	0	+29,230	Atlanta Dream	+$6,051	06-09 18:47
fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 team total away 0pt5	53	$23.1K	30,000	0	+30,000	Over	+$6,900	07-18 19:36
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-09-06?	13	$22.9K	24,862	0	+24,862	No	+$1,989	09-05 22:03
fifwc rsa can 2026 06 28 total 2pt5	369	$22.4K	46,451	0	+46,451	Under	-$7,175	06-28 14:46
Egypt to score first vs. Australia?	149	$22.3K	43,685	0	+43,685	Yes	+$21,358	07-03 16:59
Switzerland vs. Colombia: Neither team to score first?	30	$22.2K	24,418	0	+24,418	Yes	-$22,182	07-07 18:38
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	36	$21.9K	25,500	0	+25,500	Yes	+$3,570	06-27 23:31
fifwc mex kr 2026 06 18 btts	207	$21.7K	41,415	0	+41,415	No	-$21,716	06-18 23:32
Aston Villa FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 0.5	11	$21.2K	21,811	0	+21,811	Over	+$587	10-24 06:19
Norway vs. England: Neither team to score first?	31	$20.8K	21,942	0	+21,942	No	+$1,111	07-11 15:34
val pr1 vit 2026 06 15	32	$20.6K	32,206	0	+32,206	Paper Rex	+$11,592	06-14 23:22
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Argentina?	26	$20.5K	20,835	0	+20,835	No	+$302	07-14 22:06
fifwc mex ecu 2026 06 30 corners total 6pt5	161	$20.3K	29,721	0	+29,721	Over	+$9,328	07-01 00:14
fifwc can mar 2026 07 04 total 0pt5	36	$20.2K	21,925	0	+21,925	Over	+$1,754	07-04 14:29
fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 btts	80	$19.9K	37,150	0	+37,150	No	-$19,881	07-19 06:07

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 17:52:03	Le Havre AC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	36	87¢	$32	0x27d919…
10-30 17:52:01	Le Havre AC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	364	87¢	$317	0x441391…
10-30 17:51:55	Le Havre AC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	15	87¢	$13	0xcc5c03…
10-30 17:51:55	Le Havre AC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	77	87¢	$67	0xa2339c…
10-30 17:51:55	Le Havre AC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	19	87¢	$16	0x8d0806…
10-30 17:51:55	Le Havre AC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	1,661	87¢	$1,445	0x698708…
10-30 17:51:55	Le Havre AC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	69	87¢	$60	0x191380…
10-30 17:49:10	Spread: Rockets (-10.5)	Mavericks	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0xae5bcd…
10-30 17:48:24	FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Viking FK: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	2,000	93¢	$1,860	0xb192b7…
10-30 17:48:22	FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Viking FK: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	2,000	93¢	$1,860	0xcfef85…
10-30 17:48:22	FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Viking FK: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	646	93¢	$601	0x2b0150…
10-30 17:48:22	FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Viking FK: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	191	93¢	$178	0x07bb55…
10-30 17:44:25	Tulane vs. Charlotte: O/U 47.5	Over	BUY	22	48¢	$11	0x6fd0b5…
10-30 17:40:28	Will OGC Nice vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901 end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	1,600	27¢	$432	0xf425ac…
10-30 17:37:31	Franz Wagner: Assists O/U 5.5	No	BUY	63	40¢	$25	0x903ba5…
10-30 17:37:31	Franz Wagner: Assists O/U 5.5	No	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x6e759a…
10-30 17:32:54	Lakers vs. Warriors: O/U 217.5	Over	BUY	170	86¢	$146	0x0fe827…
10-30 17:30:06	Devils vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	51	45¢	$23	0x91621a…
10-30 17:27:18	Paris Saint-Germain FC leading at halftime?	Yes	BUY	45	57¢	$26	0xe8dfe8…
10-30 17:19:06	Harvard vs. Dartmouth	Dartmouth	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0xcc7e0c…
10-30 17:19:06	Harvard vs. Dartmouth	Dartmouth	BUY	8	24¢	$2	0x53892f…
10-30 17:15:07	1H Spread: Rockets (-3.5)	Mavericks	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xaec95b…
10-30 17:13:12	Lakers vs. Warriors: O/U 217.5	Over	BUY	267	86¢	$230	0x223fec…
10-30 17:11:57	Hornets vs. Wizards: O/U 223.5	Under	BUY	15	60¢	$9	0x378892…
10-30 17:08:39	Harvard vs. Dartmouth	Dartmouth	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0xfdad1a…
10-30 17:04:55	OGC Nice vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	367	41¢	$150	0x3cbe98…
10-30 17:03:52	Ayo Dosunmu: Assists O/U 3.5	No	BUY	19	40¢	$8	0x9e2ad2…
10-30 17:00:57	Rockets vs. Mavericks: O/U 235.5	Over	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0x6683ab…
10-30 16:55:51	Lakers vs. Warriors: O/U 217.5	Over	BUY	7	85¢	$6	0xc0ab09…
10-30 16:55:51	Lakers vs. Warriors: O/U 217.5	Over	BUY	112	85¢	$95	0xbf1d84…
10-30 16:52:37	Spread: Rockets (-8.5)	Mavericks	BUY	163	58¢	$95	0xde4206…
10-30 16:51:06	Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-10-30?	Yes	BUY	105	63¢	$66	0xe7b133…
10-30 16:50:21	Kym vs. Lehecka: Match O/U 23.5	Over	BUY	59	47¢	$28	0x53d033…
10-30 16:47:10	Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)	Nuggets	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0xc462fc…
10-30 16:42:13	SV 07 Elversberg vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 1.5	Under	BUY	736	17¢	$125	0x7ac219…
10-30 16:42:10	SV 07 Elversberg vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 1.5	Under	BUY	48	17¢	$8	0xaae8c5…
10-30 16:42:10	SV 07 Elversberg vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 1.5	Under	BUY	220	17¢	$37	0x9a9393…
10-30 16:40:49	Paris Saint-Germain FC leading at halftime?	Yes	BUY	29	57¢	$17	0x953e73…
10-30 16:40:49	Paris Saint-Germain FC leading at halftime?	Yes	BUY	806	58¢	$467	0x41ce12…
10-30 16:29:22	Spread: Rockets (-8.5)	Mavericks	BUY	444	58¢	$258	0x02bf5b…
10-30 16:23:49	Nuggets vs. Suns: O/U 231.5	Over	BUY	437	50¢	$218	0x433b53…
10-30 16:20:33	Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 24.5	No	BUY	6	55¢	$3	0x1eb6ca…
10-30 16:05:33	OGC Nice vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xc7ac0c…
10-30 16:04:55	Nuggets vs. Suns	Suns	BUY	1,402	39¢	$547	0xafaf0c…
10-30 16:03:09	Kraken vs. Flames: O/U 5.5	Over	BUY	11	60¢	$7	0xa1f13a…
10-30 16:00:16	Spread: Celtics (-25.5)	Celtics	BUY	160	23¢	$37	0x539115…
10-30 15:59:42	Knicks vs. 76ers	76ers	BUY	6	47¢	$3	0x06a63e…
10-30 15:58:15	Spread: Kraken (-2.5)	Kraken	BUY	16	20¢	$3	0xffcda6…
10-30 15:52:39	Spread: Baylor (-3.5)	Baylor	BUY	125	41¢	$51	0x165281…
10-30 15:51:25	OGC Nice vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	17	40¢	$7	0x1aec9f…
10-30 15:41:49	Spread: Knicks (-2.5)	Knicks	BUY	599	48¢	$288	0xc93f82…
10-30 15:33:04	Spread: Raptors (-5.5)	Raptors	BUY	1,877	51¢	$957	0x9696cc…
10-30 15:33:04	Spread: Raptors (-5.5)	Raptors	BUY	99	51¢	$50	0x18992d…
10-30 15:33:01	Spread: Raptors (-5.5)	Raptors	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xd94601…
10-30 15:33:01	Spread: Raptors (-5.5)	Raptors	BUY	15	51¢	$8	0xd76412…
10-30 15:33:01	Spread: Raptors (-5.5)	Raptors	BUY	58	51¢	$30	0xcf7d48…
10-30 15:33:01	Spread: Raptors (-5.5)	Raptors	BUY	197	51¢	$100	0xcf079e…
10-30 15:33:01	Spread: Raptors (-5.5)	Raptors	BUY	2,000	52¢	$1,040	0xcbc334…
10-30 15:33:01	Spread: Raptors (-5.5)	Raptors	BUY	2,000	52¢	$1,040	0xb213cd…
10-30 15:33:01	Spread: Raptors (-5.5)	Raptors	BUY	2,000	52¢	$1,040	0xa09722…
10-30 15:33:01	Spread: Raptors (-5.5)	Raptors	BUY	2,000	52¢	$1,040	0x958dca…
10-30 15:33:01	Spread: Raptors (-5.5)	Raptors	BUY	2,000	52¢	$1,040	0x8b3a99…
10-30 15:33:01	Spread: Raptors (-5.5)	Raptors	BUY	2,000	52¢	$1,040	0x719c51…
10-30 15:33:01	Spread: Raptors (-5.5)	Raptors	BUY	1,395	52¢	$725	0x6ac9d4…
10-30 15:33:01	Spread: Raptors (-5.5)	Raptors	BUY	118	51¢	$60	0x61da67…
10-30 15:33:01	Spread: Raptors (-5.5)	Raptors	BUY	97	51¢	$49	0x4c44cb…
10-30 15:33:01	Spread: Raptors (-5.5)	Raptors	BUY	5	51¢	$2	0x34dcb8…
10-30 15:33:01	Spread: Raptors (-5.5)	Raptors	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x1d2aeb…
10-30 15:33:01	Spread: Raptors (-5.5)	Raptors	BUY	2,000	52¢	$1,040	0x02cc6f…
10-30 15:29:58	Spread: Knicks (-6.5)	Knicks	BUY	15	35¢	$5	0xf10c68…
10-30 15:29:34	Levante UD vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Club Atlético de Madrid O/U 5.5 Corners	Over	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x0dd534…
10-30 15:29:30	Hornets vs. Wizards: O/U 219.5	Over	BUY	66	50¢	$33	0x81e92d…
10-30 15:29:12	Hornets vs. Wizards: O/U 219.5	Over	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x8ee707…
10-30 15:25:06	Exact Score: Le Havre AC 1 - 5 Paris Saint-Germain FC?	Yes	BUY	110	3¢	$3	0xc68bd8…
10-30 15:22:42	Spread: 76ers (-4.5)	Knicks	BUY	9	65¢	$6	0xe202ef…
10-30 15:19:19	Kym vs. Lehecka: Match O/U 23.5	Over	BUY	7	47¢	$3	0x6209cd…
10-30 15:19:19	Kym vs. Lehecka: Match O/U 23.5	Over	BUY	117	47¢	$55	0x3669e3…
10-30 15:19:12	Spread: Kraken (-2.5)	Kraken	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0x8380b1…
10-30 15:16:39	Berrettini vs. Minaur: Match O/U 23.5	Over	BUY	84	45¢	$38	0xf88fb3…
10-30 15:15:13	Spread: Celtics (-31.5)	Celtics	BUY	39	12¢	$5	0x766fed…
10-30 15:11:43	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-10-30?	Yes	BUY	35	75¢	$26	0xe6c6e5…
10-30 15:11:39	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-10-30?	Yes	BUY	491	75¢	$368	0x60dd21…
10-30 15:11:03	1H Spread: Baylor (-1.5)	Baylor	BUY	53	47¢	$25	0x47d281…
10-30 15:10:18	FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Viking FK: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	573	92¢	$527	0xc58957…
10-30 15:09:49	Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 5.5	No	BUY	48	45¢	$22	0x0f96b4…
10-30 15:09:48	Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 5.5	No	BUY	12	45¢	$5	0x4988c7…
10-30 15:06:03	Villarreal CF vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Under	BUY	76	45¢	$34	0xed7da3…
10-30 15:05:51	Exact Score: Le Havre AC 1 - 5 Paris Saint-Germain FC?	Yes	BUY	86	3¢	$2	0xda57b5…
10-30 15:05:49	Exact Score: Le Havre AC 1 - 5 Paris Saint-Germain FC?	Yes	BUY	250	3¢	$7	0xf66706…
10-30 15:04:46	Villarreal CF vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Under	BUY	80	45¢	$36	0x45cd41…
10-30 15:00:43	Hornets vs. Wizards: O/U 219.5	Over	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0xcc79c2…
10-30 15:00:25	Hornets vs. Wizards: O/U 219.5	Over	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0xfc377c…
10-30 15:00:24	Hornets vs. Wizards: O/U 219.5	Over	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0xa31a64…
10-30 14:58:30	1H Spread: Baylor (-1.5)	Baylor	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0x032859…
10-30 14:58:24	1H Spread: Baylor (-1.5)	Baylor	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0x0008f6…
10-30 14:58:18	1H Spread: Baylor (-1.5)	Baylor	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x1e4d8c…
10-30 14:50:03	1H Spread: Baylor (-1.5)	Baylor	BUY	208	47¢	$98	0xb6c532…
10-30 14:42:57	1H Spread: Baylor (-1.5)	Baylor	BUY	31	47¢	$15	0xf0d730…
10-30 14:41:58	1H Spread: Baylor (-1.5)	Baylor	BUY	105	47¢	$49	0x906406…
10-30 14:24:43	Spread: 76ers (-1.5)	76ers	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0xe7f4a3…