Arid-Deviance — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.37K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

82.6%

Resolved

2,278

Trades

4,282

lifetime

Volume

$51.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$12

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-20

last 10-30 15:47

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 154 days

Categories

Crypto

98% 65% -$1,197

Other

2% 42% -$97

Sports

0% 31% -$93

Politics

0% 100% +$18

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

51 active days in 12wk • peak 286 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 00:00 UTC	2	$659	381	377	+4	Down	+$25	03-30 00:03
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-29 23:35 UTC	2	$628	334	334	+0	Down	+$10	03-29 23:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-29 22:25 UTC	2	$592	380	377	+3	Down	+$11	03-29 22:27
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 01:45 UTC	2	$570	348	343	+5	Up	+$67	03-30 01:47
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-29 22:10 UTC	2	$537	337	333	+4	Down	+$72	03-29 22:12
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-29 20:00 UTC	4	$530	283	283	+1	Up	+$6	03-29 20:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-29 20:40 UTC	2	$515	276	276	+1	Down	+$20	03-29 20:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 01:40 UTC	2	$503	281	279	+2	Up	+$8	03-30 01:43
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-24 23:45 UTC	4	$487	276	274	+1	Down	+$33	03-24 23:50
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 03:05 UTC	2	$482	460	452	+8	Up	+$57	03-30 03:06
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 01:35 UTC	2	$463	387	380	+7	Down	+$47	03-30 01:36
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-29 22:00 UTC	2	$448	240	240	+0	Down	+$7	03-29 22:01
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-24 22:45 UTC	4	$441	346	342	+3	Up	+$13	03-24 22:47
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-25 00:25 UTC	4	$433	298	296	+2	Up	+$2	03-25 00:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-29 21:55 UTC	2	$417	612	605	+7	Up	+$30	03-29 21:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 00:50 UTC	4	$415	214	214	+1	Down	+$7	03-30 00:55
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 01:25 UTC	2	$413	252	249	+3	Up	+$17	03-30 01:28
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 02:50 UTC	2	$411	264	260	+4	Down	+$32	03-30 02:50
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 00:05 UTC	3	$409	868	97	+771	Up	-$337	03-30 00:09
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-29 19:50 UTC	2	$408	290	286	+4	Down	+$36	03-29 19:52
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 02:15 UTC	2	$395	332	327	+6	Down	+$1	03-30 02:15
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-29 19:35 UTC	2	$372	192	192	+0	Down	+$4	03-29 19:38
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-29 16:05 UTC	2	$364	277	274	+4	Up	+$5	03-29 16:06
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-25 00:20 UTC	4	$343	259	256	+3	Down	+$7	03-25 00:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-29 22:35 UTC	2	$317	174	173	+1	Down	+$17	03-29 22:37
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 02:00 UTC	1	$314	342	0	+342	Down	-$314	03-30 02:03
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-29 23:20 UTC	2	$309	167	167	+0	Down	+$9	03-29 23:22
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 03:20 UTC	2	$306	448	440	+8	Up	-$216	03-30 03:23
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-06 11:00 UTC	2	$296	192	189	+3	Down	+$11	04-06 11:01
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-24 22:25 UTC	2	$294	171	170	+1	Down	+$22	03-24 22:28

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 15:47:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Down	SELL	10	84¢	$8	0xef154d…
10-30 15:44:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Down	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x9b43f1…
10-30 15:34:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Down	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0xdd0038…
10-30 15:21:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Down	SELL	10	95¢	$9	0xd9cec2…
10-30 15:18:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Down	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xc01017…
10-30 15:12:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Down	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0xce89e1…
10-30 14:32:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	SELL	4	93¢	$4	0xa2939b…
10-30 14:29:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0x5dd852…
10-30 14:11:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	SELL	10	86¢	$9	0x3520d3…
10-30 14:09:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xb39e12…
10-30 14:03:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0xc94c57…
10-30 13:58:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	Down	SELL	3	93¢	$3	0xab0371…
10-30 13:48:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0xc8b8e9…
10-30 13:33:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Down	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x6e9914…
10-30 13:30:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Down	BUY	3	78¢	$2	0x31f6f8…
10-30 13:10:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xb4b0a1…
10-30 13:04:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xa8e072…
10-30 12:26:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Down	SELL	6	86¢	$5	0xd5b05d…
10-30 12:11:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0xf4abeb…
10-30 11:58:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xbaac10…
10-30 10:56:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	84¢	$2	0xe25a26…
10-30 10:51:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Down	SELL	2	80¢	$2	0x1aca23…
10-30 10:49:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x097924…
10-30 10:46:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Down	SELL	4	66¢	$3	0x568cc6…
10-30 10:43:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Down	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0xdf36fd…
10-30 10:06:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	SELL	2	84¢	$1	0xd6cf8c…
10-30 10:04:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xa301ad…
10-30 09:44:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x8a473a…
10-30 09:29:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x818014…
10-30 09:14:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xa58cb0…
10-30 09:02:34	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-30 09:00 UTC	Down	SELL	4	65¢	$3	0x1f9dd2…
10-30 08:59:54	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-30 09:00 UTC	Down	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0xdebe94…
10-30 00:35:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET	Up	SELL	2	66¢	$1	0x97f7bd…
10-30 00:31:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xb310fb…
10-29 14:50:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	Down	SELL	4	96¢	$4	0x3ee84c…
10-29 14:42:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0xb36895…
10-29 14:29:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x203d66…
10-29 14:27:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Down	SELL	4	96¢	$4	0x972a94…
10-29 14:14:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0xca9a69…
10-29 13:49:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	Up	SELL	4	65¢	$3	0x801e05…
10-29 13:44:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0x385bbe…
10-29 13:39:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Down	SELL	4	97¢	$4	0xc99bf7…
10-29 13:29:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0xbf55dd…
10-29 13:15:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xe3855b…
10-29 10:39:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	Up	SELL	3	97¢	$3	0xd2a136…
10-29 10:32:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	Up	BUY	3	87¢	$3	0x353a20…
10-29 10:13:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET	Down	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0x7da1fb…
10-29 10:03:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0x7ee3e9…
10-29 09:59:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Up	SELL	4	83¢	$3	0xa6418c…
10-29 09:57:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0xc39fd5…
10-29 09:55:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	82¢	$2	0xb5cd79…
10-29 09:43:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xd134f3…
10-29 09:42:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	84¢	$2	0x57bdca…
10-28 23:59:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET	Up	SELL	4	97¢	$3	0xf7dc7e…
10-28 23:58:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	4	84¢	$3	0x52f7f5…
10-28 23:52:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET	Down	SELL	2	89¢	$2	0xe39caf…
10-28 23:46:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x82c86f…
10-28 19:43:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x8ad406…
10-28 19:33:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	82¢	$2	0x1a1ff5…
10-28 13:28:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Down	SELL	4	99¢	$3	0x09568d…
10-28 13:24:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	4	85¢	$3	0xc3fdb1…
10-28 13:12:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	3	88¢	$3	0xe937d0…
10-28 12:41:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Down	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x2a5d2d…
10-28 12:37:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	3	94¢	$3	0x100ca2…
10-28 00:59:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0xc81914…
10-28 00:48:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	7	54¢	$4	0xf37451…
10-28 00:42:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET	Up	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0xdbc851…
10-27 13:09:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Down	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0xf587e4…
10-27 13:04:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	3	87¢	$3	0x98bd3a…
10-27 11:28:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET	Down	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xd47474…
10-27 11:15:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x5c4c9f…
10-27 10:26:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	Up	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x6fb464…
10-27 10:21:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	Up	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0x00d1e0…
10-26 01:23:32	Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	35	100¢	$35	0x23d318…
10-25 10:02:45	Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	35	49¢	$17	0x34715d…
10-24 22:52:06	Texas A&M vs. Alabama: O/U 61.5	Over	SELL	3	14¢	$0	0x08b19a…
10-24 22:34:14	Texas A&M vs. Alabama: O/U 61.5	Over	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x8186e8…
10-24 17:47:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	SELL	8	96¢	$7	0xa10ab3…
10-24 17:45:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	BUY	8	53¢	$4	0x97c2e1…
10-24 17:42:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	3	94¢	$3	0xa44709…
10-24 17:23:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	SELL	4	93¢	$4	0x1d4fe0…
10-24 17:21:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	BUY	4	78¢	$3	0xb21350…
10-24 16:21:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	SELL	9	88¢	$8	0x5c6aa2…
10-24 16:19:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0x011284…
10-24 16:17:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	BUY	3	78¢	$2	0x4acdb4…
10-24 16:12:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	SELL	2	94¢	$2	0xbf3076…
10-24 16:11:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	83¢	$2	0x90975d…
10-24 16:03:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Down	SELL	3	78¢	$2	0xc768fc…
10-24 16:02:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	3	76¢	$2	0x5fbe1c…
10-24 15:41:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Down	SELL	2	70¢	$1	0xcfec88…
10-24 15:39:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x664042…
10-24 15:33:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	SELL	3	98¢	$3	0x7d39de…
10-24 15:32:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	3	78¢	$2	0x1e3f44…
10-24 15:06:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	Down	SELL	4	95¢	$4	0x0a27b9…
10-24 15:04:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	4	80¢	$3	0xec0029…
10-24 14:16:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	3	93¢	$3	0xa4d569…
10-24 14:13:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Down	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0xa3f2a9…
10-24 14:11:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	82¢	$2	0xdeda69…
10-21 23:34:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Down	SELL	3	98¢	$3	0x4a0409…
10-21 23:31:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Down	BUY	3	89¢	$3	0x7c122d…