Front-Smell — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$274

Unrealized P&L

-$29

Hit rate

59.5%

Resolved

Trades

113

lifetime

Volume

$5.72K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$51

Open exposure

$46

1 position

First seen

2026-01-05

last 10-26 09:36

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 29 days

Categories

Politics

72% 22% +$109

Other

24% 40% +$313

Crypto

3% 10% -$147

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

15 active days in 12wk • peak 14 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	No		+1,834	$75	2¢	$46	-$29	10-26 09:36

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	7	$1.2K	1,064	1,064	+0	Yes	+$772	02-28 23:01
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	8	$715	1,904	1,904	+0	Yes	+$154	01-31 03:22
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?	7	$522	680	1,244	-564	No	+$177	02-20 11:57
nothing ever happens khamenei	3	$518	398	398	+0	No	+$258	02-28 23:01
iran leadership change by march 31	4	$439	1,208	1,208	+0	No	-$100	03-21 05:35
Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?	7	$394	5,312	3,986	+1,326	Yes	-$188	09-22 15:51
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	5	$267	7,888	7,888	+0	Yes	-$95	09-17 04:30
Iran leadership change by May 31?	5	$244	899	899	+0	No	+$1	05-10 10:35
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	2	$241	423	423	+0	No	-$4	05-10 16:12
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	2	$111	300	300	+0	No	-$69	05-23 20:50
will a gulf state strike iran by march 7	3	$108	260	260	+0	No	-$50	03-05 14:39
Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	2	$104	570	0	+570	No	-$104	05-26 17:36
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	4	$97	922	922	+0	No	-$78	01-30 13:15
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	2	$91	132	132	+0	No	+$12	01-14 09:21
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?	3	$85	1,049	0	+1,049	No	-$85	08-30 21:44
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	1	$75	1,834	0	+1,834	open	—	10-26 09:36
Will Bulgaria win on 2026-09-29?	2	$69	154	154	+0	No	-$11	09-29 20:26
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	2	$67	1,036	1,036	+0	Yes	-$33	10-22 19:13
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	1	$64	289	0	+289	No	-$64	09-13 18:06
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	3	$30	394	0	+394	Up	-$30	10-02 10:19
highest temperature in london on april 11 2026 14c	1	$25	316	0	+316	Yes	-$25	04-11 14:35
Iran leadership change by April 30?	1	$23	1,176	0	+1,176	No	-$23	04-27 11:59
bitcoin up or down february 3 12pm et	2	$22	1,117	0	+1,117	Down	-$22	02-03 17:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	2	$21	18	18	+0	Down	+$11	10-02 13:49
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-03 14:45 UTC	5	$18	222	0	+222	Up	-$18	10-03 14:46
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	2	$16	53	53	+0	No	-$7	01-29 10:28
bitcoin up or down february 4 11am et	2	$15	139	0	+139	Down	-$15	02-04 16:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	2	$15	12	12	+0	Up	+$5	10-02 10:26
will trump say crypto or bitcoin during no tax on tips roundtable 353 666	1	$15	249	0	+249	No	-$15	04-16 20:16
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	1	$15	1,488	0	+1,488	No	-$15	08-18 07:31

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 09:36:33	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	No	BUY	1,834	4¢	$75	0x2a2e20…
10-22 19:13:50	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	SELL	1,036	2¢	$17	0xe7be0c…
10-22 14:12:56	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	BUY	1,036	5¢	$50	0x4be17a…
10-22 11:39:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Down	BUY	808	0¢	$1	0x9e17a4…
10-22 11:36:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Down	BUY	167	3¢	$5	0x21853d…
10-03 14:46:54	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-03 14:45 UTC	Down	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0xe05b53…
10-03 14:46:15	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-03 14:45 UTC	Down	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xd2cff3…
10-03 14:46:14	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-03 14:45 UTC	Down	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xe67fff…
10-03 14:46:09	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-03 14:45 UTC	Down	BUY	56	9¢	$5	0x113125…
10-03 14:46:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-03 14:45 UTC	Down	BUY	111	9¢	$10	0x0555bb…
10-03 14:44:02	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-03 14:40 UTC	Up	BUY	56	9¢	$5	0xae17b0…
10-03 08:49:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Down	BUY	167	3¢	$5	0xd7749b…
10-02 16:44:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Down	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x85b4e9…
10-02 13:53:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Up	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x6e7e0f…
10-02 13:53:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Up	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x1073b9…
10-02 13:49:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	SELL	18	87¢	$16	0x36ef81…
10-02 13:46:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0xbe6d78…
10-02 13:44:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x75b16a…
10-02 11:04:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Down	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x968457…
10-02 10:26:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Up	SELL	12	84¢	$10	0xc5fd03…
10-02 10:25:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Up	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0xaab3ec…
10-02 10:19:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Down	BUY	250	4¢	$10	0xede78a…
10-02 10:17:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Down	BUY	77	13¢	$10	0x9064cb…
10-02 10:17:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Down	BUY	67	15¢	$10	0x7476ea…
10-02 10:13:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Up	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x942792…
10-02 10:12:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Up	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0xa575ad…
09-30 14:04:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 14:00 UTC	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x9a4a9d…
09-30 14:04:39	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 14:00 UTC	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x10f1db…
09-30 13:59:20	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 13:55 UTC	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xabe6ea…
09-29 20:26:12	Will Bulgaria win on 2026-09-29?	Yes	SELL	154	19¢	$29	0x567e1f…
09-29 20:17:59	Will Bulgaria win on 2026-09-29?	Yes	BUY	154	26¢	$40	0xb08364…
09-26 13:13:12	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 13:10 UTC	Up	BUY	167	3¢	$5	0xb491eb…
09-22 15:51:49	Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xf2df0a…
09-22 15:28:25	Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?	No	BUY	326	2¢	$5	0xefde80…
09-22 13:12:01	Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?	No	SELL	3,986	3¢	$103	0x90fc38…
09-22 07:03:36	Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?	No	BUY	1,489	3¢	$50	0xd5e57e…
09-21 18:05:49	Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?	No	BUY	1,058	5¢	$50	0xd9545e…
09-21 17:31:57	Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?	No	BUY	1,111	9¢	$100	0xb6947b…
09-20 18:09:06	Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?	No	BUY	327	26¢	$85	0xef46e0…
09-17 04:30:42	Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	No	SELL	7,888	1¢	$86	0xbd2213…
09-17 03:33:19	Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	No	BUY	5,376	2¢	$104	0x5726a8…
09-15 17:03:01	Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	No	BUY	1,827	3¢	$55	0x23d227…
09-15 16:57:07	Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	No	BUY	69	3¢	$2	0x737713…
09-15 13:19:24	Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	No	BUY	616	3¢	$20	0x132342…
09-13 18:06:09	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	289	22¢	$64	0x5e4b19…
08-30 21:44:03	Iran full airspace closure by August 31?	Yes	BUY	307	8¢	$25	0xfb0ffb…
08-30 21:43:51	Iran full airspace closure by August 31?	Yes	BUY	466	5¢	$25	0x9f7192…
08-30 21:25:48	Iran full airspace closure by August 31?	Yes	BUY	276	13¢	$35	0x13a5f4…
08-18 07:31:49	Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	Yes	BUY	1,488	1¢	$15	0x9b5946…
05-26 17:36:01	Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	427	18¢	$77	0x966d24…
05-26 14:53:23	Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	143	19¢	$27	0x5c8201…
05-23 20:50:24	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	No	SELL	300	7¢	$21	0x8871ce…
05-22 18:33:42	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	No	BUY	300	30¢	$90	0xfb7b00…
05-10 16:49:53	Solana Up or Down - May 10, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Down	BUY	31	6¢	$2	0x668d2f…
05-10 16:18:37	Solana Up or Down - May 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x8be78f…
05-10 16:17:58	Solana Up or Down - May 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x21eb0a…
05-10 16:16:15	Solana Up or Down - May 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	BUY	25	12¢	$3	0x37512a…
05-10 16:12:48	Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	423	28¢	$118	0x714ee9…
05-10 10:38:09	Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	423	29¢	$123	0x25cfac…
05-10 10:35:33	Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	SELL	275	6¢	$16	0x238a12…
05-01 20:07:58	Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	BUY	25	8¢	$2	0xc62f8d…
05-01 20:07:42	Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	BUY	250	8¢	$20	0x312e30…
04-27 11:59:40	Iran leadership change by April 30?	Yes	BUY	1,176	2¢	$23	0x7a3058…
04-16 20:16:02	will trump say crypto or bitcoin during no tax on tips roundtable 353 666	Yes	BUY	249	6¢	$15	0x717fc1…
04-11 14:35:13	highest temperature in london on april 11 2026 14c	No	BUY	316	8¢	$25	0x6b1b8c…
04-08 14:56:23	Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	SELL	624	17¢	$106	0x2e584b…
04-06 14:32:15	Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	BUY	624	16¢	$100	0xb95911…
03-21 05:35:27	iran leadership change by march 31	Yes	SELL	583	13¢	$76	0xe4127b…
03-17 17:02:07	iran leadership change by march 31	Yes	BUY	583	12¢	$70	0xa9950c…
03-16 05:50:13	iran leadership change by march 31	Yes	SELL	625	15¢	$94	0x38d988…
03-10 05:24:53	iran leadership change by march 31	Yes	BUY	625	32¢	$200	0x9b5423…
03-05 14:39:03	will a gulf state strike iran by march 7	Yes	SELL	260	11¢	$29	0x15d05b…
03-04 12:25:23	will a gulf state strike iran by march 7	Yes	BUY	46	31¢	$14	0x4c0721…
03-04 12:24:47	will a gulf state strike iran by march 7	Yes	BUY	214	30¢	$65	0xad0e3b…
02-28 23:01:59	nothing ever happens khamenei	No	SELL	398	97¢	$388	0xa3b8bb…
02-28 23:01:45	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	Yes	SELL	1,024	97¢	$992	0xe9587a…
02-20 11:57:46	Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?	Yes	BUY	501	24¢	$120	0x03aaca…
02-04 16:39:05	bitcoin up or down february 4 11am et	Up	BUY	62	8¢	$5	0x3f16d9…
02-04 16:37:49	bitcoin up or down february 4 11am et	Up	BUY	77	13¢	$10	0x7ac89f…
02-04 08:20:52	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	286	14¢	$40	0x94275e…
02-03 18:48:08	bitcoin up or down february 3 1pm et	Up	BUY	553	1¢	$5	0x58f3b3…
02-03 17:50:50	bitcoin up or down february 3 12pm et	Up	BUY	980	0¢	$2	0xcc9094…
02-03 17:29:12	bitcoin up or down february 3 12pm et	Up	BUY	137	15¢	$20	0x0389a3…
02-02 10:27:36	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	300	20¢	$60	0x8847a2…
01-31 03:22:22	will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	No	SELL	836	5¢	$44	0xc7d801…
01-31 02:33:40	will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	No	BUY	410	5¢	$20	0x7358dc…
01-31 02:31:20	will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	No	BUY	426	5¢	$23	0x2dfb1b…
01-30 18:41:14	will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	No	SELL	376	13¢	$49	0xc1b537…
01-30 16:46:00	will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	No	BUY	145	11¢	$16	0x26e755…
01-30 13:15:56	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	Yes	SELL	922	1¢	$9	0xa58035…
01-30 01:12:52	will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	No	SELL	231	52¢	$120	0xcd06b0…
01-29 20:41:50	will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	No	SELL	461	48¢	$221	0x8fdacc…
01-29 10:28:22	us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	Yes	SELL	53	9¢	$5	0x6e95e2…
01-25 09:46:54	will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	No	BUY	922	24¢	$221	0xe197a7…
01-25 09:41:54	Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?	Yes	SELL	738	30¢	$221	0x7246c6…
01-18 09:43:28	us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	Yes	BUY	53	22¢	$12	0xc40ad9…
01-18 09:40:34	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	Yes	SELL	40	29¢	$12	0x8d108c…
01-17 17:17:26	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	70	25¢	$17	0xa38506…
01-17 16:33:36	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	Yes	BUY	250	6¢	$15	0x3bbd73…
01-17 16:17:26	Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?	Yes	SELL	5	32¢	$2	0x225a5d…