Stable-Continuity — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$358

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

57.4%

Resolved

294

Trades

968

lifetime

Volume

$3.66K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$10

1 position

First seen

2026-05-22

last 10-15 13:53

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 56 days

Categories

Other

64% 58% +$454

Crypto

35% 37% -$107

Tech

1% 50% +$1

Politics

0% 67% +$11

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

9 active days in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026?	No		+10	$8	93¢	$10	+$1	06-08 10:53

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
nvda above 200 on june 5 2026	19	$169	190	0	+190	Yes	+$21	06-04 02:05
will databricks valuation hit high 180 by july 31 20260629184745124	4	$148	199	0	+199	No	+$51	07-18 09:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	30	$61	132	0	+132	Down	+$9	05-29 05:54
another critical cloudflare incident by september 30 2026 2	4	$58	51	21	+30	No	-$39	08-18 20:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	25	$52	110	0	+110	Up	-$2	05-26 18:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	27	$51	95	0	+95	Up	-$3	05-26 18:09
will nflx reach 82 50 by july 6 2026	1	$49	51	0	+51	No	+$2	07-09 13:32
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	26	$48	105	0	+105	Down	-$8	05-26 17:58
will databricks valuation hit high 190 by july 31 20260629184745123	1	$48	53	0	+53	No	+$5	07-03 19:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	22	$47	105	0	+105	Up	-$2	05-29 04:49
over 10m committed to the multipli public sale	1	$46	51	0	+51	No	+$5	08-18 11:51
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	18	$45	88	0	+88	Up	$0	05-29 04:44
will the highest recorded wind on mtpt washington in july be at least 105 mph 20260626193609217	2	$44	101	0	+101	No	-$44	07-18 11:42
will ewy reach 169 by july 27 2026	1	$44	52	0	+52	No	+$8	07-30 19:59
will ewy reach 168 by july 27 2026	1	$43	53	0	+53	No	+$10	07-30 19:57
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $132 Week of July 27 2026?	1	$42	53	0	+53	No	+$11	07-29 08:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	22	$42	84	0	+84	Up	-$2	05-26 18:14
Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (LOW) $125 in October?	1	$42	54	0	+54	open	—	10-15 13:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	19	$42	85	0	+85	Down	-$2	05-26 18:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	22	$42	105	0	+105	Up	-$2	05-26 16:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	19	$42	95	0	+95	Down	-$2	05-26 16:49
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $315 on July 29?	1	$41	44	0	+44	Yes	+$3	07-29 08:24
will ewy reach 220 in july 2026	1	$41	50	0	+50	No	+$9	07-12 18:21
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	11	$40	50	0	+50	Up	-$40	05-29 04:53
will justin biebers monthly listeners figure hit 130m by august 31 20260710220109218	1	$39	53	0	+53	No	-$39	07-13 01:01
will spy dip to 710 by june 8 2026	5	$38	50	0	+50	No	+$12	06-10 11:36
will open reach 6 00 in july 2026	2	$38	40	0	+40	No	+$2	07-23 18:59
will msft reach 435 in july 2026	1	$36	70	0	+70	Yes	-$36	07-30 13:29
Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	1	$36	40	0	+40	Yes	-$36	07-18 02:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	13	$34	60	0	+60	Up	+$1	05-29 05:02

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-15 13:53:25	Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (LOW) $125 in October?	No	BUY	54	78¢	$42	0xf1a244…
10-09 19:36:50	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.70% in October?	Yes	BUY	20	43¢	$9	0x19078d…
09-01 03:20:22	Another critical Cloudflare incident by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	6	98¢	$6	0x41c3cd…
08-31 22:13:34	Another critical Cloudflare incident by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xe74bd9…
08-19 13:35:55	pltr above 173 on august 21 2026	No	BUY	56	34¢	$19	0x6c8dae…
08-18 20:23:27	another critical cloudflare incident by september 30 2026 2	Yes	SELL	7	41¢	$3	0xb5a52e…
08-18 11:51:28	over 10m committed to the multipli public sale	No	BUY	51	90¢	$46	0x3d3b91…
08-15 12:15:16	will the gta 6 extended look be at least 10 minutes long 20260807064756492	No	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xd13669…
08-12 15:43:01	will spcx reach 142 50 by august 10 2026	No	BUY	34	35¢	$12	0x68dd51…
08-12 15:42:58	will spcx reach 142 50 by august 10 2026	No	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0xd3ac4e…
08-12 15:42:31	will spcx reach 142 50 by august 10 2026	No	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x285bd8…
08-12 15:13:10	will perplexitys valuation hit high 20b by august 31 20260730185559505	No	BUY	13	73¢	$10	0xede20f…
08-12 15:11:15	another critical cloudflare incident by september 30 2026 2	Yes	SELL	7	50¢	$4	0xe6af57…
08-12 15:07:18	will spcx reach 142 50 by august 10 2026	No	BUY	2	35¢	$1	0xb22176…
08-12 15:04:52	another critical cloudflare incident by september 30 2026 2	Yes	SELL	7	50¢	$4	0x4e213d…
08-09 23:06:48	will pltr dip to 165 by august 10 2026	No	BUY	1	4¢	$0	0x205d69…
08-09 23:06:16	will pltr dip to 165 by august 10 2026	No	BUY	1	4¢	$0	0x1b7d1b…
08-04 16:27:14	will spcx dip to 85 in august 2026	Yes	BUY	22	10¢	$2	0x718dbe…
07-30 19:59:47	will ewy reach 169 by july 27 2026	No	BUY	52	84¢	$44	0x25c9b4…
07-30 19:57:21	will ewy reach 167 by july 27 2026	Yes	BUY	53	11¢	$6	0xd08cf0…
07-30 19:57:20	will ewy reach 168 by july 27 2026	No	BUY	53	82¢	$43	0xeea569…
07-30 13:57:20	amzn close above 235 on july 30 2026	No	BUY	31	30¢	$9	0xc768c3…
07-30 13:57:17	amzn close above 225 on july 30 2026	Yes	BUY	31	59¢	$18	0x0afb88…
07-30 13:29:00	will msft reach 435 in july 2026	No	BUY	70	52¢	$36	0x5aecb4…
07-30 13:28:59	will msft reach 420 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	70	19¢	$13	0xfc8011…
07-29 13:34:06	will mu dip to 780 by july 27 2026	Yes	BUY	54	61¢	$33	0xf14caa…
07-29 13:34:05	will mu dip to 720 by july 27 2026	No	BUY	54	31¢	$17	0x1870f2…
07-29 08:24:39	Will Google (GOOGL) close above $315 on July 29?	Yes	BUY	44	94¢	$41	0x582840…
07-29 08:24:38	Will Google (GOOGL) close above $320 on July 29?	No	BUY	44	3¢	$1	0xd37928…
07-29 08:00:15	Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $134 Week of July 27 2026?	Yes	BUY	53	13¢	$7	0x746993…
07-29 08:00:14	Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $132 Week of July 27 2026?	No	BUY	53	80¢	$42	0x752276…
07-28 18:05:07	another critical cloudflare incident by september 30 2026 2	Yes	BUY	51	95¢	$48	0x1b49c5…
07-28 18:05:04	another critical cloudflare incident by august 31 2026 12	No	BUY	51	2¢	$1	0x920d36…
07-28 16:59:50	will aapl dip to 324 by july 27 2026	No	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0xbf87e6…
07-28 16:59:50	will aapl dip to 328 by july 27 2026	Yes	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0x22070a…
07-28 12:14:22	will meta meta q2 capital expenditures including principal payments on finance leases be above 35b 20260717034403941	Yes	BUY	0	3¢	$0	0xe7da0f…
07-24 18:54:25	open above 1pt5 on july 24 2026	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x609c4f…
07-23 23:29:13	will us crude oil reserves fall to 300m by may 1 20260714141931931	No	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0xd2d8e2…
07-23 23:29:13	will us crude oil reserves fall to 325m by may 1 20260714141931930	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x418f11…
07-23 18:59:57	will open reach 6 00 in july 2026	No	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0x59c41d…
07-23 18:59:57	will open reach 6 00 in july 2026	No	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0x2f4e02…
07-23 18:59:55	will open reach 5 50 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	20	2¢	$0	0x5b16c7…
07-23 18:59:55	will open reach 5 50 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	20	2¢	$0	0x14c6b8…
07-23 18:54:43	will coin dip to 147 50 by july 20 2026	No	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0x9587a1…
07-23 08:16:03	will tsla dip to 360 by july 20 2026	Yes	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x15e77b…
07-21 00:02:40	will ewy dip to 158 by july 20 2026	No	BUY	9	23¢	$2	0xf64528…
07-20 19:19:07	will newmont nem q2 total attributable gold production be above 1400 koz 20260703220112343	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xb34be8…
07-20 19:19:07	will newmont nem q2 total attributable gold production be above 1350 koz 20260703220112342	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x2919ca…
07-20 17:44:15	will apple aapl q3 iphone revenue be above 55b 20260717035215861	Yes	BUY	23	31¢	$7	0xb4eead…
07-20 17:44:13	will apple aapl q3 iphone revenue be above 56pt5b 20260717035215862	No	BUY	23	66¢	$15	0x867d7e…
07-20 13:54:04	will ewy dip to 157 by july 20 2026	No	BUY	11	38¢	$4	0xf931fb…
07-20 13:54:04	will ewy dip to 158 by july 20 2026	Yes	BUY	11	56¢	$6	0xb2caec…
07-20 09:22:58	will microsoft msft q4 cloud revenue be above 58b 20260717035853876	Yes	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x33660a…
07-20 09:09:06	will abnb reach 148 by july 20 2026	Yes	BUY	19	72¢	$14	0x195aa5…
07-18 11:42:42	will the highest recorded wind on mtpt washington in july be at least 105 mph 20260626193609217	Yes	BUY	51	44¢	$22	0x823efd…
07-18 09:28:42	untitled market 1 20260629172240684	Yes	BUY	57	3¢	$2	0x5b4919…
07-18 09:28:42	will databricks valuation hit high 180 by july 31 20260629184745124	No	BUY	57	84¢	$48	0x02d209…
07-18 02:29:43	will the highest recorded wind on mtpt washington in july be at least 110 mph 20260626193609218	No	BUY	50	46¢	$23	0xdbf39a…
07-18 02:29:43	will the highest recorded wind on mtpt washington in july be at least 105 mph 20260626193609217	Yes	BUY	50	43¢	$22	0x90b26e…
07-18 02:12:01	Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	40	89¢	$36	0x754ca7…
07-18 02:12:00	Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	7¢	$3	0x7903e2…
07-17 20:50:22	will ewy reach 214 in july 2026	No	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0x45fb92…
07-17 18:07:01	will att t q2 total revenue be above 31pt8b 20260703212929588	No	BUY	0	22¢	$0	0x1683f1…
07-17 13:50:34	will coin dip to 147 50 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	51	5¢	$3	0x541958…
07-17 06:09:55	untitled market 1 20260629172240684	Yes	BUY	81	1¢	$1	0xc2f185…
07-17 06:09:54	will databricks valuation hit high 180 by july 31 20260629184745124	No	BUY	81	60¢	$49	0x9ace05…
07-17 00:38:59	will gleans valuation hit high 7pt5b by july 31 20260630205002624	No	BUY	8	86¢	$7	0x6ef6e7…
07-17 00:38:58	will gleans valuation hit high 7pt25b by july 31 20260630205002625	Yes	BUY	8	11¢	$1	0x404b4b…
07-16 23:35:56	will nvda reach 220 by july 13 2026	No	BUY	28	95¢	$27	0x22e17c…
07-16 23:35:53	will nvda reach 216 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	51	3¢	$2	0xa20e2e…
07-16 18:55:20	will the highest recorded wind on mtpt washington in july be at least 100 mph 20260626193609216	No	BUY	26	14¢	$4	0x8a648c…
07-16 14:37:50	will google googl q2 cloud revenue be above 23b 20260703214914068	No	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0x6518a5…
07-15 08:39:53	bitcoin above 56k on july 20 2026	No	BUY	50	1¢	$1	0x118a9e…
07-15 08:39:32	bitcoin above 56k on july 20 2026	No	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0x8e0527…
07-15 08:39:29	will bitcoin reach 70k july 13 19 2026	Yes	BUY	52	17¢	$9	0x005842…
07-15 03:26:02	will ewy reach 188 by july 13 2026	No	BUY	36	58¢	$21	0xff7b26…
07-15 03:26:02	will ewy reach 186 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	36	30¢	$11	0xfc9bb4…
07-14 17:52:05	pltr above 132 on july 17 2026	No	BUY	63	34¢	$21	0x6620eb…
07-13 17:38:04	will tsla reach 465 in july 2026	No	BUY	16	89¢	$14	0x3e31c6…
07-13 17:38:02	will tsla reach 450 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	16	9¢	$1	0x5f1fe9…
07-13 17:03:16	will prologis pld q2 core ffo per diluted share be above 1pt60 20260618172009451	Yes	BUY	1	7¢	$0	0x61b32f…
07-13 17:00:22	will morgan stanley ms q2 investment banking revenue be above 2pt35b	No	BUY	13	25¢	$3	0x79dd06…
07-13 17:00:20	will morgan stanley ms q2 investment banking revenue be above 2pt125b	Yes	BUY	13	71¢	$10	0xd1d61d…
07-13 11:59:58	will mu dip to 870 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	20	32¢	$6	0x14a5a2…
07-13 09:47:07	will lockheed martin lmt q2 total backlog be above 230b 20260707030224310	No	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x7c09ab…
07-13 09:47:07	will lockheed martin lmt q2 total backlog be above 230b 20260707030224310	No	BUY	7	58¢	$4	0x1fc3f7…
07-13 09:46:50	will ibm ibm q2 software revenue be above 8pt2b 20260707025814493	No	BUY	1	9¢	$0	0x0dfb52…
07-13 05:20:23	will mu reach 990 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0x736695…
07-13 04:54:26	will mu reach 1170 by july 13 2026	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x3c58c2…
07-13 04:54:25	will mu reach 990 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0xf66d66…
07-13 02:18:32	will johnson johnson jnj q2 innovation medicine revenue be above 16pt35b 20260618022527836	Yes	BUY	7	63¢	$4	0xd4b391…
07-13 02:18:31	will johnson johnson jnj q2 innovation medicine revenue be above 16pt65b 20260618022527838	No	BUY	7	33¢	$2	0x6cbb07…
07-13 01:01:38	will justin biebers monthly listeners figure hit 140m by august 31 20260710220109219	No	BUY	53	20¢	$11	0xabf41a…
07-13 01:01:37	will justin biebers monthly listeners figure hit 130m by august 31 20260710220109218	Yes	BUY	53	74¢	$39	0xf42687…
07-12 18:21:13	will ewy reach 220 in july 2026	No	BUY	50	82¢	$41	0xe87180…
07-12 18:21:11	will ewy reach 218 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	50	14¢	$7	0xe0ede5…
07-12 01:53:56	will krakens valuation hit high 13 by july 31 20260629184742672	Yes	BUY	50	4¢	$2	0xde5636…
07-12 01:34:32	will wells fargo wfc q2 provision for credit losses be above 1pt275b 20260618001830830	Yes	BUY	16	28¢	$4	0xab6b12…
07-12 01:34:28	will wells fargo wfc q2 provision for credit losses be above 1pt275b 20260618001830830	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x5ba387…
07-11 22:56:17	will google googl q2 search other revenue be above 65b 20260703213321811	Yes	BUY	20	12¢	$2	0xef7b33…