Optimistic-Tinderbox — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$13

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

96.1%

Resolved

1,069

Trades

1,282

lifetime

Volume

$19.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$15

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-11

last 08-17 08:31

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 89 days

Categories

Other

86% 93% +$21

Crypto

14% 97% -$8

Politics

0% — —

Tech

0% 0% —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

13 active days in 12wk • peak 8 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on August 6?	1	$105	106	+106	No	+$1	08-06 04:28
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 84-85°F on July 17?	1	$99	100	+100	No	+$1	07-17 20:53
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on July 9?	5	$99	100	+100	No	+$1	07-09 22:54
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on July 9?	1	$98	99	+99	No	+$1	07-09 20:52
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on July 7?	1	$98	99	+99	No	+$1	07-07 20:54
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on July 15?	1	$97	98	+98	No	+$1	07-15 19:52
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on July 9?	1	$95	99	+99	No	+$4	07-09 20:53
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 26?	2	$91	92	+92	No	+$1	07-26 16:53
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on July 30?	1	$91	92	+92	No	+$1	07-30 22:52
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 21?	1	$90	91	+91	No	+$1	07-21 17:51
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 87°F or below on July 16?	1	$90	90	+90	No	+$0	07-16 19:53
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on July 5?	1	$90	90	+90	No	+$0	07-05 19:21
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on July 16?	2	$85	86	+86	No	+$1	07-16 04:54
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 8?	1	$76	80	+80	No	+$4	07-07 16:04
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on August 5?	1	$68	69	+69	No	+$1	08-05 04:54
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on July 8?	1	$67	70	+70	No	+$3	07-08 09:36
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 93°F or below on July 15?	1	$66	67	+67	No	+$1	07-15 15:53
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on August 2?	1	$64	65	+65	No	+$1	08-02 04:54
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on August 13?	1	$63	64	+64	No	+$1	08-13 04:54
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 10?	1	$50	50	+50	No	+$0	08-09 16:05
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C or below on August 9?	1	$50	50	+50	No	+$0	08-09 07:19
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on August 17?	1	$50	50	+50	No	+$0	08-16 15:05
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 12?	1	$50	50	+50	No	+$0	07-12 06:36
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C or below on July 10?	1	$50	50	+50	No	+$0	07-10 10:32
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on July 12?	1	$50	50	+50	No	+$0	07-11 16:00
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on August 10?	1	$50	50	+50	No	+$0	08-09 22:02
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on July 19?	1	$50	50	+50	No	+$0	07-18 22:02
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on July 13?	1	$50	50	+50	No	+$0	07-13 13:02
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on August 12?	1	$50	50	+50	No	+$0	08-11 16:05
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on July 10?	1	$50	50	+50	No	+$0	07-10 08:21

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-17 08:31:39	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C or below on August 17?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x20f08f…
08-17 03:54:25	Will the lowest temperature in London be 21°C on August 17?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x1663ed…
08-16 19:56:58	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 65°F or below on August 16?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xea28d3…
08-16 18:34:34	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 27°C on August 17?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x755a31…
08-16 18:24:28	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on August 16?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x0de87d…
08-16 16:24:37	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 17?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xa24b9d…
08-16 16:10:19	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 17?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x55ac6f…
08-16 16:06:42	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 17?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xe5888c…
08-16 16:05:30	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 17?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x1cc166…
08-16 15:05:52	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on August 17?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x4e30bf…
08-15 23:24:18	Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on August 16?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0xb6eb10…
08-15 19:20:42	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on August 15?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xbfbee8…
08-15 16:05:33	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 16?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x728712…
08-15 16:01:55	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 27°C on August 16?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x391d2d…
08-15 12:04:28	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on August 16?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x6b2670…
08-15 00:02:18	Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 26°C on August 15?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0xddfea6…
08-14 17:45:43	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on August 14?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x10126e…
08-14 13:05:10	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 14?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x41f04f…
08-14 13:04:19	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 14?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x5d0f9b…
08-14 10:29:43	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on August 14?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x862167…
08-14 04:55:13	Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on August 14?	No	BUY	19	99¢	$19	0xe3ab3a…
08-14 02:06:33	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on August 14?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xc426fa…
08-13 19:03:19	Will the highest temperature in Denver be 75°F or below on August 13?	No	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0xc7df48…
08-13 18:32:24	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 29°C on August 14?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x4c26d8…
08-13 16:05:19	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on August 14?	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x58e35a…
08-13 04:54:06	Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on August 13?	No	BUY	64	99¢	$63	0x23fe36…
08-12 22:02:25	Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 26°C on August 13?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x7b246a…
08-12 20:33:51	Will the highest temperature in Denver be 87°F or below on August 12?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x955311…
08-12 16:07:01	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on August 13?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x312db5…
08-12 16:05:22	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 13?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x617064…
08-12 15:05:43	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on August 13?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x562877…
08-11 16:05:45	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on August 12?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x2f5b72…
08-11 15:05:57	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on August 12?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x1cfd6e…
08-11 05:38:12	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on August 11?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0xb15c98…
08-11 01:06:28	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on August 11?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0xbf42b9…
08-10 23:24:13	Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on August 11?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x6825db…
08-10 17:59:22	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on August 10?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x0a203c…
08-10 12:04:28	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 11?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x7c42b8…
08-10 11:23:27	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on August 10?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0xa51e8c…
08-09 22:27:18	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on August 10?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x7400c6…
08-09 22:02:27	Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on August 10?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0xf8f09b…
08-09 16:05:22	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 10?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x0e6a58…
08-09 07:19:54	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C or below on August 9?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x2b9f20…
08-09 05:01:25	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 30°C on August 9?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0xe5ee60…
08-08 16:05:21	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 9?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xde284e…
08-08 16:05:21	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 9?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0xdde987…
08-08 15:06:21	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on August 9?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x9819c7…
08-08 12:53:52	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on August 8?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x664333…
08-08 01:37:18	Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C on August 8?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0xe44ac0…
08-07 17:03:13	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on August 7?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x1cb366…
08-07 15:55:58	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on August 7?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x49e35b…
08-07 15:05:42	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on August 8?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x1eab23…
08-07 09:02:21	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C or below on August 7?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x433211…
08-07 09:01:21	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C or below on August 7?	No	BUY	0	100¢	$0	0xd07d5e…
08-07 09:01:18	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C or below on August 7?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0xa65943…
08-07 09:01:10	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C or below on August 7?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x404873…
08-06 22:37:15	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on August 7?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xb3bf1f…
08-06 19:05:26	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 7?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x420414…
08-06 19:01:39	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 28°C or below on August 7?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x7d1c29…
08-06 04:28:26	Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on August 6?	No	BUY	106	99¢	$105	0xa9f008…
08-05 21:03:23	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on August 5?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x127be2…
08-05 16:06:32	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 6?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0xa11016…
08-05 15:05:53	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on August 6?	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0xb753a2…
08-05 15:04:12	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on August 5?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0xc56188…
08-05 04:54:14	Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on August 5?	No	BUY	69	99¢	$68	0xfbbc67…
08-04 23:19:36	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on August 5?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x0546d9…
08-04 16:06:48	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 5?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x58f270…
08-04 15:10:15	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on August 4?	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x07a5af…
08-04 15:05:44	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on August 5?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xe0f364…
08-04 13:34:38	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 7°C on August 5?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x83fb91…
08-04 12:14:29	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C or below on August 4?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xf661eb…
08-04 04:01:24	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 30°C on August 4?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x586cfc…
08-04 03:04:09	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C or below on August 4?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x85a15a…
08-03 18:53:47	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 3?	No	BUY	93	31¢	$29	0xedfcc2…
08-03 18:32:47	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 28°C on August 4?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x955572…
08-03 12:04:17	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on August 4?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x000b3c…
08-03 12:02:27	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on August 3?	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x16b576…
08-03 10:59:36	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on August 3?	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0xb7e73c…
08-03 03:09:24	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on August 3?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xeeb9fb…
08-03 00:54:18	Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on August 3?	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x93630a…
08-02 22:02:38	Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 26°C on August 3?	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x4720b3…
08-02 06:03:45	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on August 2?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xaecf05…
08-02 04:54:20	Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on August 2?	No	BUY	65	99¢	$64	0x3c53df…
08-02 04:07:29	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on August 2?	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x82ffff…
08-02 01:36:24	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on August 2?	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x4e93be…
08-02 01:01:03	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on August 2?	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0xed7668…
08-01 23:32:27	Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 20°C on August 2?	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x48efdc…
08-01 19:01:39	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 28°C on August 2?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x1573db…
08-01 16:06:29	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on August 2?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xacf33b…
08-01 11:02:27	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or below on August 1?	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0xc9c619…
08-01 03:04:21	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on August 1?	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0xe8d5f1…
08-01 02:54:21	Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on August 1?	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0xf605c6…
07-31 23:02:24	Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 21°C on August 1?	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x276d5d…
07-31 18:09:18	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on July 31?	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0xac7aa9…
07-31 13:02:14	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C or below on July 31?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xb9f280…
07-31 12:24:20	Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on July 31?	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x806979…
07-31 12:04:24	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on August 1?	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x9570f2…
07-31 09:01:38	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on July 31?	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x05c655…
07-31 01:03:12	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C or below on July 31?	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0xb66144…
07-30 23:02:15	Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 22°C on July 31?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x579eb8…