Luminous-Tract — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$259

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

2.3%

Resolved (90d)

Trades (90d)

1,442 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$91

$13.2K lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-05

last 09-21 22:55

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 107 days

Categories

Other

93% 89% -$74

Tech

7% 70% -$108

Sports

0% 100% +$1

Crypto

0% 0% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

6 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
lowest temperature in nyc on april 15 2026 68 69f	4	$291	149	149	+0	Yes	+$6	04-16 05:18
highest temperature in moscow on april 16 2026 11c	2	$265	135	135	+0	Yes	+$5	04-16 23:51
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	4	$262	345	320	+25	Yes	-$154	07-31 00:51
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 7, 2026?	2	$240	257	0	+257	No	+$17	07-07 13:29
highest temperature in san francisco on april 14 2026 64forhigher	3	$211	109	109	+0	No	+$6	04-15 01:37
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 29	1	$200	220	0	+220	No	+$20	06-27 23:00
will moonshot ais kimi k3 model be released by july 31 2026	1	$200	204	0	+204	Yes	+$4	07-15 15:34
highest temperature in seoul on april 14 2026 23c	4	$169	90	90	+0	Yes	+$4	04-14 15:11
highest temperature in dallas on april 12 2026 72 73f	5	$153	82	82	+0	Yes	+$5	04-13 04:56
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	2	$125	118	118	+0	No	-$75	07-31 00:48
highest temperature in paris on april 18 2026 20c	3	$118	61	61	+0	No	+$3	04-18 13:16
highest temperature in denver on april 16 2026 74 75f	1	$110	113	0	+113	Yes	+$3	04-16 23:53
fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 team to advance	3	$102	106	3	+103	England	+$2	07-18 22:52
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 30	1	$100	116	0	+116	No	+$16	06-30 23:29
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	1	$100	147	0	+147	Yes	+$47	06-21 03:40
highest temperature in chengdu on april 8 2026 21c	10	$82	41	41	+0	No	+$1	04-08 06:59
highest temperature in paris on april 18 2026 22c	3	$63	68	3	+64	Yes	+$2	04-18 13:18
highest temperature in los angeles on april 24 2026 74forhigher	3	$59	31	31	+0	No	+$3	04-25 04:09
highest temperature in ankara on april 22 2026 17c	2	$53	27	27	+0	Yes	+$1	04-22 15:32
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	1	$50	56	0	+56	Yes	+$6	06-21 03:41
will the next claude opus debut at a score of at least 1470 by december 31 2026 20260715004553748	1	$50	59	0	+59	Yes	+$9	07-15 15:23
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on May 11?	2	$41	22	22	+0	Yes	+$1	05-11 13:39
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or higher on May 11?	2	$41	21	21	+0	No	+$1	05-11 13:39
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on May 10?	2	$41	21	21	+0	No	+$1	05-10 10:01
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 6?	2	$40	20	20	+0	No	+$0	05-06 12:38
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on May 4?	2	$40	20	20	+0	No	+$0	05-05 05:24
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	2	$40	49	0	+49	No	+$9	06-25 00:04
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on June 5?	2	$40	41	0	+41	No	+$1	06-05 03:30
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 100-101°F on June 17?	2	$40	42	0	+42	No	+$2	06-17 08:30
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 2?	2	$38	21	21	+0	No	-$2	05-02 03:42

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-21 22:55:12	Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 21, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	0¢	$0	0xa2aac5…
09-21 15:38:43	Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	82¢	$2	0xbed53e…
09-18 12:17:57	Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 18, 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	14¢	$2	0x808c68…
09-17 08:25:19	Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	84¢	$12	0x52cc85…
09-11 22:23:30	Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 14, 2026?	No	BUY	12	86¢	$10	0x67d4da…
09-02 13:21:46	will openais astra model be released by september 3 2026	Yes	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0x0a4979…
09-01 14:30:07	Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 1, 2026?	No	BUY	15	69¢	$10	0x3c2bb1…
07-31 00:51:15	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	25	81¢	$20	0xbb679f…
07-31 00:48:39	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	SELL	118	21¢	$25	0x9ff7c6…
07-29 13:58:32	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	118	85¢	$100	0x1f1a49…
07-29 13:56:14	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	SELL	320	13¢	$42	0x626cf9…
07-23 23:51:10	Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	35	1¢	$0	0xa1c4b5…
07-23 04:57:55	Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	35	86¢	$30	0x39136a…
07-21 01:13:15	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	145	69¢	$100	0x16e219…
07-18 22:52:15	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 team to advance	France	SELL	3	4¢	$0	0xf086c9…
07-18 22:52:06	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 team to advance	England	BUY	103	97¢	$100	0xdc7110…
07-18 02:17:58	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	176	57¢	$100	0xaae3cf…
07-17 04:44:37	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	Spain	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0xe21d8c…
07-17 04:44:21	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 team to advance	France	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0x27da3e…
07-15 15:34:10	will moonshot ais kimi k3 model be released by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	204	98¢	$200	0xef4bf9…
07-15 15:23:49	will the next claude opus debut at a score of at least 1470 by december 31 2026 20260715004553748	Yes	BUY	59	85¢	$50	0xfd145f…
07-14 04:50:29	Will France win on 2026-07-14?	Yes	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x8a1965…
07-14 04:50:28	Will England win on 2026-07-15?	Yes	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xc6fb28…
07-11 23:58:25	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?	Yes	BUY	3	57¢	$2	0x4b7d8a…
07-11 12:27:49	Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x779a9c…
07-10 14:23:08	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0x26ac9a…
07-08 10:14:20	Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?	Yes	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x1e6c96…
07-08 10:14:10	Will France win on 2026-07-09?	Yes	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x05fbe7…
07-07 13:37:14	Will Switzerland vs. Colombia end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x97dbdd…
07-07 13:29:28	Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 7, 2026?	No	BUY	44	90¢	$40	0xcecbbc…
07-07 05:07:13	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?	Yes	BUY	3	73¢	$2	0xc3c7d8…
07-07 05:06:17	Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 7, 2026?	No	BUY	213	94¢	$200	0x4e6fc6…
07-05 13:11:50	Will England win on 2026-07-05?	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x4f5b5d…
07-04 10:34:05	lol blg t1 2026 07 04	T1	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x82cce4…
07-04 08:55:13	lol blg t1 2026 07 04	T1	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xa42863…
07-04 04:25:08	Will Spain win on 2026-07-06?	Yes	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0xeee98b…
07-04 04:24:44	Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?	Yes	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0x481452…
07-04 04:23:52	Will France win on 2026-07-04?	Yes	BUY	24	83¢	$20	0x1bddcd…
07-02 04:56:55	Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02?	Yes	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x914842…
06-30 23:29:41	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 30	No	BUY	116	86¢	$100	0xacb4f2…
06-30 14:19:10	will the next claude sonnet model be released by june 30 2026 20260624195228147 767	Yes	BUY	23	87¢	$20	0x04db60…
06-27 23:00:56	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 29	No	BUY	220	91¢	$200	0x969061…
06-27 23:00:07	Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x5a8ee1…
06-25 06:04:16	Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x0e89fe…
06-25 06:03:44	Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0x54c181…
06-25 06:03:29	Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	BUY	24	84¢	$20	0x4d6308…
06-25 06:03:13	Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	BUY	31	65¢	$20	0xcd0b8f…
06-25 00:04:20	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	No	BUY	27	75¢	$20	0xb302b2…
06-24 01:40:41	Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0x481295…
06-24 01:40:32	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	No	BUY	22	89¢	$20	0x132a40…
06-21 09:51:31	Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0x795b08…
06-21 09:51:20	Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0xb59759…
06-21 09:51:13	Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0x52abec…
06-21 03:41:07	Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	BUY	56	89¢	$50	0x67e259…
06-21 03:40:43	Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	BUY	147	68¢	$100	0xe8357e…
06-20 10:22:55	Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0x4c9a55…
06-19 11:48:19	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	No	BUY	13	76¢	$10	0xee5b89…
06-19 11:47:17	Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0xf22c83…
06-18 22:30:31	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 20?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x5de185…
06-18 22:30:23	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 19?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x0a5856…
06-18 18:30:25	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 20?	No	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0x946893…
06-18 16:30:28	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on June 19?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xa9cd16…
06-18 16:30:26	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 20?	No	BUY	21	94¢	$20	0x1a4c52…
06-18 04:30:26	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 19?	No	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0x74b517…
06-17 16:30:25	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 19?	No	BUY	21	93¢	$20	0xdddff4…
06-17 08:30:25	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 100-101°F on June 17?	No	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0x08072c…
06-17 07:30:23	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 100-101°F on June 17?	No	BUY	21	96¢	$20	0x21ca75…
06-17 03:30:28	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 18?	No	BUY	21	98¢	$20	0x071bec…
06-17 00:30:25	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 17?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x893bae…
06-16 17:30:23	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 17?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xd924bb…
06-16 16:30:28	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 18?	No	BUY	21	96¢	$20	0x297fe1…
06-16 08:30:25	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on June 16?	No	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0x97d6cc…
06-16 03:30:27	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 17?	No	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0x3f0889…
06-15 23:30:27	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on June 16?	No	BUY	22	92¢	$20	0x995760…
06-15 17:30:27	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17?	No	BUY	21	98¢	$20	0x9725ca…
06-15 14:30:25	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 15?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x11f441…
06-15 09:30:22	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on June 15?	No	BUY	21	96¢	$20	0x3a91c1…
06-15 06:30:22	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on June 16?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x316c6e…
06-15 03:30:24	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 16?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xdc0191…
06-14 23:30:22	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 15?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xecbbb6…
06-14 16:30:31	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 16?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x48f55c…
06-14 16:30:22	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xf87abd…
06-13 16:30:31	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14?	No	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0x23b35d…
06-13 16:30:22	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 15?	No	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0x414fbb…
06-13 15:30:22	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 14?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x291083…
06-13 08:30:21	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 14?	No	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0xde4a50…
06-13 05:30:22	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 14?	No	BUY	21	94¢	$20	0xbed69b…
06-13 01:30:22	Will the highest temperature in Austin be 83°F or below on June 14?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x131be3…
06-12 23:30:22	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 13?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x492d33…
06-12 16:30:25	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 14?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xb8de7a…
06-12 16:30:22	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 14?	No	BUY	21	96¢	$20	0xcc0136…
06-12 13:30:21	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 12?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xd5058d…
06-12 07:30:19	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 12?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x810995…
06-12 04:30:21	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 13?	No	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0xc4d26f…
06-12 00:30:21	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 12?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xb6c619…
06-11 21:30:21	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 12?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xdfac94…
06-11 18:30:19	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 13?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x32dbbd…
06-11 16:30:19	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12?	No	BUY	21	96¢	$20	0x6abe2a…
06-10 21:30:45	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 12?	No	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0xe330b5…
06-10 06:30:45	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 11?	No	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0x3fecc0…