Watchful-Question — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$93

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

39.2%

Resolved

146

Trades

271

lifetime

Volume

$476

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-26

last 05-19 18:40

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 45 days

Categories

Other

46% 39% -$65

Crypto

27% 44% -$28

Politics

27% 27% +$1

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-05-19).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	19	$53	205	183	+23	No	-$29	04-17 14:30
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	6	$25	29	29	+0	No	+$1	04-08 06:39
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	8	$24	73	73	+0	No	-$14	05-16 04:37
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	6	$23	74	74	+0	No	+$3	04-06 05:02
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?	3	$22	31	31	+0	No	+$2	04-08 10:23
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	5	$20	550	25	+525	Yes	-$14	02-02 13:25
Iran leadership change by May 31?	2	$13	56	56	+0	No	-$7	05-16 04:14
will the us next strike iran before march 2026 et	2	$12	11	11	+0	Yes	+$8	02-28 07:36
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	2	$9	19	19	+0	No	-$1	04-01 12:37
Iran leadership change by April 30?	2	$8	40	40	+0	No	+$0	04-11 04:17
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	4	$8	13	13	+0	Yes	$0	03-28 09:13
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	2	$8	10	10	+0	Yes	$0	03-29 02:36
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	2	$7	10	10	+0	No	+$1	03-29 07:10
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	4	$7	8	8	+0	Yes	+$1	03-28 03:40
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	2	$7	15	15	+0	Yes	-$1	03-27 16:14
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	4	$7	13	13	+0	No	+$1	03-28 08:38
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	2	$6	23	23	+0	No	-$2	03-04 08:54
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	2	$6	42	40	+1	No	-$4	04-25 14:56
will the us next strike iran on february 28 2026 et	2	$5	26	26	+0	Yes	+$3	02-27 14:23
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	2	$5	7	7	+0	No	+$3	03-18 08:34
will the us next strike iran on february 11 2026 et	2	$5	254	254	+0	No	-$1	02-06 16:20
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	1	$5	23	0	+23	No	-$5	04-08 06:43
Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22?	3	$5	11	0	+11	Yes	+$6	05-16 07:26
will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	2	$5	50	50	+0	No	-$3	03-04 08:59
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?	2	$4	10	10	+0	Yes	$0	04-02 13:53
US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?	2	$4	3	3	+0	Yes	+$2	02-28 07:34
will the kharg island oil terminal be hit by march 31	5	$4	25	25	+0	No	-$2	03-31 07:18
trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	4	$3	4	4	+0	No	-$1	03-27 02:09
will the price of bitcoin be between 74000 76000 on april 21	2	$3	5	0	+5	Yes	+$2	04-21 15:18
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-15 17:00 UTC	2	$3	5	5	+0	Down	-$1	02-15 17:02

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-19 18:40:45	Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May?	Yes	BUY	14	10¢	$1	0xf1a59a…
05-19 16:03:32	Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May?	Yes	BUY	6	10¢	$1	0x50c02b…
05-19 08:26:26	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	No	BUY	8	35¢	$3	0xfbe952…
05-16 07:26:32	Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22?	Yes	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x7f4fed…
05-16 07:18:19	Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22?	Yes	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xddfa14…
05-16 04:37:48	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	SELL	63	4¢	$2	0xa71c99…
05-16 04:33:43	Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22?	Yes	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xb87dcd…
05-16 04:14:18	Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	SELL	56	5¢	$3	0xbe3969…
04-26 05:00:28	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 27?	Yes	BUY	10	14¢	$1	0x69f562…
04-26 02:23:40	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 27?	Yes	BUY	5	14¢	$1	0x0fcf03…
04-25 22:50:52	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 27?	Yes	BUY	5	14¢	$1	0xd28158…
04-25 22:30:40	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 26?	Yes	BUY	38	4¢	$2	0x97c7c9…
04-25 22:30:36	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 26?	Yes	BUY	2	4¢	$0	0x0fe147…
04-25 15:41:48	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?	Yes	SELL	14	3¢	$0	0xea7d04…
04-25 15:21:04	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?	Yes	SELL	5	3¢	$0	0x3a429c…
04-25 15:13:32	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?	Yes	SELL	1	3¢	$0	0x330df1…
04-25 14:56:44	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	Yes	SELL	40	2¢	$1	0x677483…
04-21 15:18:04	will the price of bitcoin be between 74000 76000 on april 21	Yes	BUY	2	69¢	$1	0x198d4c…
04-21 15:15:58	will the price of bitcoin be between 74000 76000 on april 21	Yes	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0x0ad79a…
04-19 12:52:42	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?	Yes	BUY	20	11¢	$2	0x493cee…
04-17 14:30:42	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	Yes	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0x039aaf…
04-17 14:27:22	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	Yes	SELL	50	5¢	$2	0x0b2d26…
04-17 14:21:50	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	Yes	SELL	93	5¢	$5	0x21f9df…
04-14 07:25:29	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	Yes	BUY	43	10¢	$4	0xbc7f9b…
04-14 06:51:57	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	Yes	BUY	4	10¢	$0	0xe3e995…
04-14 06:24:59	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	Yes	BUY	3	10¢	$0	0xa84638…
04-11 04:30:21	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	Yes	BUY	12	16¢	$2	0x172933…
04-11 04:17:29	Iran leadership change by April 30?	Yes	SELL	40	10¢	$4	0xfcbea9…
04-08 10:26:53	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	Yes	BUY	42	12¢	$5	0xf64e21…
04-08 10:25:33	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	Yes	BUY	14	14¢	$2	0xe2879e…
04-08 10:23:11	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?	Yes	SELL	16	39¢	$6	0xc68216…
04-08 06:43:03	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	Yes	BUY	23	22¢	$5	0x6abda6…
04-08 06:41:57	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	BUY	15	13¢	$2	0x96a03b…
04-08 06:40:23	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	Yes	BUY	35	17¢	$6	0x6e23d5…
04-08 06:39:53	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	Yes	SELL	12	59¢	$7	0x921679…
04-08 06:34:47	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?	Yes	SELL	16	39¢	$6	0x6c91f3…
04-08 04:10:37	Iran leadership change by April 30?	Yes	BUY	40	10¢	$4	0xc66857…
04-08 04:10:11	Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	BUY	56	18¢	$10	0x53529b…
04-07 02:12:03	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	Yes	SELL	12	32¢	$4	0xcfa9e5…
04-06 09:50:47	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?	Yes	BUY	31	32¢	$10	0x78255b…
04-06 09:22:15	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	Yes	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x9945b8…
04-06 05:02:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	SELL	33	15¢	$5	0x2a69f6…
04-06 04:59:03	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	SELL	33	15¢	$5	0xc2c6fc…
04-03 16:51:15	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	BUY	11	27¢	$3	0xe45d7d…
04-03 16:46:17	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	Yes	BUY	12	33¢	$4	0x5705f6…
04-03 16:42:33	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	Yes	BUY	10	39¢	$4	0x053cc2…
04-03 07:15:21	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	BUY	17	12¢	$2	0xed01e8…
04-03 07:12:29	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	Yes	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0x728f96…
04-03 02:15:37	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x1e4fc9…
04-02 18:29:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	BUY	50	12¢	$6	0x25ffd9…
04-02 14:00:37	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x9a136a…
04-02 14:00:19	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	Yes	SELL	4	40¢	$2	0x056323…
04-02 13:54:41	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	Yes	BUY	30	25¢	$8	0x8892e8…
04-02 13:53:29	US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	20¢	$2	0x24b489…
04-02 01:24:21	US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	25¢	$2	0x89c933…
04-01 15:21:03	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xf29d02…
04-01 14:27:35	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	SELL	10	26¢	$3	0xe24c3b…
04-01 14:26:03	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	Yes	SELL	20	20¢	$4	0x168972…
04-01 12:37:41	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	Yes	SELL	19	20¢	$4	0x969237…
03-31 17:43:57	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	BUY	10	28¢	$3	0x3572ed…
03-31 16:54:53	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	Yes	BUY	2	23¢	$1	0x075ea3…
03-31 16:50:49	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	Yes	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0xfed78d…
03-31 16:46:35	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	Yes	BUY	13	23¢	$3	0x2c5017…
03-31 15:37:55	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	Yes	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0x6553c2…
03-31 07:18:21	will the kharg island oil terminal be hit by march 31	Yes	SELL	17	1¢	$0	0x241130…
03-30 15:05:13	will another country strike iran by march 31 833	Yes	SELL	1	2¢	$0	0xf425ca…
03-29 08:49:04	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	Yes	BUY	8	48¢	$4	0xbdff1d…
03-29 08:46:48	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0xee3d06…
03-29 07:10:38	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	Yes	SELL	10	43¢	$4	0xb7aa28…
03-29 07:08:36	will the kharg island oil terminal be hit by march 31	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x8d8ba1…
03-29 07:08:20	will the kharg island oil terminal be hit by march 31	Yes	SELL	8	5¢	$0	0xaecb95…
03-29 03:11:36	trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	Yes	SELL	4	28¢	$1	0x005097…
03-29 02:36:40	us x iran ceasefire by april 30	Yes	SELL	10	37¢	$4	0x869e42…
03-28 16:32:03	us x iran ceasefire by april 30	Yes	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0x35c62a…
03-28 16:30:35	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	Yes	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0xd9c7d6…
03-28 09:15:35	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	Yes	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0x5fc8eb…
03-28 09:13:01	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	Yes	SELL	5	20¢	$1	0x6b6849…
03-28 08:38:33	will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	Yes	SELL	9	23¢	$2	0x71d108…
03-28 04:23:03	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	Yes	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0x6a3af0…
03-28 03:40:23	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	SELL	2	69¢	$1	0x3cc8a2…
03-27 16:14:41	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	No	SELL	15	18¢	$3	0x64dfee…
03-27 02:09:29	trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	Yes	SELL	3	5¢	$0	0xed51e4…
03-27 02:06:01	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day in march	Yes	SELL	17	7¢	$1	0xe522a2…
03-27 01:56:31	kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	Yes	SELL	8	5¢	$0	0xe4887a…
03-27 01:33:55	will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	Yes	SELL	16	4¢	$1	0xa0f404…
03-25 02:33:53	trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	Yes	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0xdcdec6…
03-25 02:32:09	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	Yes	SELL	5	18¢	$1	0x3ac5f3…
03-25 02:30:27	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	Yes	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0xc8239f…
03-25 02:30:27	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x4a3dd0…
03-24 02:54:25	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day in march	Yes	BUY	17	12¢	$2	0x903ebe…
03-24 02:45:27	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	No	BUY	15	26¢	$4	0x3e1870…
03-24 02:42:49	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xa51e17…
03-24 02:33:05	will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	Yes	BUY	9	21¢	$2	0x0e7a17…
03-24 02:21:07	will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x925b42…
03-23 12:34:39	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	Yes	SELL	8	37¢	$3	0x8c1604…
03-23 12:33:47	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	No	SELL	6	47¢	$3	0xf1f769…
03-23 12:26:19	will crude oil cl hit low 90 by end of march 217 921	Yes	SELL	4	43¢	$1	0xc5af8e…
03-23 10:21:09	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	Yes	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0x7bc85b…
03-23 03:19:23	will the kharg island oil terminal be hit by march 31	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xe5325b…
03-23 03:11:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	SELL	7	41¢	$3	0x2ea091…