Polite-Leveret — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$4.09K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

34.9%

Resolved

263

Trades

978

lifetime

Volume

$55.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$57

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-13

last 05-15 17:39

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 95 days

Categories

Politics

78% 23% -$2,552

Other

21% 22% -$1,557

Crypto

1% 38% +$38

Sports

0% 0% -$15

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-05-15).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	25	$5.7K	12,662	4,102	+8,560	Yes	-$312	03-25 21:02
israel strike on yemen by march 31 2026	17	$3.8K	4,329	4,329	+0	No	-$2,561	03-31 03:31
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	8	$3.5K	2,422	2,422	+0	Yes	+$885	03-01 21:23
us strikes yemen by march 31 2026	21	$2.4K	3,983	3,983	+0	No	-$746	03-31 11:42
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	18	$2.4K	4,961	4,961	+0	Yes	+$1,745	03-11 13:37
houthi strike on israel by march 15 2026	26	$2.0K	7,360	7,360	+0	No	-$616	03-16 05:25
will us or israel strike iran on march 2 2026	2	$1.5K	749	749	+0	Yes	-$2	03-01 22:52
hezbollah strike on israel by march 7	6	$1.2K	757	757	+0	Yes	+$137	03-01 23:20
usisrael strike on fordow nuclear facility by march 15	11	$1.1K	2,637	2,637	+0	No	-$374	03-12 13:50
hezbollah strike on israel by march 31 737 523	2	$997	516	516	+0	Yes	+$28	03-02 01:11
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	5	$931	714	714	+0	No	-$58	04-19 11:46
houthi strike on israel by april 15 2026	4	$924	807	466	+341	Yes	-$7	04-04 19:15
Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026?	16	$903	774	774	+0	Yes	+$213	04-14 23:31
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 9, 2026?	7	$730	641	641	+0	Yes	+$25	04-09 11:03
will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	9	$704	1,552	1,552	+0	No	+$15	03-08 18:03
nothing ever happens khamenei	3	$647	624	624	+0	No	+$435	02-28 22:00
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 9 795	2	$631	431	431	+0	Yes	+$230	03-08 22:17
will israel strike 4 countries in march 2026	10	$570	904	904	+0	No	-$173	03-11 16:03
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 30, 2026?	4	$566	340	340	+0	Yes	+$63	04-16 18:02
will israel strike greater beirut by march 31	4	$538	874	0	+874	Yes	+$336	03-01 23:03
houthi strike on israel by march 6 2026	18	$511	5,630	5,630	+0	No	-$138	03-07 03:44
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	2	$499	453	453	+0	No	+$299	04-12 07:47
usisrael strike yemen by march 31	4	$491	392	392	+0	No	-$22	03-31 11:38
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	7	$489	865	865	+0	No	+$22	03-11 14:10
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	9	$486	657	657	+0	Yes	-$5	05-07 09:38
iran leadership change by march 31	4	$461	941	941	+0	No	-$27	03-11 14:13
usisrael strike on fordow nuclear facility by march 31 388	8	$459	595	595	+0	No	-$25	03-13 22:37
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	7	$430	2,006	1,934	+72	No	+$22	04-21 13:33
Israel strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026?	14	$429	2,648	2,648	+0	No	-$341	04-27 18:22
Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026?	6	$415	1,073	1,073	+0	No	-$54	05-12 11:20

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-15 17:39:50	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	78	0¢	$0	0x4068c9…
05-15 14:23:08	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	78	78¢	$61	0xbddd00…
05-15 14:22:03	Israeli parliament dissolved by May 31?	Yes	SELL	517	12¢	$62	0xd77051…
05-15 09:00:19	Israeli parliament dissolved by May 31?	Yes	BUY	64	14¢	$9	0x2cae8f…
05-15 08:56:37	Israeli parliament dissolved by May 31?	Yes	BUY	453	13¢	$60	0x05735b…
05-14 12:39:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Up	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x0d268c…
05-14 12:39:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Up	BUY	65	46¢	$30	0x29b9f3…
05-14 12:38:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Up	SELL	42	62¢	$26	0x704c46…
05-14 12:38:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Up	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x4cf914…
05-14 12:38:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Up	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0xb020b7…
05-14 12:38:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Up	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0x1e0bec…
05-14 12:38:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Up	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0xb8f738…
05-14 12:37:44	Netanyahu out by May 31?	Yes	SELL	608	1¢	$5	0xf523a1…
05-14 12:37:41	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1,415	1¢	$11	0x97cff4…
05-14 12:37:41	Netanyahu out by June 30?	Yes	SELL	200	4¢	$8	0x3510c6…
05-13 07:36:40	Netanyahu out by June 30?	Yes	BUY	200	5¢	$10	0x8c518b…
05-13 07:36:36	Netanyahu out by May 31?	Yes	BUY	608	2¢	$10	0x63dee5…
05-13 07:35:16	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,415	1¢	$10	0x61aa68…
05-13 07:34:57	Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?	Yes	SELL	69	44¢	$31	0xe26b0d…
05-12 19:28:38	Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x1e0976…
05-12 19:28:29	Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	13	47¢	$6	0x5ab5a1…
05-12 19:28:07	Will GTA 6 cost $100+?	Yes	SELL	65	12¢	$8	0x61bfee…
05-12 13:49:59	Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	3	77¢	$2	0x076ccc…
05-12 13:49:34	Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	52	77¢	$40	0x39199d…
05-12 13:49:12	Will GTA 6 cost $100+?	Yes	BUY	65	15¢	$10	0xb98ec0…
05-12 11:20:23	Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	252	21¢	$52	0xb48d64…
05-07 21:23:25	Iran closes its airspace by May 7?	Yes	BUY	30	7¢	$2	0x2a413c…
05-07 21:22:59	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	Yes	SELL	2	89¢	$2	0x443e94…
05-07 20:57:45	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	Yes	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0xd0ef78…
05-07 20:57:24	Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	252	18¢	$45	0x981010…
05-07 09:40:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	SELL	61	67¢	$41	0x98bb97…
05-07 09:40:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	61	49¢	$30	0xdaa147…
05-07 09:38:21	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	Yes	SELL	98	37¢	$37	0x9031a3…
05-07 09:25:33	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	Yes	BUY	98	41¢	$40	0xf669ca…
05-07 09:25:15	Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	522	8¢	$41	0x114635…
05-04 16:12:52	Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	522	19¢	$100	0xa7d15c…
04-28 20:46:14	Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xbc50b6…
04-28 20:46:10	Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28?	Yes	BUY	61	5¢	$3	0xcefa01…
04-28 20:10:26	Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	100	51¢	$51	0x67cdf3…
04-28 13:46:32	Houthis successfully target shipping by April 30?	Yes	SELL	1,538	0¢	$5	0xfebad3…
04-28 13:46:28	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	316	10¢	$32	0x0bca24…
04-28 13:46:22	Will Israel strike 2 countries in April 2026?	No	SELL	407	5¢	$20	0x11f168…
04-27 18:23:08	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	316	14¢	$44	0xb6a0e7…
04-27 18:22:54	Israel strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2,648	2¢	$44	0x80e849…
04-23 07:01:00	Houthis successfully target shipping by April 30?	Yes	BUY	79	12¢	$9	0xb27f9b…
04-21 20:13:40	will israel conduct military action against iran by april 21 2026	Yes	SELL	1,016	1¢	$9	0xdb195b…
04-21 18:05:58	will israel conduct military action against iran by april 21 2026	Yes	BUY	566	5¢	$26	0x5400be…
04-21 16:13:52	Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in April 2026?	Yes	SELL	782	4¢	$31	0x3b0a7c…
04-21 16:12:38	will israel conduct military action against iran by april 21 2026	Yes	BUY	270	5¢	$14	0x7630c2…
04-21 16:12:26	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	Yes	SELL	36	39¢	$14	0xace59d…
04-21 15:48:30	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	Yes	BUY	36	62¢	$22	0x6b0b03…
04-21 15:47:52	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	No	SELL	44	50¢	$22	0x5735d1…
04-21 15:46:00	will israel conduct military action against iran by april 21 2026	Yes	BUY	180	5¢	$9	0x197770…
04-21 15:45:44	Will Iran strike Syria by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	951	1¢	$9	0xdea41e…
04-21 15:44:16	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	No	BUY	44	62¢	$28	0x23088e…
04-21 15:43:32	U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?	Yes	SELL	30	93¢	$28	0xcd8921…
04-21 13:41:20	U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?	Yes	BUY	30	93¢	$28	0xca5a65…
04-21 13:35:32	Israel strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	42	12¢	$5	0xa341aa…
04-21 13:34:02	Houthis successfully target shipping by April 30?	Yes	BUY	122	16¢	$20	0xc470b7…
04-21 13:33:34	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	Yes	SELL	569	10¢	$55	0xe5499b…
04-20 22:18:48	Israel strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	184	12¢	$22	0x857cac…
04-20 22:16:38	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	Yes	BUY	591	8¢	$50	0xbd0176…
04-20 16:27:08	Houthi military action against Israel by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	352	13¢	$46	0xdfc4d5…
04-20 16:26:52	will israel conduct military action against iran by april 21 2026	Yes	SELL	654	4¢	$25	0xc4cd5a…
04-20 14:52:48	Houthis successfully target shipping by April 30?	Yes	BUY	391	12¢	$46	0x8c0430…
04-20 14:52:36	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	Yes	SELL	595	8¢	$48	0x8ca2c7…
04-19 12:23:28	Will Israel strike 2 countries in April 2026?	No	BUY	9	23¢	$2	0x6a6671…
04-19 12:23:14	will trump announce that the us x iran ceasefire has been broken by april 21 2026	No	SELL	252	1¢	$2	0x189c7a…
04-19 12:17:22	Israel strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	111	8¢	$9	0xfb8772…
04-19 12:01:14	will trump announce that the us x iran ceasefire has been broken by april 21 2026	No	BUY	118	52¢	$61	0xa26394…
04-19 12:01:04	Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	331	18¢	$61	0xc4fa42…
04-19 11:57:14	will trump announce that the us x iran ceasefire has been broken by april 21 2026	No	BUY	134	54¢	$73	0xdd34b7…
04-19 11:55:54	will trump announce that the us x iran ceasefire has been broken by april 21 2026	No	SELL	161	45¢	$73	0x490835…
04-19 11:47:20	Will Israel strike 2 countries in April 2026?	No	BUY	398	23¢	$92	0x37d544…
04-19 11:46:34	will trump announce that the us x iran ceasefire has been broken by april 21 2026	No	BUY	60	50¢	$30	0xc3b170…
04-19 11:46:18	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	Yes	SELL	197	62¢	$122	0xadd5a0…
04-19 11:45:10	Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	331	22¢	$71	0x9df80a…
04-19 11:44:52	will trump announce that the us x iran ceasefire has been broken by april 21 2026	No	BUY	40	62¢	$25	0xf658ef…
04-19 11:44:34	will trump announce that the us x iran ceasefire has been broken by april 21 2026	No	BUY	61	49¢	$30	0xf8b3af…
04-19 11:42:46	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	Yes	SELL	197	64¢	$126	0xc6a212…
04-19 10:01:40	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	73	63¢	$46	0x5e83c9…
04-19 09:58:16	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	Yes	SELL	595	8¢	$48	0x206b54…
04-19 09:35:50	Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in April 2026?	Yes	BUY	782	8¢	$59	0x97be1f…
04-19 09:32:42	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	Yes	BUY	1,235	8¢	$100	0xc427f3…
04-19 09:31:18	Houthis successfully target shipping by April 30?	Yes	BUY	122	24¢	$29	0xc2b6a7…
04-19 09:22:04	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	Yes	SELL	321	59¢	$188	0x3a5a41…
04-19 08:16:14	Will Iran strike Syria by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	951	3¢	$27	0x66f75d…
04-19 08:15:24	will israel conduct military action against iran by april 21 2026	Yes	BUY	654	15¢	$100	0xe39e69…
04-19 08:13:36	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	439	29¢	$127	0x48c8a7…
04-18 12:40:04	Israel strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	816	5¢	$40	0x2d9a54…
04-18 12:35:16	fisa section 702 reauthorized before it expires	No	BUY	427	7¢	$30	0xf8d22c…
04-18 12:34:12	Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,000	7¢	$70	0xec6964…
04-17 19:45:44	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	122	54¢	$66	0x8824a4…
04-17 14:25:46	Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	404	16¢	$66	0xc4778f…
04-17 08:50:42	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	641	70¢	$448	0x6d10e5…
04-17 08:14:40	Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	5¢	$50	0xd179fb…
04-16 18:02:48	Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	262	97¢	$256	0x6f9a04…
04-16 11:30:06	Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	38	39¢	$15	0x992f7b…
04-16 11:29:54	Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	76¢	$15	0x8ade2e…
04-16 11:29:38	Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	117	38¢	$44	0x979306…