True-Doubt — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$4.00K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

70.4%

Resolved

7,124

Trades

16,707

lifetime

Volume

$119.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-06

last 07-11 03:53

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 115 days

Categories

Crypto

97% 62% -$3,519

Other

3% 34% -$525

Politics

0% 80% +$45

Tech

0% 100% +$1

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-11).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-13 23:00 UTC	19	$1.0K	1,196	1,184	+13	Up	+$137	03-13 23:12
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-16 17:00 UTC	30	$761	774	763	+11	Up	+$151	03-16 17:10
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-16 16:45 UTC	15	$752	1,053	652	+401	Up	-$129	03-16 16:57
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-15 18:15 UTC	21	$716	784	725	+59	Up	+$139	03-15 18:29
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-16 06:45 UTC	44	$574	674	585	+90	Down	+$39	03-16 06:58
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-14 03:15 UTC	30	$568	608	600	+8	Up	+$93	03-14 03:25
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-16 05:15 UTC	9	$501	526	519	+8	Up	+$46	03-16 05:28
bitcoin above 72k on march 13	13	$486	1,101	1,098	+4	No	+$173	03-13 00:15
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-12 22:00 UTC	17	$434	461	454	+7	Down	+$38	03-12 22:12
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-16 18:15 UTC	22	$422	367	364	+3	Up	+$37	03-16 18:28
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-16 16:00 UTC	16	$391	436	367	+69	Up	+$37	03-16 16:12
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-16 14:30 UTC	7	$385	1,239	0	+1,239	Down	-$385	03-16 14:39
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-13 02:45 UTC	25	$381	641	286	+355	Down	+$89	03-13 03:00
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-16 21:45 UTC	6	$367	406	401	+5	Down	+$38	03-16 21:56
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-13 14:15 UTC	14	$358	527	261	+266	Up	-$47	03-13 14:24
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-13 14:30 UTC	12	$357	354	349	+5	Down	+$61	03-13 14:36
bitcoin above 74k on march 16	2	$352	1,854	1,851	+3	No	+$18	03-15 14:33
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-16 05:45 UTC	14	$348	388	383	+5	Up	+$43	03-16 05:55
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-17 15:00 UTC	16	$343	346	344	+2	Up	+$15	02-17 15:12
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-16 22:15 UTC	2	$334	284	280	+4	Down	+$25	03-16 22:18
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-16 16:30 UTC	11	$329	1,091	149	+942	Up	-$165	03-16 16:43
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-16 17:45 UTC	9	$315	340	302	+38	Up	-$3	03-16 17:55
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-16 18:30 UTC	18	$310	347	342	+5	Down	+$40	03-16 18:41
elon musk of tweets january 13 january 20 520 539	5	$306	1,259	1,222	+37	Yes	+$123	01-20 14:55
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-27 15:15 UTC	16	$304	395	291	+104	Up	+$45	02-27 15:28
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-13 02:15 UTC	17	$304	583	224	+359	Down	+$49	03-13 02:22
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-14 02:30 UTC	14	$301	365	362	+4	Down	+$34	03-14 02:44
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-15 04:15 UTC	1	$300	306	0	+306	Up	+$6	01-15 04:28
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-16 06:30 UTC	5	$297	695	0	+695	Up	-$297	03-16 06:40
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-16 13:45 UTC	9	$292	301	297	+4	Up	+$21	03-16 13:59

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-11 03:53:05	Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?	Yes	BUY	105	24¢	$25	0xc6f4ee…
07-11 03:09:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-11 03:05 UTC	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xbe31ca…
07-11 03:09:02	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-11 03:05 UTC	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x65d605…
05-13 13:54:52	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Up	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xa8412d…
05-13 07:29:35	Solana Up or Down - May 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Up	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x3b80b6…
05-12 22:53:04	Solana Up or Down - May 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Up	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x8d2da9…
05-12 17:08:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Up	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x886989…
05-12 15:44:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x1ebcba…
05-12 01:54:02	Solana Up or Down - May 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Up	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x1fed97…
05-12 01:43:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x433557…
05-12 00:14:01	Solana Up or Down - May 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x6297b8…
05-12 00:09:00	Solana Up or Down - May 11, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Up	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x9fd426…
05-11 07:43:05	Solana Up or Down - May 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0xf23f18…
05-11 05:28:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x97a5f0…
05-11 04:43:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Up	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x24da0f…
05-11 04:13:12	Solana Up or Down - May 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xc67b67…
05-11 01:23:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x5dbb6e…
05-10 22:58:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Up	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x3a3fee…
05-10 19:23:11	Solana Up or Down - May 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x595364…
05-10 16:23:11	Solana Up or Down - May 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Up	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x34ee6e…
05-10 01:38:57	Solana Up or Down - May 9, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x28c9bb…
05-09 20:59:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x8ac37d…
05-09 19:43:05	Solana Up or Down - May 9, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x93d88b…
05-09 18:53:04	Solana Up or Down - May 9, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Down	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x1c1172…
05-09 18:13:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x30cda1…
05-09 16:38:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x630faf…
05-08 22:13:57	Solana Up or Down - May 8, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xd6e4b7…
05-08 22:13:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x2477f4…
05-08 07:53:55	Solana Up or Down - May 8, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x66fb47…
05-08 05:53:05	Solana Up or Down - May 8, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Down	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x1f62ea…
05-08 05:08:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Down	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x87bf64…
05-08 04:28:07	Solana Up or Down - May 8, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Down	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xe2ce46…
05-08 01:43:55	Solana Up or Down - May 7, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x98bd02…
05-07 22:08:55	Solana Up or Down - May 7, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x65e490…
05-07 19:58:56	Solana Up or Down - May 7, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x944211…
05-07 18:38:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xac578d…
05-07 17:38:56	Solana Up or Down - May 7, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x9686b4…
05-07 17:28:55	Solana Up or Down - May 7, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Down	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x9a6c4d…
05-07 07:23:53	Solana Up or Down - May 7, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Up	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x294a38…
05-07 05:38:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Up	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0xf29766…
05-07 05:13:05	Solana Up or Down - May 7, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x773bbe…
05-07 04:23:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Down	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x8db57c…
05-06 19:43:53	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x249fa0…
05-06 19:28:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Down	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x76abf0…
05-06 18:38:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Down	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x4a8eec…
05-06 16:58:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0xf39b25…
05-06 10:24:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x22b273…
05-06 05:29:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Down	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x7c91e6…
05-06 05:08:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Down	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x7f1074…
05-06 04:58:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x8b7cbb…
05-05 23:58:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x9b07ed…
05-05 17:58:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xe51c2e…
05-05 05:13:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Up	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x84f4b3…
05-05 04:53:34	Solana Up or Down - May 5, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Down	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x8eacb2…
05-04 23:53:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Up	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x8f47b0…
05-04 17:43:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Down	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x33ccd9…
05-04 16:13:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x0f586f…
05-04 05:24:20	Solana Up or Down - May 4, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Up	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xd2aafb…
05-04 01:14:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Down	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0xc8aeec…
05-04 01:08:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Up	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x7c69e3…
05-04 00:28:06	Solana Up or Down - May 3, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x1217ff…
05-03 20:29:52	Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xd8ebad…
05-03 19:08:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x982c88…
05-03 18:53:20	Solana Up or Down - May 3, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Up	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x0f7e5e…
05-03 18:08:20	Solana Up or Down - May 3, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0xdb7622…
05-03 05:43:04	Solana Up or Down - May 3, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xc5d039…
05-02 17:13:06	Solana Up or Down - May 2, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x582b4f…
04-29 16:13:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x22b753…
04-29 05:28:50	Solana Up or Down - April 29, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xe10c65…
04-29 04:28:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Up	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0xab72dd…
04-29 00:58:04	Solana Up or Down - April 28, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x25ee4d…
04-29 00:53:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Up	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x72b73b…
04-28 23:43:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x90ce87…
04-28 22:39:04	Solana Up or Down - April 28, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Down	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0xae65fd…
04-28 05:00:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x241e07…
04-27 19:38:04	Solana Up or Down - April 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Up	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x635a4f…
04-26 23:58:36	Solana Up or Down - April 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x6435b1…
04-26 23:53:04	Solana Up or Down - April 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Up	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x089f8e…
04-26 23:08:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x6862c2…
04-26 22:53:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Down	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xed15c1…
04-26 22:24:36	Solana Up or Down - April 26, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Down	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0xb745a8…
04-26 19:58:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x4f14d8…
04-26 19:38:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Down	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x2ca6d7…
04-26 19:23:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Down	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x94855c…
04-26 18:23:36	Solana Up or Down - April 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0xe84a5e…
04-26 18:23:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x4cd37a…
04-26 17:43:34	Solana Up or Down - April 26, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0xefe686…
04-26 16:53:04	Solana Up or Down - April 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Up	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0xbb1438…
04-26 16:08:06	Solana Up or Down - April 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Down	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x52e625…
04-26 04:43:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Up	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x110923…
04-26 04:38:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Up	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0xb5e045…
04-26 04:08:06	Solana Up or Down - April 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Up	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x8c9846…
04-26 01:23:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Up	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x5db62e…
04-26 00:53:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Up	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x7b625f…
04-25 19:08:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Down	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x953406…
04-25 18:53:34	Solana Up or Down - April 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Up	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0xdfc9cd…
04-25 18:28:06	Solana Up or Down - April 25, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Up	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x395b0c…
04-25 18:13:32	Solana Up or Down - April 25, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xf9f2b0…
04-25 18:08:34	Solana Up or Down - April 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x2bc082…
04-25 07:08:06	Solana Up or Down - April 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Down	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x4c9dbc…