Simplistic-Subprime — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$198

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

66.7%

Resolved

5,936

Trades

10,171

lifetime

Volume

$33.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-15

last 10-26 16:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 75 days

Categories

Crypto

99% 56% -$184

Other

1% 64% -$14

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

38 active days in 12wk • peak 752 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-24 03:15 UTC	33	$1.2K	4,395	1,046	+3,349	Up	-$750	03-24 03:28
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-23 20:15 UTC	22	$786	1,003	991	+11	Up	+$182	03-23 20:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-24 02:55 UTC	11	$541	2,719	558	+2,161	Down	-$389	03-24 02:58
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-23 22:30 UTC	8	$311	1,297	262	+1,035	Up	+$822	03-23 22:33
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-24 03:30 UTC	10	$229	333	249	+85	Down	-$40	03-24 03:34
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-23 19:00 UTC	9	$135	130	129	+1	Down	+$76	03-23 19:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-23 21:20 UTC	3	$127	215	102	+114	Up	+$80	03-23 21:22
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-23 19:00 UTC	9	$111	97	95	+1	Up	+$32	03-23 19:04
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-23 18:15 UTC	11	$110	127	125	+2	Down	+$9	03-23 18:26
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-24 04:30 UTC	2	$102	4,416	100	+4,316	Down	-$98	03-24 04:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-27 21:30 UTC	7	$101	73	73	+1	Down	+$0	03-27 21:34
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-23 20:00 UTC	3	$82	112	56	+56	Up	-$30	03-23 19:50
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-24 04:45 UTC	4	$79	119	85	+34	Down	+$2	03-24 04:48
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-23 23:15 UTC	3	$78	351	119	+232	Up	+$191	03-23 23:20
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-23 18:30 UTC	8	$77	71	60	+11	Up	+$4	03-23 18:40
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-24 05:00 UTC	7	$74	426	77	+349	Down	-$51	03-24 05:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-27 19:10 UTC	13	$73	70	69	+1	Down	+$11	03-27 19:16
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-23 22:45 UTC	3	$65	163	41	+123	Up	-$17	03-23 22:49
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-23 18:55 UTC	8	$65	61	60	+1	Up	+$5	03-23 18:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-23 19:05 UTC	9	$65	115	49	+66	Down	+$42	03-23 19:09
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-24 04:45 UTC	3	$62	99	39	+60	Up	-$30	03-24 04:45
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-24 04:25 UTC	3	$62	82	41	+41	Down	+$21	03-24 04:20
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-27 17:45 UTC	9	$60	97	96	+1	Up	-$1	03-27 17:46
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-24 04:15 UTC	3	$59	76	38	+38	Down	+$18	03-24 04:10
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-24 04:55 UTC	2	$58	171	45	+127	Down	-$31	03-24 04:58
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-23 19:10 UTC	7	$57	60	50	+10	Down	-$3	03-23 19:10
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-23 20:45 UTC	1	$53	140	0	+140	Down	-$53	03-23 20:55
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-24 07:15 UTC	6	$50	96	41	+55	Up	-$19	03-24 07:20
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-27 21:35 UTC	7	$50	86	85	+1	Down	-$11	03-27 21:36
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-16 19:00 UTC	9	$48	32	32	+0	Up	+$9	09-16 19:09

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 16:59:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xe78fd7…
10-26 16:59:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x85f278…
10-26 16:14:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	51¢	$2	0xd742c6…
10-26 16:14:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	Up	BUY	0	51¢	$0	0x3c621e…
10-26 15:26:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x2ef65b…
10-26 15:14:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0xa838ef…
10-26 14:42:20	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Up	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0x78e252…
10-26 14:42:12	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Up	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xb3e338…
10-26 14:29:42	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xb7f1d1…
10-26 14:24:20	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x217747…
10-26 14:19:24	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x70c3ea…
10-26 13:44:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x4c0c39…
10-26 13:14:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x6398cf…
10-26 12:44:39	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x4b2862…
10-26 12:39:27	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0xb7dd3c…
10-02 18:48:15	Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0xd477ef…
10-02 18:48:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xc1c413…
10-02 18:48:09	Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xf44611…
10-02 18:48:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x9b1a46…
10-02 18:48:03	Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0xef81ac…
10-02 18:48:02	Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x0dcc07…
10-02 18:48:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x515675…
10-02 18:47:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xd09033…
10-02 18:47:26	Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xdd39a1…
10-02 18:45:14	Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x3dccfe…
10-02 18:45:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x14e7ef…
10-02 18:45:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x998edc…
10-02 18:42:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x9c76bb…
10-02 18:42:08	Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x83fbf3…
10-02 18:39:14	Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Down	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0xc06b9e…
10-02 18:37:27	Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x58cc94…
10-02 18:34:23	Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x1e751d…
10-02 18:30:44	Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x671a96…
10-02 18:30:39	Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x7e86ba…
10-02 18:25:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xf175ce…
10-02 18:25:17	Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xb68a48…
10-02 18:14:06	Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x21f66f…
10-02 18:13:03	Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x7e194d…
10-02 18:10:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Up	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x79a1d0…
10-02 18:10:27	Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x20a211…
10-02 18:09:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0xa8843b…
10-02 18:07:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xad2eaf…
10-02 18:04:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0x4b5f76…
10-02 18:01:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x69d7a1…
10-02 17:59:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x02b7cb…
10-02 17:59:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xb933f8…
10-02 17:57:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x53e2e4…
10-02 17:50:47	Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Down	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x26a1a4…
10-02 17:48:26	Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x2bfb26…
10-02 17:48:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x74d5e4…
10-02 17:46:12	Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Down	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x075c24…
10-02 17:42:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x1d8bc6…
10-02 17:41:21	Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x1282c6…
10-02 17:38:11	Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x72385f…
10-02 17:32:35	Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Down	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0xd075be…
10-02 17:30:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x167f55…
10-02 17:30:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xea28a2…
10-02 17:26:30	Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xf77882…
10-02 17:22:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xa76e67…
10-02 17:19:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	Up	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xaaadfc…
10-02 17:19:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xf67f0d…
10-02 17:17:08	Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xe54311…
10-02 17:17:06	Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x6b1cab…
10-02 17:13:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Down	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x618cd6…
10-02 17:13:14	Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Down	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0x88beef…
10-02 17:10:21	Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Up	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x7ddaea…
10-02 17:06:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x93d715…
10-02 17:06:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xfde760…
10-02 17:06:18	Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xc7e72c…
10-02 17:05:14	Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x6f286a…
10-02 17:00:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Down	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xc0c230…
10-02 17:00:11	Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Down	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x641f7a…
10-02 17:00:02	Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x39e79c…
10-02 16:58:56	Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET	Down	SELL	3	98¢	$3	0x5235db…
10-02 16:57:21	Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x40096f…
10-02 16:55:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x98b691…
10-02 16:51:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x70f86b…
10-02 16:51:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Up	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0xa743f5…
10-02 16:47:33	Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x47f1fc…
10-02 16:47:33	Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Down	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x390476…
10-02 16:45:05	Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x16df31…
10-02 16:44:44	Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Up	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x28f701…
10-02 16:44:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	109	1¢	$1	0x22ff23…
10-02 16:43:14	Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x03ae7c…
10-02 16:40:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xd9e3c3…
10-02 16:36:14	Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x8c0520…
10-02 16:35:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x3fc418…
10-02 16:34:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x3fb9d4…
10-02 16:31:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Up	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0xfb7bba…
10-02 16:29:35	Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Up	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0xe4e172…
10-02 16:29:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Up	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0x5d3912…
10-02 16:26:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xc3ab04…
10-02 16:26:17	Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xb7a242…
10-02 16:23:20	Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0x27de49…
10-02 16:21:29	Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x772fe1…
10-02 16:14:02	Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Down	SELL	3	98¢	$3	0x0a98c5…
10-02 16:13:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Down	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xf99c99…
10-02 16:13:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x936d39…
10-02 16:12:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Down	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0xa294be…
10-02 16:08:05	Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Down	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0xe1c3fc…