Realized P&L
+$173
Unrealized P&L
+$159
Hit rate
80.2%
Resolved
39
Trades
13,642
lifetime
Volume
$284.1K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$21
Open exposure
$1.09K
24 positions
First seen
2026-04-21
last 06-26 16:34
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 10 days
Categories
Politics
59% 0% $-50
Crypto
19% 53% +$243
Other
14% 47% $-20
Tech
8%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
65 active days in 12wk • peak 1217 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027? No +740 $514 92¢ $685 +$170 06-25 10:05
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by June 30? No +143 $88 100¢ $142 +$54 06-23 12:47
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Yes -82 $-11 100¢ $-82 $-71 06-20 20:06
Cambria FDV above $70M one day after launch? No +61 $46 86¢ $52 +$6 06-26 01:47
Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by June 30? No +44 $43 100¢ $44 +$1 06-24 09:14
Will Russia capture Prymorske by June 30, 2026? No -30 $-30 100¢ $-30 $-0 06-07 11:35
Cambria FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes +61 $12 23¢ $14 +$2 06-26 01:47
Anthropic acquired before 2027? Yes +740 $62 $12 $-49 06-25 10:05
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? No -16 $-17 76¢ $-12 +$5 06-21 11:11
Metamask FDV above $4B one day after launch? No -8 $-7 94¢ $-8 $-1 06-16 00:08
Will Mathilde Panot be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes +185 $7 $5 $-2 06-24 17:27
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No -2 $-41 100¢ $-2 +$39 06-18 12:24
Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes -8 $-1 16¢ $-1 +$0 06-16 00:08
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30? Yes +144 $-7 $0 +$7 06-23 12:47
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026? Yes -217 $-196 $-0 +$196 06-23 15:32
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes +100 $67 $0 $-67 06-07 19:17
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Yes -140 $314 $-0 $-314 06-26 16:08
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? Yes +0 $-1 93¢ $0 +$1 06-10 07:55
Will Russia capture Prymorske by June 30, 2026? Yes -30 $-0 $-0 +$0 06-07 11:35
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? No +0 $-172 94¢ $0 +$172 06-07 23:52
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes +13 $4 $0 $-4 05-31 15:13
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? No +0 $-55 100¢ $0 +$55 06-21 01:05
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 No +0 $23 16¢ $0 $-23 06-07 23:52
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Yes +0 $17 $0 $-17 06-22 15:29