Realized P&L
+$4.88K
Unrealized P&L
+$410
Hit rate
76.5%
Resolved
1,198
Trades
23,579
lifetime
Volume
$422.0K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$18
Open exposure
$670
6 positions
First seen
2026-04-21
last 06-26 16:34
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 81 days
Categories
Politics
54%
65%
+$2,391
Crypto
20%
56%
+$1,139
Other
16%
60%
+$634
Tech
9%
71%
+$616
Sports
1%
64%
+$95
Pop-Culture
0%
100%
+$2
Activity
No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-06-26).
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027? | No | +680 | $459 | 99¢ | $670 | +$211 | 06-25 10:05 | |
| Fannie Mae IPO before 2027? | Yes | +1 | $1 | 3¢ | $0 | -$1 | 04-28 23:45 | |
| 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | No | +0 | -$172 | 97¢ | $0 | +$172 | 06-07 23:52 | |
| Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? | Yes | +0 | -$55 | 96¢ | $0 | +$55 | 06-12 09:19 | |
| Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 | No | +0 | $23 | 19¢ | $0 | -$23 | 06-07 23:52 | |
| Freddie Mac IPO before 2027? | Yes | +0 | $3 | 5¢ | $0 | -$3 | 05-02 16:00 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | 3,515 | $78.6K | 57,937 | 57,702 | +235 | Yes | +$3,526 | 06-20 18:49 |
| Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? | 3,586 | $35.8K | 60,288 | 60,190 | +98 | No | -$2,437 | 06-20 18:49 |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? | 288 | $13.4K | 8,273 | 8,242 | +31 | No | +$343 | 05-26 01:28 |
| GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? | 486 | $9.9K | 7,225 | 7,225 | +0 | No | -$432 | 06-26 16:08 |
| Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? | 892 | $8.0K | 7,793 | 7,793 | +0 | Yes | +$54 | 06-20 20:06 |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? | 238 | $8.0K | 6,565 | 6,550 | +15 | No | -$78 | 05-26 01:25 |
| Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? | 897 | $7.5K | 7,803 | 7,786 | +17 | Yes | +$149 | 06-20 20:06 |
| bitcoin above 66k on june 17 2026 | 109 | $7.0K | 3,845 | 3,437 | +408 | No | +$145 | 06-17 15:53 |
| Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? | 102 | $6.9K | 3,565 | 3,565 | +0 | Yes | +$85 | 06-08 19:51 |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31? | 96 | $6.4K | 3,677 | 3,677 | +0 | No | +$497 | 05-26 01:08 |
| ethereum above 2100 on june 10 2026 | 64 | $6.3K | 3,188 | 3,188 | +0 | No | +$53 | 06-10 02:02 |
| us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 436 | 122 | $5.6K | 3,008 | 3,008 | +0 | Yes | +$3 | 06-20 14:09 |
| Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 8 and June 14, 2026? | 176 | $5.0K | 2,840 | 2,840 | +0 | No | +$99 | 06-11 16:37 |
| Will Trump visit China by May 31? | 157 | $4.7K | 2,992 | 2,967 | +25 | Yes | +$38 | 05-10 13:34 |
| us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252 | 62 | $4.6K | 2,663 | 2,663 | +0 | Yes | +$54 | 06-15 08:58 |
| Will Russia enter Dobropillia by June 30? | 60 | $4.6K | 2,503 | 2,360 | +143 | No | +$55 | 06-23 12:47 |
| Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026? | 222 | $4.5K | 2,870 | 2,869 | +0 | No | +$26 | 06-23 15:32 |
| bitcoin above 64k on june 15 2026 | 69 | $4.4K | 4,241 | 396 | +3,845 | Yes | +$219 | 06-15 10:08 |
| bitcoin above 64k on june 9 2026 | 42 | $4.0K | 4,043 | 69 | +3,974 | No | +$85 | 06-09 14:08 |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? | 43 | $3.6K | 3,676 | 268 | +3,408 | No | +$323 | 05-30 14:18 |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? | 178 | $3.6K | 5,966 | 5,966 | +0 | No | -$150 | 05-26 01:12 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $58,000 on June 10? | 37 | $3.5K | 3,598 | 0 | +3,598 | No | +$71 | 06-10 12:34 |
| Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? | 391 | $3.5K | 6,085 | 6,068 | +16 | Yes | +$511 | 06-26 16:08 |
| bitcoin above 62k on june 8 2026 | 95 | $3.5K | 3,716 | 360 | +3,356 | Yes | -$18 | 06-08 15:01 |
| russia x ukraine ceasefire by june 30 2026 631 | 38 | $3.3K | 1,688 | 1,688 | +0 | No | +$30 | 06-22 15:29 |
| Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? | 201 | $3.1K | 2,275 | 2,215 | +60 | No | +$150 | 05-29 23:44 |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15? | 114 | $2.9K | 2,850 | 2,850 | +0 | No | +$109 | 05-26 00:28 |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30? | 62 | $2.9K | 1,920 | 1,920 | +0 | No | +$22 | 05-25 23:54 |
| ethereum above 2000 on june 8 2026 | 28 | $2.8K | 1,400 | 1,400 | +0 | No | +$27 | 06-07 08:51 |
| bitcoin above 52k on june 14 2026 | 28 | $2.8K | 1,400 | 1,400 | +0 | Yes | +$27 | 06-11 23:11 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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