Realized P&L
+$173
Unrealized P&L
+$283
Hit rate
80.2%
Resolved
39
Trades
6,741
lifetime
Volume
$145.0K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$22
Open exposure
$3.28K
17 positions
First seen
2026-04-21
last 06-10 00:30
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 10 days
Categories
Politics
52% 0% $-50
Crypto
24% 53% +$243
Other
16% 47% $-20
Tech
8%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
49 active days in 12wk • peak 1217 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by June 30? No +1,100 $1,002 97¢ $1.1K +$66 06-09 08:16
Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027? No +1,136 $879 92¢ $1.1K +$172 06-07 23:36
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes +2,203 $925 36¢ $782 $-143 06-09 16:57
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Yes +256 $213 94¢ $239 +$26 06-10 00:30
Anthropic acquired before 2027? Yes +1,137 $78 $56 $-22 06-07 23:36
Will Russia capture Prymorske by June 30, 2026? No -30 $-30 96¢ $-29 +$1 06-07 11:35
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30? Yes +1,100 $50 $26 $-24 06-09 08:16
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes +100 $67 26¢ $26 $-42 06-07 19:17
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes +13 $4 10¢ $1 $-2 05-31 15:13
Will Russia capture Prymorske by June 30, 2026? Yes -30 $-0 $-1 $-1 06-07 11:35
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Yes +0 $-17 100¢ $0 +$17 06-07 21:19
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Yes +0 $-84 99¢ $0 +$84 06-08 19:51
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026? Yes +0 $-1 90¢ $0 +$1 06-07 06:07
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? Yes +0 $-1 98¢ $0 +$1 05-28 09:42
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? No +0 $-172 94¢ $0 +$172 06-07 23:52
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No +0 $-0 88¢ $0 +$0 06-08 21:30
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 No +0 $23 29¢ $0 $-23 06-07 23:52