Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$96

Unrealized P&L

-$4

Hit rate

85.5%

Resolved

153

Trades

217

lifetime

Volume

$4.30K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$20

Open exposure

$33

2 positions

First seen

2026-07-28

last 11-01 04:39

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 29 days

Categories

Other

70% 89% -$92

Politics

26% 89% -$20

Tech

4% 100% +$15

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

28 active days in 12wk • peak 29 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?	No		+20	$18	94¢	$19	+$0	10-31 18:08
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the next Lima mayoral elections?	Yes		+20	$18	72¢	$14	-$4	10-04 03:23

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $0.70T and $0.80T on July 31?	1	$60	139	0	+139	No	-$60	07-30 03:03
Will Raphaël Glucksmann finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary?	2	$54	27	27	+0	No	+$1	10-11 17:57
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 11?	2	$54	29	29	+0	Yes	+$1	10-11 17:58
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	1	$50	66	0	+66	Yes	+$16	07-29 00:03
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of July?	1	$50	119	0	+119	No	-$50	07-31 01:17
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 12?	2	$46	25	25	+0	No	+$2	10-11 17:57
Will Olivier Faure win the first round of the French Socialist primary?	2	$45	23	23	+0	No	+$0	10-11 17:56
Will Ségolène Royal win the first round of the French Socialist primary?	2	$44	23	23	+0	No	+$0	10-11 17:56
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on October 10, 2026?	2	$37	21	21	+0	Yes	+$0	10-09 03:35
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on October 13, 2026?	2	$37	21	21	+0	Yes	+$0	10-09 02:18
Will the Republican Party win the CA-50 House seat?	1	$37	39	0	+39	open	—	10-28 11:39
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on October 12, 2026?	2	$37	21	21	+0	Yes	+$1	10-09 02:20
Will Argentina's monthly inflation in September 2026 be between 2.2% and 2.4%?	2	$36	21	21	+0	No	-$1	10-11 17:58
Will PPI YoY be 5.6% in September?	2	$36	27	27	+0	No	-$12	10-15 02:32
Will the Republican Party win the WA-09 House seat?	1	$34	35	0	+35	open	—	10-23 12:32
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision?	2	$34	24	24	+0	No	-$10	10-16 00:02
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision?	2	$31	22	22	+0	Yes	-$9	10-16 00:02
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on last trading day of July?	1	$30	150	0	+150	Yes	-$30	07-31 14:16
spx up or down on july 28 2026	1	$30	60	0	+60	Up	+$30	07-28 15:03
Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 19, 2026?	2	$30	31	31	+0	Yes	-$24	10-16 03:00
Will the Republican Party win the OK-02 House seat?	1	$30	30	0	+30	open	—	10-22 03:32
Will Atsumi Harasawa win the 2026 Yokohama mayoral election?	2	$29	22	22	+0	Yes	-$8	10-11 17:59
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	1	$29	30	0	+30	No	+$1	10-15 08:18
Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?	1	$29	30	0	+30	Yes	+$2	10-16 01:24
Will JOLTS Job Openings be below 6.8M in September?	1	$29	32	0	+32	open	—	10-30 21:58
Will George Galloway finish third in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?	1	$27	29	0	+29	No	+$1	10-08 10:37
Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election be less than 76%?	1	$27	28	0	+28	No	+$1	10-15 19:28
Will PPI YoY be 5.0% or less in September?	1	$27	29	0	+29	No	+$2	10-08 09:09
Will South Korea GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.4%?	1	$27	30	0	+30	No	+$3	10-14 14:41
Will Riyadh airport be closed by October 15?	1	$27	30	0	+30	Yes	-$27	10-09 03:37

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-01 04:39:57	Will the US add between 0 and 25k jobs in October?	No	BUY	17	90¢	$15	0x7f041f…
11-01 04:39:34	Will the US national average gas price be between $4.1600 and $4.1699 on November 1?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$19	0x40556d…
10-31 23:44:48	Will ISM Services PMI be below 51.0 in October?	No	BUY	21	98¢	$20	0xb17978…
10-31 21:45:58	Will UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.4% and 0.5%?	No	BUY	23	87¢	$20	0x40d47a…
10-31 20:54:45	Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.4%?	No	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0x57d289…
10-31 20:52:10	Will UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 be at least 1.0%?	No	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0xbd7b44…
10-31 19:18:27	Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $5.50 on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0x13a4dd…
10-31 18:11:25	Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 56.0 and 56.9 in October?	No	BUY	22	90¢	$20	0xb45559…
10-31 18:10:46	Will any other model be the best AI model on November 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	94¢	$20	0x2aa690…
10-31 18:08:22	No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0x3716ad…
10-31 18:08:06	Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.75 and $3.00 on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	22	95¢	$21	0xb3e4dd…
10-30 21:58:49	Will JOLTS Job Openings be below 6.8M in September?	No	BUY	32	91¢	$29	0x2f5219…
10-30 05:05:28	Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.0%?	No	BUY	24	96¢	$23	0x05e7f0…
10-29 17:23:01	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in October?	No	BUY	22	90¢	$20	0x50b4b8…
10-29 17:22:50	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or less in October?	No	BUY	21	92¢	$20	0x58935d…
10-29 17:21:22	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.0% or less in October?	No	BUY	21	94¢	$20	0x4d16d7…
10-29 17:11:10	Will the Republican Party win the MO-07 House seat?	Yes	BUY	20	97¢	$20	0x2dec5b…
10-29 17:10:47	Will the Republican Party win the PA-09 House seat?	Yes	BUY	20	96¢	$20	0xfbbc74…
10-29 17:10:10	Will the Democratic Party win the MO-06 House seat?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x812906…
10-29 17:10:02	Will the Democratic Party win the TX-33 House seat?	Yes	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xa4b652…
10-29 17:09:52	Will the Democratic Party win the IN-06 House seat?	No	BUY	23	98¢	$23	0x2c3029…
10-28 11:40:46	Will the Republican Party win the FL-06 House seat?	Yes	BUY	25	97¢	$24	0x888907…
10-28 11:39:07	Will the Republican Party win the CA-50 House seat?	No	BUY	39	97¢	$37	0x5f6294…
10-26 19:40:44	Will the Democratic Party win the NH-01 House seat?	Yes	BUY	18	96¢	$18	0xc186d9…
10-26 19:40:33	Will the Democratic Party win the OH-05 House seat?	No	BUY	18	97¢	$18	0x4b0f82…
10-26 19:40:24	Will the Republican Party win the CA-49 House seat?	No	BUY	18	97¢	$18	0x345510…
10-26 19:39:56	Will MiniMax be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	27	98¢	$26	0x8186f6…
10-26 18:06:29	Will the Democratic Party win the CA-28 House seat?	Yes	BUY	20	98¢	$19	0x10d2a5…
10-26 12:00:38	Will the Democratic Party win the MA-04 House seat?	Yes	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0xe1bae5…
10-26 11:14:27	Will the Republican Party win the GA-09 House seat?	Yes	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0x8f6bb3…
10-26 11:12:45	Will the Democratic Party win the TX-12 House seat?	No	BUY	13	97¢	$13	0x79055c…
10-26 11:12:32	Will the Republican Party win the IL-06 House seat?	No	BUY	27	98¢	$26	0xb0211f…
10-26 11:11:30	Will the Democratic Party win the MN-04 House seat?	Yes	BUY	19	98¢	$19	0x65c4f7…
10-26 11:11:11	Will the Democratic Party win the CA-07 House seat?	Yes	BUY	19	98¢	$19	0xa92f57…
10-26 11:10:53	Will the Republican Party win the TN-08 House seat?	Yes	BUY	19	98¢	$19	0x8bfa8b…
10-26 11:10:30	Will the Republican Party win the NY-20 House seat?	No	BUY	23	97¢	$22	0xf92fae…
10-23 12:50:12	Will the Republican Party win the MI-11 House seat?	No	BUY	13	98¢	$13	0x87d14f…
10-23 12:32:27	Will the Republican Party win the WA-09 House seat?	No	BUY	35	98¢	$34	0xa9e057…
10-22 03:35:54	Will the Democratic Party win the NY-23 House seat?	No	BUY	9	98¢	$9	0xab10f5…
10-22 03:32:48	Will the Republican Party win the OK-02 House seat?	Yes	BUY	30	98¢	$30	0x13da10…
10-21 08:05:33	Will the Democratic Party win the KY-01 House seat?	No	BUY	13	98¢	$13	0x7da0d3…
10-21 08:04:42	Will the Democratic Party win the NY-10 House seat?	Yes	BUY	13	98¢	$13	0x3f2814…
10-21 08:04:33	Will the Democratic Party win the AL-01 House seat?	No	BUY	27	98¢	$26	0x4b9eff…
10-20 08:16:53	Will MiniMax have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	22	98¢	$22	0xc99126…
10-19 04:20:44	Will Google be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	27	97¢	$26	0x8c1253…
10-19 04:18:26	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.80% in October?	No	BUY	7	96¢	$7	0x74ea52…
10-19 04:18:15	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	27	97¢	$26	0x4786a4…
10-18 11:41:54	Will Anthropic be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0xc6fa3c…
10-18 09:13:54	Will Google have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$19	0x42e766…
10-18 09:10:44	Will DeepSeek be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x919d75…
10-18 09:03:09	Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	25	97¢	$24	0xff86f8…
10-18 02:04:14	Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	16	94¢	$15	0xbd2206…
10-18 02:04:05	Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	16	96¢	$16	0xdb7123…
10-18 02:03:57	Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	17	94¢	$16	0xc96f1c…
10-18 02:03:51	Will MiniMax be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	16	97¢	$16	0xf43654…
10-18 02:03:29	Republicans favored to win the Senate on Nate Silver's Bulletin by October 31?	No	BUY	16	96¢	$16	0xba3190…
10-18 02:03:21	Will Xiaomi be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	16	97¢	$16	0xf4f35f…
10-18 02:03:08	Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	16	96¢	$16	0x86f89f…
10-18 02:02:54	Will OpenAI be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	16	97¢	$16	0x0fe10a…
10-18 02:02:35	Will DeepSeek be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	18	98¢	$18	0x0deda0…
10-17 08:29:38	will the white house call a full lid by 630 pm on october 19 2026	No	BUY	19	93¢	$18	0x3b961a…
10-17 01:05:56	Will Core PCE YoY be 3.2% in September?	No	BUY	19	92¢	$17	0x80f0de…
10-17 00:51:53	Will UK annual inflation be at least 4.0% in September?	No	BUY	18	98¢	$17	0x46d677…
10-16 22:31:12	Will South Korea GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 3.5% and 3.9%?	No	BUY	18	95¢	$17	0xac2812…
10-16 18:41:54	Will claude-fable-5.1-max be the best AI model on October 26, 2026?	No	BUY	18	96¢	$17	0x724e2f…
10-16 18:17:02	Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 3.7% and 4.0%?	No	BUY	18	98¢	$17	0x9ca1c9…
10-16 18:16:11	Will Core PCE YoY be 2.9% in September?	No	BUY	18	94¢	$17	0xe135d1…
10-16 18:15:50	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	19	88¢	$17	0xcfb507…
10-16 03:11:13	Will any other model be the best AI model on October 19, 2026?	No	SELL	23	10¢	$2	0xa33846…
10-16 03:00:31	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	31	10¢	$3	0xfb5bcf…
10-16 01:24:42	Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	30	95¢	$29	0xb1132e…
10-16 01:24:19	Will Core PCE MoM be 0.2% in September?	No	BUY	18	94¢	$17	0xcaf352…
10-16 01:24:12	Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	18	95¢	$17	0x1016ee…
10-16 01:24:04	Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?	No	BUY	19	92¢	$17	0x7b61bb…
10-16 01:23:58	Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?	No	BUY	26	86¢	$23	0x9e7c8a…
10-16 01:01:21	Will Lorenzo Pazolini win the Governor of Espírito Santo election?	Yes	BUY	24	96¢	$23	0x4d4feb…
10-16 00:04:27	Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Minas Gerais?	No	BUY	24	93¢	$23	0x500769…
10-16 00:02:34	Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision?	No	SELL	24	50¢	$12	0x8ffb39…
10-16 00:02:07	Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision?	Yes	SELL	22	50¢	$11	0x3feab8…
10-15 19:28:37	Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election be less than 76%?	No	BUY	28	97¢	$27	0x3a6e9b…
10-15 08:36:58	Will Procreate Pocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on October 16?	No	BUY	19	98¢	$18	0x44cf87…
10-15 08:18:50	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	No	BUY	30	96¢	$29	0x6ff810…
10-15 02:34:22	Will UK annual inflation be between 3.1% and 3.3% in September?	No	BUY	19	85¢	$16	0x1fe725…
10-15 02:32:58	Will PPI YoY be 5.6% in September?	No	SELL	27	45¢	$12	0xd5cc57…
10-14 14:43:25	Will the Bank of Korea hold at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	11	97¢	$10	0x83683c…
10-14 14:41:55	Will South Korea GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.4%?	No	BUY	30	89¢	$27	0x9df947…
10-14 14:35:28	Will Muse from Meta be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 16?	No	BUY	16	93¢	$15	0xd3e5d1…
10-14 14:35:16	Will the Bank of Korea hike by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	23	98¢	$22	0x6228c6…
10-14 14:34:54	Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	BUY	25	89¢	$22	0x5308d5…
10-14 14:34:34	Will UK annual inflation be between 3.7% and 3.9% in September?	No	BUY	21	84¢	$18	0xab6caf…
10-14 14:34:27	Will PPI YoY be 5.3% in September?	No	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0x5a2a55…
10-14 14:34:21	Will Ricardo Ferraço win the Governor of Espírito Santo election?	No	BUY	18	97¢	$18	0xfa9c32…
10-14 14:34:07	Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the October Meeting?	No	BUY	23	89¢	$20	0x65d7c9…
10-14 14:33:42	Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.0% and 4.3%?	No	BUY	21	93¢	$20	0x492f85…
10-14 12:30:29	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.6% in September?	No	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0x7d8c7b…
10-13 13:00:20	Will BlackRock (BLK) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	21	4¢	$1	0x425d54…
10-13 10:32:53	Will HotSchedules be #2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on October 16?	Yes	BUY	8	84¢	$7	0x40251a…
10-13 10:31:47	Will JPMorgan Chase (JPM) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	20	29¢	$6	0x6442ad…
10-13 07:14:11	Will AnkiMobile Flashcards be #2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on October 16?	No	BUY	22	98¢	$21	0x8d5116…
10-13 07:12:07	Will play_music_theory be #2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on October 16?	No	BUY	11	98¢	$11	0xecf6c4…