Valuable-Furnace — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$20

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

97.5%

Resolved

117

Trades

135

lifetime

Volume

$1.71K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-07

last 10-29 17:44

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 47 days

Categories

Other

53% 100% +$4

Crypto

24% 100% +$2

Politics

20% 89% -$26

Tech

3% 100% +$0

Sports

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

24 active days in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	5	$158	99	60	+39	No	+$0	09-07 16:55
LAPTOP FDV above $10M one day after launch?	2	$120	61	61	+0	Yes	+$1	09-10 00:54
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	2	$99	50	50	+0	No	+$0	10-05 07:44
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	2	$96	50	50	+0	No	+$0	08-26 16:38
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?	1	$62	62	0	+62	No	+$0	09-21 20:34
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	1	$61	62	0	+62	Yes	+$0	09-16 00:02
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	1	$61	61	0	+61	No	+$0	09-14 15:35
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	1	$56	56	0	+56	No	+$0	08-05 13:06
will ethereum reach 2800 in august 2026	1	$56	56	0	+56	No	+$0	08-31 22:23
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	1	$55	55	0	+55	No	+$0	08-16 01:27
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 14 2026	1	$54	55	0	+55	No	+$1	08-13 23:46
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	1	$54	55	0	+55	Yes	+$0	08-09 14:53
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	1	$50	51	0	+51	No	+$1	08-21 01:57
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch?	1	$49	50	0	+50	Yes	+$0	06-27 01:58
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $280 in August?	1	$49	49	0	+49	No	+$0	08-27 15:43
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	1	$43	52	0	+52	Yes	-$43	10-15 07:11
will solana dip to 70 in march 2026	1	$41	41	0	+41	No	+$0	03-31 07:30
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	1	$40	40	0	+40	Yes	+$0	05-30 10:50
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?	1	$34	34	0	+34	No	+$0	06-30 10:50
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	1	$34	35	0	+35	No	+$1	10-29 17:44
GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?	1	$32	32	0	+32	Yes	+$0	07-31 09:35
Will Poland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	1	$26	26	0	+26	No	+$0	05-13 04:41
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April?	1	$24	24	0	+24	No	+$0	04-29 10:04
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	1	$23	23	0	+23	No	+$0	05-28 16:37
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in October?	2	$20	10	10	+0	No	+$0	10-17 15:57
will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt5t by june 30	1	$18	18	0	+18	No	+$0	06-28 17:32
googl above 280 on february 27 2026	1	$16	16	0	+16	Yes	+$0	02-24 19:35
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	2	$14	7	7	+0	No	+$0	10-05 12:10
msft above 480 on february 27 2026	1	$8	8	0	+8	No	+$0	02-21 06:15
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May?	1	$7	7	0	+7	No	+$0	05-31 21:10

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 17:44:49	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	35	97¢	$34	0x746a10…
10-20 22:13:03	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	19	17¢	$3	0x23def3…
10-17 15:57:51	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in October?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xc4f0bb…
10-15 07:11:58	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	52	83¢	$43	0xec586f…
10-05 21:47:01	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in October?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x4f96cf…
10-05 12:10:56	Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x5c2020…
10-05 07:44:53	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0x0650fa…
10-01 00:14:12	us x iran diplomatic meeting by march 31 2027 20260922	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0xeb14e7…
09-27 08:39:24	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	BUY	50	99¢	$49	0xff2e87…
09-27 03:12:26	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in September?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xbc0ab3…
09-25 07:51:56	Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x15a4fa…
09-21 20:34:00	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?	No	BUY	62	100¢	$62	0xcf2d05…
09-16 00:02:51	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	Yes	BUY	62	100¢	$61	0x0abad5…
09-14 15:35:27	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	No	BUY	61	100¢	$61	0x1dec77…
09-10 00:54:16	LAPTOP FDV above $10M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	61	100¢	$60	0x8bfff7…
09-09 16:04:28	LAPTOP FDV above $10M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	61	98¢	$60	0x928cfd…
09-07 16:55:40	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x355294…
09-07 16:53:27	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	BUY	36	100¢	$36	0xbef49b…
09-07 08:15:28	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0xbc7dcf…
09-07 08:03:57	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	SELL	38	100¢	$38	0xb41cd1…
09-04 10:32:22	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 7 2026	No	BUY	60	99¢	$59	0xaef209…
08-31 22:23:09	will ethereum reach 2800 in august 2026	No	BUY	56	100¢	$56	0xb8b3ec…
08-27 15:43:07	Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $280 in August?	No	BUY	49	100¢	$49	0x84350d…
08-26 16:38:12	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	50	96¢	$48	0x71f971…
08-24 03:44:43	Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x822428…
08-23 21:41:46	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0x6c89c9…
08-23 06:43:58	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x72babc…
08-21 01:57:10	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	No	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0x8f7c5e…
08-19 15:49:36	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	0¢	$1	0xcfbc58…
08-18 11:36:30	will ethereum dip to 1200 in august 2026	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x7eab6c…
08-17 17:44:28	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	106	0¢	$0	0x5df5f7…
08-17 17:42:22	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	0¢	$0	0xb34e55…
08-17 17:41:22	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	0¢	$0	0xa86bee…
08-17 17:41:13	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	0¢	$0	0xe9cd52…
08-17 17:27:21	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0xade3f5…
08-17 17:23:34	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	47	0¢	$0	0x3aaedd…
08-17 16:20:04	Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x00826f…
08-16 01:27:07	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	BUY	55	100¢	$55	0xb53303…
08-13 23:46:46	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 14 2026	No	BUY	55	99¢	$54	0x60b574…
08-09 14:53:54	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	Yes	BUY	55	100¢	$54	0x4f33fc…
08-07 20:49:33	Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xcd6090…
08-05 13:06:15	Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	No	BUY	56	100¢	$56	0x5bf03f…
08-05 02:08:39	will wti reach 140 in august 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x68ff2a…
07-31 09:35:32	GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0x8fb554…
07-30 15:00:20	will bitcoin reach 70k in july 2026	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x72e073…
07-30 09:20:57	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x0bbdd4…
07-26 16:04:34	Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xcca05f…
07-23 02:45:07	Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x2644a8…
07-22 22:54:39	will ethereum dip to 1100 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xe2f428…
07-21 23:12:45	will xagusd dip to 48 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x53fe41…
07-21 07:16:57	will bitcoin reach 80k in july 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x41dc83…
07-21 05:57:36	will xagusd dip to 44 in july 2026	No	BUY	3	100¢	$2	0xab3507…
07-17 18:03:54	will xauusd reach 4600 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x448edb…
07-04 18:38:22	Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x135524…
07-03 03:55:46	gpt 5pt6 released by july 3 2026	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x41aa38…
06-30 10:50:23	Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0x5befb5…
06-28 17:32:16	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt5t by june 30	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x0fc13d…
06-27 10:57:23	Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x692998…
06-27 01:58:04	Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	50	99¢	$49	0xef45e5…
06-26 19:34:49	will ng reach 4 20 in june 2026	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xe97559…
06-07 12:42:46	Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x26d16c…
05-31 21:10:03	Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x9fe5ac…
05-30 10:50:52	Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x153574…
05-28 16:37:09	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x8c4b8e…
05-22 08:41:41	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xec4c4d…
05-13 04:41:36	Will Poland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0xff615d…
05-12 13:22:23	Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x66c878…
05-11 00:18:17	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $290 in May?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xd659cf…
05-10 23:17:11	Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x86bfd7…
05-10 16:58:53	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x9a171b…
05-10 07:04:37	Will Alibaba have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x20672d…
05-09 21:43:11	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xb1fc92…
05-09 21:36:01	Will Alibaba have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x79e81f…
05-09 06:59:44	Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x04e12c…
05-09 05:27:51	Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xdbb116…
05-08 19:25:23	Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xe2c4a6…
05-05 12:38:14	Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x545ad6…
04-29 10:04:28	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xe28533…
04-27 02:14:54	Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $140 end of April?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xde3b45…
04-23 16:52:08	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$3	0x96b891…
04-22 08:49:08	Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x7c6c4b…
04-21 12:46:02	Will Solana dip to $40 in April?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xb0b5ac…
04-19 23:34:16	Will Z.ai have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x0dd5e4…
04-19 13:36:48	Will the Bank of Canada announce a 25 bps decrease at the April meeting?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xa721cc…
04-18 18:28:34	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in April?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x7d8756…
04-18 03:58:24	Will Solana dip to $20 in April?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xea2cfb…
04-17 20:29:10	Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$2	0x74948d…
04-16 18:11:38	Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xca387d…
04-15 20:05:34	Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in April?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xf82889…
04-15 09:36:50	Will Google (GOOGL) close above $220 end of April?	Yes	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xae9ec2…
04-14 12:32:43	Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $150 end of April?	Yes	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xabcaf5…
04-13 21:19:49	Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in April?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xe8ee5c…
04-06 06:07:37	Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xbe860a…
03-31 07:30:55	will solana dip to 70 in march 2026	No	BUY	41	100¢	$41	0xbaa43a…
03-26 10:52:29	will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xe9cfeb…
03-25 20:05:45	will bitcoin dip to 45k in march 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x079296…
03-24 21:20:55	will hyperliquid dip to 20 in march	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x6a574b…
03-23 18:15:35	will xrp dip to 0pt2 in march 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xfc47d9…
03-18 12:33:47	msft above 315 on march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$1	0x08966d…
03-17 16:07:45	will xai have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 497	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xf82a88…