Ripe-Loss-Advancement — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$778

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

22.0%

Resolved

2,527

Trades

4,781

lifetime

Volume

$13.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-03

last 10-30 19:10

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 72 days

Categories

Other

79% 27% -$595

Politics

10% 11% -$72

Tech

7% 0% -$39

Crypto

4% 23% -$40

Sports

1% 0% -$31

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	73	$500	574	574	+0	Yes	-$12	06-20 13:16
Will Jack Grealish join Everton?	16	$356	330	330	+0	Yes	-$63	06-19 11:50
will spy dip to 750 by june 1 2026	11	$314	481	181	+300	Yes	-$57	06-05 02:36
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?	28	$307	349	349	+0	No	-$3	06-28 07:46
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	7	$263	300	300	+0	Yes	-$7	06-22 21:54
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-11 14:15 UTC	59	$182	388	0	+388	Up	-$10	06-11 14:27
will xauusd dip to 4300 in june 2026	16	$180	232	164	+68	Yes	-$7	06-07 11:41
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	10	$175	190	190	+0	Yes	-$2	06-21 20:38
wti closes above 74 on june 23 2026	12	$168	189	189	+0	No	-$14	06-23 03:32
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 6?	4	$157	217	217	+0	Yes	+$151	05-06 07:03
spy closes above 750 on june 5 2026	2	$154	100	100	+0	No	-$8	06-05 00:03
will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	37	$145	153	153	+0	Yes	-$15	06-19 15:53
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	19	$136	160	160	+0	No	+$0	06-19 13:42
will xagusd reach 82 in june 2026	6	$129	100	100	+0	No	-$2	06-05 06:25
Will Carlos Vila Nova win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections?	10	$123	120	120	+0	Yes	-$16	06-24 09:06
will wti crude oil wti hit high 105 in june	3	$121	100	100	+0	No	-$7	06-07 18:40
will spy reach 770 in june 2026	2	$119	100	100	+0	No	-$1	06-05 02:01
wti closes above 92 on june 5 2026	3	$117	100	100	+0	No	-$5	06-05 08:33
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on May 8?	4	$111	106	106	+0	Yes	+$100	05-08 10:10
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	7	$106	100	100	+0	Yes	$0	06-22 19:36
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?	12	$103	175	175	+0	Yes	-$4	06-20 18:27
will xagusd dip to 64 in june 2026	3	$101	81	81	+0	Yes	-$6	06-07 18:17
will xagusd dip to 72 by june 1 2026	4	$86	100	100	+0	Yes	-$1	06-04 10:38
Will MrBeast's next video get between 55 and 55.5 million views on day 6?	10	$77	100	100	+0	Yes	-$30	06-19 09:04
Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the August meeting?	4	$73	60	60	+0	No	-$7	06-24 13:44
will ng reach 3 40 in june 2026	4	$69	108	8	+100	No	-$4	06-04 16:22
will xagusd dip to 66 in june 2026	4	$67	58	44	+14	Yes	-$8	06-05 04:42
starmer out by june 24 2026	2	$66	43	43	+0	Yes	+$0	06-22 05:15
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on May 29?	6	$64	54	54	+0	Yes	+$44	05-29 21:21
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-11 15:00 UTC	29	$63	130	0	+130	Down	+$2	06-11 15:12

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 19:10:46	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	2	36¢	$1	0x3ce103…
10-30 15:14:27	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C on November 1?	Yes	SELL	10	32¢	$3	0x03b3e2…
10-30 15:14:19	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C on November 1?	Yes	SELL	5	32¢	$2	0xdad369…
10-30 15:14:04	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C on November 1?	Yes	SELL	5	33¢	$2	0x4923c0…
10-30 15:11:49	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0x1e9a87…
10-30 14:11:22	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 13°C on November 1?	Yes	SELL	20	34¢	$7	0x154773…
10-30 14:11:10	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 13°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	20	38¢	$8	0x3228bf…
10-30 11:03:39	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 8°C on November 1?	No	SELL	20	39¢	$8	0x4a2bfd…
10-30 11:03:30	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 8°C on November 1?	No	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0x93cadf…
10-28 16:52:16	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	20	21¢	$4	0xc96db1…
10-28 14:09:05	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	9	48¢	$4	0xbddeee…
10-28 14:08:50	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	11	48¢	$5	0x474f6f…
07-19 19:35:34	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on July 20?	No	BUY	100	60¢	$60	0xc26504…
07-14 05:09:28	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 14?	No	BUY	24	26¢	$6	0x237ca8…
07-14 05:07:29	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 14?	No	BUY	26	26¢	$7	0xc0db93…
07-14 04:39:55	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 14?	No	BUY	26	24¢	$6	0xaa6d10…
07-14 04:26:58	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 14?	No	BUY	1	24¢	$0	0xafc4d2…
07-14 04:12:05	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 14?	No	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0x7402b9…
07-14 04:11:59	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 14?	No	BUY	12	24¢	$3	0x401e48…
07-14 03:27:32	Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 20°C or below on July 14?	No	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0x2c0733…
07-13 20:32:50	Will there be no next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026?	Yes	SELL	36	44¢	$16	0x244034…
07-13 20:32:43	Will Daniel Wong win the 2026 Fort Bend County Judge election?	No	SELL	20	80¢	$16	0x78bb49…
06-28 11:07:32	Will Bending Spoons' market cap be less than $16B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0xe7399e…
06-28 09:20:34	Will Bending Spoons' market cap be less than $16B at market close on IPO day?	No	BUY	20	55¢	$11	0xa36637…
06-28 09:11:53	Will Daniel Wong win the 2026 Fort Bend County Judge election?	No	BUY	20	52¢	$10	0x22676d…
06-28 08:48:10	Will there be no next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026?	Yes	BUY	36	50¢	$18	0x2b0376…
06-28 08:27:46	Will Trinity Tatum win Love Island USA Season 8?	Yes	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0xe20790…
06-28 07:46:25	Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	6¢	$0	0x8c5966…
06-28 07:46:17	Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?	No	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0xcbdea8…
06-28 04:45:49	Will ITG's market cap be between $2.1B and $2.7B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	SELL	15	37¢	$6	0x31525a…
06-28 04:45:40	Will ITG's market cap be between $2.1B and $2.7B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	SELL	5	38¢	$2	0x6b3486…
06-28 04:45:14	Will ITG's market cap be between $2.1B and $2.7B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	15	39¢	$6	0x578d9c…
06-28 04:44:55	Will ITG's market cap be between $2.1B and $2.7B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0xa53a97…
06-28 01:02:47	Hotstuff FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	10	19¢	$2	0xcb6e14…
06-28 01:02:38	Hotstuff FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	8	30¢	$2	0x523911…
06-28 01:02:28	Hotstuff FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	6	31¢	$2	0x4c021a…
06-28 00:57:31	Hotstuff FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	12	32¢	$4	0x76d615…
06-28 00:57:22	Hotstuff FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	14	35¢	$5	0x9d85e1…
06-28 00:57:16	Hotstuff FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	14	31¢	$4	0x69ca8d…
06-27 07:00:28	Will Alex Villanueva win the 2026 Los Angeles County Sheriff election?	No	SELL	20	17¢	$3	0x7c3844…
06-27 07:00:23	Will Alex Villanueva win the 2026 Los Angeles County Sheriff election?	No	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x136bae…
06-27 05:59:34	Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1?	Yes	SELL	3	53¢	$2	0x44ba02…
06-27 05:59:22	Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1?	Yes	SELL	17	54¢	$9	0xe89bbf…
06-27 05:59:13	Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1?	Yes	BUY	20	54¢	$11	0x47148c…
06-27 05:50:37	Will Phil Weiser win the Colorado Governor Democratic Primary by 5–10%?	Yes	SELL	4	36¢	$2	0xc95816…
06-27 05:50:28	Will Phil Weiser win the Colorado Governor Democratic Primary by 5–10%?	Yes	BUY	4	36¢	$2	0xfda263…
06-27 05:18:28	Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	16¢	$3	0x2b0348…
06-27 05:18:26	Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0xa33d68…
06-27 04:41:19	will iran reconstruction funding be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201638	Yes	SELL	20	49¢	$10	0x881f68…
06-27 04:41:17	will iran reconstruction funding be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201638	Yes	BUY	20	54¢	$11	0x779b8f…
06-27 04:30:50	Will Craig Greenberg win the 2026 Louisville mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	20	69¢	$14	0x886974…
06-27 04:30:26	Will Craig Greenberg win the 2026 Louisville mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	20	69¢	$14	0x0cc283…
06-27 02:49:50	United Airlines (UAL) Q2 consolidated passenger load factor 85%-86%?	Yes	SELL	17	33¢	$5	0xb94344…
06-27 02:49:41	United Airlines (UAL) Q2 consolidated passenger load factor 85%-86%?	Yes	SELL	3	34¢	$1	0xd768e4…
06-27 02:49:38	United Airlines (UAL) Q2 consolidated passenger load factor 85%-86%?	Yes	BUY	20	36¢	$7	0x9c7e44…
06-27 02:43:55	will iran reconstruction funding be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201638	No	SELL	6	42¢	$3	0xfb66f3…
06-27 02:43:46	will iran reconstruction funding be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201638	No	SELL	14	44¢	$6	0x9039dc…
06-27 02:43:02	will iran reconstruction funding be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201638	No	BUY	20	44¢	$9	0x5f2bd4…
06-27 02:27:37	will there be 3 trades in the first round of the 2026 nhl draft 20260624213348598	No	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0x2d3876…
06-27 02:27:26	will there be 3 trades in the first round of the 2026 nhl draft 20260624213348598	No	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0xe87a86…
06-27 02:04:34	will smith college exclude trans women in 2026 20260626143843566	Yes	SELL	20	19¢	$4	0x45024e…
06-27 02:04:25	will smith college exclude trans women in 2026 20260626143843566	Yes	BUY	20	31¢	$6	0x59989c…
06-27 01:40:29	Will James Graf win the 2026 Montgomery County Judge election?	Yes	SELL	10	41¢	$4	0x6a3ed1…
06-27 01:40:19	Will James Graf win the 2026 Montgomery County Judge election?	Yes	SELL	5	44¢	$2	0x3896d9…
06-27 01:40:07	Will James Graf win the 2026 Montgomery County Judge election?	Yes	SELL	5	46¢	$2	0xc93e27…
06-27 01:40:05	Will James Graf win the 2026 Montgomery County Judge election?	Yes	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0xbcc1ee…
06-27 00:08:58	Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $6.00 on June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	20	45¢	$9	0x55b383…
06-27 00:08:55	Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $6.00 on June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x99d8b6…
06-26 14:52:01	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	24¢	$12	0x84c288…
06-26 14:51:47	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	37¢	$18	0x8aa532…
06-26 13:15:57	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	11	43¢	$5	0x8614c1…
06-26 13:15:43	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	11	43¢	$5	0x3e3de0…
06-26 13:11:34	spy closes above 725 on june 26 2026	Yes	SELL	20	76¢	$15	0x0ef07f…
06-26 13:11:18	spy closes above 725 on june 26 2026	Yes	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0x5adbb0…
06-26 11:19:50	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by july 31	Yes	SELL	20	29¢	$6	0x1ae357…
06-26 11:19:43	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by july 31	Yes	BUY	20	32¢	$6	0x4215c2…
06-26 11:13:01	spy closes above 725 on june 26 2026	Yes	SELL	20	78¢	$16	0xa8ce9d…
06-26 11:12:08	spy closes above 725 on june 26 2026	Yes	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0x3041df…
06-26 09:16:02	Will National Liberation Front (FLN) win the most seats in the 2026 Algerian parliamentary elections?	No	SELL	15	12¢	$2	0x4834e5…
06-26 09:15:52	Will National Liberation Front (FLN) win the most seats in the 2026 Algerian parliamentary elections?	No	SELL	5	14¢	$1	0x633f24…
06-26 09:15:46	Will National Liberation Front (FLN) win the most seats in the 2026 Algerian parliamentary elections?	No	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0xc427d9…
06-26 09:08:04	Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1?	Yes	SELL	20	56¢	$11	0x763979…
06-26 09:07:55	Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	20	55¢	$11	0x83e0e9…
06-26 06:40:52	will carson carels be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 nhl draft 20260624213346478	Yes	SELL	20	28¢	$6	0xa84418…
06-26 06:40:43	will carson carels be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 nhl draft 20260624213346478	No	SELL	20	64¢	$13	0xbe1281…
06-26 06:40:43	will carson carels be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 nhl draft 20260624213346478	Yes	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0x0da197…
06-26 05:45:47	iran successfully targets shipping by june 30 20260625215135369	Yes	SELL	20	21¢	$4	0x3158c3…
06-26 05:45:01	iran successfully targets shipping by june 30 20260625215135369	Yes	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0xbc681c…
06-26 05:23:58	will carson carels be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 nhl draft 20260624213346478	Yes	SELL	20	44¢	$9	0xf34db0…
06-26 05:23:58	will carson carels be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 nhl draft 20260624213346478	No	BUY	20	58¢	$12	0x0e9290…
06-26 04:52:55	will caleb malhotra be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 nhl draft 20260624213346477	Yes	SELL	20	48¢	$10	0x098760…
06-26 04:52:50	will caleb malhotra be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 nhl draft 20260624213346477	Yes	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0xd7d2c3…
06-26 04:46:07	will chase reid be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 nhl draft 20260624213346476	Yes	SELL	20	49¢	$10	0xfccefc…
06-26 04:45:41	will chase reid be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 nhl draft 20260624213346476	Yes	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0xc180ab…
06-26 04:34:28	will adam novotny be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 nhl draft 20260624213347248	Yes	SELL	20	2¢	$0	0x209333…
06-26 04:34:17	will adam novotny be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 nhl draft 20260624213347248	Yes	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0x1be047…
06-26 04:32:52	iran successfully targets shipping by july 7 20260625215135370	Yes	SELL	8	27¢	$2	0x0f9a38…
06-26 04:32:43	iran successfully targets shipping by july 7 20260625215135370	Yes	SELL	12	38¢	$5	0xf6f3ac…
06-26 04:32:01	iran successfully targets shipping by july 7 20260625215135370	Yes	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0xe9d4cc…
06-26 04:19:11	will alberts smits be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 nhl draft 20260624213346481	Yes	SELL	20	43¢	$9	0x121892…