Hilarious-Lightning — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$15

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

48.9%

Resolved

Trades

208

lifetime

Volume

$911

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-21

last 05-22 06:22

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Other

52% — —

Politics

39% 50% $-14

Tech

9% — —

Crypto

0% 0% $-1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

26 active days in 12wk • peak 38 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (4) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	11	$88	63	63	-0	open	—	05-22 06:22
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	16	$83	71	71	+0	open	—	05-09 16:56
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	10	$55	49	48	+1	open	—	04-24 22:08
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?	11	$51	306	303	+3	open	—	04-23 18:08
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	4	$50	31	31	+0	open	—	04-23 22:16
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	10	$35	33	33	+0	open	—	05-22 06:22
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	6	$33	61	59	+2	open	—	04-24 07:48
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	7	$32	87	75	+12	open	—	05-14 11:00
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	4	$29	31	31	+0	open	—	05-20 22:59
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	6	$25	157	157	+0	open	—	04-27 11:03
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	3	$25	15	15	+0	open	—	04-23 08:43
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	2	$20	12	12	+0	open	—	05-05 04:39
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	4	$16	61	61	+0	Yes	+$0	05-03 20:42
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	3	$16	12	6	+5	Yes	$-5	05-05 13:45
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	5	$16	138	138	+0	open	—	04-24 18:01
Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?	1	$15	210	0	+210	open	—	04-24 22:12
Will "Russia" be said on ICEMAN?	2	$13	9	8	+0	open	—	05-04 15:08
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April?	4	$13	149	146	+3	open	—	04-25 13:21
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April?	4	$12	236	231	+5	open	—	04-23 13:04
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	4	$12	53	53	+0	open	—	04-27 05:56
Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	2	$12	7	7	+0	open	—	05-17 09:26
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?	2	$11	135	130	+5	open	—	04-25 17:21
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	2	$11	93	93	+0	open	—	05-11 17:52
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?	4	$11	12	12	+0	open	—	04-24 13:13
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April?	4	$10	68	66	+2	open	—	04-27 12:28
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	2	$10	10	10	+0	open	—	05-04 00:01
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	1	$10	20	0	+20	Yes	$-10	04-24 07:52
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	2	$10	6	6	+0	open	—	05-06 18:32
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	5	$10	41	41	+0	open	—	04-25 03:18
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?	2	$10	5	5	+0	No	+$0	05-09 09:49

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-22 06:22:19	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	5¢	$0	0xac9c88…
05-22 06:22:16	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	76¢	$0	0x6088a3…
05-22 06:22:09	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	7	81¢	$6	0xe767c1…
05-20 22:59:30	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	SELL	8	62¢	$5	0xe5dbcb…
05-20 17:22:50	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0x1ebacd…
05-18 17:51:30	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	7	93¢	$7	0xcf73db…
05-18 17:46:11	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	10¢	$1	0x861509…
05-18 10:46:34	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	6	92¢	$5	0x1b31df…
05-18 09:46:20	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	15¢	$1	0x4997af…
05-18 01:46:55	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	71¢	$4	0x8d537d…
05-17 09:26:05	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	No	SELL	7	91¢	$6	0x776299…
05-17 01:27:45	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x9b82fd…
05-17 01:27:45	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	No	BUY	7	84¢	$6	0x4eeae6…
05-14 16:56:39	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0xe7e60b…
05-14 11:00:05	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	6¢	$1	0x33bef9…
05-14 02:46:56	Epstein suicide note released by May 31?	Yes	SELL	5	8¢	$0	0x246efc…
05-14 02:44:45	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	60	4¢	$3	0xe5372b…
05-13 18:40:40	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	4¢	$3	0x6c5592…
05-13 18:36:35	Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?	No	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0xb63acf…
05-12 09:28:44	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	5	88¢	$5	0xe95fa2…
05-12 01:44:24	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0x59ba83…
05-11 17:52:48	Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	93	5¢	$5	0xd9d305…
05-11 01:24:31	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	9	92¢	$9	0x8a8a1a…
05-10 17:22:17	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	9	89¢	$8	0x965380…
05-10 12:00:19	Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	93	7¢	$6	0x71c8fd…
05-10 09:11:40	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	72¢	$4	0x354901…
05-09 17:08:19	Epstein suicide note released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	2	17¢	$0	0xa727bf…
05-09 16:59:12	Epstein suicide note released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	3	17¢	$1	0x667d4a…
05-09 16:56:50	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	6	79¢	$5	0xc7fe9f…
05-09 09:49:57	US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?	No	SELL	5	92¢	$5	0xb03def…
05-07 19:12:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x6bf964…
05-07 08:41:56	Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0x1bf5b3…
05-07 02:29:34	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	SELL	5	77¢	$4	0xe61297…
05-06 18:32:31	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	6	86¢	$5	0xabfdb1…
05-06 17:56:02	US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?	No	BUY	5	86¢	$5	0x15abe5…
05-06 17:29:29	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x8a8f23…
05-06 17:22:49	Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?	No	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0xa3d435…
05-06 17:22:47	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0x4f66b5…
05-06 10:48:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	6	67¢	$4	0x2fc1d7…
05-06 09:55:20	Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	SELL	6	62¢	$4	0x953b7a…
05-06 07:57:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	5	82¢	$4	0x7414c3…
05-06 07:35:06	Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0xb681b3…
05-06 06:41:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0x816dad…
05-06 05:31:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	5	83¢	$4	0xe2a930…
05-06 00:10:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0x4ed1c9…
05-05 18:04:50	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	5	84¢	$4	0xca6326…
05-05 17:15:40	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	0	72¢	$0	0x90b2d0…
05-05 17:04:12	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	72¢	$4	0x30f966…
05-05 16:58:10	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0xdbb6a5…
05-05 13:45:26	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	90¢	$5	0x0a6d19…
05-05 13:13:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0xfacfa2…
05-05 13:13:44	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	88¢	$5	0x1485b4…
05-05 04:55:22	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	7	87¢	$6	0xf5f902…
05-05 04:39:50	Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	SELL	12	81¢	$10	0x527f31…
05-05 02:33:08	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	13	69¢	$9	0xc38ffc…
05-05 02:16:54	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	13	70¢	$9	0x515598…
05-05 02:16:54	Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	12	82¢	$10	0x43bf33…
05-05 02:14:24	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	SELL	23	42¢	$10	0xc339ca…
05-05 00:12:38	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	23	44¢	$10	0x697e44…
05-04 20:49:28	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	6	89¢	$6	0xd3bd69…
05-04 19:48:16	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	31¢	$3	0x4e8354…
05-04 18:12:04	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	31¢	$3	0x6f51ec…
05-04 18:08:08	Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0xc1475b…
05-04 17:56:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	5	83¢	$4	0x3ec672…
05-04 17:12:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	SELL	40	0¢	$0	0x4af823…
05-04 16:40:54	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	31¢	$2	0xc9a9a9…
05-04 15:08:56	Will "Russia" be said on ICEMAN?	No	SELL	8	78¢	$7	0xb1a138…
05-04 10:19:46	Will "Russia" be said on ICEMAN?	No	BUY	9	79¢	$7	0x05fdfe…
05-04 04:53:42	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?	No	BUY	24	7¢	$2	0xe8b4c1…
05-04 00:01:44	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	22¢	$2	0x02a628…
05-03 20:42:16	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	6	94¢	$6	0x72aa2f…
05-02 07:22:52	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	77¢	$8	0x47fad5…
05-02 06:44:14	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	6	91¢	$6	0xf05f75…
05-02 06:41:24	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	SELL	5	92¢	$5	0x6dff99…
05-01 16:40:42	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	94¢	$6	0x348970…
05-01 12:30:36	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	No	BUY	17	45¢	$8	0xf0bf0c…
05-01 12:30:30	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0x50e57c…
05-01 12:30:28	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	No	BUY	8	69¢	$6	0x70b039…
05-01 12:30:28	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	7	80¢	$5	0x5b5783…
05-01 02:34:22	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x1f2afb…
04-30 18:55:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0xef0172…
04-30 07:12:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	SELL	25	26¢	$6	0xd11522…
04-28 00:53:30	Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0xee8323…
04-27 17:41:54	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	54	4¢	$2	0x06961f…
04-27 17:13:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	25	39¢	$10	0x0a970a…
04-27 13:13:38	Will Ken McFeeters win the 2026 Alabama Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	SELL	47	1¢	$1	0x6e32ff…
04-27 12:28:14	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April?	Yes	SELL	46	1¢	$1	0x1b05d6…
04-27 11:08:14	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	Yes	SELL	23	4¢	$1	0x601554…
04-27 11:07:44	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	38	70¢	$27	0x1f425b…
04-27 11:03:38	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	SELL	157	6¢	$9	0xadbca7…
04-27 08:20:26	Will "Gachiakuta" win Best New Series at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Awards?	No	BUY	10	68¢	$7	0x104b97…
04-27 08:18:26	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	71	10¢	$7	0x687705…
04-27 08:16:30	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	14	10¢	$1	0xcf2690…
04-27 08:16:28	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	14	10¢	$1	0x769784…
04-27 08:16:24	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	14	10¢	$1	0xf87b91…
04-27 08:16:24	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	43	10¢	$4	0xebbec3…
04-27 05:56:42	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	30	5¢	$2	0x260735…
04-26 18:40:10	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	SELL	13	8¢	$1	0x26fb19…
04-25 17:21:58	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?	Yes	SELL	130	2¢	$3	0x051362…
04-25 16:24:02	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April?	Yes	BUY	48	5¢	$2	0x9fe585…