Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?
open
Total volume
$392
$13,842 in 24h
Trades
34
Unique wallets
12
Liquidity
$31,579
Latest YES mid
96¢
Latest NO mid
4¢
End date
2026-05-16
First seen
2026-05-04
last 05-05 19:06
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🦐 Shrimp | 12 | $305 | $18 | +$286 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below median | 1 | $5 | — | +$5 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 1 | $145 | — | +$145 |
| unranked | 10 | $155 | $18 | +$137 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frugal-Custody 0x92dc…5503 | No | +307 | $15 | $15 | 1 | 05-05 12:45 |
| (anonymous) 0xcec4…9258 | Yes | +135 | $130 | $159 | 4 | 05-05 07:26 |
| Poor-Menopause 0xc781…59d7 | Yes | +92 | $88 | $88 | 1 | 05-05 00:49 |
| Wavy-Parsley 0x101e…d4da | No | +65 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 05-05 02:35 |
| Impractical-Chemistry 0x034a…d14b | No | +22 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-04 22:09 |
| (anonymous) 0xe152…586d | Yes | +13 | $12 | $12 | 8 | 05-05 19:06 |
| (anonymous) 0xaa06…1e0f | Yes | +5 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 05-05 12:45 |
| Animated-Chairman 0x04f9…eac7 | Yes | +5 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 05-05 05:15 |
| (anonymous) 0x3890…7c02 | Yes | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-05 12:45 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-05 19:06:50 | Downright-Carriage 0x5cec…79c4 | No | SELL | 17 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xfbcd12… |
| 05-05 19:06:46 | (anonymous) 0xe152…586d | Yes | BUY | 2 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x223c31… |
| 05-05 19:06:46 | (anonymous) 0xe152…586d | Yes | BUY | 2 | 95¢ | $1 | 0xa4148e… |
| 05-05 19:06:44 | (anonymous) 0xe152…586d | Yes | BUY | 2 | 95¢ | $1 | 0xf6a39b… |
| 05-05 19:06:42 | (anonymous) 0xe152…586d | Yes | BUY | 2 | 95¢ | $1 | 0xf3c04c… |
| 05-05 19:06:42 | (anonymous) 0xe152…586d | Yes | BUY | 2 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x11e868… |
| 05-05 19:06:40 | (anonymous) 0xe152…586d | Yes | BUY | 2 | 95¢ | $1 | 0xb1ee12… |
| 05-05 19:06:40 | (anonymous) 0xe152…586d | Yes | BUY | 2 | 95¢ | $1 | 0xebb3e8… |
| 05-05 19:06:38 | (anonymous) 0x72e9…6743 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 95¢ | $5 | 0xf2307c… |
| 05-05 19:06:38 | (anonymous) 0x72e9…6743 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 95¢ | $5 | 0xd3d639… |
| 05-05 19:06:36 | (anonymous) 0x72e9…6743 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 95¢ | $5 | 0xe83f48… |
| 05-05 19:06:36 | Sympathetic-Chef 0x6ae4…d4ce | Yes | SELL | 25 | 95¢ | $24 | 0x24aa62… |
| 05-05 19:06:36 | (anonymous) 0x72e9…6743 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 95¢ | $5 | 0x3c880f… |
| 05-05 19:06:36 | (anonymous) 0x72e9…6743 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 95¢ | $5 | 0x127e23… |
| 05-05 19:06:36 | (anonymous) 0x72e9…6743 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 95¢ | $5 | 0xebe084… |
| 05-05 19:06:36 | (anonymous) 0x72e9…6743 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 95¢ | $5 | 0xdedb8e… |
| 05-05 19:06:36 | (anonymous) 0x72e9…6743 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 95¢ | $5 | 0xeae122… |
| 05-05 19:06:36 | (anonymous) 0x72e9…6743 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 95¢ | $5 | 0x996574… |
| 05-05 19:06:36 | (anonymous) 0x72e9…6743 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 95¢ | $5 | 0xc7d7fc… |
| 05-05 19:06:36 | (anonymous) 0x72e9…6743 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 95¢ | $5 | 0x89be09… |
| 05-05 19:06:36 | (anonymous) 0x72e9…6743 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 95¢ | $5 | 0xe97145… |
| 05-05 12:45:26 | (anonymous) 0x3890…7c02 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x86165e… |
| 05-05 12:45:24 | (anonymous) 0xe152…586d | Yes | BUY | 2 | 95¢ | $1 | 0xd28a2c… |
| 05-05 12:45:24 | (anonymous) 0xaa06…1e0f | Yes | BUY | 5 | 95¢ | $5 | 0xc3d49e… |
| 05-05 12:45:20 | Frugal-Custody 0x92dc…5503 | No | BUY | 307 | 5¢ | $15 | 0xf76937… |
| 05-05 07:26:10 | (anonymous) 0xcec4…9258 | Yes | BUY | 55 | 96¢ | $53 | 0x8b9dbd… |
| 05-05 07:15:10 | (anonymous) 0xcec4…9258 | Yes | BUY | 50 | 96¢ | $48 | 0x388f35… |
| 05-05 06:35:40 | (anonymous) 0xcec4…9258 | Yes | BUY | 45 | 96¢ | $43 | 0xb7ce4d… |
| 05-05 05:15:02 | Animated-Chairman 0x04f9…eac7 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x0c630e… |
| 05-05 02:35:12 | Wavy-Parsley 0x101e…d4da | No | BUY | 65 | 4¢ | $2 | 0x9b6715… |
| 05-05 00:49:34 | Poor-Menopause 0xc781…59d7 | Yes | BUY | 92 | 96¢ | $88 | 0xf98e1c… |
| 05-04 22:09:52 | Impractical-Chemistry 0x034a…d14b | No | BUY | 22 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x7fe145… |
| 05-04 20:54:48 | Sympathetic-Chef 0x6ae4…d4ce | Yes | BUY | 20 | 96¢ | $20 | 0xfa3277… |
| 05-04 20:01:22 | (anonymous) 0xcec4…9258 | Yes | SELL | 15 | 95¢ | $14 | 0xa6c298… |