Realized P&L
-$2.35K
Unrealized P&L
+$1.11K
Hit rate
86.2%
Resolved
17
Trades
16,604
lifetime
Volume
$10.4M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$629
Open exposure
$59.6K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 06-09 18:40
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 8 days
Categories
Other
50%
100%
+$367
Politics
44%
88%
$-1,779
Sports
3%
83%
$-934
Tech
2%
—
—
Crypto
1%
—
—
Pop-Culture
0%
—
—
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk
• peak 213 trades/day
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? | No | -19,365 | $-19,296 | 99¢ | $-19181 | +$115 | 06-08 02:43 | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | +8,549 | $8,316 | 98¢ | $8.4K | +$92 | 06-09 21:48 | |
| Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting? | No | +6,185 | $5,900 | 99¢ | $6.1K | +$241 | 06-07 12:32 | |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | No | -5,717 | $-5,662 | 99¢ | $-5668 | $-6 | 06-09 00:34 | |
| New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? | No | +3,079 | $2,864 | 94¢ | $2.9K | +$15 | 06-05 18:59 | |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | No | +2,240 | $2,110 | 96¢ | $2.1K | +$32 | 06-08 02:46 | |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | No | +2,011 | $1,605 | 97¢ | $1.9K | +$343 | 06-09 21:09 | |
| Will Donald Trump be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? | No | +1,481 | $1,448 | 98¢ | $1.5K | +$10 | 06-09 23:45 | |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? | No | +1,125 | $1,013 | 94¢ | $1.1K | +$51 | 05-29 10:39 | |
| Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? | Yes | +1,000 | $947 | 99¢ | $986 | +$38 | 06-06 21:32 | |
| Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? | No | -1,000 | $-946 | 95¢ | $-952 | $-6 | 06-06 08:55 | |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | No | +1,000 | $928 | 95¢ | $945 | +$17 | 06-08 21:48 | |
| Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announce a presidential run before 2027? | No | +1,000 | $941 | 91¢ | $915 | $-26 | 06-01 06:18 | |
| Will Hunter Biden announce a Presidential run before 2027? | No | +1,000 | $871 | 89¢ | $893 | +$22 | 06-05 19:39 | |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | +1,000 | $840 | 86¢ | $865 | +$25 | 06-02 17:11 | |
| Will GameStop acquire eBay? | No | +1,000 | $840 | 84¢ | $845 | +$5 | 05-30 07:33 | |
| Will Jay-Z be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? | No | +765 | $750 | 99¢ | $758 | +$8 | 06-06 06:33 | |
| Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms? | No | +600 | $509 | 95¢ | $573 | +$64 | 06-04 01:03 | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | +643 | $553 | 88¢ | $563 | +$10 | 06-01 03:08 | |
| Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? | No | +600 | $547 | 94¢ | $561 | +$15 | 06-08 10:15 | |
| Will Citigroup fail by June 30, 2026? | No | -498 | $-495 | 99¢ | $-495 | +$0 | 06-04 20:11 | |
| Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? | No | -438 | $-388 | 86¢ | $-377 | +$10 | 06-02 05:04 | |
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? | No | +346 | $336 | 99¢ | $341 | +$6 | 05-30 13:44 | |
| Taylor Swift pregnant before marriage? | No | -148 | $-145 | 98¢ | $-145 | $-0 | 06-01 22:16 | |
| Tucker Carlson federally charged? | No | +132 | $128 | 97¢ | $129 | +$0 | 06-09 16:40 | |
| Yoon out of custody before 2027? | No | +141 | $120 | 88¢ | $124 | +$4 | 06-09 05:22 | |
| New "Stranger Things" episode released by June 30? | No | +119 | $117 | 99¢ | $118 | +$1 | 06-02 22:32 | |
| EU dissolves before 2027? | No | -69 | $-67 | 97¢ | $-67 | +$0 | 05-29 22:13 | |
| Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? | No | +42 | $20 | 99¢ | $41 | +$21 | 06-05 15:15 | |
| Will Trump pardon Elon Musk before 2027? | No | +20 | $19 | 95¢ | $19 | +$0 | 06-08 14:54 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28 | 236 | $269.5K | 155,778 | 133,778 | +22,000 | open | — | 03-03 23:19 |
| will eleven die in stranger things season 5 | 117 | $253.3K | 144,313 | 110,000 | +34,313 | open | — | 01-04 08:46 |
| netanyahu out by march 31 854 | 160 | $200.8K | 106,599 | 105,321 | +1,278 | open | — | 03-30 09:20 |
| new stranger things episode released by january 31 294 | 137 | $199.9K | 86,415 | 116,906 | -30,492 | open | — | 01-31 21:09 |
| will the iranian regime fall by march 31 | 282 | $175.1K | 88,612 | 97,795 | -9,183 | open | — | 03-31 01:24 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | 90 | $151.8K | 77,200 | 80,250 | -3,050 | open | — | 04-26 15:08 |
| us x iran ceasefire by march 31 | 236 | $147.3K | 131,176 | 28,000 | +103,176 | open | — | 03-31 22:57 |
| us x venezuela military engagement by december 31 391 819 722 945 174 285 817 971 353 859 836 598 255 382 192 983 | 61 | $138.1K | 110,300 | 28,200 | +82,100 | open | — | 01-05 00:26 |
| kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15 | 95 | $138.0K | 78,007 | 64,688 | +13,320 | open | — | 04-16 02:46 |
| us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761 | 132 | $132.0K | 123,991 | 22,250 | +101,741 | open | — | 02-28 07:32 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | 141 | $128.7K | 105,494 | 28,969 | +76,525 | open | — | 04-30 10:38 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | 150 | $123.2K | 68,015 | 66,627 | +1,388 | open | — | 05-31 08:05 |
| us x iran ceasefire by april 7 | 193 | $111.1K | 110,182 | 76,980 | +33,202 | open | — | 04-08 20:37 |
| khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31 | 91 | $109.5K | 60,854 | 52,207 | +8,647 | open | — | 02-01 05:30 |
| maduro in us custody by january 31 | 27 | $105.7K | 60,690 | 45,690 | +15,000 | open | — | 01-06 12:54 |
| new stranger things episode released by wednesday | 73 | $104.7K | 100,713 | 5,700 | +95,013 | open | — | 01-08 03:07 |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | 61 | $100.6K | 48,712 | 52,724 | -4,012 | open | — | 05-29 03:52 |
| us strikes iran by february 5 2026 | 32 | $97.6K | 98,250 | 0 | +98,250 | open | — | 02-06 04:49 |
| maduro out by january 31 2026 318 | 24 | $97.6K | 90,908 | 8,309 | +82,599 | open | — | 01-03 12:13 |
| us strikes iran by february 27 2026 | 105 | $96.8K | 93,875 | 6,000 | +87,875 | open | — | 02-28 07:03 |
| Starmer out by February 28, 2026? | 167 | $90.8K | 47,131 | 46,807 | +324 | open | — | 03-01 01:39 |
| us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553 | 57 | $85.7K | 69,648 | 18,877 | +50,771 | open | — | 02-21 03:24 |
| us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165 | 66 | $85.6K | 69,314 | 20,017 | +49,297 | open | — | 02-01 05:31 |
| us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519 | 67 | $84.6K | 42,122 | 43,828 | -1,706 | open | — | 04-05 03:50 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | 46 | $82.1K | 44,010 | 44,447 | -437 | open | — | 04-06 22:02 |
| kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31 | 101 | $81.8K | 52,437 | 34,086 | +18,351 | open | — | 04-01 01:26 |
| us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by january 31 | 30 | $77.6K | 78,000 | 0 | +78,000 | open | — | 02-04 00:22 |
| us strikes iran by february 4 2026 | 36 | $74.4K | 74,962 | 0 | +74,962 | open | — | 02-05 01:57 |
| atp alcaraz djokovi 2026 02 01 | 48 | $74.1K | 69,530 | 8,604 | +60,926 | open | — | 02-01 11:58 |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | 79 | $73.3K | 39,110 | 35,360 | +3,750 | open | — | 03-12 08:41 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | 533 | $3.36M | 54,889 | 06-10 00:33 |
| Expensive-Hubcap 0xf434…c6aa | 531 | $627.5K | 7,735 | 06-06 08:56 |
| Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | 530 | $552.5K | 4,469 | 06-09 18:42 |
| Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | 520 | $58.4K | 13,939 | 06-09 22:51 |
| Faraway-Seaside 0xf0b0…8cab | 500 | $1.13M | 86,279 | 06-01 05:34 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | 487 | $147.2K | 14,519 | 06-08 11:08 |
| Criminal-Causal 0xa18d…b16a | 476 | $299.9K | 6,421 | 06-08 21:48 |
| Hideous-Racer 0xc8ab…6418 | 464 | $79.4M | 100,318 | 06-10 00:52 |