Realized P&L
-$2.35K
Unrealized P&L
+$148
Hit rate
86.2%
Resolved
17
Trades
18,359
lifetime
Volume
$11.6M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$630
Open exposure
$54.3K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 07-20 18:21
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 8 days
Categories
Other
49%
100%
+$367
Politics
43%
88%
$-1,779
Sports
6%
83%
$-934
Tech
2%
—
—
Crypto
1%
—
—
Pop-Culture
0%
—
—
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
84 active days in 12wk
• peak 256 trades/day
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | No | -14,140 | $-13,508 | 96¢ | $-13638 | $-129 | 06-14 16:34 | |
| Yoon out of custody before 2027? | No | +8,141 | $6,488 | 90¢ | $7.3K | +$807 | 07-17 04:11 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | No | +6,000 | $5,822 | 99¢ | $5.9K | +$97 | 07-17 19:36 | |
| Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? | No | +4,318 | $3,681 | 90¢ | $3.9K | +$220 | 07-17 04:56 | |
| New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? | No | +3,089 | $2,853 | 95¢ | $2.9K | +$82 | 07-20 14:13 | |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | +3,000 | $2,580 | 94¢ | $2.8K | +$255 | 07-20 18:21 | |
| Trump goes to space in 2026? | No | -2,486 | $-2,413 | 98¢ | $-2444 | $-31 | 06-17 21:33 | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | +2,643 | $2,303 | 90¢ | $2.4K | +$63 | 07-17 17:57 | |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? | No | +1,300 | $961 | 98¢ | $1.3K | +$309 | 07-19 00:28 | |
| Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? | No | -1,000 | $-1,051 | 100¢ | $-996 | +$56 | 07-20 17:50 | |
| Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027? | No | +1,068 | $790 | 92¢ | $983 | +$193 | 07-05 13:20 | |
| Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? | No | +1,000 | $860 | 97¢ | $974 | +$114 | 06-28 03:41 | |
| Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? | No | -1,000 | $-946 | 97¢ | $-968 | $-22 | 06-06 08:55 | |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | -1,000 | $-956 | 96¢ | $-955 | +$0 | 07-19 02:23 | |
| Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announce a presidential run before 2027? | No | +1,000 | $941 | 95¢ | $950 | +$8 | 06-01 06:18 | |
| Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? | No | +1,000 | $954 | 94¢ | $936 | $-18 | 07-17 17:59 | |
| Will Hunter Biden announce a Presidential run before 2027? | No | +1,000 | $823 | 94¢ | $936 | +$112 | 06-19 09:02 | |
| Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms? | No | -659 | $-694 | 95¢ | $-623 | +$71 | 06-26 01:11 | |
| Will Hillary Clinton announce a Presidential run before 2027? | No | +633 | $600 | 96¢ | $607 | +$7 | 06-12 11:18 | |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? | No | -519 | $-493 | 96¢ | $-496 | $-3 | 07-19 17:04 | |
| Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? | No | +500 | $442 | 91¢ | $453 | +$12 | 07-05 13:22 | |
| Jonathan Majors as Kang? | No | +507 | $449 | 88¢ | $446 | $-2 | 06-29 22:32 | |
| Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? | No | -438 | $-508 | 94¢ | $-414 | +$93 | 07-13 13:16 | |
| Will AI be charged with a crime before 2027? | No | -333 | $-313 | 94¢ | $-315 | $-2 | 07-05 15:59 | |
| Will Jon Stewart announce a Presidential run before 2027? | No | +230 | $220 | 97¢ | $222 | +$3 | 06-11 13:06 | |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? | Yes | -1,000 | $2,034 | 12¢ | $-120 | $-2,154 | 07-06 00:51 | |
| Zohran Mamdani citizenship revoked before 2027? | No | +119 | $109 | 98¢ | $117 | +$8 | 06-11 08:21 | |
| Tim Walz charged by December 31, 2026? | No | +97 | $90 | 93¢ | $90 | +$0 | 06-29 04:31 | |
| EU dissolves before 2027? | No | -69 | $-67 | 98¢ | $-68 | $-1 | 05-29 22:13 | |
| Will Trump pardon Elon Musk before 2027? | No | +20 | $19 | 97¢ | $19 | +$1 | 06-08 14:54 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28 | 236 | $269.5K | 155,778 | 133,778 | +22,000 | open | — | 03-03 23:19 |
| will eleven die in stranger things season 5 | 117 | $253.3K | 144,313 | 110,000 | +34,313 | open | — | 01-04 08:46 |
| netanyahu out by march 31 854 | 160 | $200.8K | 106,599 | 105,321 | +1,278 | open | — | 03-30 09:20 |
| new stranger things episode released by january 31 294 | 137 | $199.9K | 86,415 | 116,906 | -30,492 | open | — | 01-31 21:09 |
| will the iranian regime fall by march 31 | 282 | $175.1K | 88,612 | 97,795 | -9,183 | open | — | 03-31 01:24 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | 90 | $151.8K | 77,200 | 80,250 | -3,050 | open | — | 04-26 15:08 |
| us x iran ceasefire by march 31 | 236 | $147.3K | 131,176 | 28,000 | +103,176 | open | — | 03-31 22:57 |
| us x venezuela military engagement by december 31 391 819 722 945 174 285 817 971 353 859 836 598 255 382 192 983 | 61 | $138.1K | 110,300 | 28,200 | +82,100 | open | — | 01-05 00:26 |
| kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15 | 95 | $138.0K | 78,007 | 64,688 | +13,320 | open | — | 04-16 02:46 |
| us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761 | 132 | $132.0K | 123,991 | 22,250 | +101,741 | open | — | 02-28 07:32 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | 141 | $128.7K | 105,494 | 28,969 | +76,525 | open | — | 04-30 10:38 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | 150 | $123.2K | 68,015 | 66,627 | +1,388 | open | — | 05-31 08:05 |
| us x iran ceasefire by april 7 | 193 | $111.1K | 110,182 | 76,980 | +33,202 | open | — | 04-08 20:37 |
| khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31 | 91 | $109.5K | 60,854 | 52,207 | +8,647 | open | — | 02-01 05:30 |
| maduro in us custody by january 31 | 27 | $105.7K | 60,690 | 45,690 | +15,000 | open | — | 01-06 12:54 |
| new stranger things episode released by wednesday | 73 | $104.7K | 100,713 | 5,700 | +95,013 | open | — | 01-08 03:07 |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | 61 | $100.6K | 48,712 | 52,724 | -4,012 | open | — | 05-29 03:52 |
| us strikes iran by february 5 2026 | 32 | $97.6K | 98,250 | 0 | +98,250 | open | — | 02-06 04:49 |
| maduro out by january 31 2026 318 | 24 | $97.6K | 90,908 | 8,309 | +82,599 | open | — | 01-03 12:13 |
| us strikes iran by february 27 2026 | 105 | $96.8K | 93,875 | 6,000 | +87,875 | open | — | 02-28 07:03 |
| Starmer out by February 28, 2026? | 167 | $90.8K | 47,131 | 46,807 | +324 | open | — | 03-01 01:39 |
| us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129 | 41 | $88.5K | 59,971 | 30,378 | +29,593 | open | — | 06-18 00:14 |
| us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553 | 57 | $85.7K | 69,648 | 18,877 | +50,771 | open | — | 02-21 03:24 |
| us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165 | 66 | $85.6K | 69,314 | 20,017 | +49,297 | open | — | 02-01 05:31 |
| us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519 | 67 | $84.6K | 42,122 | 43,828 | -1,706 | open | — | 04-05 03:50 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | 59 | $83.8K | 36,378 | 49,602 | -13,224 | open | — | 06-28 12:05 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | 46 | $82.1K | 44,010 | 44,447 | -437 | open | — | 04-06 22:02 |
| kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31 | 101 | $81.8K | 52,437 | 34,086 | +18,351 | open | — | 04-01 01:26 |
| us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by january 31 | 30 | $77.6K | 78,000 | 0 | +78,000 | open | — | 02-04 00:22 |
| us strikes iran by february 4 2026 | 36 | $74.4K | 74,962 | 0 | +74,962 | open | — | 02-05 01:57 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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