Flat-Badger — Polymarket

Realized P&L (7d)

+$4.97K

Unrealized P&L

+$2.11K

Hit rate

99.6%

Resolved (7d)

Trades (7d)

1,033

27,487 lifetime

Volume (7d)

$492.5K

$15.8M lifetime

Avg / trade

$574

Open exposure

$158.8K

30 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-27 09:58

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 238 days

Categories

Other

51% 94% +$97,517

Politics

38% 91% -$77,580

Sports

7% 95% +$11,012

Tech

3% 94% +$2,825

Crypto

0% 100% +$452

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$137

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

83 active days in 12wk • peak 283 trades/day

Open positions (30) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	+46,000	$43,056	92¢	$42.3K	-$736	10-27 10:07
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	+24,546	$23,033	92¢	$22.7K	-$328	10-27 10:07
Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?	No	+17,962	$15,031	92¢	$16.6K	+$1,539	10-27 05:26
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	+14,156	$13,742	97¢	$13.8K	+$11	10-27 09:04
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	+13,000	$11,550	84¢	$10.9K	-$695	10-23 18:58
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	No	+7,187	$6,618	98¢	$7.1K	+$458	10-27 03:37
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	-6,725	-$6,833	96¢	$-6460	+$374	10-24 04:28
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	+5,000	$4,520	92¢	$4.6K	+$105	10-08 05:45
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	+4,500	$3,149	85¢	$3.8K	+$680	10-10 21:19
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	No	-3,449	-$3,208	99¢	$-3404	-$196	06-06 08:55
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House	No	+3,000	$2,949	99¢	$3.0K	+$28	10-14 02:09
Will the Republicans win the Michigan governor race in 2026?	No	+3,000	$2,791	93¢	$2.8K	+$9	10-23 23:44
Will Venezuela become 51st state?	No	-2,000	-$1,939	98¢	$-1959	-$20	05-21 14:31
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	No	-2,000	-$2,030	97¢	$-1937	+$93	08-03 09:21
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?	No	-2,000	-$1,760	96¢	$-1913	-$153	04-29 06:20
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	+2,025	$1,378	88¢	$1.8K	+$414	10-06 15:17
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?	Yes	+1,507	$1,386	94¢	$1.4K	+$35	09-20 21:05
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31?	No	-1,245	-$1,291	98¢	$-1222	+$69	09-04 03:22
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?	No	+1,068	$1,000	95¢	$1.0K	+$19	10-25 21:12
Plague pandemic in 2026?	No	+1,032	$973	98¢	$1.0K	+$39	10-18 05:40
Trump renames New Mexico to New America by December 31, 2026?	No	+1,100	$1,033	91¢	$1.0K	-$28	10-24 19:25
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?	No	+1,067	$1,000	92¢	$987	-$13	10-15 12:21
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	-1,000	-$956	98¢	$-975	-$19	07-19 02:23
Will Donald Trump attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	+1,062	$991	92¢	$972	-$19	10-14 16:34
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?	No	+1,000	$860	94¢	$945	+$85	06-28 03:41
Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?	No	+1,000	$920	93¢	$930	+$10	09-14 01:17
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?	No	+980	$838	94¢	$920	+$83	10-25 23:31
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	+1,000	$720	89¢	$892	+$172	10-01 16:12
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	No	+1,000	$670	77¢	$770	+$100	07-27 15:27
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to less than 20 years in prison?	No	+788	$725	91¢	$717	-$8	10-24 23:15

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	236	$269.5K	155,778	133,778	+22,000	Yes	-$8,558	03-03 23:19
will eleven die in stranger things season 5	117	$253.3K	144,313	110,000	+34,313	No	+$586	01-04 08:46
netanyahu out by march 31 854	160	$200.8K	106,599	105,321	+1,278	No	+$4,128	03-30 09:20
new stranger things episode released by january 31 294	137	$199.9K	86,415	116,906	-30,492	No	+$1,131	01-31 21:09
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	282	$175.1K	88,612	97,795	-9,183	No	+$6,514	03-31 01:24
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	90	$151.8K	77,200	80,250	-3,050	No	+$2,649	04-26 15:08
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	236	$147.3K	131,176	28,000	+103,176	No	+$4,666	03-31 22:57
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 1080m by August 31?	133	$141.6K	71,245	71,124	+120	No	+$641	08-27 15:17
us x venezuela military engagement by december 31 391 819 722 945 174 285 817 971 353 859 836 598 255 382 192 983	61	$138.1K	110,300	28,200	+82,100	No	+$333	01-05 00:26
kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	95	$138.0K	78,007	64,688	+13,320	No	+$3,496	04-16 02:46
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	132	$132.0K	123,991	22,250	+101,741	Yes	-$2,258	02-28 07:32
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	141	$128.7K	105,494	28,969	+76,525	No	+$4,146	04-30 10:38
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	152	$123.6K	68,524	66,627	+1,897	No	+$3,589	05-31 08:05
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	193	$111.1K	110,182	76,980	+33,202	Yes	-$82,205	04-08 20:37
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	91	$109.5K	60,854	52,207	+8,647	No	+$2,796	02-01 05:30
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	99	$107.8K	51,813	59,902	-8,089	No	+$1,848	06-28 12:05
maduro in us custody by january 31	27	$105.7K	60,690	45,690	+15,000	Yes	+$544	01-06 12:54
new stranger things episode released by wednesday	73	$104.7K	100,713	5,700	+95,013	No	+$1,688	01-08 03:07
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	62	$104.5K	52,712	52,724	-12	Yes	+$686	05-29 03:52
us strikes iran by february 5 2026	32	$97.6K	98,250	0	+98,250	No	+$645	02-06 04:49
maduro out by january 31 2026 318	24	$97.6K	90,908	8,309	+82,599	Yes	+$817	01-03 12:13
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	105	$96.8K	93,875	6,000	+87,875	No	+$3,058	02-28 07:03
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	52	$92.6K	62,478	32,478	+30,000	Yes	+$1,583	06-18 00:14
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?	167	$90.8K	47,131	46,807	+324	No	+$2,401	03-01 01:39
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	286	$86.7K	77,224	12,000	+65,224	Yes	+$2,358	06-29 21:51
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	57	$85.7K	69,648	18,877	+50,771	No	+$2,418	02-21 03:24
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	66	$85.6K	69,314	20,017	+49,297	No	+$2,309	02-01 05:31
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	67	$84.6K	42,122	43,828	-1,706	No	+$1,267	04-05 03:50
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	46	$82.1K	44,010	44,447	-437	Yes	+$2,065	04-06 22:02
kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	101	$81.8K	52,437	34,086	+18,351	No	+$2,630	04-01 01:26

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 10:07:45	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	660	92¢	$611	0x88eda4…
10-27 10:07:45	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	340	92¢	$314	0x2cf53f…
10-27 10:07:45	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,000	92¢	$922	0x27ef69…
10-27 10:07:45	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	1,000	93¢	$930	0x05b86d…
10-27 10:03:45	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,000	94¢	$935	0xc27b9f…
10-27 10:00:51	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,000	93¢	$1,862	0xb2fa0d…
10-27 09:58:36	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3,000	93¢	$2,796	0xcee58c…
10-27 09:58:36	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,000	93¢	$1,866	0x496731…
10-27 09:58:02	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2,000	93¢	$1,860	0xf7eea3…
10-27 09:30:15	Will PVEM win the most seats in the 2027 Nuevo León Congress election?	No	SELL	20	88¢	$18	0xd33920…
10-27 09:09:06	Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME Person of the Year 2026?	No	SELL	345	93¢	$320	0x226abe…
10-27 09:04:54	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	BUY	10,156	97¢	$9,852	0x684bb0…
10-27 09:01:17	Will Netherlands participate in Eurovision 2027?	Yes	BUY	109	92¢	$100	0x90b644…
10-27 06:34:18	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	BUY	318	97¢	$309	0x1f96b8…
10-27 06:32:33	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,000	94¢	$1,872	0x1ac994…
10-27 06:20:05	Will Hillary Clinton be arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	1,562	96¢	$1,500	0xa7da1a…
10-27 06:17:51	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	BUY	1,682	97¢	$1,633	0x21e545…
10-27 06:07:14	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	BUY	800	97¢	$779	0x684b63…
10-27 05:57:32	France defaults on debt by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	549	91¢	$500	0x868871…
10-27 05:54:59	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	6,346	94¢	$5,965	0x8855c7…
10-27 05:45:51	Will Space Exploration Technologies’ market capitalization be between $2.50T and $2.75T at the end of November 2026?	No	SELL	12	95¢	$12	0x834a17…
10-27 05:31:59	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	BUY	1,200	97¢	$1,169	0xcdfbf5…
10-27 05:29:12	Will Hillary Clinton be arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	1,546	97¢	$1,500	0x296f24…
10-27 05:28:30	Will "The End of Oak Street" be nominated for Best Sound at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	149	89¢	$133	0x7d5a3b…
10-27 05:26:33	Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?	No	SELL	37	92¢	$34	0x865544…
10-27 05:25:41	Yoon out of custody before 2027?	No	SELL	1,268	97¢	$1,226	0x4c7713…
10-27 05:23:53	Yoon out of custody before 2027?	No	SELL	10,319	96¢	$9,906	0x654d92…
10-27 05:23:44	Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?	No	SELL	5,715	97¢	$5,544	0x4bf3de…
10-27 05:23:35	Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	No	SELL	713	96¢	$681	0x479521…
10-27 03:37:39	Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	No	SELL	3,896	99¢	$3,842	0x313536…
10-27 02:51:27	Will Tom Homan be arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	30	91¢	$27	0x3172e1…
10-27 02:30:51	Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?	No	SELL	2,000	95¢	$1,898	0xe8dc64…
10-27 02:13:48	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	8,000	0¢	$24	0xf1df49…
10-27 02:13:08	UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026?	No	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0x973051…
10-27 01:45:42	Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	128	98¢	$126	0xf7b1d9…
10-27 01:45:27	Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	872	98¢	$856	0xfd45da…
10-27 01:45:26	Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	No	BUY	2,000	98¢	$1,962	0xcdee3a…
10-27 01:44:41	Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	No	BUY	21	98¢	$21	0x2440f2…
10-27 01:44:14	Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	0	98¢	$0	0x168f4a…
10-27 01:44:12	Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	1,150	98¢	$1,129	0xa72f5a…
10-27 01:43:57	Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	312	98¢	$308	0x42ade9…
10-27 01:43:53	Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	145	98¢	$143	0x4a85a5…
10-27 01:43:53	Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	1,000	99¢	$988	0x1bd7d5…
10-27 01:40:45	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	8	0¢	$0	0x54950c…
10-27 01:37:12	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	42	0¢	$0	0xe8aa68…
10-27 01:33:21	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	6	0¢	$0	0x6cc6d6…
10-27 01:30:48	Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	No	SELL	29	99¢	$29	0xc5ca04…
10-27 01:17:09	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	1,555	0¢	$2	0x0461ce…
10-27 01:16:59	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	500	0¢	$0	0xcfaa9f…
10-27 01:15:12	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	22	0¢	$0	0x7a9f52…
10-27 01:15:11	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	3,162	0¢	$3	0x641ecd…
10-27 01:02:02	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	104	0¢	$0	0x45a092…
10-27 00:57:27	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	827	0¢	$1	0xa931b0…
10-27 00:55:09	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0xa83006…
10-27 00:55:05	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0xd8cfee…
10-27 00:54:18	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0xc44c38…
10-27 00:54:08	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	84	0¢	$0	0xdd71a7…
10-27 00:49:21	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	8	0¢	$0	0x87407f…
10-27 00:44:39	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	100	0¢	$0	0xa3af14…
10-27 00:44:38	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	3	0¢	$0	0xf0f30b…
10-27 00:27:03	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	2,000	0¢	$2	0xb2ba4d…
10-26 23:02:32	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Mbappé	BUY	251	99¢	$248	0x474179…
10-26 23:01:30	Will Lamine Yamal finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x5369bf…
10-26 23:00:45	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Mbappé	BUY	49	99¢	$49	0xe143db…
10-26 22:55:24	Will Kylian Mbappé finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	1,794	99¢	$1,776	0x137641…
10-26 22:55:23	Will Kylian Mbappé finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	300	99¢	$297	0x409028…
10-26 22:55:21	Will Kylian Mbappé finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	1,402	99¢	$1,388	0x5a233d…
10-26 22:55:21	Will Kylian Mbappé finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	8	99¢	$7	0x4b21eb…
10-26 22:50:50	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	4,008	100¢	$4,000	0x8beca2…
10-26 22:29:27	Will PVEM win the most seats in the 2027 Chihuahua Congress election?	No	SELL	30	91¢	$27	0x02c316…
10-26 20:52:12	Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	365	94¢	$345	0x4c4b85…
10-26 20:52:08	Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	107	94¢	$101	0x693531…
10-26 20:52:03	Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	29	94¢	$28	0x3e38a4…
10-26 20:52:02	Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	19	94¢	$18	0xc031c5…
10-26 20:52:02	Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	94¢	$47	0x59bce1…
10-26 20:52:02	Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	186	94¢	$176	0x2a7532…
10-26 20:43:05	Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	No	SELL	74	99¢	$73	0x781131…
10-26 20:27:23	Will Adam Schiff be arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	50	93¢	$47	0x37ca9e…
10-26 20:09:42	Andy Burnham out as UK PM by December 31?	No	SELL	1,630	93¢	$1,521	0x7211d4…
10-26 19:49:56	Will SpaceXAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of November 2026?	No	SELL	6	98¢	$6	0x8356cb…
10-26 19:49:15	Will SpaceXAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of November 2026?	No	BUY	52	96¢	$50	0xc47f35…
10-26 19:06:27	Will Gavin Newsom be arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	25	96¢	$24	0x7df8ce…
10-26 19:05:47	Will Gavin Newsom be arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0xc28cb7…
10-26 18:23:05	Will "Wild Horse Nine" score at least 87 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	SELL	92	96¢	$89	0x1be04d…
10-26 17:19:15	Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?	No	BUY	61	94¢	$58	0x428ed6…
10-26 16:36:44	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?	No	SELL	1,055	95¢	$1,001	0x6ff018…
10-26 16:30:20	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	151	94¢	$142	0xaeb23d…
10-26 16:30:12	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	260	94¢	$243	0x94590d…
10-26 15:56:14	Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	1,733	0¢	$2	0x244938…
10-26 15:55:42	Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	1,000	0¢	$1	0x92d82a…
10-26 15:46:32	Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	1,000	0¢	$1	0xc2b7dc…
10-26 15:46:12	Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	7,447	0¢	$7	0xca52b8…
10-26 15:40:54	Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	1,020	0¢	$1	0xed6b41…
10-26 15:35:48	Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	1,000	0¢	$1	0x563783…
10-26 15:32:39	Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	2,000	0¢	$2	0xe85196…
10-26 15:30:53	Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	5,000	0¢	$5	0x8713e1…
10-26 15:30:36	Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	1,000	0¢	$1	0x649984…
10-26 15:28:00	Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	1,000	0¢	$1	0xe3435b…
10-26 15:27:48	Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	3,166	0¢	$3	0x63049d…
10-26 15:23:38	Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	2,010	0¢	$2	0xb30970…