Flat-Badger — Polymarket

Realized P&L (30d)

+$20.9K

Unrealized P&L

+$8.79K

Hit rate

99.9%

Resolved (30d)

113

Trades (30d)

2,507

27,909 lifetime

Volume (30d)

$1.20M

$16.0M lifetime

Avg / trade

$575

Open exposure

$150.6K

30 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-29 14:47

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 239 days

Categories

Other

51% 94% +$102,504

Politics

39% 91% -$77,517

Sports

7% 95% +$11,012

Tech

3% 94% +$2,825

Crypto

0% 100% +$452

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$137

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

83 active days in 12wk • peak 283 trades/day

Open positions (30) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	+26,000	$22,743	99¢	$25.7K	+$2,997	10-29 01:19
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	No	+13,970	$13,332	99¢	$13.9K	+$540	10-29 06:50
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	+12,365	$11,985	98¢	$12.2K	+$194	10-29 12:08
Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?	No	+12,819	$10,170	95¢	$12.1K	+$1,951	10-27 20:32
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	+12,156	$11,780	99¢	$12.1K	+$310	10-28 10:00
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	+13,000	$11,550	82¢	$10.7K	-$825	10-23 18:58
Will Likud win 35 or more seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	+8,000	$7,600	100¢	$8.0K	+$392	10-28 01:12
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	+8,000	$7,310	94¢	$7.5K	+$170	10-29 15:13
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	-6,725	-$6,833	96¢	$-6466	+$367	10-24 04:28
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	+6,115	$4,731	98¢	$6.0K	+$1,271	10-29 05:00
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	+6,000	$5,781	99¢	$5.9K	+$159	10-28 23:02
Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?	No	+4,012	$3,471	99¢	$4.0K	+$513	10-29 11:03
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	No	-3,449	-$3,208	98¢	$-3395	-$188	06-06 08:55
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House	No	+3,000	$2,949	99¢	$3.0K	+$28	10-14 02:09
Will Venezuela become 51st state?	No	-2,000	-$1,939	98¢	$-1952	-$13	05-21 14:31
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	No	-2,000	-$2,030	97¢	$-1938	+$92	08-03 09:21
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?	No	-2,000	-$1,760	96¢	$-1910	-$150	04-29 06:20
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	+2,025	$1,378	90¢	$1.8K	+$434	10-06 15:17
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?	Yes	+1,507	$1,386	94¢	$1.4K	+$38	09-20 21:05
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?	No	+1,138	$984	94¢	$1.1K	+$90	10-27 19:48
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027?	No	+1,057	$958	96¢	$1.0K	+$55	10-27 12:06
Plague pandemic in 2026?	No	+1,032	$973	98¢	$1.0K	+$37	10-18 05:40
Trump renames New Mexico to New America by December 31, 2026?	No	+1,100	$1,033	92¢	$1.0K	-$24	10-24 19:25
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?	No	+1,067	$1,000	93¢	$990	-$10	10-15 12:21
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	-1,000	-$956	98¢	$-975	-$19	07-19 02:23
Will Donald Trump attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	+1,062	$991	91¢	$967	-$25	10-14 16:34
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?	No	+1,000	$860	96¢	$963	+$103	06-28 03:41
Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?	No	+1,000	$920	93¢	$930	+$10	09-14 01:17
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	No	+1,000	$670	86¢	$865	+$195	07-27 15:27
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31?	No	-883	-$945	96¢	$-845	+$100	10-29 06:12

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	236	$269.5K	155,778	133,778	+22,000	Yes	-$8,558	03-03 23:19
will eleven die in stranger things season 5	117	$253.3K	144,313	110,000	+34,313	No	+$586	01-04 08:46
netanyahu out by march 31 854	160	$200.8K	106,599	105,321	+1,278	No	+$4,128	03-30 09:20
new stranger things episode released by january 31 294	137	$199.9K	86,415	116,906	-30,492	No	+$1,131	01-31 21:09
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	282	$175.1K	88,612	97,795	-9,183	No	+$6,514	03-31 01:24
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	90	$151.8K	77,200	80,250	-3,050	No	+$2,649	04-26 15:08
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	236	$147.3K	131,176	28,000	+103,176	No	+$4,666	03-31 22:57
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 1080m by August 31?	133	$141.6K	71,245	71,124	+120	No	+$641	08-27 15:17
us x venezuela military engagement by december 31 391 819 722 945 174 285 817 971 353 859 836 598 255 382 192 983	61	$138.1K	110,300	28,200	+82,100	No	+$333	01-05 00:26
kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	95	$138.0K	78,007	64,688	+13,320	No	+$3,496	04-16 02:46
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	132	$132.0K	123,991	22,250	+101,741	Yes	-$2,258	02-28 07:32
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	141	$128.7K	105,494	28,969	+76,525	No	+$4,146	04-30 10:38
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	152	$123.6K	68,524	66,627	+1,897	No	+$3,589	05-31 08:05
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	193	$111.1K	110,182	76,980	+33,202	Yes	-$82,205	04-08 20:37
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	91	$109.5K	60,854	52,207	+8,647	No	+$2,796	02-01 05:30
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	99	$107.8K	51,813	59,902	-8,089	No	+$1,848	06-28 12:05
maduro in us custody by january 31	27	$105.7K	60,690	45,690	+15,000	Yes	+$544	01-06 12:54
new stranger things episode released by wednesday	73	$104.7K	100,713	5,700	+95,013	No	+$1,688	01-08 03:07
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	62	$104.5K	52,712	52,724	-12	Yes	+$686	05-29 03:52
us strikes iran by february 5 2026	32	$97.6K	98,250	0	+98,250	No	+$645	02-06 04:49
maduro out by january 31 2026 318	24	$97.6K	90,908	8,309	+82,599	Yes	+$817	01-03 12:13
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	105	$96.8K	93,875	6,000	+87,875	No	+$3,058	02-28 07:03
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	52	$92.6K	62,478	32,478	+30,000	Yes	+$1,583	06-18 00:14
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?	167	$90.8K	47,131	46,807	+324	No	+$2,401	03-01 01:39
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	96	$87.0K	58,493	32,493	+26,000	open	—	10-29 01:19
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	286	$86.7K	77,224	12,000	+65,224	Yes	+$2,358	06-29 21:51
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	57	$85.7K	69,648	18,877	+50,771	No	+$2,418	02-21 03:24
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	66	$85.6K	69,314	20,017	+49,297	No	+$2,309	02-01 05:31
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	67	$84.6K	42,122	43,828	-1,706	No	+$1,267	04-05 03:50
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	46	$82.1K	44,010	44,447	-437	Yes	+$2,065	04-06 22:02

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 15:21:11	Will Likud win 35 or more seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0xaeb916…
10-29 15:21:10	Will Likud win 35 or more seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0x2b9426…
10-29 15:13:35	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	BUY	3,000	93¢	$2,790	0xb1b739…
10-29 14:47:32	Will Likud win 35 or more seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	4	0¢	$0	0x28ed70…
10-29 14:23:14	Will Baidu be the second-best AI lab at the end of December 2026?	No	SELL	30	95¢	$28	0x291c10…
10-29 14:23:14	Will Baidu be the second-best AI lab at the end of December 2026?	No	SELL	33	95¢	$31	0x160691…
10-29 14:21:34	Will Baidu be the second-best AI lab at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	64	93¢	$59	0x808532…
10-29 14:04:49	Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?	No	SELL	47	96¢	$45	0x48a763…
10-29 13:58:17	Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	885	0¢	$4	0xddd9f5…
10-29 12:08:32	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	1,000	97¢	$970	0xbad6e1…
10-29 11:59:37	Israel Election: Arab party disqualified?	No	BUY	1,000	90¢	$900	0xb75ca7…
10-29 11:58:10	Israel Election: Arab party disqualified?	No	BUY	120	94¢	$112	0x996766…
10-29 11:57:50	Israel Election: Arab party disqualified?	No	BUY	600	94¢	$564	0x48e346…
10-29 11:21:53	Will Teddy Riner be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	1,095	91¢	$1,000	0x6bbc85…
10-29 11:03:17	Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?	No	BUY	652	98¢	$642	0x48a306…
10-29 10:19:31	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	978	97¢	$946	0x7175be…
10-29 10:15:26	Will PVEM win the most seats in the 2027 Sinaloa Congress election?	No	BUY	32	89¢	$29	0x0cb4c2…
10-29 09:53:25	Israel Election: Arab party disqualified?	No	BUY	925	95¢	$874	0x386818…
10-29 09:30:13	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	2,000	98¢	$1,956	0x311081…
10-29 09:26:37	Will "Dune: Part Three" be nominated for Best Visual Effects at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	0	96¢	$0	0xc60f70…
10-29 09:23:02	Will "Dune: Part Three" be nominated for Best Visual Effects at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	10	92¢	$10	0x3aa7d2…
10-29 09:16:31	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	174	98¢	$171	0xa3c852…
10-29 09:06:04	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	148	98¢	$145	0xfc9bbd…
10-29 09:05:59	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	678	98¢	$665	0x5b2b60…
10-29 08:25:52	Will Likud win 35 or more seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	5,645	0¢	$6	0x4d3c3f…
10-29 07:33:47	Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	1,720	0¢	$5	0xe1f7ba…
10-29 07:29:10	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	583	98¢	$570	0xb5d1f6…
10-29 07:28:44	Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	5,732	0¢	$6	0xbc921f…
10-29 07:25:56	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	2,000	98¢	$1,962	0x164079…
10-29 07:20:13	Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	36	0¢	$0	0xb19257…
10-29 07:05:40	Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	3,333	0¢	$10	0xe73e67…
10-29 07:05:14	Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	6,268	0¢	$6	0xeb5f4a…
10-29 06:50:53	Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	No	BUY	6,782	99¢	$6,714	0xc0369c…
10-29 06:46:07	Israel Election: Arab party disqualified?	No	BUY	13	95¢	$12	0x349982…
10-29 06:45:53	Israel Election: Arab party disqualified?	No	BUY	801	95¢	$759	0xa6b9e1…
10-29 06:21:59	Will "The Odyssey" be nominated for Best Cinematography at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	54	94¢	$51	0x435530…
10-29 06:12:55	New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31?	No	BUY	142	95¢	$135	0xbb6a82…
10-29 06:02:28	Jonathan Majors as Kang?	No	SELL	18	92¢	$17	0xb7e45f…
10-29 05:53:32	Will Meituan be the #3 AI Lab at the end of December 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	SELL	54	92¢	$50	0x3c8a5b…
10-29 05:00:59	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,295	98¢	$1,270	0x770250…
10-29 04:59:07	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	1,000	100¢	$998	0x3149ef…
10-29 04:38:41	Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	443	0¢	$2	0xc8dcf1…
10-29 03:46:37	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	321	97¢	$312	0xd71f28…
10-29 02:10:22	Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?	No	BUY	1,323	98¢	$1,302	0x75174e…
10-29 02:02:13	Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	200	0¢	$1	0x475cb0…
10-29 01:41:41	New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31?	No	BUY	220	96¢	$211	0x50a1bc…
10-29 01:19:29	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	1,328	98¢	$1,306	0xe36eec…
10-29 01:16:56	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	137	98¢	$135	0xfb9ee4…
10-29 01:16:46	Will Likud win 35 or more seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	87	0¢	$0	0x046603…
10-29 00:53:14	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	534	98¢	$525	0xd8a765…
10-28 23:11:01	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	3,000	98¢	$2,943	0x4447e7…
10-28 23:07:13	Will the Republicans win the Michigan governor race in 2026?	No	SELL	52	95¢	$50	0xfc4161…
10-28 23:07:13	Will the Republicans win the Michigan governor race in 2026?	No	SELL	65	95¢	$61	0x6f000e…
10-28 23:02:31	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	3,000	99¢	$2,973	0x2c18ec…
10-28 22:54:28	Will the Republicans win the Michigan governor race in 2026?	No	SELL	95	95¢	$90	0x2d4156…
10-28 22:40:47	Israel Election: Arab party disqualified?	No	BUY	201	95¢	$191	0xf6810c…
10-28 22:31:10	Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	6,268	0¢	$31	0x7804cd…
10-28 22:06:01	Will Likud win 35 or more seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	268	0¢	$0	0x440c9b…
10-28 22:05:58	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	160	99¢	$158	0x2df992…
10-28 22:05:56	Will Likud win 35 or more seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	6,000	0¢	$6	0xf452d6…
10-28 22:05:35	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	359	99¢	$354	0x1fe1c9…
10-28 22:05:08	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	326	99¢	$322	0x35ff78…
10-28 21:55:05	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	2,000	99¢	$1,972	0xdc6ab1…
10-28 21:52:50	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	24	98¢	$23	0x74e36b…
10-28 21:32:50	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	900	98¢	$885	0xe3eb3f…
10-28 21:31:22	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	368	98¢	$361	0x3f6052…
10-28 21:10:02	Israel Election: Arab party disqualified?	No	BUY	1,820	94¢	$1,709	0xc5e74f…
10-28 20:59:17	Will Meituan be the #3 AI Lab at the end of December 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	BUY	54	92¢	$50	0x03a018…
10-28 20:17:40	Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?	No	SELL	1,963	100¢	$1,959	0x2092bb…
10-28 20:00:44	Will the Republicans win the Michigan governor race in 2026?	No	SELL	0	95¢	$0	0x65b70c…
10-28 20:00:43	Will the Republicans win the Michigan governor race in 2026?	No	SELL	30	95¢	$28	0x1ef4c8…
10-28 19:00:11	Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" be nominated for Best Original Score at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	250	98¢	$245	0x947279…
10-28 18:23:37	Will Trump pardon Matt Gaetz before 2027?	No	BUY	20	93¢	$19	0x0b9ac1…
10-28 18:00:05	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,835	98¢	$1,802	0x1145f8…
10-28 18:00:04	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,527	98¢	$1,500	0x5cd053…
10-28 18:00:04	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2,637	98¢	$2,590	0x40c0bf…
10-28 17:57:02	Will Tom Homan be arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	36	91¢	$33	0x95a735…
10-28 17:14:55	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	3,515	100¢	$3,498	0xa4c858…
10-28 17:08:47	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x3e2827…
10-28 16:58:52	Will the Republicans win the Michigan governor race in 2026?	No	SELL	120	95¢	$114	0x3dfaec…
10-28 16:14:26	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x244f28…
10-28 16:10:26	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	48	100¢	$47	0x2e43a6…
10-28 15:57:08	Will PVEM win the most seats in the 2027 Sinaloa Congress election?	No	BUY	40	90¢	$36	0x0fa642…
10-28 15:43:49	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	91	100¢	$90	0xd914aa…
10-28 15:39:13	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	3,000	99¢	$2,982	0xca3d09…
10-28 15:37:29	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	100	99¢	$99	0x37a320…
10-28 15:24:58	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x1c76bb…
10-28 15:16:59	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	736	99¢	$730	0xc649e5…
10-28 14:13:53	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	2,063	100¢	$2,057	0xb418bd…
10-28 13:56:40	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	2,950	98¢	$2,894	0xf01543…
10-28 13:35:55	Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?	No	BUY	2,000	99¢	$1,972	0x7614ab…
10-28 13:34:46	Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?	No	BUY	1,963	99¢	$1,936	0x6f582f…
10-28 13:34:01	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,000	95¢	$1,896	0x4cf52a…
10-28 13:33:17	Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?	No	SELL	1,033	100¢	$1,029	0x493e58…
10-28 13:17:02	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0xa296a0…
10-28 13:12:58	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,000	95¢	$1,896	0xb22861…
10-28 13:10:29	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	1,971	98¢	$1,934	0xb0fe90…
10-28 13:06:58	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	29	98¢	$28	0xe89db5…
10-28 13:04:07	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	3,905	2¢	$82	0x6817b4…
10-28 13:01:17	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	1,000	95¢	$950	0xc45426…