Moral-Plea — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$480

Unrealized P&L

+$846

Hit rate

59.9%

Resolved

454

Trades

5,192

lifetime

Volume

$367.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$71

Open exposure

$3.28K

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-10

last 08-05 22:46

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 163 days

Categories

Politics

77% 47% -$2,410

Other

20% 42% +$1,632

Crypto

2% 11% +$343

Sports

1% 54% +$361

Tech

0% 0% -$407

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	+1,887	$763	93¢	$1.8K	+$991	08-05 13:41
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+2,559	$1,220	42¢	$1.1K	-$157	06-04 13:13
us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	No	+529	$456	88¢	$468	+$12	08-04 14:04

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	31	$10.8K	9,104	9,104	+0	Yes	-$2,373	04-08 12:00
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	112	$9.5K	9,319	7,832	+1,487	Yes	+$311	04-16 14:03
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	65	$9.4K	7,584	7,584	+0	No	-$420	04-15 18:10
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	43	$8.2K	5,695	4,695	+1,000	Yes	-$19	03-24 07:29
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	47	$8.1K	6,278	6,180	+97	No	-$236	04-22 08:13
will uae strike iran by march 31	91	$7.6K	4,886	4,886	+0	No	+$446	03-24 14:09
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	31	$6.8K	6,831	6,831	+0	Yes	+$610	04-07 22:36
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	39	$6.7K	6,520	5,467	+1,052	Yes	-$748	04-16 17:52
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	5	$6.7K	7,144	4,934	+2,210	Yes	+$361	04-07 22:50
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026?	28	$5.9K	3,902	3,737	+165	Yes	+$1,203	04-09 00:13
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	18	$5.8K	3,791	2,843	+949	No	-$41	07-30 22:27
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	32	$4.9K	3,123	2,610	+513	No	+$512	05-02 00:57
houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	69	$4.6K	4,643	1,794	+2,849	No	+$724	03-31 13:24
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	22	$4.5K	2,657	2,657	+0	No	+$154	04-01 16:26
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	21	$4.1K	3,912	2,534	+1,378	No	-$174	04-26 19:44
israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	35	$4.1K	4,303	4,303	+0	Yes	-$1,247	06-04 00:25
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	41	$3.9K	3,759	2,711	+1,048	Yes	+$1,344	04-17 19:06
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	12	$3.8K	2,291	2,291	+0	No	+$394	04-27 18:21
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	9	$3.8K	2,049	2,049	+0	No	+$169	05-20 18:32
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	45	$3.7K	4,412	4,412	+0	Yes	+$322	04-07 21:54
us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	8	$3.7K	3,029	2,500	+529	open	—	08-04 14:04
houthi strike on israel by march 15 2026	33	$3.5K	2,051	2,051	+0	No	+$526	03-17 17:24
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	31	$3.4K	5,601	5,601	+0	Yes	-$416	08-05 13:43
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	43	$3.4K	2,767	1,059	+1,708	Yes	+$387	05-06 01:27
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	13	$3.4K	2,878	2,647	+231	No	+$174	07-29 11:40
will iran strike israel on march 6	30	$3.3K	1,849	1,886	-37	No	+$468	03-10 19:12
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	28	$3.2K	2,780	1,388	+1,392	Yes	+$748	05-31 17:44
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	22	$3.2K	2,820	1,113	+1,707	No	+$699	05-31 10:54
will israel strike gaza on february 10 2026	65	$3.2K	2,800	2,800	+0	Yes	-$178	02-13 23:36
will hezbollah conduct military action against israel on march 22 2026 854	55	$3.2K	2,676	2,676	+0	Yes	+$627	03-29 14:41

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-05 22:46:36	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	160	63¢	$100	0xe2a2c9…
08-05 18:10:50	untitled market 1 20260803235754057	Yes	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x2bdc99…
08-05 18:10:14	untitled market 1 20260803235754057	Yes	BUY	384	60¢	$230	0x756974…
08-05 18:03:14	untitled market 1 20260803235754057	Yes	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0xc4587a…
08-05 18:03:09	untitled market 1 20260803235754057	Yes	BUY	400	61¢	$244	0x8ddc77…
08-05 13:43:35	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	No	SELL	300	12¢	$36	0x53ed68…
08-05 13:43:27	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	1,546	20¢	$309	0xa5d09a…
08-05 13:41:56	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	BUY	388	38¢	$147	0x94fdf1…
08-05 13:41:39	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	BUY	518	37¢	$192	0x7798e6…
08-05 07:48:44	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	BUY	1,613	31¢	$500	0xd842c8…
08-04 22:36:27	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	155	65¢	$100	0xbd42a1…
08-04 17:09:53	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	100	21¢	$21	0x7b1e64…
08-04 14:11:32	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	1,446	31¢	$448	0x6bcd2a…
08-04 14:06:57	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	BUY	119	31¢	$37	0xb647db…
08-04 14:04:24	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	BUY	1,993	31¢	$618	0x505d72…
08-04 14:04:08	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	No	SELL	2,200	64¢	$1,408	0x766d4c…
08-04 14:00:12	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	595	32¢	$190	0x3e013f…
08-04 13:58:39	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0x68c1cb…
08-04 13:58:21	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	No	SELL	300	64¢	$192	0x018a74…
08-04 11:20:06	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	BUY	1,661	27¢	$448	0x9862b2…
08-04 11:01:14	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	698	43¢	$300	0x84dc54…
08-04 11:00:23	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	24	42¢	$10	0x04a05b…
08-04 10:52:50	will donald trump publicly insult tucker carlson by july 31 2026 20260626210612710	Yes	SELL	480	100¢	$480	0x632c44…
08-04 10:51:54	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	1,300	39¢	$507	0xa217e8…
08-04 08:46:03	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	301	78¢	$234	0x950275…
08-04 08:33:59	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	149	49¢	$73	0xa1a5af…
08-04 07:39:44	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	3	49¢	$1	0xfcbf2b…
08-04 07:39:44	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	3	49¢	$1	0xe557e3…
08-04 07:39:44	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	6	49¢	$3	0xa60694…
08-04 07:39:42	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xad0527…
08-04 07:39:42	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	30	49¢	$15	0x11b507…
08-04 07:39:39	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	7	49¢	$4	0xd9c179…
08-04 07:39:39	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	70	49¢	$35	0x056144…
08-04 07:34:57	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	1,200	49¢	$588	0x7a93c2…
08-03 20:53:57	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	No	BUY	300	23¢	$69	0xcfa594…
08-03 19:56:23	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	No	BUY	200	42¢	$84	0xf3c0e2…
08-03 16:43:26	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	300	37¢	$111	0x05996c…
08-03 16:35:27	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	BUY	250	51¢	$128	0xc690f3…
08-03 16:35:17	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	BUY	386	50¢	$193	0x72ad84…
08-03 16:34:47	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	No	SELL	1,510	0¢	$3	0xce5f2c…
08-03 16:08:38	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	36	37¢	$13	0xe7dda4…
08-03 16:00:23	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x0ff152…
08-03 16:00:15	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0x79e56c…
08-03 16:00:11	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	BUY	25	47¢	$12	0xe913d1…
08-03 15:47:30	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	10	37¢	$4	0x9b3659…
08-03 15:47:06	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	13	37¢	$5	0x7ccad1…
08-03 15:42:39	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	0	37¢	$0	0xc7f0e4…
08-03 15:37:48	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	341	37¢	$126	0x9a263a…
08-03 15:25:09	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	300	38¢	$114	0x7861e1…
08-03 02:23:17	will wti reach 140 in august 2026	Yes	SELL	4,904	1¢	$49	0x195b55…
08-03 02:00:21	will wti reach 140 in august 2026	Yes	SELL	96	1¢	$1	0x6aae1c…
08-02 20:21:11	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	No	BUY	552	66¢	$364	0x1092b8…
08-02 18:40:26	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	No	BUY	900	66¢	$594	0x410add…
08-02 18:37:54	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	No	BUY	10	66¢	$7	0x063e13…
08-02 16:24:24	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	No	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0x8c19b6…
08-02 15:09:48	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	No	BUY	133	66¢	$88	0x3966f8…
08-02 14:20:06	israel closes its airspace by august 15	Yes	SELL	158	10¢	$16	0xc0a309…
08-02 14:19:33	israel closes its airspace by august 15	Yes	SELL	500	10¢	$50	0x957c7a…
08-02 02:13:39	will wti reach 140 in august 2026	Yes	BUY	1,241	2¢	$25	0x2df54f…
08-02 02:12:36	will wti reach 140 in august 2026	Yes	BUY	3,677	2¢	$74	0x52b61f…
08-02 02:10:47	will wti reach 140 in august 2026	Yes	BUY	82	2¢	$2	0x22c272…
08-02 00:03:03	israel closes its airspace by august 15	Yes	BUY	18	23¢	$4	0x2741dc…
08-02 00:02:21	israel closes its airspace by august 15	Yes	BUY	50	23¢	$12	0x85c449…
08-02 00:01:53	israel closes its airspace by august 15	Yes	BUY	31	23¢	$7	0x31171f…
08-01 23:54:20	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	No	BUY	300	19¢	$57	0x3193a1…
08-01 23:54:00	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	No	BUY	96	19¢	$18	0x66473c…
08-01 23:53:02	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	No	BUY	200	17¢	$34	0x0292c7…
08-01 23:52:48	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	No	BUY	30	21¢	$6	0x89962f…
08-01 22:40:03	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	397	13¢	$52	0x198e04…
08-01 20:36:14	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	SELL	608	97¢	$590	0x7af3cc…
08-01 19:48:51	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	No	BUY	500	37¢	$185	0x22d3c2…
08-01 19:47:06	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	No	BUY	62	37¢	$23	0x8b0ba6…
08-01 19:45:48	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	No	BUY	212	37¢	$78	0x42c467…
08-01 19:40:54	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	No	BUY	6	37¢	$2	0x0ba0dd…
08-01 19:39:20	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	Yes	SELL	200	71¢	$142	0x3e8142…
08-01 19:18:54	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	Yes	BUY	200	68¢	$136	0x080055…
08-01 19:09:59	israel closes its airspace by august 15	Yes	BUY	271	34¢	$92	0xca8b17…
08-01 19:07:05	israel closes its airspace by august 15	Yes	BUY	287	36¢	$104	0x9cb10c…
08-01 19:03:02	will donald trump publicly insult emmanuel macron by july 31 2026 20260626210612731	No	SELL	300	100¢	$299	0xed16a4…
08-01 18:57:54	will donald trump publicly insult tucker carlson by july 31 2026 20260626210612710	Yes	SELL	15	61¢	$9	0xe7cf22…
08-01 18:57:38	will donald trump publicly insult tucker carlson by july 31 2026 20260626210612710	Yes	SELL	145	61¢	$89	0xf779f4…
08-01 18:32:15	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	Yes	BUY	100	93¢	$93	0xa713ce…
08-01 18:16:38	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	Yes	BUY	43	94¢	$40	0xcc0906…
08-01 18:15:23	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	Yes	BUY	57	94¢	$54	0xf6c869…
08-01 16:06:38	will donald trump publicly insult emmanuel macron by july 31 2026 20260626210612731	No	BUY	100	78¢	$78	0xb9fc68…
08-01 16:05:20	will donald trump publicly insult tucker carlson by july 31 2026 20260626210612710	Yes	BUY	93	70¢	$65	0xd40b9b…
08-01 16:05:03	will donald trump publicly insult tucker carlson by july 31 2026 20260626210612710	Yes	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0xd537ad…
08-01 16:04:59	will donald trump publicly insult emmanuel macron by july 31 2026 20260626210612731	No	BUY	91	78¢	$71	0x1d203f…
08-01 16:04:54	will donald trump publicly insult emmanuel macron by july 31 2026 20260626210612731	No	BUY	9	78¢	$7	0x14734b…
08-01 16:04:32	will donald trump publicly insult tucker carlson by july 31 2026 20260626210612710	Yes	BUY	200	71¢	$142	0x21f57f…
08-01 16:02:42	will donald trump publicly insult emmanuel macron by july 31 2026 20260626210612731	No	BUY	100	78¢	$78	0xbc4f52…
08-01 15:26:33	will donald trump publicly insult tucker carlson by july 31 2026 20260626210612710	Yes	BUY	341	78¢	$266	0x0892a2…
07-31 20:05:48	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	BUY	200	36¢	$72	0x8afcd3…
07-31 19:42:03	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	BUY	40	15¢	$6	0x958740…
07-31 19:32:02	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	Yes	SELL	246	1¢	$1	0x4b7634…
07-31 19:29:50	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	Yes	BUY	50	43¢	$22	0x22d75b…
07-31 19:24:56	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	Yes	BUY	0	47¢	$0	0xfe3f78…
07-31 19:24:56	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	Yes	BUY	84	47¢	$40	0xe5d00e…
07-31 19:24:56	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	Yes	BUY	0	47¢	$0	0xc73c5f…
07-31 19:24:56	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	Yes	BUY	0	47¢	$0	0xaaff87…