Reasonable-Paradise — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$45

Unrealized P&L

+$399

Hit rate

98.0%

Resolved

Trades

3,188

lifetime

Volume

$601.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$189

Open exposure

$4.05K

5 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-10 00:29

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Other

42% 75% +$13

Politics

35% 100% +$32

Tech

20% — —

Sports

3% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

81 active days in 12wk • peak 131 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	+3,669	$3,125	86¢	$3.1K	+$12	06-09 15:18
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	-943	$-356	64¢	$-599	$-242	06-10 02:07
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	+276	$44	94¢	$258	+$214	06-10 03:07
Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	+600	$46	6¢	$39	$-7	06-08 22:27
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	+22	$-401	97¢	$22	+$423	06-09 17:28

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	73	$31.4K	15,931	17,418	-1,487	open	—	03-01 01:32
kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	38	$23.6K	9,505	14,519	-5,014	open	—	04-13 13:35
will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	33	$19.3K	10,302	9,475	+827	open	—	03-26 23:26
will google gemini 3 score at least 40 on the frontiermath benchmark	33	$18.1K	11,188	7,223	+3,966	open	—	02-01 05:16
netanyahu out by march 31 854	24	$14.5K	6,200	8,775	-2,575	open	—	03-19 19:00
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	47	$14.2K	7,636	8,624	-988	open	—	04-15 23:20
kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	16	$13.8K	7,400	7,400	+0	open	—	03-27 07:36
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	74	$13.5K	7,418	7,818	-400	open	—	03-10 12:46
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	29	$13.0K	6,044	7,378	-1,335	open	—	04-27 14:37
will iran strike israel on march 6	50	$12.8K	7,266	6,686	+580	open	—	03-10 09:35
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	31	$12.4K	6,247	6,339	-92	open	—	05-20 09:27
gpt 5pt3 released by march 31 2026 735 745 742	60	$12.4K	7,521	6,279	+1,242	open	—	03-01 08:54
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	44	$11.0K	6,371	5,211	+1,160	open	—	04-22 20:20
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	78	$10.8K	9,255	5,230	+4,025	open	—	05-15 20:26
gpt 5pt3 released by january 31 2026	20	$10.3K	5,140	5,566	-426	open	—	02-01 00:16
will google gemini 3 score at least 70 on the frontiermath benchmark	12	$9.9K	4,995	5,195	-200	open	—	01-28 09:34
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	63	$9.6K	5,238	6,446	-1,208	open	—	04-01 09:11
will andr ventura win the 2026 portugal presidential election	43	$9.2K	3,194	6,172	-2,978	open	—	01-29 14:18
will google gemini 3 score at least 40 on humanitys last exam by january 31 459	6	$8.5K	4,301	4,222	+80	open	—	02-01 05:11
gpt 5pt4 released by march 31	3	$8.4K	4,275	4,275	+0	open	—	03-05 18:05
Will Claude go down 6-8 times in April?	98	$8.1K	4,217	4,290	-73	open	—	04-20 13:38
will the us invade venezuela by january 31 2026	48	$8.1K	4,494	4,236	+257	open	—	01-08 10:01
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	8	$7.8K	4,100	4,100	+0	open	—	01-24 18:11
will google gemini 3 score at least 60 on the frontiermath benchmark by	17	$7.8K	4,899	3,077	+1,822	open	—	01-29 05:58
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	36	$7.7K	3,501	4,410	-909	open	—	04-30 20:22
Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	44	$7.2K	3,566	3,954	-388	open	—	05-19 16:31
israeli parliament dissolved by march 31 932	24	$6.7K	3,480	3,393	+87	open	—	03-27 19:54
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	22	$6.5K	3,377	3,500	-123	open	—	04-05 18:50
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	24	$6.3K	2,606	4,054	-1,448	open	—	05-24 06:59
starmer out by june 15 2026	21	$6.2K	3,190	3,166	+24	open	—	06-07 06:35

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-10 03:07:15	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	94¢	$94	0x8d949f…
06-10 03:06:46	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	94¢	$94	0xeea808…
06-10 03:05:48	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	94¢	$94	0x2bb7c3…
06-10 03:05:33	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	86	94¢	$81	0xad047e…
06-10 02:27:25	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	170	94¢	$160	0x1342b5…
06-10 02:07:40	Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	SELL	4	64¢	$3	0xe49648…
06-10 00:29:06	Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	SELL	78	64¢	$50	0x8f2920…
06-10 00:24:40	Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	SELL	8	64¢	$5	0x4b60d7…
06-09 23:32:54	makerfield by election restore britain receives 10 20260609002937160	No	BUY	20	65¢	$13	0xb6be55…
06-09 17:33:37	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	420	97¢	$407	0x202eb0…
06-09 17:33:36	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	607	96¢	$583	0x7a4984…
06-09 17:33:28	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	444	96¢	$427	0x79ce56…
06-09 17:28:28	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	90	98¢	$88	0xe40aea…
06-09 17:28:28	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	94	98¢	$91	0xbb3771…
06-09 17:28:28	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	98¢	$98	0x98944b…
06-09 17:28:28	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	98¢	$98	0x1a5e4f…
06-09 17:27:31	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	220	91¢	$200	0x348ff4…
06-09 17:19:13	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	91¢	$27	0x746e1b…
06-09 15:29:09	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	99¢	$197	0xdf64dd…
06-09 15:29:09	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	1¢	$14	0xdf64dd…
06-09 15:18:10	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	500	82¢	$410	0x6b3f70…
06-09 15:17:45	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	369	83¢	$306	0xc01cc5…
06-09 11:32:48	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	98¢	$6	0x830437…
06-09 11:19:00	will claude 5 be released by june 12 2026	Yes	SELL	642	85¢	$546	0x0fabed…
06-09 11:10:21	will claude 5 be released by june 12 2026	Yes	SELL	353	85¢	$300	0xa2a775…
06-09 10:53:58	will claude 5 be released by june 12 2026	Yes	SELL	5	85¢	$4	0x07a29b…
06-09 10:20:16	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	240	94¢	$226	0x66f69a…
06-09 10:17:24	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	94¢	$56	0x040624…
06-09 09:59:46	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	94¢	$188	0x9c7e54…
06-09 09:58:06	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	94¢	$189	0xb537a3…
06-09 09:55:16	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	172	94¢	$163	0xe349ee…
06-09 09:53:55	makerfield by election restore britain receives 10 20260609002937160	No	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0x617ce7…
06-09 09:40:45	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	28	94¢	$26	0x8210f2…
06-09 09:34:30	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	128	95¢	$121	0xf6ab1d…
06-09 09:32:16	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	95¢	$14	0xbdbe71…
06-09 09:23:16	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	95¢	$9	0xa1bb7a…
06-09 09:13:43	makerfield by election restore britain receives 10 20260609002937160	No	BUY	200	81¢	$162	0xc1958d…
06-09 09:12:57	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x3f8d99…
06-09 09:10:03	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	95¢	$190	0x669b2d…
06-09 09:04:54	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	95¢	$8	0xbc1225…
06-09 09:01:52	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	32	95¢	$30	0x399d0b…
06-09 08:57:24	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x988604…
06-09 08:57:16	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x7dbca7…
06-09 08:57:13	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x3c7e61…
06-09 08:54:22	will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	No	BUY	200	31¢	$62	0xfaa82b…
06-09 08:52:48	will claude 5 be released by june 12 2026	Yes	BUY	1,000	80¢	$800	0xc0ef2b…
06-09 08:52:22	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	95¢	$11	0x062ac9…
06-09 08:52:00	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	144	95¢	$136	0x4eb6a5…
06-09 08:50:55	will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	Yes	BUY	200	68¢	$136	0xc9844b…
06-09 08:48:24	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	94¢	$189	0xd6e5c5…
06-09 05:40:37	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	97¢	$97	0xcbb4be…
06-09 05:40:37	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	98¢	$98	0x86d39f…
06-09 05:40:36	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	156	90¢	$141	0xffe715…
06-09 05:33:37	Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	SELL	8	60¢	$5	0xc66d64…
06-09 04:17:10	Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	SELL	16	60¢	$9	0x3ae598…
06-09 03:57:22	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	94	90¢	$84	0x6ae988…
06-09 00:16:07	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	72	84¢	$60	0x6e46e3…
06-09 00:16:01	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	428	84¢	$360	0x836a3f…
06-08 23:10:27	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	200	85¢	$170	0xe579c1…
06-08 22:27:00	Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	400	6¢	$24	0x02d001…
06-08 15:14:25	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	500	85¢	$425	0xe74774…
06-08 09:03:07	Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	SELL	20	74¢	$15	0x2d84d9…
06-08 09:03:01	Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	SELL	60	75¢	$45	0x5aa6eb…
06-08 05:22:15	Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	SELL	749	30¢	$225	0x4fd004…
06-07 06:35:34	starmer out by june 15 2026	No	SELL	569	99¢	$562	0x65a4d7…
06-06 13:42:22	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	58	76¢	$44	0x1da3cd…
06-05 09:57:10	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	500	86¢	$430	0x746106…
06-05 07:34:22	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	76¢	$3	0xe89c21…
06-05 06:54:39	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	500	87¢	$435	0x8bccb3…
06-04 23:37:06	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	38	76¢	$29	0x1751de…
06-04 20:22:16	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	98¢	$98	0x4a5ee3…
06-04 20:22:16	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	98¢	$98	0x42ec54…
06-04 20:22:16	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	98¢	$98	0x235adf…
06-04 18:17:39	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	500	88¢	$440	0x8c3df8…
06-04 17:44:54	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	70¢	$70	0xb4c5c3…
06-04 17:37:25	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	100	89¢	$89	0x8616b6…
06-04 17:31:01	starmer out by june 15 2026	No	BUY	200	98¢	$195	0x49d5a2…
06-04 17:16:28	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	0	89¢	$0	0xab448c…
06-04 16:05:01	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	98¢	$98	0xaf6f89…
06-04 10:44:40	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	85¢	$85	0xbad1bd…
06-04 10:42:18	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	44	86¢	$38	0x1be2b6…
06-04 10:35:16	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	56	86¢	$48	0xdfa68c…
06-04 10:34:55	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	62	87¢	$54	0x87904f…
06-04 10:27:13	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	38	87¢	$33	0x19007a…
06-04 10:26:21	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	42	88¢	$37	0x90f9eb…
06-04 10:26:19	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	58	88¢	$51	0xb9f63a…
06-04 10:26:15	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	89¢	$89	0x2ff2b9…
06-04 08:22:58	spy up or down on june 4 2026	Down	SELL	198	69¢	$137	0x6c3cdb…
06-04 08:22:03	spy up or down on june 4 2026	Down	SELL	2	69¢	$1	0xc04d0e…
06-04 04:11:39	spy up or down on june 4 2026	Down	BUY	51	67¢	$34	0xf094d6…
06-04 04:11:39	spy up or down on june 4 2026	Down	BUY	49	67¢	$33	0xd54687…
06-04 04:11:36	spy up or down on june 4 2026	Down	BUY	51	67¢	$34	0x522c56…
06-03 21:56:03	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	97¢	$97	0x25f9b5…
06-03 20:53:03	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0x43dec0…
06-03 20:43:21	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	95	90¢	$86	0xc88bb1…
06-03 19:38:22	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	41	91¢	$37	0x455fcc…
06-03 19:15:51	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	90	97¢	$88	0x276ca5…
06-03 19:00:12	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	110	97¢	$107	0xdba5ac…
06-03 18:55:58	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	91¢	$3	0x2af969…
06-03 18:55:55	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0x1e9b5b…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Hideous-Racer 0xc8ab…6418	142	$44.9M	54,759	06-09 23:32
Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71	132	$1.60M	24,478	06-10 04:39
Faraway-Seaside 0xf0b0…8cab	124	$573.7K	43,588	06-01 05:34
Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71	120	$14.5K	2,571	06-09 11:37
Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24	112	$63.2K	5,788	06-09 19:19
Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3	108	$296.5K	1,813	06-09 01:51
Naive-Waterwheel 0x10b2…4ceb	106	$61.1K	2,789	06-09 16:40
(anonymous) 0xd6ee…37a2	98	$164.1K	14,493	03-28 07:58