Sturdy-Lighting — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$105

Unrealized P&L

-$169

Hit rate

56.1%

Resolved

Trades

4,011

lifetime

Volume

$392.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$98

Open exposure

$740

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 07-20 14:21

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Politics

59% 67% +$62

Sports

21% 100% +$42

Other

19% — —

Crypto

1% — —

Pop-Culture

1% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

51 active days in 12wk • peak 92 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Ledger IPO before 2027?	No		-539	$-300	92¢	$-493	$-193	06-28 02:50
Jonathan Majors as Kang?	No		-280	$-271	88¢	$-246	+$24	06-28 02:11

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	121	$27.3K	20,211	20,263	-52	open	—	06-19 21:04
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	17	$19.4K	9,949	9,949	+0	open	—	03-01 05:45
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 21 2026	73	$16.1K	31,839	8,280	+23,559	open	—	04-21 11:29
will i like it be played at the super bowl halftime show	129	$13.6K	11,919	11,896	+23	open	—	02-09 01:33
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	61	$11.3K	10,893	12,137	-1,244	open	—	05-29 21:00
will cardi b perform during the super bowl lx halftime show	56	$10.5K	8,598	8,598	+0	open	—	02-09 02:21
nfl hou ne 2026 01 18	11	$10.4K	5,385	5,385	+0	open	—	01-18 23:09
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	29	$10.2K	11,148	11,148	+0	open	—	04-22 02:26
nfl la chi 2026 01 18	4	$9.3K	5,458	4,328	+1,130	open	—	01-19 04:20
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	27	$8.7K	10,552	9,552	+1,000	open	—	04-07 23:16
Chirayu Rana sued?	5	$8.3K	4,809	4,809	+0	open	—	05-20 02:03
will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	18	$7.9K	4,994	4,994	+0	open	—	06-18 20:30
nba mil atl 2026 01 19	2	$7.8K	4,050	4,050	+0	open	—	01-19 20:41
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	15	$7.7K	4,000	4,000	+0	open	—	02-28 19:42
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	24	$7.4K	14,532	14,532	+0	open	—	05-30 21:03
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	14	$6.4K	4,930	4,930	+0	open	—	03-05 17:48
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	17	$6.2K	3,477	3,477	+0	open	—	01-30 05:03
will alex honnold free solo taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 1 hour and 15 minutes 281	12	$6.2K	4,245	1,986	+2,259	open	—	01-25 02:22
will trump say smart or high iq during the black history month reception	5	$5.6K	3,000	3,000	+0	open	—	02-18 21:52
Will Bryan Johnson have sex again this month?	10	$5.3K	2,826	2,826	+0	open	—	04-30 03:12
will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	36	$5.1K	5,007	5,007	+0	open	—	04-21 21:16
will trump say the state of the union is strong during the 2026 state of the union address 924	5	$4.4K	2,298	2,298	+0	open	—	02-25 04:45
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	5	$4.3K	4,000	4,000	+0	open	—	06-09 16:40
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	32	$3.9K	4,826	4,826	+0	Yes	$-63	03-17 20:03
will iran announce a new supreme leader on march 8 2026	3	$3.9K	2,000	2,000	+0	open	—	03-08 22:14
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	28	$3.9K	2,510	2,510	+0	open	—	04-02 00:28
cbb drexel tows 2026 01 19	1	$3.8K	5,317	0	+5,317	open	—	01-19 19:06
nfl lac ne 2026 01 11	3	$3.4K	1,729	1,729	+0	open	—	01-12 04:07
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 20 2026	10	$3.3K	3,070	3,070	+0	open	—	04-20 17:17
nfl sf sea 2026 01 17	7	$3.1K	3,403	0	+3,403	open	—	01-18 03:16

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-20 14:21:54	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	16	35¢	$6	0xf6f614…
07-20 14:21:04	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	984	35¢	$344	0x2db6df…
07-20 14:03:07	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	713	36¢	$257	0x1dc2f1…
07-20 14:03:04	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	487	36¢	$175	0x5071c1…
07-20 13:23:22	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	400	62¢	$248	0xeb9c43…
07-20 12:54:31	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	400	59¢	$236	0xc5ba0f…
07-20 12:27:21	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	343	50¢	$172	0xda767c…
07-20 12:26:13	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	0	50¢	$0	0x40b300…
07-20 12:25:52	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	57	50¢	$28	0x689a25…
07-19 03:22:10	iran military action against a gulf state on july 15 20260708212322940	No	SELL	645	50¢	$323	0xabda4f…
07-18 00:13:51	iran military action against a gulf state on july 15 20260708212322940	No	BUY	3	26¢	$1	0xa54262…
07-18 00:13:42	iran military action against a gulf state on july 15 20260708212322940	No	BUY	1	26¢	$0	0xeaec71…
07-18 00:13:42	iran military action against a gulf state on july 15 20260708212322940	No	BUY	1	26¢	$0	0x99860c…
07-18 00:13:36	iran military action against a gulf state on july 15 20260708212322940	No	BUY	34	26¢	$9	0x6834ae…
07-18 00:13:36	iran military action against a gulf state on july 15 20260708212322940	No	BUY	1	27¢	$0	0x16ed4e…
07-18 00:13:36	iran military action against a gulf state on july 15 20260708212322940	No	BUY	6	26¢	$2	0x05fa21…
07-18 00:10:36	iran military action against a gulf state on july 15 20260708212322940	No	BUY	49	27¢	$13	0xe7d0e1…
07-18 00:10:28	iran military action against a gulf state on july 15 20260708212322940	No	BUY	50	36¢	$18	0x3a5c62…
07-07 17:41:52	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	1,000	6¢	$60	0xf0b1f3…
07-06 23:05:22	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	1,000	15¢	$150	0x172379…
07-06 21:22:05	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	693	78¢	$540	0xef0f5b…
07-06 21:22:05	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	50	78¢	$39	0x0f763b…
07-06 21:22:04	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	1,056	78¢	$824	0xf6de03…
07-06 21:22:02	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	22	78¢	$17	0x96ae95…
07-06 21:22:01	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	142	78¢	$111	0xfca298…
07-06 21:22:01	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	10	78¢	$8	0xe74ca7…
07-06 21:22:01	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	10	78¢	$8	0x76e21e…
07-06 21:22:01	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	10	78¢	$8	0x6e348b…
07-06 21:07:16	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	1,000	29¢	$292	0xfbe8d5…
07-05 16:52:08	will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on july 4 20260626160825418	Yes	SELL	7	37¢	$3	0x4f4916…
07-05 16:44:58	will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on july 4 20260626160825418	Yes	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0x3b7e5c…
07-03 04:58:44	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	994	25¢	$248	0x67a300…
07-03 01:29:46	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	485	20¢	$97	0xa88b1c…
07-03 01:17:05	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0x3cf2a9…
07-03 01:17:04	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	490	20¢	$98	0xd0f47e…
06-28 02:50:10	Ledger IPO before 2027?	No	SELL	539	56¢	$300	0xa7c43e…
06-28 02:50:05	confirmed us screwworm case beyond texas by june 30 20260609151517550	Yes	SELL	122	8¢	$10	0x6298b3…
06-28 02:50:02	confirmed us screwworm case beyond texas by august 30 20260609151517551	Yes	SELL	171	28¢	$48	0x55a6a5…
06-28 02:49:58	confirmed us screwworm case beyond texas by december 31 20260609151517553	Yes	SELL	177	23¢	$40	0xf5e389…
06-28 02:49:56	confirmed us screwworm case beyond texas by october 31 20260609151517552	Yes	SELL	151	28¢	$43	0x39a951…
06-28 02:11:05	Jonathan Majors as Kang?	No	SELL	806	92¢	$739	0x787f9c…
06-23 22:43:34	btc updown 5m 1782254400	Down	BUY	56	50¢	$28	0xf62912…
06-23 22:43:34	btc updown 5m 1782254400	Down	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xf050e6…
06-23 22:43:34	btc updown 5m 1782254400	Down	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0xe4f72f…
06-23 22:43:34	btc updown 5m 1782254400	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xd27cdf…
06-23 22:43:34	btc updown 5m 1782254400	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xb9e93b…
06-23 22:43:34	btc updown 5m 1782254400	Down	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x8d383f…
06-23 22:43:34	btc updown 5m 1782254400	Down	BUY	25	50¢	$12	0x81154d…
06-23 22:43:34	btc updown 5m 1782254400	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x7cf7a5…
06-23 22:43:34	btc updown 5m 1782254400	Down	BUY	62	50¢	$31	0x6ecebc…
06-23 22:16:13	btc updown 5m 1782252900	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xb22948…
06-23 22:16:11	btc updown 5m 1782252900	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xed0430…
06-23 22:16:11	btc updown 5m 1782252900	Down	BUY	15	50¢	$8	0xe8dba9…
06-23 22:16:11	btc updown 5m 1782252900	Down	BUY	12	50¢	$6	0xe1904a…
06-23 22:16:11	btc updown 5m 1782252900	Down	BUY	40	50¢	$20	0xe007f3…
06-23 22:16:11	btc updown 5m 1782252900	Down	BUY	25	50¢	$12	0xd305e8…
06-23 22:16:11	btc updown 5m 1782252900	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xd22972…
06-23 22:16:11	btc updown 5m 1782252900	Down	BUY	28	50¢	$14	0xc9b801…
06-23 22:16:11	btc updown 5m 1782252900	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x9d8eb1…
06-23 22:16:11	btc updown 5m 1782252900	Down	BUY	12	50¢	$6	0x9a87a0…
06-23 22:16:11	btc updown 5m 1782252900	Down	BUY	40	50¢	$20	0x8e3c71…
06-23 22:16:11	btc updown 5m 1782252900	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x87a72a…
06-23 22:16:11	btc updown 5m 1782252900	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x7ca43e…
06-23 22:16:11	btc updown 5m 1782252900	Down	BUY	3	50¢	$1	0x7bac89…
06-23 22:16:11	btc updown 5m 1782252900	Down	BUY	28	50¢	$14	0x7afb79…
06-23 22:16:11	btc updown 5m 1782252900	Down	BUY	112	50¢	$56	0x72262b…
06-23 22:16:11	btc updown 5m 1782252900	Down	BUY	30	50¢	$15	0x681248…
06-23 22:16:11	btc updown 5m 1782252900	Down	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x5f6d87…
06-23 22:16:11	btc updown 5m 1782252900	Down	BUY	30	50¢	$15	0x5c4add…
06-23 22:16:11	btc updown 5m 1782252900	Down	BUY	60	50¢	$30	0x5bf9de…
06-23 22:16:11	btc updown 5m 1782252900	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x5b028e…
06-23 22:16:11	btc updown 5m 1782252900	Down	BUY	40	50¢	$20	0x4673f4…
06-23 22:16:11	btc updown 5m 1782252900	Down	BUY	31	50¢	$16	0x3bafe4…
06-23 22:16:11	btc updown 5m 1782252900	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x3750b4…
06-23 22:16:11	btc updown 5m 1782252900	Down	BUY	12	50¢	$6	0x2bd7e4…
06-23 22:16:11	btc updown 5m 1782252900	Down	BUY	156	50¢	$78	0x22a9af…
06-23 22:16:11	btc updown 5m 1782252900	Down	BUY	9	50¢	$5	0x15f0b2…
06-23 22:16:10	btc updown 5m 1782252900	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x76a539…
06-23 22:16:10	btc updown 5m 1782252900	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x6d78ea…
06-23 22:16:10	btc updown 5m 1782252900	Down	BUY	28	50¢	$14	0x5b987b…
06-23 22:16:10	btc updown 5m 1782252900	Down	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x3b988a…
06-23 22:16:10	btc updown 5m 1782252900	Down	BUY	19	50¢	$10	0x31069c…
06-23 22:16:10	btc updown 5m 1782252900	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x05fe8a…
06-23 22:10:40	btc updown 5m 1782252600	Down	BUY	29	50¢	$15	0xeb16f9…
06-23 22:10:40	btc updown 5m 1782252600	Down	BUY	3	50¢	$2	0x47a250…
06-23 22:10:40	btc updown 5m 1782252600	Down	BUY	200	50¢	$100	0x084689…
06-23 22:10:38	btc updown 5m 1782252600	Down	BUY	30	50¢	$15	0xc4f36d…
06-23 22:10:38	btc updown 5m 1782252600	Down	BUY	60	50¢	$30	0x9ef5f0…
06-23 22:10:38	btc updown 5m 1782252600	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x9057ac…
06-23 22:10:38	btc updown 5m 1782252600	Down	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x8319b7…
06-23 22:10:38	btc updown 5m 1782252600	Down	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x78fbfe…
06-23 22:10:38	btc updown 5m 1782252600	Down	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x6d7956…
06-23 22:10:38	btc updown 5m 1782252600	Down	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x68ab56…
06-23 22:10:38	btc updown 5m 1782252600	Down	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x3baa69…
06-23 22:10:37	btc updown 5m 1782252600	Down	BUY	3	50¢	$2	0x4cd454…
06-23 22:05:32	btc updown 5m 1782252300	Down	BUY	200	49¢	$98	0x4ea65f…
06-20 19:46:25	Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?	Yes	SELL	624	9¢	$55	0x2c302d…
06-19 21:04:05	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	5,153	92¢	$4,741	0xe9de56…
06-19 21:03:58	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	14	92¢	$13	0x79cc4f…
06-19 21:03:52	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	4,833	92¢	$4,446	0x4b0e80…