Bare-Mambo — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$8.22K

Unrealized P&L

+$243

Hit rate

70.8%

Resolved

193

Trades

1,024

lifetime

Volume

$818.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$799

Open exposure

$10.1K

10 positions

First seen

2026-03-08

last 10-28 02:22

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 82 days

Categories

Other

59% 69% +$263

Politics

41% 63% -$8,486

Sports

0% 0% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

25 active days in 12wk • peak 22 trades/day

Open positions (10) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	+5,936	$5,680	94¢	$5.5K	-$130	10-28 07:22
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	+2,710	$2,616	95¢	$2.6K	-$45	10-28 02:11
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	No	+1,968	$1,527	99¢	$2.0K	+$424	10-28 07:01
China x Japan military clash before 2027?	No	-24	-$21	96¢	$-23	-$1	05-20 08:45
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+5	$3	68¢	$3	+$0	10-11 10:15
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+5	$2	44¢	$2	+$0	10-26 11:12
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+5	$2	38¢	$2	+$0	10-26 11:12
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+5	$2	36¢	$2	$0	10-26 11:12
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	+5	$1	1¢	$0	-$1	05-26 23:06
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	+5	$4	1¢	$0	-$4	10-27 11:41

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	16	$105.7K	54,640	54,640	+0	No	+$2,806	05-24 08:55
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	14	$39.3K	30,989	30,984	+5	No	-$4,836	05-24 13:44
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	44	$37.0K	20,815	20,815	+0	No	+$4,256	09-29 13:43
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	26	$34.8K	35,807	910	+34,897	No	+$1,857	05-30 04:56
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	11	$33.3K	25,216	25,216	-0	Yes	-$4,948	06-05 02:11
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	12	$33.2K	25,087	25,087	+0	No	-$1,855	05-24 10:38
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	6	$30.9K	32,628	0	+32,628	No	+$1,740	04-18 14:21
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	22	$30.6K	16,903	16,903	+0	No	+$2,119	06-01 05:36
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	35	$24.8K	31,656	31,604	+52	No	-$238	06-26 08:52
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	13	$23.0K	13,102	11,134	+1,968	open	—	10-28 07:01
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	9	$22.8K	14,895	14,895	-0	Yes	+$1,435	06-23 09:56
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	6	$22.2K	11,690	11,690	+0	No	-$300	05-14 14:36
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	13	$20.8K	0	28,032	-28,032	No	-$7,237	05-04 21:38
Will the Green Party win the most council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	5	$19.9K	10,046	10,046	+0	No	+$173	05-09 16:08
starmer out by june 15 2026	12	$17.7K	9,030	9,030	-0	No	+$217	06-08 11:28
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	33	$16.5K	8,724	8,724	+0	No	+$432	06-16 15:41
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	7	$15.0K	8,014	8,014	+0	open	—	10-27 11:12
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?	17	$14.5K	14,950	0	+14,950	Yes	+$473	05-04 07:37
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	3	$14.3K	7,897	7,897	+0	No	+$41	05-06 15:12
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	7	$13.8K	7,143	7,142	+0	Yes	+$375	05-11 01:38
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	22	$12.7K	6,956	6,956	+0	No	+$943	09-05 23:09
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?	5	$12.5K	13,064	0	+13,064	No	+$556	04-25 06:50
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	1	$12.0K	13,000	0	+13,000	No	+$988	04-26 13:11
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?	12	$11.8K	12,226	0	+12,226	No	+$386	04-17 11:38
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	3	$11.7K	11,966	0	+11,966	No	+$263	04-14 15:26
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	11	$11.7K	9,045	4,500	+4,545	Yes	+$1,884	06-19 03:42
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	10	$11.2K	5,633	5,633	+0	No	+$1	05-08 23:28
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the next Lima mayoral elections?	13	$9.6K	5,871	5,871	+0	open	—	10-06 06:03
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?	6	$9.2K	9,633	70	+9,563	No	+$361	06-29 15:53
will the all india anna dravida munnetra kazhagam admk win the most seats in the 2026 tamil nadu legislative assembly election	7	$8.1K	8,824	0	+8,824	No	+$693	05-04 01:05

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 07:22:28	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	246	95¢	$234	0x3005a8…
10-28 07:22:26	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	60	95¢	$57	0x3dafbc…
10-28 07:22:05	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	30	95¢	$28	0xd7a794…
10-28 07:22:04	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0x59144f…
10-28 07:22:04	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	360	95¢	$342	0x14d2ba…
10-28 07:17:53	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0x7ec921…
10-28 07:17:50	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	70	95¢	$66	0x3aa85d…
10-28 07:14:52	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	33	95¢	$31	0x5e9cb8…
10-28 07:13:11	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	170	95¢	$161	0x122939…
10-28 07:01:58	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	No	SELL	1,000	99¢	$990	0x5255e5…
10-28 02:22:47	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	15	94¢	$14	0xbd8ed4…
10-28 02:22:03	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	98	94¢	$92	0x6838cf…
10-28 02:22:03	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	262	94¢	$246	0x01d958…
10-28 02:15:32	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	4,354	96¢	$4,179	0x2042c2…
10-28 02:11:33	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	25	96¢	$24	0x8b85b0…
10-28 02:11:33	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	2,685	96¢	$2,591	0x2f63b7…
10-28 02:11:18	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	208	96¢	$200	0x9905c1…
10-27 20:55:57	Will Likud win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	90	12¢	$11	0xcce948…
10-27 13:17:24	Will Likud win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	90	73¢	$66	0x2ea846…
10-27 11:41:26	Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0x5a4439…
10-27 11:12:23	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	8,014	92¢	$7,405	0x40e35e…
10-26 11:16:05	Will Mario Colberth Reyna Rodríguez win the next Trujillo mayoral elections?	Yes	SELL	249	0¢	$0	0xe46b03…
10-26 11:13:47	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,730	95¢	$2,599	0xfd82dc…
10-26 11:13:20	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	440	95¢	$419	0x7e2ed6…
10-26 11:12:44	Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x28b6f6…
10-26 11:12:38	Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x42f1c7…
10-26 11:12:06	Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x4434fd…
10-26 06:27:29	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,440	95¢	$1,368	0xb63e0c…
10-26 06:27:02	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	No	SELL	298	98¢	$294	0x45790d…
10-26 06:25:51	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	No	SELL	1,086	99¢	$1,071	0xe58402…
10-26 05:27:59	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3,118	95¢	$2,962	0xfc6601…
10-26 05:24:05	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	No	SELL	2,235	99¢	$2,207	0x56e790…
10-25 23:06:42	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	4,836	15¢	$731	0xd186ba…
10-25 22:56:15	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	84	22¢	$19	0x471de0…
10-25 22:56:15	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	16	22¢	$4	0x13e8b2…
10-24 09:11:17	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1,799	80¢	$1,432	0xa61bc5…
10-24 09:10:48	Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	1,648	87¢	$1,433	0x1e54fe…
10-24 08:27:51	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1,970	80¢	$1,574	0xa84152…
10-24 08:26:53	Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 20%-30%?	Yes	SELL	853	12¢	$104	0xc13b34…
10-24 08:26:39	Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 10%-20%?	Yes	SELL	853	61¢	$521	0x96e210…
10-24 08:26:03	Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	1,091	87¢	$949	0xe222b2…
10-23 03:27:59	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	86	94¢	$81	0x1be767…
10-23 03:26:36	Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	SELL	187	43¢	$81	0xd5e9f7…
10-23 03:25:30	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	757	77¢	$582	0x3e6541…
10-23 03:24:54	Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	SELL	1,311	44¢	$578	0x860e0a…
10-20 02:16:53	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	86¢	$172	0xab0fed…
10-20 02:14:15	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 21?	Yes	BUY	254	99¢	$251	0xfe7ae7…
10-20 02:13:48	Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 20%-30%?	Yes	BUY	29	47¢	$14	0xfbb463…
10-20 02:12:56	Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 20%-30%?	Yes	BUY	824	42¢	$348	0xf9cc85…
10-20 02:12:24	Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 10%-20%?	Yes	BUY	853	19¢	$159	0xeff69a…
10-20 02:10:47	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 21?	Yes	BUY	1,130	99¢	$1,117	0x4d7410…
10-20 01:58:03	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 21?	Yes	BUY	1,639	99¢	$1,619	0x0d95e0…
10-20 01:35:42	Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	747	88¢	$657	0xd2cfcb…
10-18 07:11:00	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	No	SELL	4,568	95¢	$4,353	0xaa78bd…
10-18 00:22:02	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	410	80¢	$326	0x8db680…
10-18 00:20:18	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	No	SELL	347	95¢	$330	0xab536e…
10-15 08:36:34	Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	569	87¢	$495	0xd8f022…
10-15 08:35:20	Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	SELL	1,037	49¢	$508	0x0dc797…
10-11 10:15:57	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0xb85128…
10-07 00:29:02	Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	146	92¢	$134	0x651d45…
10-06 06:03:09	Will Rafael López Aliaga win the next Lima mayoral elections?	Yes	SELL	2,563	94¢	$2,412	0x188d87…
10-05 23:52:14	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	No	BUY	2,180	95¢	$2,071	0x94b91d…
10-05 23:45:11	Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	2,280	61¢	$1,389	0xe45d89…
10-05 08:55:55	Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	255	61¢	$156	0x709b10…
10-05 08:53:59	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	No	BUY	3,000	94¢	$2,820	0x9986c1…
10-05 06:03:35	Will Rafael López Aliaga win the next Lima mayoral elections?	Yes	SELL	630	90¢	$567	0xebf8f9…
10-05 06:00:11	Will Rafael López Aliaga win the next Lima mayoral elections?	Yes	SELL	610	90¢	$549	0xe28380…
10-05 06:00:01	Will Rafael López Aliaga win the next Lima mayoral elections?	Yes	SELL	10	90¢	$9	0xcf5e0e…
10-05 06:00:01	Will Rafael López Aliaga win the next Lima mayoral elections?	Yes	SELL	18	90¢	$16	0x274ae9…
10-05 05:59:04	Will Rafael López Aliaga win the next Lima mayoral elections?	Yes	SELL	688	90¢	$620	0x670875…
10-05 05:59:02	Will Rafael López Aliaga win the next Lima mayoral elections?	Yes	SELL	51	90¢	$46	0x879f8c…
10-05 05:59:02	Will Rafael López Aliaga win the next Lima mayoral elections?	Yes	SELL	7	90¢	$6	0x5b83c6…
10-05 05:58:29	Will Rafael López Aliaga win the next Lima mayoral elections?	Yes	SELL	600	92¢	$552	0x053a12…
10-05 05:56:50	Will Rafael López Aliaga win the next Lima mayoral elections?	Yes	SELL	23	90¢	$21	0x9a1826…
10-05 05:56:31	Will Rafael López Aliaga win the next Lima mayoral elections?	Yes	SELL	670	90¢	$603	0x3cd750…
10-04 13:12:37	Will Elmano de Freitas win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?	Yes	BUY	482	70¢	$339	0x1c19ef…
10-04 13:11:02	Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1,277	87¢	$1,111	0xfcf86c…
09-29 16:54:21	Will Mauro Mendes win the most votes in the 2026 Mato Grosso Senate election?	Yes	BUY	76	83¢	$63	0xd6d41e…
09-29 16:51:38	Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the most votes in the 2026 Federal District Senate election?	Yes	BUY	23	93¢	$21	0xb715ff…
09-29 16:51:24	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through September 30?	Yes	SELL	93	99¢	$92	0xaebdce…
09-29 16:51:05	Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the most votes in the 2026 Federal District Senate election?	Yes	BUY	1,579	93¢	$1,469	0xa0e84d…
09-29 16:50:33	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	No	SELL	1,600	92¢	$1,472	0x1d963a…
09-29 13:45:45	us x yemen ceasefire continues through october 9	Yes	BUY	10	89¢	$9	0x2bc044…
09-29 13:45:11	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	No	BUY	6,500	93¢	$6,045	0x290dee…
09-29 13:44:12	Flávio Bolsonaro participates in debate before first round?	Yes	BUY	100	83¢	$83	0x56afec…
09-29 13:43:38	us x yemen ceasefire continues through october 9	Yes	BUY	766	87¢	$667	0x77cdd8…
09-29 13:43:12	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	SELL	4,332	100¢	$4,315	0x5da435…
09-29 13:42:47	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	SELL	297	100¢	$296	0xe1d99c…
09-29 13:42:36	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	SELL	802	100¢	$800	0x9f288c…
09-29 13:42:30	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	SELL	294	100¢	$293	0x2b402b…
09-29 13:42:24	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	SELL	1,104	100¢	$1,101	0xfbbf33…
09-29 07:29:53	us x yemen ceasefire continues through october 9	Yes	BUY	640	86¢	$550	0x4eea7f…
09-29 07:29:39	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	SELL	555	100¢	$552	0xff9df8…
09-29 02:38:26	Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0x85f2e2…
09-29 02:38:09	Will Trump endorse Flávio Bolsonaro for President of Brazil?	No	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0x2e2ca7…
09-29 02:38:02	Will Pete Fry win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0x60b941…
09-29 02:36:24	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xc6da78…
09-29 01:14:54	Flávio Bolsonaro participates in debate before first round?	Yes	BUY	466	80¢	$373	0xb00989…
09-29 01:14:39	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	SELL	378	99¢	$375	0x13ec56…
09-28 08:38:20	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	SELL	327	99¢	$325	0x336406…