Sweltering-Loyalty — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2.77K

Unrealized P&L

-$5

Hit rate

52.9%

Resolved

513

Trades

3,618

lifetime

Volume

$65.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$18

Open exposure

$61

4 positions

First seen

2026-05-10

last 10-26 22:37

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 124 days

Categories

Politics

66% 20% +$283

Other

29% 16% -$1,805

Sports

3% 21% -$381

Crypto

2% 5% -$865

Tech

0% 0% $0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

62 active days in 12wk • peak 75 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+200	$20	15¢	$30	+$10	10-25 15:51
foreign intervention in gaza by december 31 775	Yes	+200	$15	12¢	$23	+$8	10-25 10:15
next white house press secretary announced by october 31 2026	Yes	+200	$12	3¢	$6	-$7	10-26 22:34
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	+1,000	$19	0¢	$3	-$16	10-26 22:20

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	74	$3.8K	12,420	12,420	+0	No	-$159	05-29 18:49
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	101	$3.5K	9,571	9,571	+0	Yes	+$310	06-17 14:59
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	82	$3.0K	9,703	9,235	+469	No	+$193	05-26 15:55
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?	63	$2.5K	3,781	3,781	+0	Yes	+$351	05-28 13:29
starmer out by june 22 2026	43	$2.0K	2,489	2,489	+0	Yes	+$102	06-22 08:35
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	48	$1.9K	3,077	3,077	+0	Yes	+$168	06-19 15:36
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	54	$1.7K	8,219	8,219	+0	No	+$157	05-15 10:29
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	44	$1.4K	13,219	13,219	+0	No	+$18	05-22 18:31
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	38	$1.3K	7,360	7,360	+0	No	-$172	06-06 06:04
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	33	$1.3K	2,410	2,410	+0	Yes	+$200	06-20 13:36
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 19 2026 475	19	$1.1K	1,419	1,419	+0	No	+$4	06-18 19:33
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	34	$1.1K	4,948	4,948	+0	No	+$32	06-26 20:29
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	60	$1.0K	6,323	6,323	+0	No	-$100	05-29 18:50
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	31	$907	1,694	1,694	+0	No	+$101	05-29 18:50
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?	37	$870	7,695	7,695	+0	No	-$206	06-30 10:10
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 15 2026	46	$782	11,667	5,667	+6,000	No	-$45	06-18 18:06
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	7	$694	1,528	1,028	+500	Yes	-$191	05-15 23:54
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31?	25	$693	1,677	1,677	+0	No	+$257	05-29 15:38
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	11	$639	706	706	+0	Yes	+$24	06-19 16:19
kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	44	$624	13,233	12,233	+1,000	No	-$44	08-31 10:43
will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	14	$598	1,922	922	+1,000	Yes	+$12	06-19 12:40
israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	28	$568	4,091	4,091	+0	No	-$84	07-09 19:23
will trump agree to iranian enrichment of uranium by june 30	38	$548	4,309	4,309	+0	No	+$9	06-25 22:15
Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	12	$521	2,561	2,561	+0	No	+$21	05-18 06:33
will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	38	$518	4,982	4,982	+0	No	-$6	06-26 20:36
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	47	$503	6,961	6,961	+0	No	-$77	06-26 18:03
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	15	$503	1,527	1,526	+0	No	-$23	06-19 20:08
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	12	$489	1,235	1,235	+0	No	+$1	06-20 13:24
will iran close its airspace by june 14 20260609184136052	14	$485	633	633	+0	No	+$32	06-14 19:08
will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	18	$467	774	774	+0	open	—	07-31 12:19

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 22:37:14	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	104	5¢	$5	0x9e05b2…
10-26 22:34:54	Next White House Press Secretary announced by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	4¢	$4	0x7a4d73…
10-26 22:32:26	Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x45cca8…
10-26 22:29:41	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	20	24¢	$5	0x142b54…
10-26 22:29:21	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	29	24¢	$7	0xf3e63f…
10-26 22:21:29	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	6	30¢	$2	0xbf2faf…
10-26 22:21:12	Next White House Press Secretary announced by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	4¢	$2	0x8cb01f…
10-26 22:20:32	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	26	35¢	$9	0xba2277…
10-26 22:20:17	Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,000	0¢	$5	0x9ac65e…
10-26 22:20:08	Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in Switzerland by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	41	11¢	$4	0xf8001a…
10-26 22:17:27	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	16	26¢	$4	0x7f9e6f…
10-26 22:17:14	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	100	4¢	$4	0x335435…
10-26 21:52:21	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	73	6¢	$5	0x1dbeb9…
10-26 21:11:02	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	24	6¢	$1	0x63290e…
10-26 21:06:09	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	66	8¢	$5	0xed8ceb…
10-26 21:05:53	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	26	19¢	$5	0x5fd448…
10-26 20:53:11	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	26	19¢	$5	0x10c0b2…
10-26 20:52:53	Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	333	0¢	$1	0xe7be8a…
10-26 20:42:08	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	82	10¢	$8	0x6d77b2…
10-26 16:53:57	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	20	9¢	$2	0x830d96…
10-26 16:53:54	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	50	9¢	$4	0x389edb…
10-26 16:53:29	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	30	9¢	$3	0x6b6b6c…
10-26 16:46:50	Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?	Yes	SELL	50	3¢	$1	0xdcfce0…
10-26 16:46:17	Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	6¢	$3	0xe5d003…
10-26 16:46:09	Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	8¢	$8	0x8b3d3d…
10-26 16:38:14	Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?	Yes	BUY	50	3¢	$2	0x203044…
10-26 16:37:47	Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	33	6¢	$2	0x09d638…
10-26 15:07:36	Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	83	6¢	$5	0x6873ff…
10-26 13:12:17	Will Iran join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	121	6¢	$7	0x4185f6…
10-26 11:56:32	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x436a56…
10-26 07:15:35	Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in Switzerland by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	83	18¢	$15	0xc1028f…
10-26 07:15:12	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	150	10¢	$15	0xccd128…
10-25 23:44:05	Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election be 82% or more?	Yes	BUY	70	9¢	$6	0x94ef76…
10-25 23:43:51	Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	103	6¢	$6	0x8885b6…
10-25 23:43:11	Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election be 82% or more?	Yes	BUY	26	8¢	$2	0x689e02…
10-25 23:41:24	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	61	4¢	$2	0xbd05c4…
10-25 23:20:56	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	61	11¢	$7	0x13e375…
10-25 23:20:21	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	50	14¢	$7	0xc33e11…
10-25 23:18:26	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	88	9¢	$8	0x3cd69f…
10-25 23:13:23	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	88	14¢	$12	0x236b53…
10-25 23:08:06	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	100	14¢	$14	0xdcc2ae…
10-25 23:07:12	Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in Switzerland by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	32	17¢	$5	0x4a5d94…
10-25 23:06:48	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	34	16¢	$5	0xc6b2a4…
10-25 23:01:15	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	48	21¢	$10	0x2ec42b…
10-25 22:55:57	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	87	23¢	$20	0xeffdde…
10-25 22:28:54	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No	SELL	70	14¢	$10	0x8bce66…
10-25 22:25:00	Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in Switzerland by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	24	18¢	$4	0x0196b5…
10-25 22:24:12	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No	SELL	30	14¢	$4	0x19b8c3…
10-25 22:12:56	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No	SELL	6	14¢	$1	0x4f92eb…
10-25 21:58:09	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	50	16¢	$8	0x55c179…
10-25 21:57:20	Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	203	9¢	$18	0xa7bdba…
10-25 21:56:57	Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in Switzerland by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	102	18¢	$18	0x6a086e…
10-25 21:55:59	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No	BUY	106	17¢	$18	0x47f27a…
10-25 20:56:23	Next White House Press Secretary announced by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	3¢	$2	0x376b25…
10-25 20:56:14	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	50	14¢	$7	0x8c4ca4…
10-25 20:54:14	Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?	Yes	SELL	100	3¢	$3	0xcd96b8…
10-25 19:03:02	Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	47	1¢	$1	0xe0df10…
10-25 19:02:39	Will Trump rename an ocean by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	5¢	$0	0x4bd0b7…
10-25 17:27:50	Solana Up or Down - October 25, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Up	BUY	77	2¢	$2	0x5541eb…
10-25 17:27:30	Solana Up or Down - October 25, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Up	BUY	118	4¢	$5	0xd8c2a2…
10-25 17:24:53	Solana Up or Down - October 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Down	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xb6fe8b…
10-25 17:23:14	Solana Up or Down - October 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Down	BUY	50	4¢	$2	0x6a1aee…
10-25 17:22:56	Solana Up or Down - October 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Down	BUY	21	5¢	$1	0x550edc…
10-25 16:50:30	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	100	14¢	$14	0x40910b…
10-25 16:47:23	Next White House Press Secretary announced by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	4¢	$4	0x3248a7…
10-25 16:29:02	Will Trump rename an ocean by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	106	7¢	$7	0x50496a…
10-25 16:13:47	Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	357	1¢	$5	0x5e032f…
10-25 16:04:02	Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	714	1¢	$10	0x6cc968…
10-25 15:52:24	Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	301	1¢	$3	0x5bdebc…
10-25 15:51:51	Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x98d054…
10-25 15:51:44	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	50	13¢	$6	0xf4ed90…
10-25 15:51:36	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	50	13¢	$6	0x5682fd…
10-25 15:50:20	Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	675	1¢	$6	0x867d33…
10-25 15:49:59	Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0xbaf7b5…
10-25 15:45:09	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	100	14¢	$14	0xc38c57…
10-25 15:11:18	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	100	13¢	$13	0x3de544…
10-25 14:13:08	Solana Up or Down - October 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	SELL	22	30¢	$7	0x8f131e…
10-25 14:12:14	Solana Up or Down - October 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0x701683…
10-25 14:07:39	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No	SELL	50	11¢	$6	0xeac4a3…
10-25 14:07:02	Solana Up or Down - October 25, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	26	22¢	$6	0x4ea207…
10-25 14:06:38	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	6¢	$6	0x6efff2…
10-25 14:06:30	Solana Up or Down - October 25, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	6	26¢	$2	0x78f038…
10-25 14:05:00	Solana Up or Down - October 25, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xe30eea…
10-25 14:04:54	Solana Up or Down - October 25, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x3d867a…
10-25 14:04:12	Solana Up or Down - October 25, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xd70dd1…
10-25 14:04:03	Solana Up or Down - October 25, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x33f7c3…
10-25 14:03:50	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No	SELL	50	12¢	$6	0x14d12b…
10-25 14:03:20	Solana Up or Down - October 25, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	BUY	22	22¢	$5	0xb55947…
10-25 13:57:51	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No	BUY	100	13¢	$13	0x1f5a53…
10-25 13:36:17	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	7¢	$7	0xd4d0e4…
10-25 13:19:20	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No	SELL	200	11¢	$22	0xae3755…
10-25 12:49:45	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No	BUY	100	12¢	$12	0x6735fe…
10-25 12:40:09	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No	BUY	100	12¢	$12	0x9ba4b7…
10-25 12:33:06	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	100	15¢	$15	0x5c04fb…
10-25 12:30:59	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	100	17¢	$17	0x54463b…
10-25 11:48:36	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	100	18¢	$18	0xd640be…
10-25 10:21:26	Next White House Press Secretary announced by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	3¢	$0	0x890aa2…
10-25 10:15:59	Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?	Yes	SELL	100	3¢	$3	0x4e0609…
10-25 10:15:45	Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?	Yes	SELL	100	5¢	$5	0x5891ce…
10-25 10:00:50	Will the price of Solana be above $95 on October 25?	No	SELL	500	0¢	$2	0x7811d5…