Realized P&L
-$56
Unrealized P&L
+$340
Hit rate
23.9%
Resolved
50
Trades
52,923
lifetime
Volume
$172.5K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$3
Open exposure
$1.72K
30 positions
First seen
2026-02-26
last 06-15 06:52
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 20 days
Categories
Politics
75% 71% +$10
Other
17% 59% $-50
Crypto
7% 75% $-4
Tech
1% 100% +$1
Sports
0% 33% $-14
Pop-Culture
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 1152 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes +656 $368 94¢ $620 +$252 06-15 10:59
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes +802 $168 28¢ $221 +$52 06-15 01:20
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No -142 $-135 96¢ $-136 $-1 06-13 14:54
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No +133 $128 99¢ $132 +$4 06-14 23:45
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No +76 $71 96¢ $73 +$2 06-11 20:24
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes +336 $32 15¢ $50 +$17 06-15 00:53
Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes +55 $47 88¢ $48 +$1 06-12 20:28
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No +48 $35 72¢ $35 $-0 06-15 04:38
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No +34 $33 99¢ $34 +$1 06-15 11:51
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes +69 $32 46¢ $32 $-1 06-11 20:48
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No +35 $32 88¢ $31 $-1 06-12 09:13
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +31 $24 88¢ $27 +$3 06-14 21:45
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes +58 $22 43¢ $25 +$3 06-15 10:15
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No +26 $22 94¢ $24 +$1 06-09 21:16
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? No +24 $22 96¢ $23 +$1 06-13 12:41
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? No -19 $-19 99¢ $-18 +$0 06-14 16:28
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No +18 $16 98¢ $17 +$1 06-15 07:52
Iran leadership change by June 30? No +18 $17 99¢ $17 +$1 06-10 23:06
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No +18 $16 94¢ $17 +$1 06-14 22:28
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes +141 $18 12¢ $16 $-1 06-15 11:52
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No -18 $-15 90¢ $-16 $-1 06-11 02:29
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No +20 $15 78¢ $15 +$0 06-13 14:37
Trump out as President by June 30? No +14 $14 100¢ $14 +$0 06-04 00:57
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No -14 $-13 99¢ $-14 $-0 06-15 07:24
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? No +14 $12 99¢ $13 +$1 06-10 15:28
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? No -12 $-11 97¢ $-11 +$0 06-06 22:10
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No -10 $-10 99¢ $-10 $-0 06-04 00:40
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Yes +27 $9 36¢ $10 +$1 06-02 11:58
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes +9 $7 98¢ $9 +$2 06-14 23:08
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No +9 $7 85¢ $8 +$1 06-15 00:56