Realized P&L
+$3.75K
Unrealized P&L
+$6
Hit rate
58.0%
Resolved
5,445
Trades
116,328
lifetime
Volume
$317.8K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$3
Open exposure
$3.12K
30 positions
First seen
2026-02-26
last 11-01 22:00
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 249 days
Categories
Politics
66% 62% +$3,853
Other
24% 54% -$1,953
Crypto
5% 41% +$3,047
Sports
4% 55% -$1,258
Tech
1% 78% +$64
Pop-Culture
0% 81% -$1
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 1172 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +414 $329 82¢ $341 +$13 10-26 06:08
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No +314 $248 97¢ $303 +$55 10-14 03:14
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +461 $311 64¢ $297 -$14 10-28 08:33
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No +255 $234 94¢ $241 +$7 11-01 15:20
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No +204 $143 74¢ $150 +$7 10-06 19:09
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes +2,669 $217 6¢ $147 -$70 10-25 21:41
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes +212 $82 54¢ $114 +$32 10-27 06:54
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No +163 $106 70¢ $113 +$7 10-31 13:06
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4? Yes +114 $88 92¢ $104 +$16 11-01 22:01
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? Yes +143 $85 66¢ $94 +$9 10-20 05:11
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes +811 $608 12¢ $93 -$515 10-31 08:07
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? Yes +193 $135 42¢ $81 -$53 10-14 05:34
Iran leadership change by December 31? No +90 $74 86¢ $78 +$4 10-24 20:26
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No +80 $72 96¢ $77 +$4 08-21 05:32
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No +79 $76 96¢ $76 $0 10-23 22:00
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? No -78 -$74 96¢ $-75 -$1 09-15 23:33
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No +82 $69 92¢ $75 +$6 09-15 11:18
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? No +83 $67 86¢ $72 +$6 09-29 01:56
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026? No +68 $61 96¢ $65 +$5 09-14 00:48
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No +66 -$373 93¢ $61 +$434 10-10 15:16
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31 671 No +58 $44 88¢ $51 +$7 08-22 19:07
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes +71 $50 70¢ $50 $0 11-01 17:07
Next White House Press Secretary announced by December 31, 2026? No +135 $59 36¢ $48 -$11 10-31 17:23
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes +55 $36 86¢ $47 +$11 11-01 16:43
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes +65 $42 70¢ $46 +$4 10-30 13:38
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? No +78 $25 58¢ $45 +$20 11-01 18:03
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No +45 $43 99¢ $44 +$1 11-01 07:58
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No +45 $40 94¢ $42 +$2 08-18 01:02
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No +44 $37 96¢ $42 +$5 10-18 05:36
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No +43 $25 98¢ $42 +$17 10-29 17:42