Realized P&L
-$227
Unrealized P&L
+$169
Hit rate
38.6%
Resolved
37
Trades
24,589
lifetime
Volume
$330.8K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$13
Open exposure
$2.75K
30 positions
First seen
2026-02-23
last 06-30 12:32
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 15 days
Categories
Politics
47% 14% $-243
Other
40% 50% $-47
Sports
10% 100% +$19
Crypto
2% 80% +$44
Tech
1%
Pop-Culture
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 269 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No +539 $375 100¢ $536 +$162 06-28 06:18
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No +320 $286 100¢ $320 +$33 06-17 09:07
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? No +366 $228 81¢ $298 +$70 06-30 16:37
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No +145 $185 100¢ $145 $-40 06-20 00:35
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes +136 $120 82¢ $112 $-7 06-25 22:14
Iran leadership change by December 31? No -109 $-78 84¢ $-91 $-12 06-03 21:02
Will Russia enter Sumy by December 31, 2026? No -92 $-83 91¢ $-84 $-1 06-02 08:50
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? No +77 $64 100¢ $77 +$12 06-10 14:15
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No +75 $68 100¢ $75 +$7 06-14 22:31
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes -506 $-45 14¢ $-71 $-26 06-16 14:18
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? No -68 $-65 97¢ $-67 $-2 06-24 03:10
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No -72 $-65 90¢ $-65 +$0 06-19 10:42
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30? No -64 $-64 100¢ $-64 $-1 06-28 19:38
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes +175 $69 34¢ $60 $-8 06-29 12:38
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? No +67 $60 89¢ $59 $-1 06-28 15:27
Anthropic IPO before 2027? No -251 $-33 24¢ $-59 $-26 06-01 16:18
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No +74 $50 70¢ $52 +$2 06-19 21:03
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No +50 $45 100¢ $50 +$6 06-16 17:21
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes +176 $60 26¢ $47 $-13 06-24 17:03
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No -53 $-48 86¢ $-46 +$2 06-15 14:59
Will Billie Eilish perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No +47 $45 97¢ $46 +$1 06-30 10:28
Will Beyoncé perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No +47 $45 93¢ $44 $-1 06-29 23:52
Will New York use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? No +45 $40 98¢ $44 +$4 06-04 06:20
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No -66 $-46 66¢ $-43 +$3 06-12 00:44
GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch? No -99 $-55 44¢ $-43 +$12 06-15 17:33
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? No +45 $39 92¢ $41 +$2 05-30 22:42
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes +196 $47 16¢ $32 $-14 06-15 11:03
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? Yes +179 $31 18¢ $32 +$1 06-19 09:11
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? No -30 $-35 99¢ $-30 +$5 06-03 07:39
Kraken IPO closing market cap above $20B? No +27 $21 82¢ $22 +$2 06-04 00:10