Realized P&L
-$227
Unrealized P&L
+$27
Hit rate
38.6%
Resolved
37
Trades
25,981
lifetime
Volume
$364.4K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$14
Open exposure
$2.50K
30 positions
First seen
2026-02-23
last 07-20 22:49
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 15 days
Categories
Politics
47% 14% $-243
Other
40% 50% $-47
Sports
10% 100% +$19
Crypto
2% 80% +$44
Tech
2%
Pop-Culture
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 198 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No +342 $317 90¢ $306 $-11 07-13 19:59
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? Yes +339 $165 68¢ $229 +$64 07-06 01:43
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No +210 $193 99¢ $208 +$14 07-11 15:02
Trump out as President before 2027? No +151 $140 92¢ $139 $-1 07-14 12:05
Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? No +154 $107 70¢ $108 +$1 07-06 01:22
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? No +286 $117 32¢ $93 $-24 07-20 13:58
Will Russia enter Sumy by December 31, 2026? No -92 $-83 92¢ $-85 $-2 06-02 08:50
Anthropic IPO before 2027? No -251 $-33 34¢ $-84 $-52 06-01 16:18
Iran leadership change by December 31? No -109 $-78 76¢ $-83 $-5 06-03 21:02
China x Japan military clash before 2027? No +77 $70 94¢ $72 +$2 07-19 09:44
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No +80 $70 86¢ $70 $-0 07-11 01:01
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No +74 $70 94¢ $69 $-1 07-05 00:41
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? Yes +120 $60 57¢ $68 +$9 07-12 07:25
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? No -68 $-65 98¢ $-67 $-2 06-24 03:10
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Yes +93 $58 70¢ $65 +$8 07-19 20:00
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes +194 $60 34¢ $65 +$5 07-16 02:57
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No -72 $-65 90¢ $-65 +$0 06-19 10:42
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No +74 $50 80¢ $58 +$8 06-19 21:03
Will XRP reach $5.00 by December 31, 2026? No -60 $-59 97¢ $-58 +$1 07-14 03:50
Will any AI model reach 1550 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? Yes +63 $16 84¢ $53 +$38 07-08 16:45
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? Yes -122 $-51 40¢ $-49 +$2 07-14 08:58
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? No +56 $50 86¢ $48 $-3 07-13 12:44
Will any AI model reach 1550 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? No +300 $93 16¢ $46 $-47 07-20 04:45
Will Jared Polis announce a Presidential run before 2027? No +50 $47 92¢ $46 $-0 07-01 20:09
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes +196 $34 24¢ $46 +$12 07-19 13:50
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No -66 $-46 68¢ $-44 +$2 06-12 00:44
Will New York use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? No +45 $40 96¢ $43 +$3 06-04 06:20
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes -506 $-45 $-43 +$2 06-16 14:18
Pacifica FDV above $300M one day after launch? No +47 $40 89¢ $42 +$2 07-19 10:22
Will Solana reach $180 by December 31, 2026? No +46 $40 90¢ $42 +$2 07-01 03:13