Realized P&L
-$73.5K
Unrealized P&L
+$6.67K
Hit rate
30.1%
Resolved
9
Trades
5,741
lifetime
Volume
$5.72M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$997
Open exposure
$200.3K
24 positions
First seen
2026-04-01
last 07-21 05:17
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 6 days
Categories
Other
52%
75%
$-5,698
Politics
43%
60%
$-67,841
Crypto
4%
—
—
Tech
1%
—
—
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
81 active days in 12wk
• peak 639 trades/day
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | No | +43,000 | $36,280 | 92¢ | $39.3K | +$3,065 | 07-01 07:14 | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | +35,999 | $32,129 | 90¢ | $32.2K | +$90 | 07-17 17:57 | |
| Will GameStop acquire eBay? | No | +23,449 | $19,662 | 86¢ | $20.0K | +$387 | 06-15 13:09 | |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | +18,000 | $16,380 | 94¢ | $17.0K | +$630 | 07-10 20:33 | |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | No | +17,497 | $14,548 | 88¢ | $15.3K | +$762 | 07-14 19:46 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | No | +15,000 | $14,250 | 99¢ | $14.8K | +$555 | 07-12 02:25 | |
| Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? | No | +14,000 | $11,774 | 89¢ | $12.4K | +$672 | 06-07 18:23 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | +15,000 | $11,550 | 74¢ | $11.2K | $-375 | 07-13 11:59 | |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? | No | +10,580 | $10,275 | 98¢ | $10.3K | +$57 | 07-12 05:35 | |
| Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? | No | +9,674 | $5,040 | 57¢ | $5.6K | +$522 | 06-29 14:50 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | No | +9,772 | $3,510 | 44¢ | $4.3K | +$838 | 07-12 09:27 | |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | No | +5,000 | $4,300 | 78¢ | $3.9K | $-375 | 06-23 19:55 | |
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | No | +5,000 | $2,600 | 52¢ | $2.6K | +$25 | 07-06 15:18 | |
| New pandemic in 2026? | No | +2,425 | $2,256 | 94¢ | $2.3K | +$12 | 07-21 05:17 | |
| SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026? | No | +2,200 | $1,822 | 90¢ | $2.0K | +$147 | 07-16 22:56 | |
| Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends? | No | +2,720 | $1,605 | 64¢ | $1.7K | +$136 | 07-15 14:05 | |
| Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? | Yes | -1,576 | $-1,450 | 97¢ | $-1527 | $-77 | 06-07 01:51 | |
| Trump declares election interference national emergency? | No | +1,832 | $1,414 | 74¢ | $1.3K | $-67 | 07-18 09:03 | |
| Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? | Yes | +9,000 | $1,324 | 11¢ | $999 | $-325 | 07-04 02:46 | |
| Kash Patel out by December 31? | Yes | +2,000 | $920 | 37¢ | $740 | $-180 | 07-13 16:40 | |
| GOP uses 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by December 31, 2026? | No | +390 | $332 | 86¢ | $334 | +$2 | 07-14 13:54 | |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | Yes | +737 | $155 | 22¢ | $158 | +$4 | 07-10 23:48 | |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | Yes | +117 | $-153 | 8¢ | $9 | +$162 | 07-14 03:07 | |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? | No | +9 | $8 | 85¢ | $8 | +$0 | 06-28 23:42 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| alien abduction at brazil vs scotland game in miami 20260624221224553 | 10 | $839.2K | 420,000 | 420,000 | +0 | open | — | 06-25 03:06 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | 93 | $447.6K | 403,964 | 50,000 | +353,964 | open | — | 04-08 03:14 |
| us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129 | 26 | $212.7K | 171,000 | 50,000 | +121,000 | open | — | 06-18 00:12 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | 46 | $205.0K | 119,201 | 105,968 | +13,232 | open | — | 06-01 00:43 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | 85 | $171.1K | 59,789 | 114,356 | -54,567 | open | — | 06-17 23:52 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? | 87 | $152.0K | 73,846 | 81,061 | -7,216 | open | — | 05-18 07:48 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | 14 | $146.1K | 147,003 | 0 | +147,003 | open | — | 06-03 21:20 |
| us and iran sign an agreement by june 15 2026 20260611221049851 | 22 | $134.9K | 135,252 | 0 | +135,252 | open | — | 06-18 00:03 |
| us x iran ceasefire by april 7 | 36 | $110.6K | 113,046 | 35,046 | +78,000 | open | — | 04-08 23:36 |
| Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? | 76 | $99.5K | 83,772 | 20,000 | +63,772 | open | — | 07-02 17:05 |
| will the virginia redistricting referendum pass | 22 | $95.0K | 95,354 | 0 | +95,354 | open | — | 04-21 23:56 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | 49 | $86.3K | 72,923 | 20,000 | +52,923 | open | — | 06-01 00:37 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | 116 | $83.4K | 77,104 | 36,094 | +41,010 | open | — | 04-25 13:56 |
| us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026 | 33 | $82.2K | 107,993 | 30,654 | +77,339 | open | — | 04-30 22:23 |
| Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? | 59 | $78.1K | 59,000 | 19,528 | +39,472 | open | — | 05-15 06:09 |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | 136 | $77.1K | 38,954 | 38,953 | +1 | open | — | 04-23 01:08 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | 15 | $74.3K | 38,479 | 38,479 | +0 | open | — | 04-28 07:38 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? | 32 | $73.0K | 37,633 | 37,633 | +0 | open | — | 05-04 18:45 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | 43 | $66.3K | 69,714 | 0 | +69,714 | Yes | $-66,300 | 05-08 02:13 |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | 49 | $62.5K | 54,964 | 31,502 | +23,462 | open | — | 04-16 03:35 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | 24 | $52.6K | 39,023 | 15,000 | +24,023 | open | — | 06-15 01:26 |
| Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? | 21 | $52.6K | 46,544 | 8,199 | +38,345 | open | — | 05-13 21:53 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? | 17 | $51.7K | 45,000 | 9,000 | +36,000 | open | — | 06-15 19:26 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | 147 | $50.9K | 30,920 | 30,920 | +0 | open | — | 04-10 05:45 |
| kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31 | 5 | $49.0K | 51,000 | 0 | +51,000 | open | — | 07-08 09:35 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | 23 | $47.1K | 24,000 | 24,000 | +0 | open | — | 04-27 17:37 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? | 139 | $46.7K | 24,894 | 24,893 | +1 | open | — | 04-29 06:33 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | 81 | $46.3K | 24,000 | 23,889 | +111 | open | — | 05-20 22:02 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? | 27 | $45.8K | 23,310 | 23,310 | +0 | open | — | 04-22 09:27 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | 7 | $43.8K | 52,000 | 0 | +52,000 | open | — | 07-01 07:14 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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