Realized P&L
+$78.8K
Unrealized P&L
+$20.9K
Hit rate
85.9%
Resolved
2,245
Trades
36,373
lifetime
Volume
$13.5M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$371
Open exposure
$188.1K
30 positions
First seen
2026-04-01
last 10-29 14:47
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 174 days
Categories
Politics
56% 66% -$67,782
Other
42% 62% +$171,993
Crypto
2% 46% -$25,086
Tech
1% 56% -$62
Pop-Culture
0% 57% -$29
Sports
0% 67% -$215
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 638 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes -50,000 -$17,900 38¢ $-19150 -$1,250 06-19 05:54
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes -13,800 -$10,158 97¢ $-13414 -$3,255 06-03 13:12
Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond? No +19,818 $14,595 64¢ $12.7K -$1,902 10-28 23:09
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes +23,313 $9,329 52¢ $12.0K +$2,677 10-29 15:47
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? No +9,000 $6,163 98¢ $8.8K +$2,630 09-25 13:55
Trump out as President before 2027? No -9,000 -$8,100 96¢ $-8617 -$517 05-18 07:30
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No -9,000 -$11,996 94¢ $-8505 +$3,491 09-16 19:04
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31? No +8,624 $5,539 96¢ $8.3K +$2,761 10-24 08:07
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes -50,000 -$4,450 16¢ $-8125 -$3,675 05-12 18:16
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes -49,298 -$13,015 16¢ $-8011 +$5,004 05-03 16:10
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? No +8,171 $1,063 95¢ $7.7K +$6,675 10-10 01:26
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes -50,000 -$4,200 15¢ $-7725 -$3,525 06-09 20:10
No one announced as next James Bond? Yes +33,896 $6,961 22¢ $7.5K +$564 10-26 03:11
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No -9,000 -$11,160 82¢ $-7425 +$3,735 09-12 21:20
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No +17,807 $5,355 36¢ $6.4K +$1,055 09-17 03:22
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No -6,785 -$5,147 78¢ $-5259 -$111 10-21 17:25
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond? No +5,476 $4,306 79¢ $4.3K +$36 08-21 04:08
Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? No +6,842 $2,660 50¢ $3.4K +$761 08-06 21:02
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes -50,000 -$4,478 6¢ $-3000 +$1,478 09-17 15:09
Will Oura's market cap be between $7.5B and $10B at market close on IPO day? No +2,832 $2,478 100¢ $2.8K +$341 08-27 02:04
Will Oura's market cap be less than $7.5B at market close on IPO day? No +2,832 $2,361 99¢ $2.8K +$444 09-07 01:30
Will Oura's market cap be between $10B and $12.5B at market close on IPO day? No +2,832 $1,752 99¢ $2.8K +$1,051 09-07 02:17
Will Morgan Wallen be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026? Yes +2,808 $2,081 91¢ $2.6K +$484 09-23 02:00
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes -50,000 -$2,250 5¢ $-2500 -$250 05-05 04:49
Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice? No +2,629 $1,840 94¢ $2.5K +$644 10-24 08:21
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes -50,000 -$2,500 5¢ $-2475 +$25 07-10 15:28
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day? No +2,991 $2,329 78¢ $2.3K -$1 10-29 10:43
Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections? Yes +7,618 $1,138 30¢ $2.3K +$1,186 10-11 02:40
Will Francis James Allison Oyague win the next Lima mayoral elections? No +2,400 $1,909 96¢ $2.3K +$404 08-11 07:32
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? No +3,240 $2,287 69¢ $2.2K -$51 10-29 09:50