Complete-Referendum 0x3c593a…011766
whale hot 6W streak
← all wallets
Realized P&L
+$172.7K
Unrealized P&L
+$15.3K
Hit rate
66.7%
Resolved
373
Trades
8,529
lifetime
Volume
$3.32M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$390
Open exposure
$184.8K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 10-26 20:51
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 148 days
Categories
Politics
55% 53% +$200,385
Other
38% 51% -$72,657
Crypto
3% 50% +$21,757
Tech
2% 66% +$19,436
Sports
1% 44% +$3,813
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
69 active days in 12wk • peak 210 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes +45,229 $30,100 100¢ $45.2K +$15,084 10-26 20:51
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No -40,575 -$37,308 82¢ $-33069 +$4,239 10-23 17:31
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? No +15,896 $9,237 91¢ $14.5K +$5,275 10-02 10:57
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No +25,449 $9,257 56¢ $14.1K +$4,867 10-18 13:01
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +15,555 $10,089 72¢ $11.3K +$1,189 10-04 16:44
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +12,068 $7,456 90¢ $10.8K +$3,345 10-25 23:08
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes +19,589 $7,491 55¢ $10.8K +$3,283 10-22 13:29
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No +8,888 $6,177 70¢ $6.2K $0 10-25 11:56
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes +8,888 $6,133 68¢ $6.1K -$44 10-25 13:45
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No +8,888 $5,333 64¢ $5.7K +$400 10-09 19:07
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes +4,492 $2,694 87¢ $3.9K +$1,194 10-14 21:18
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? No +3,798 $2,907 94¢ $3.6K +$659 10-02 05:30
Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? Yes +3,990 $2,723 84¢ $3.3K +$609 10-25 15:05
Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? No +3,812 $2,637 84¢ $3.2K +$547 10-21 11:00
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? Yes +51,195 $12,743 6¢ $2.8K -$9,927 10-11 15:54
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? No +2,802 $2,262 94¢ $2.6K +$358 10-16 03:54
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? Yes +3,333 $1,933 65¢ $2.2K +$233 10-20 05:13
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No -1,665 -$1,332 74¢ $-1224 +$108 08-06 17:00
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes +1,359 $652 44¢ $605 -$48 10-12 00:48
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes +3,233 $2,375 16¢ $517 -$1,858 10-02 13:54
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes -1,286 -$658 38¢ $-485 +$173 09-20 19:56
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes +4,567 $4,802 11¢ $480 -$4,323 09-04 03:47
iaea visits isfahan fordow or natanz nuclear site by december 31 128 Yes +4,453 $1,356 10¢ $445 -$910 10-05 04:02
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes +3,119 $1,057 13¢ $401 -$656 06-19 22:58
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? Yes +16,543 $3,006 2¢ $331 -$2,675 10-23 17:20
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? Yes +18,887 $3,511 2¢ $312 -$3,199 10-02 03:06
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31? Yes +6,268 $795 5¢ $301 -$494 10-21 04:36
Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? Yes +444 $275 34¢ $153 -$122 09-18 11:42
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? Yes +1,111 $644 12¢ $139 -$505 09-20 11:28
iaea visits isfahan fordow or natanz nuclear site by october 31 Yes +11,519 $1,588 1¢ $81 -$1,508 10-05 09:06