Complete-Referendum 0x3c593a…011766 Create alert
whale hot
← all wallets
Realized P&L (7d)
+$31.7K
Unrealized P&L
-$8.35K
Hit rate
78.3%
Resolved (7d)
16
Trades (7d)
60
8,782 lifetime
Volume (7d)
$44.0K
$3.52M lifetime
Avg / trade
$401
Open exposure
$55.9K
22 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 11-09 09:11
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 156 days
Categories
Politics
57% 53% +$210,962
Other
36% 51% -$70,080
Crypto
3% 50% +$21,757
Tech
3% 67% +$25,934
Sports
1% 44% +$3,813
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
67 active days in 12wk • peak 210 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No -40,575 -$37,308 88¢ $-35909 +$1,399 10-23 17:31
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election? No +6,446 $4,218 67¢ $4.3K +$81 11-08 14:10
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? No +3,798 $2,907 98¢ $3.7K +$834 10-02 05:30
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? Yes +3,333 $1,933 66¢ $2.2K +$283 10-20 05:13
Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME Person of the Year 2026? No +2,294 $2,095 93¢ $2.1K +$39 11-08 22:42
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? Yes +12,221 $2,111 17¢ $2.1K -$33 11-08 14:55
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30? Yes +11,259 $2,178 14¢ $1.5K -$658 11-08 05:23
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No -1,665 -$1,332 57¢ $-957 +$375 08-06 17:00
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31? Yes +5,247 $1,449 16¢ $813 -$636 10-28 08:46
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes -1,286 -$658 32¢ $-413 +$245 09-20 19:56
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes +4,567 $4,802 9¢ $411 -$4,391 09-04 03:47
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be TIME Person of the Year 2026? Yes +3,438 $206 8¢ $284 +$77 10-15 03:36
Will Abdul El-Sayed be TIME Person of the Year 2026? Yes +2,065 $240 14¢ $279 +$39 11-08 22:40
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes +3,233 $2,375 6¢ $210 -$2,165 10-02 13:54
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes +3,119 $1,057 4¢ $136 -$921 06-19 22:58
Will Mark Carney be TIME Person of the Year 2026? No +152 $134 88¢ $134 +$1 11-09 09:11
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? Yes +1,111 $644 8¢ $94 -$550 09-20 11:28
Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? Yes +444 $275 19¢ $84 -$191 09-18 11:42
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? Yes +4,035 $3,497 2¢ $83 -$3,415 10-25 11:11
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes +35,887 $75 0¢ $54 -$21 10-26 12:20
Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? Yes +405 $80 1¢ $3 -$77 09-20 18:12
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No +0 -$1,333 99¢ $0 +$1,333 06-08 11:14