Impossible-Reject — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1.45K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

93.4%

Resolved

Trades

6,264

lifetime

Volume

$482.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$77

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-04 11:33

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 9 days

Categories

Politics

71% 60% +$425

Other

25% 80% +$1,025

Crypto

2% — —

Tech

1% — —

Sports

1% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

29 active days in 12wk • peak 419 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	20	$16.6K	9,063	8,629	+434	open	—	02-28 07:03
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	61	$14.8K	11,495	11,495	+0	open	—	04-22 04:11
will iran strike israel on march 10	44	$14.6K	9,035	9,035	+0	open	—	03-16 00:18
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	80	$13.4K	21,083	22,733	-1,650	open	—	02-28 06:59
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	104	$10.9K	17,601	17,801	-200	open	—	04-07 20:57
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	59	$9.3K	19,607	13,907	+5,700	open	—	04-09 20:08
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	280	$9.0K	43,432	39,752	+3,680	open	—	06-01 10:53
will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	24	$7.9K	7,925	3,362	+4,563	open	—	04-22 04:13
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	17	$7.6K	7,913	2,467	+5,447	open	—	06-02 23:07
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	125	$7.3K	29,899	29,599	+300	open	—	03-31 04:55
new stranger things episode released by wednesday	12	$6.9K	7,010	0	+7,010	open	—	01-07 17:29
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	96	$6.6K	5,819	5,818	+0	open	—	04-15 10:13
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	21	$6.4K	5,822	3,600	+2,222	open	—	01-15 13:28
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	101	$6.3K	17,016	15,097	+1,920	open	—	04-22 16:40
will two people exchanging saliva win best live action short film at the 98th academy awards	6	$6.3K	3,251	3,251	-0	open	—	03-16 00:34
atp marozsa tsitsip 2026 04 13	66	$5.9K	7,000	7,000	+0	open	—	04-15 10:48
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	64	$5.6K	7,057	5,183	+1,875	Yes	+$1,157	04-24 18:02
will trump talk to vladimir putin in january	20	$5.5K	5,600	0	+5,600	open	—	02-02 13:56
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	42	$5.1K	7,918	6,350	+1,568	open	—	04-15 22:55
trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	8	$4.9K	5,888	5,888	+0	open	—	03-12 12:59
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	47	$4.8K	8,455	8,455	+0	open	—	04-30 20:20
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	97	$4.8K	8,930	10,639	-1,709	open	—	03-06 19:56
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	6	$4.3K	2,300	2,300	+0	open	—	04-21 18:00
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	40	$4.2K	6,269	6,269	+0	open	—	03-23 19:03
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	96	$3.9K	147,350	122,222	+25,128	open	—	04-01 16:36
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 18 2026	6	$3.8K	1,500	2,500	-1,000	open	—	04-17 01:49
us x iran meeting by february 6 2026	41	$3.6K	3,035	3,035	+0	open	—	02-09 17:41
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	43	$3.5K	25,958	25,958	+0	open	—	04-05 05:35
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	33	$3.5K	4,402	4,402	+0	open	—	04-07 18:27
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	37	$3.5K	2,323	2,478	-155	open	—	03-01 00:55

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-04 11:33:41	chatgpt full outage by august 31 20260715010037673	Yes	SELL	13	35¢	$5	0x5015d1…
08-04 11:33:26	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	Yes	SELL	243	0¢	$1	0xfa1873…
08-04 11:33:17	todd blanche confirmed as attorney general by august 30 20260608213258431	No	SELL	14	19¢	$3	0x81ade3…
07-23 16:01:12	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	BUY	61	40¢	$24	0xd74a3e…
07-12 20:41:26	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	BUY	200	40¢	$80	0xb06df6…
07-10 09:59:22	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	BUY	17	40¢	$7	0x1de33e…
07-10 09:14:02	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	BUY	25	40¢	$10	0x2eb955…
07-10 07:45:37	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	BUY	200	40¢	$80	0x7fec56…
07-10 07:18:40	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	BUY	563	40¢	$225	0x691404…
07-10 06:24:53	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	BUY	75	40¢	$30	0x3cf61b…
07-10 06:24:53	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	BUY	100	40¢	$40	0x18285e…
07-10 04:34:37	will the next google gemini pro model be released by july 17 2026	No	BUY	100	88¢	$88	0x9b1124…
07-10 04:34:22	will the next google gemini pro model be released by july 17 2026	No	BUY	142	87¢	$123	0x287d2e…
07-09 20:05:01	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	BUY	1,582	41¢	$648	0x315505…
07-08 07:07:47	gpt 5pt6 released by july 10 2026 416 792	Yes	BUY	34	97¢	$33	0x3e4c42…
07-08 07:04:10	gpt 5pt6 released by july 10 2026 416 792	Yes	BUY	15	97¢	$15	0x4d294e…
07-08 07:02:55	gpt 5pt6 released by july 10 2026 416 792	Yes	BUY	154	97¢	$149	0x42f863…
07-07 14:54:52	gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026 789	No	BUY	162	93¢	$150	0x7f6912…
07-07 14:53:01	gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026 789	No	BUY	86	92¢	$79	0x5253a4…
07-07 14:52:59	gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026 789	No	BUY	23	92¢	$21	0x18a37f…
07-07 14:51:50	gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026 789	No	BUY	113	91¢	$103	0xc792ca…
07-07 14:51:40	gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026 789	No	BUY	10	89¢	$9	0x3ff97b…
07-07 14:50:43	gpt 5pt6 released by july 7 2026	No	SELL	379	96¢	$364	0x3f0318…
07-07 02:27:02	gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026 789	No	BUY	57	87¢	$49	0x468972…
07-07 02:25:08	gpt 5pt6 released by july 7 2026	No	BUY	275	90¢	$247	0xc6bf90…
07-06 11:42:19	gpt 5pt6 released by july 7 2026	No	BUY	49	90¢	$44	0x12a6f3…
07-06 11:32:08	gpt 5pt6 released by july 7 2026	No	BUY	34	90¢	$31	0x6da0ee…
07-06 11:24:50	gpt 5pt6 released by july 7 2026	No	BUY	125	90¢	$112	0xdd71ed…
07-06 03:28:02	gpt 5pt6 released by july 7 2026	No	BUY	148	93¢	$137	0xcfa012…
07-06 03:26:01	gpt 5pt6 released by july 7 2026	No	BUY	27	92¢	$24	0x9f371d…
07-06 02:52:37	gpt 5pt6 released by july 7 2026	No	BUY	43	93¢	$40	0x979043…
07-06 02:46:58	gpt 5pt6 released by july 7 2026	No	BUY	50	93¢	$46	0x6d9c06…
07-05 21:48:34	gpt 5pt6 released by july 7 2026	No	BUY	166	94¢	$156	0xb4ce66…
07-05 21:48:34	gpt 5pt6 released by july 7 2026	No	BUY	256	94¢	$241	0x6522fc…
07-05 20:03:32	will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on july 4 20260626160825418	Yes	SELL	1,564	26¢	$410	0xdc6829…
07-05 18:56:13	will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on july 4 20260626160825418	Yes	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x2e7901…
07-05 18:55:55	will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on july 4 20260626160825418	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x54bb32…
07-05 18:43:05	will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on july 4 20260626160825418	Yes	BUY	122	53¢	$65	0xcdaed7…
07-05 18:42:52	will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on july 4 20260626160825418	Yes	BUY	426	53¢	$226	0x2ad10d…
07-05 18:39:13	will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on july 4 20260626160825418	Yes	BUY	1,005	60¢	$599	0x56e966…
07-04 19:00:14	will trump speak to volodymyr zelenskyy in july 20260626154217425	Yes	BUY	297	99¢	$294	0xc6da75…
07-04 18:51:52	will jason kelce be a groomsman at taylor swifts wedding 20260630160118470	Yes	BUY	225	93¢	$210	0x850b97…
07-04 18:51:41	will jason kelce be a groomsman at taylor swifts wedding 20260630160118470	Yes	BUY	175	92¢	$162	0x1b9d93…
06-07 20:57:10	iran closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	BUY	239	90¢	$214	0x4e3d78…
06-07 20:57:09	iran closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	BUY	16	90¢	$14	0x0f8baf…
06-07 20:55:48	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	SELL	1,074	8¢	$88	0xa96e63…
06-07 20:55:48	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	SELL	126	8¢	$10	0x7fcc10…
06-07 20:06:22	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	1,200	31¢	$372	0xcd28d6…
06-07 20:06:06	will trump restart project freedom by june 30	No	SELL	518	84¢	$435	0xc6fb01…
06-05 13:17:34	atp mensik zverev 2026 06 05	Alexander Zverev	BUY	60	75¢	$45	0x0b4866…
06-04 19:28:21	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	3,077	13¢	$400	0x9a5b17…
06-04 18:09:46	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	400	14¢	$56	0x0bfd00…
06-04 15:32:09	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	Yes	BUY	4,590	4¢	$193	0xef5e20…
06-04 15:30:51	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x01bfce…
06-04 15:28:42	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x6cec79…
06-04 15:24:39	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	Yes	BUY	24	4¢	$1	0x1eed0c…
06-04 15:24:33	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	Yes	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0xf876c6…
06-04 15:23:10	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	Yes	BUY	61	4¢	$3	0x60a165…
06-04 15:22:39	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0xc5329e…
06-04 15:22:39	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	Yes	BUY	13	4¢	$1	0x0dc2fd…
06-04 15:18:54	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x05ba65…
06-04 15:18:30	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0xe2d1d2…
06-04 15:18:01	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	Yes	BUY	7	4¢	$0	0xaea6ad…
06-04 15:16:30	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	Yes	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0x4a2c78…
06-04 15:14:57	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	Yes	BUY	6	4¢	$0	0xb167dd…
06-03 15:03:33	Will "Disclosure Day" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	5	59¢	$3	0xd2f167…
06-02 23:34:30	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?	No	SELL	132	77¢	$102	0x510740…
06-02 23:07:24	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,206	99¢	$2,181	0x140914…
06-02 11:20:26	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?	Yes	SELL	9	5¢	$0	0x67da8f…
06-01 22:50:09	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3,170	100¢	$3,154	0x5ddeb5…
06-01 14:11:34	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	600	58¢	$349	0x2f59a2…
06-01 10:53:42	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	18,538	0¢	$19	0x6e41e3…
06-01 06:19:25	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	252	0¢	$0	0xf70191…
06-01 04:51:35	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	0¢	$0	0x78e5d2…
06-01 04:42:08	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	SELL	2	0¢	$0	0x62787f…
06-01 04:37:51	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	0¢	$0	0x38ca08…
06-01 04:04:20	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,074	0¢	$1	0x79e209…
06-01 04:04:05	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20,399	0¢	$20	0x986be7…
06-01 04:03:35	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	SELL	3,100	0¢	$6	0x84d029…
06-01 03:36:29	Steve Bannon exonerated by June 30?	Yes	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0xe4fbaa…
06-01 03:26:50	Steve Bannon exonerated by June 30?	Yes	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0x17ea3d…
06-01 03:26:46	Steve Bannon exonerated by June 30?	Yes	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0x679d4d…
06-01 03:26:45	Steve Bannon exonerated by June 30?	Yes	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0x2f6cf2…
06-01 03:26:43	Steve Bannon exonerated by June 30?	Yes	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0xf7cae1…
06-01 03:26:41	Steve Bannon exonerated by June 30?	Yes	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0x425374…
06-01 02:41:41	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x44d76b…
06-01 01:59:23	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	SELL	1,200	0¢	$2	0x036343…
06-01 00:18:44	Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?	No	BUY	226	93¢	$210	0x56664b…
05-31 22:54:09	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	SELL	9	0¢	$0	0x8900fb…
05-31 22:04:46	Steve Bannon exonerated by June 30?	Yes	SELL	40	69¢	$28	0x50140a…
05-31 22:02:54	Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca	Joao Fonseca	BUY	462	81¢	$375	0xae4a93…
05-31 22:02:21	Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca	Joao Fonseca	BUY	38	81¢	$30	0xc142a7…
05-31 22:01:53	Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca	Joao Fonseca	BUY	470	82¢	$385	0xbdfcbe…
05-31 22:01:39	Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca	Joao Fonseca	BUY	30	82¢	$25	0xbd7d1b…
05-31 21:54:25	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	90	99¢	$89	0xafbaa1…
05-31 21:53:38	Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?	No	BUY	287	93¢	$267	0xa1228f…
05-31 21:33:58	Will Bryan Johnson have sex again by May 31?	No	SELL	59	94¢	$55	0x3dbc9f…
05-31 13:07:40	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	SELL	4,900	0¢	$5	0xd31038…
05-31 12:51:50	Will Bryan Johnson have sex again by May 31?	No	SELL	64	94¢	$60	0xab1162…
05-31 12:17:25	Will Bryan Johnson have sex again by May 31?	No	SELL	100	94¢	$94	0xad5fea…