Cheerful-Nucleotidase — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$27.6K

Unrealized P&L

-$739

Hit rate

63.9%

Resolved

779

Trades

4,886

lifetime

Volume

$458.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$94

Open exposure

$608

11 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 10-26 18:09

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 191 days

Categories

Politics

51% 52% -$2,981

Other

45% 39% +$28,244

Tech

2% 72% +$1,356

Crypto

2% 45% +$858

Sports

1% 38% +$121

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

48 active days in 12wk • peak 60 trades/day

Open positions (11) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?	Yes	+2,351	$439	8¢	$200	-$239	07-29 17:57
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	Yes	+348	$190	47¢	$164	-$26	10-14 00:07
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	No	+171	$95	55¢	$95	+$0	10-26 15:31
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	+480	$204	9¢	$45	-$159	10-26 14:04
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+274	$80	14¢	$38	-$42	09-20 18:09
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?	Yes	+36	$19	52¢	$19	$0	09-21 18:33
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	Yes	+143	$10	8¢	$12	+$2	09-17 20:26
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Yes	+588	$100	2¢	$12	-$88	09-24 12:57
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+200	$52	6¢	$11	-$41	06-18 03:18
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Yes	+100	$56	8¢	$8	-$48	05-27 21:54
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	Yes	+1,275	$102	0¢	$4	-$98	09-26 19:00

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us strikes iraq by february 28	49	$46.0K	56,814	53,814	+3,000	Yes	+$34,879	03-04 06:33
us strikes iraq by march 7	58	$22.3K	13,229	17,191	-3,962	Yes	+$2,557	03-08 17:54
will iran strike israel on march 10	92	$19.5K	124,220	126,983	-2,763	Yes	-$6,679	03-16 11:02
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	78	$12.7K	42,618	42,618	+0	No	-$1,111	06-25 15:18
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	26	$10.5K	20,052	7,653	+12,400	No	-$1,823	07-10 23:45
will iran strike nine or more countries in march	11	$10.3K	9,077	2,257	+6,820	Yes	+$906	03-05 10:31
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	20	$8.8K	7,773	7,773	+0	Yes	+$2,687	04-09 19:42
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	4	$8.2K	4,573	4,573	+0	Yes	+$43	03-08 21:13
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	40	$7.4K	4,600	4,800	-200	No	+$1,037	05-29 23:02
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	71	$6.6K	4,367	4,367	+0	Yes	+$579	06-30 06:30
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	18	$6.0K	3,000	3,200	-200	No	+$224	05-29 17:09
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	29	$5.4K	4,159	4,348	-188	Yes	+$275	04-21 11:32
iran closes its airspace by june 8	6	$4.5K	2,678	2,678	+0	Yes	+$551	06-11 21:24
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	22	$4.3K	86,953	64,020	+22,933	No	-$829	05-21 20:56
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	13	$4.3K	6,470	3,700	+2,770	No	+$944	06-02 13:04
us x iran meeting by april 10 2026 895	27	$4.3K	36,201	36,201	+0	No	-$334	04-13 22:05
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	12	$4.2K	14,775	14,775	+0	Yes	+$80	04-21 18:37
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	31	$4.2K	17,314	17,314	+0	No	-$707	05-09 00:48
will another country strike iran by march 31 833	12	$4.1K	3,820	3,820	+0	No	-$201	03-13 03:21
will iran strike cyprus in march	12	$4.1K	13,475	13,475	+0	No	-$2,574	03-11 18:06
will trump agree to unfreeze iranian assets by june 30	84	$4.0K	5,086	5,086	+0	Yes	+$1,557	06-16 21:46
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	11	$3.8K	5,023	3,023	+2,000	No	+$1,241	05-27 01:03
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	10	$3.4K	6,107	5,131	+977	No	-$571	04-30 20:50
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	17	$3.3K	1,909	1,909	+0	No	+$266	05-24 21:04
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	6	$3.0K	8,249	3,460	+4,789	No	-$2,182	04-15 21:40
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	11	$2.9K	1,573	1,573	+0	Yes	+$125	05-29 21:49
will cdu win the second most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	8	$2.9K	3,590	3,590	+0	Yes	-$2	03-09 21:29
will the greens win the second most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	8	$2.8K	5,609	5,609	+0	No	-$354	03-09 21:05
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 21 2026	6	$2.8K	1,631	1,631	+0	No	+$6	04-21 19:57
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	39	$2.7K	5,458	5,458	+0	No	+$353	05-26 00:44

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 18:09:24	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	308	81¢	$249	0xea3716…
10-26 15:31:44	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	No	BUY	100	55¢	$55	0x4121fc…
10-26 14:52:06	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	18¢	$18	0x7397c4…
10-26 14:52:06	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	18¢	$9	0x6e4234…
10-26 14:52:06	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	18¢	$9	0x4705c2…
10-26 14:35:39	Will the next Muse Spark model (1.4+) debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	48	62¢	$30	0x3b8b09…
10-26 14:26:17	Will the next Muse Spark model (1.4+) debut at a score of at least 1490 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	131	61¢	$80	0x031373…
10-26 14:22:00	Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?	Yes	SELL	138	14¢	$19	0x7053fb…
10-26 14:21:51	Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	Yes	SELL	255	12¢	$31	0x337e57…
10-26 14:16:39	Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?	Yes	SELL	455	3¢	$16	0x0faf3d…
10-26 14:11:24	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0xcab649…
10-26 14:04:56	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	480	10¢	$50	0x28e18b…
10-26 14:04:15	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	12	57¢	$7	0x71abd0…
10-26 14:04:08	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	328	56¢	$183	0x7df5d8…
10-23 11:40:35	Will Elon Musk rejoin the Trump Administration in 2026?	Yes	SELL	198	4¢	$8	0x735b2d…
10-23 11:40:12	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	Yes	SELL	792	4¢	$32	0xd97ea2…
10-23 11:39:50	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1530 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	128	39¢	$50	0xebc09d…
10-23 11:39:29	Claude 6 released by March 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	90	37¢	$34	0x63c069…
10-23 11:38:44	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	666	10¢	$68	0xca6867…
10-23 11:38:38	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	1,137	13¢	$150	0x93c20f…
10-22 06:19:13	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0x8907ef…
10-22 04:54:30	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x66f57a…
10-22 00:47:42	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	32	60¢	$19	0x7b4ede…
10-21 22:42:20	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	47	60¢	$28	0x3312e6…
10-21 19:28:20	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	340	29¢	$100	0x1d76a3…
10-20 14:15:54	Will Claude Fable 5.2+ debut at an output token price of at least $50 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	85	55¢	$47	0xe779c0…
10-20 14:15:54	Will Claude Fable 5.2+ debut at an output token price of at least $50 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x45a3ad…
10-20 14:15:54	Will Claude Fable 5.2+ debut at an output token price of at least $50 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	6	55¢	$4	0x0dc041…
10-17 16:24:15	Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	53	51¢	$27	0xbe7cfa…
10-17 12:19:23	Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	47	51¢	$24	0x61ad44…
10-17 07:27:26	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	25	50¢	$13	0x24e6a9…
10-17 07:16:33	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	18	50¢	$9	0xafcf98…
10-17 07:14:02	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	25	50¢	$12	0x91205f…
10-17 02:53:20	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	16	73¢	$12	0xaa7d3c…
10-17 02:52:06	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	18	73¢	$13	0x6183c9…
10-17 02:52:06	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	60	73¢	$44	0x48cae1…
10-15 20:18:35	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	484	30¢	$145	0xd89f3f…
10-15 15:54:22	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	70	14¢	$10	0xbb5912…
10-15 15:54:08	next fable model 5pt2 released by october 15 2026	Yes	BUY	85	12¢	$10	0xeac8ff…
10-15 13:08:52	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	143	28¢	$40	0x30fe32…
10-15 13:08:43	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	No	BUY	71	56¢	$40	0x3b63ca…
10-15 12:28:44	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	118	13¢	$15	0x929fe4…
10-14 17:11:01	next fable model 5pt2 released by october 14 2026	Yes	BUY	87	13¢	$11	0x147743…
10-14 17:10:52	next fable model 5pt2 released by october 14 2026	Yes	BUY	386	13¢	$50	0xbf28e4…
10-14 12:13:51	next fable model 5pt2 released by october 15 2026	Yes	BUY	135	37¢	$50	0x6e826f…
10-14 12:13:30	next fable model 5pt2 released by october 14 2026	Yes	SELL	48	8¢	$4	0xf5c092…
10-14 00:07:16	Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	Yes	BUY	164	55¢	$90	0x6b2c92…
10-13 22:30:34	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	172	58¢	$100	0x83371a…
10-13 22:29:49	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 50% or higher?	Yes	BUY	41	86¢	$35	0xc4fc3b…
10-13 19:08:45	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	179	56¢	$100	0x0e3ea5…
10-13 19:08:31	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	48	21¢	$10	0x9813ef…
10-13 19:07:22	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	6	73¢	$4	0x97e01e…
10-13 19:07:03	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1530 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	303	33¢	$100	0x8e97ed…
10-13 19:06:45	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	179	56¢	$100	0x1b88ef…
10-13 19:06:31	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	132	76¢	$100	0x6e9d40…
10-13 17:24:54	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1500 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	19	88¢	$17	0x44f6e0…
10-13 15:15:34	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	321	31¢	$100	0x9a985d…
10-13 15:15:10	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	156	64¢	$100	0x2dfa9a…
10-13 09:02:47	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	250	20¢	$50	0x37b8e0…
10-13 08:27:38	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	105	95¢	$100	0x46ab95…
10-12 18:18:42	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	673	30¢	$200	0xcc2035…
10-12 18:17:36	Will the next Muse model family be named Muse Flare?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x9b994c…
10-12 18:17:29	Will the next Muse model family be named Muse Flame?	No	BUY	161	100¢	$160	0xe5789b…
10-12 14:21:38	Gemini Argon released by October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	37	67¢	$25	0x9d72dc…
10-11 21:03:19	Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	57	35¢	$20	0xa6fb01…
10-11 15:47:19	Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-10-11?	Yes	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0x05ceb3…
10-11 15:22:01	Erling Haaland: Anytime Goalscorer	Yes	BUY	21	47¢	$10	0x9b527f…
10-10 20:20:16	Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?	Yes	BUY	72	83¢	$60	0xd437ff…
10-08 20:54:00	gemini 4pt0 released by october 23 2026	Yes	BUY	133	75¢	$100	0x6167f2…
10-08 16:31:53	Gemini 4.0 released by October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	225	89¢	$200	0x506b64…
10-08 16:31:41	Gemini 4.0 released by October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	34	87¢	$30	0xf7af59…
10-08 16:31:24	Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	32	31¢	$10	0x65f5e8…
10-08 13:18:08	Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0x855f57…
10-08 13:12:48	Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	27¢	$22	0x252134…
10-08 13:01:32	Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	156	32¢	$50	0xdc53f2…
10-08 12:16:47	Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	126	40¢	$50	0xcfab0a…
10-08 11:39:42	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	125	80¢	$100	0x62d605…
10-08 11:39:36	Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	127	39¢	$50	0xe94048…
10-08 11:35:08	Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	Yes	BUY	213	47¢	$100	0x511970…
10-08 00:55:32	SSI public model released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	77	13¢	$10	0x8540f2…
10-07 09:49:14	Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	542	92¢	$500	0x24e9f0…
10-07 09:33:50	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	1,001	31¢	$311	0x1ce5d7…
10-07 09:33:24	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	480	90¢	$433	0x913d3f…
10-06 19:23:29	Will Iceland win on 2026-10-06?	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x81a333…
10-06 19:00:47	Will Iceland win on 2026-10-06?	Yes	BUY	18	56¢	$10	0xbe9ed3…
10-06 18:43:59	Will Iceland win on 2026-10-06?	Yes	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0xf37ab9…
10-05 11:43:55	SSI public model released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	13¢	$3	0x161e6a…
10-03 15:11:02	Will the US strike 11 countries in 2026?	Yes	SELL	133	0¢	$1	0xc8f0df…
10-03 15:10:53	Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026?	Yes	SELL	197	28¢	$55	0x037dd8…
10-03 15:10:00	Will Iceland win on 2026-10-03?	Yes	BUY	6	64¢	$4	0x04d249…
10-02 20:59:08	SSI public model released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	78	11¢	$9	0x16c072…
10-02 16:27:32	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	385	39¢	$150	0x55c347…
10-02 16:17:54	Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,149	2¢	$25	0xdfa61e…
10-02 16:15:56	Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	32	31¢	$10	0xb4dff2…
10-02 04:43:05	Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	4¢	$2	0x673250…
10-01 21:56:30	Iran coup attempt by December 31?	Yes	SELL	660	9¢	$59	0x8d616f…
10-01 20:45:09	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	269	37¢	$100	0xc35448…
10-01 20:44:42	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	57	87¢	$50	0x363cdb…
10-01 18:33:47	Next Grok Model (4.8+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	83	60¢	$50	0x876159…
10-01 15:25:45	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	347	29¢	$100	0xa29e9a…