Probable-Council — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$224

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

64.2%

Resolved

Trades

559

lifetime

Volume

$22.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$40

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-09

last 05-09 06:51

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 46% $-224

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

26 active days in 12wk • peak 64 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
eth updown 15m 1776764700	2	$512	441	416	+25	open	—	04-21 10:00
eth updown 15m 1775984400	2	$456	379	359	+20	open	—	04-12 09:15
eth updown 15m 1776762900	3	$443	406	384	+22	open	—	04-21 09:26
eth updown 15m 1776066300	2	$409	329	312	+16	open	—	04-13 08:00
eth updown 15m 1775888100	2	$384	363	344	+19	open	—	04-11 06:26
eth updown 15m 1776431700	3	$374	346	327	+20	open	—	04-17 13:28
eth updown 5m 1776840900	12	$367	292	278	+14	open	—	04-22 07:00
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	6	$339	265	265	+0	open	—	04-29 08:04
eth updown 5m 1776063300	2	$328	266	254	+12	open	—	04-13 06:59
eth updown 15m 1775986200	3	$326	308	293	+15	open	—	04-12 09:43
eth updown 15m 1776667500	3	$320	361	339	+22	open	—	04-20 06:58
eth updown 5m 1776321300	2	$320	232	222	+10	open	—	04-16 06:40
eth updown 5m 1776321900	2	$315	234	225	+10	open	—	04-16 06:49
eth updown 15m 1776838500	4	$311	253	241	+12	open	—	04-22 06:30
eth updown 5m 1776842700	2	$311	245	235	+10	open	—	04-22 07:29
eth updown 15m 1776233700	2	$292	208	200	+8	open	—	04-15 06:30
eth updown 5m 1776147300	2	$289	203	196	+7	open	—	04-14 06:18
eth updown 5m 1776764100	2	$287	214	206	+8	open	—	04-21 09:38
eth updown 15m 1776430800	2	$281	238	228	+10	open	—	04-17 13:07
eth updown 15m 1775997000	3	$278	235	225	+10	open	—	04-12 12:40
eth updown 15m 1776148200	2	$260	189	182	+6	open	—	04-14 06:37
eth updown 5m 1776843600	2	$260	190	184	+6	open	—	04-22 07:42
ethereum up or down april 21 2026 5am et	3	$259	284	271	+13	open	—	04-21 09:45
eth updown 5m 1776064200	3	$256	182	176	+6	open	—	04-13 07:15
eth updown 5m 1776060900	2	$251	189	182	+6	open	—	04-13 06:18
eth updown 5m 1776147900	2	$248	185	179	+6	open	—	04-14 06:28
eth updown 5m 1776430500	2	$229	177	172	+6	open	—	04-17 12:57
eth updown 15m 1775998800	3	$211	347	329	+18	open	—	04-12 13:09
eth updown 5m 1776065100	3	$200	407	0	+407	open	—	04-13 07:27
eth updown 15m 1776762000	2	$185	143	136	+7	open	—	04-21 09:15

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-09 06:51:44	Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Up	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x2a65dd…
05-09 06:38:26	Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Up	BUY	278	18¢	$50	0xccc282…
05-09 06:35:59	Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Up	BUY	236	21¢	$50	0xf2a441…
05-09 06:20:41	Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET	Up	BUY	46	11¢	$5	0xb6fb0e…
05-09 06:13:18	Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Down	SELL	43	74¢	$32	0xbf7b83…
05-09 06:10:49	Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Down	BUY	43	46¢	$20	0x019a3a…
05-08 12:55:37	Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0xfc25ef…
05-08 12:55:02	Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Up	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0x27c1fa…
05-08 12:54:53	Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Up	SELL	8	91¢	$7	0xf54f59…
05-08 12:54:53	Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Up	SELL	8	91¢	$7	0x491b71…
05-08 12:54:52	Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Up	SELL	3	91¢	$3	0xace023…
05-08 12:54:52	Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Up	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0x81e33e…
05-08 12:54:52	Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Up	SELL	2	91¢	$2	0x559765…
05-08 12:53:43	Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Up	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0x794c42…
05-08 12:52:00	Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Up	SELL	32	35¢	$11	0x581ae6…
05-08 12:51:01	Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Up	BUY	32	32¢	$10	0xe6f308…
05-08 12:42:19	Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0xab3280…
05-08 12:38:30	Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	SELL	20	80¢	$16	0x9fe08f…
05-08 12:35:45	Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x17384f…
05-08 12:33:24	Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Up	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0xea5ae3…
05-08 12:33:15	Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x0f1ba8…
05-08 12:19:25	Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Down	SELL	15	87¢	$13	0x103db5…
05-08 12:16:13	Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Down	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0xba9e5d…
05-08 12:09:48	Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Down	SELL	3	88¢	$3	0x9973ed…
05-08 12:09:09	Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Down	SELL	6	91¢	$5	0xd76faa…
05-08 12:09:09	Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Down	SELL	4	91¢	$3	0xcd6234…
05-08 12:09:06	Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Down	SELL	7	91¢	$6	0xa52167…
05-08 12:06:06	Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Down	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x90c183…
05-08 06:40:39	Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Up	SELL	6	41¢	$2	0x820630…
05-08 06:34:33	Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Up	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x35328d…
05-08 06:33:18	Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Down	SELL	40	85¢	$34	0x37b1df…
05-08 06:31:09	Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Down	BUY	40	50¢	$20	0xadcb01…
05-08 06:29:34	Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET	Down	SELL	5	92¢	$5	0x58ca9e…
05-08 06:29:34	Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET	Down	SELL	11	92¢	$10	0x1889dd…
05-08 06:24:58	Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Down	SELL	19	93¢	$17	0x4f8e74…
05-08 06:24:58	Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Down	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0x44a6b1…
05-08 06:24:58	Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Down	SELL	25	93¢	$23	0x3fbede…
05-08 06:22:52	Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET	Down	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0xa0b7c6…
05-08 06:21:15	Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Down	BUY	48	41¢	$20	0x517066…
05-07 12:51:00	Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	19	26¢	$5	0x1b2a09…
05-07 12:50:28	Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xe26f9c…
05-07 12:45:03	Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Up	SELL	16	96¢	$15	0xd5f4aa…
05-07 12:45:01	Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Up	SELL	4	96¢	$3	0xf61bc8…
05-07 12:43:53	Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x9f6b53…
05-07 12:17:11	Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0xdc3b29…
05-07 12:17:03	Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	24	41¢	$10	0xb48bbc…
05-07 12:06:24	Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Up	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0x2b0e74…
05-07 12:06:19	Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Up	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0x26e0e7…
05-07 12:03:20	Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	SELL	18	90¢	$16	0x1d8cc6…
05-07 12:01:51	Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	BUY	18	55¢	$10	0xabebf8…
05-07 07:21:58	Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	Up	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0x51edc2…
05-07 07:21:47	Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	Up	BUY	88	21¢	$19	0xbdf1af…
05-07 07:21:37	Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	Up	BUY	118	17¢	$20	0x70f796…
05-07 07:18:16	Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Up	SELL	58	77¢	$45	0x0c53dd…
05-07 07:16:36	Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Up	BUY	58	52¢	$30	0xc5878d…
05-07 07:11:02	Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	Down	BUY	107	28¢	$30	0xb03fd1…
05-07 07:07:11	Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Down	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x57707b…
05-07 07:05:27	Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0x4ab04d…
05-07 07:04:58	Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	SELL	8	98¢	$8	0xd399e4…
05-07 07:04:58	Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0xb08146…
05-07 07:04:58	Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	SELL	4	98¢	$4	0xa6a668…
05-07 07:04:58	Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	SELL	7	98¢	$7	0xa09297…
05-07 07:04:58	Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	SELL	8	98¢	$8	0x64564a…
05-07 07:04:58	Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x3511f3…
05-07 07:00:42	Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	BUY	38	53¢	$20	0xa5b65e…
05-07 06:58:36	Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0xdbbc0c…
05-07 06:58:17	Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	25	41¢	$10	0x94a682…
05-07 06:52:50	Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Up	SELL	90	54¢	$48	0x883af2…
05-07 06:47:56	Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	20	23¢	$5	0x552a11…
05-07 06:47:28	Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	20	19¢	$4	0x7dcec4…
05-07 06:47:08	Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	23¢	$2	0x25689a…
05-07 06:47:01	Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0x4c72ca…
05-07 06:47:01	Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	15	26¢	$4	0x16771f…
05-07 06:46:51	Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	15	26¢	$4	0x8a3c0e…
05-07 06:46:46	Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0x61a0dd…
05-07 06:40:00	Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Down	SELL	7	93¢	$6	0xa69faf…
05-07 06:40:00	Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Down	SELL	50	93¢	$46	0x811124…
05-07 06:38:20	Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Down	BUY	28	36¢	$10	0x150572…
05-07 06:37:38	Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Down	BUY	29	35¢	$10	0x950e6a…
05-06 07:47:48	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	45	11¢	$5	0x3831fa…
05-06 07:47:22	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	300	12¢	$34	0x8c3fb1…
05-06 07:42:20	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0xd1f11b…
05-06 07:40:06	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	182	16¢	$30	0x53355c…
05-06 07:32:24	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Up	BUY	255	20¢	$50	0x173dea…
05-06 07:15:00	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Down	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x3c8f96…
05-06 07:14:06	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xb1f4aa…
05-06 07:08:42	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Up	SELL	150	86¢	$128	0x477841…
05-06 07:07:14	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Up	BUY	150	33¢	$50	0xc30cb6…
05-06 07:01:26	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	BUY	97	51¢	$50	0xf68dbd…
05-06 07:00:04	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Up	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0xd84589…
05-06 06:59:38	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Up	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0xf4ee48…
05-06 06:59:38	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Up	SELL	14	95¢	$14	0x4ea1b1…
05-06 06:59:38	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Up	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0x1fefb1…
05-06 06:59:36	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Up	SELL	9	95¢	$9	0xeb222b…
05-06 06:59:36	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Up	SELL	10	95¢	$10	0x6d3e3d…
05-06 06:59:36	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Up	SELL	8	95¢	$8	0x6c58d5…
05-06 06:59:36	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Up	SELL	9	95¢	$8	0x24f1a8…
05-06 06:52:50	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	61	33¢	$20	0x197eb0…
05-06 06:51:04	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Up	BUY	161	31¢	$50	0xc2268f…
05-06 06:40:34	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	173	29¢	$50	0xc59436…