Standard-Itinerary — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$7.92K

Unrealized P&L

-$323

Hit rate

69.4%

Resolved

Trades

100

lifetime

Volume

$35.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$356

Open exposure

$787

5 positions

First seen

2026-01-11

last 10-24 08:19

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 42 days

Categories

Politics

71% 39% +$11,955

Other

20% 18% -$4,140

Crypto

9% 60% +$219

Sports

0% 0% -$110

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	+2,326	$610	14¢	$334	-$276	07-13 23:49
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	+764	$200	39¢	$298	+$98	07-10 20:55
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	+1,516	$100	5¢	$74	-$26	07-14 00:01
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	+2,138	$100	2¢	$46	-$54	07-14 00:00
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	+370	$100	10¢	$35	-$65	10-22 23:19

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	2	$14.3K	13,778	13,778	+0	Yes	+$12,343	02-28 22:56
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 21st	2	$1.5K	1,091	1,091	+0	No	+$338	04-12 16:33
bitcoin above 60k on june 27 2026	2	$1.4K	1,789	1,789	+0	Yes	+$807	06-26 11:26
will a gulf state strike iran by march 7	4	$1.3K	6,016	6,016	+0	No	+$150	03-07 20:58
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	4	$1.3K	2,060	2,060	+0	No	-$81	03-25 21:54
netanyahu out by march 31 854	4	$1000	17,005	0	+17,005	No	-$1,000	03-16 21:49
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	2	$816	517	517	+0	Yes	+$216	04-05 11:42
bitcoin above 62k on june 26 2026	2	$787	517	517	+0	No	+$187	06-25 18:40
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	2	$610	2,326	0	+2,326	open	—	07-13 23:49
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	2	$587	426	426	+0	No	+$187	04-23 19:48
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	1	$500	62,500	0	+62,500	No	-$500	06-02 18:06
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	1	$500	970	0	+970	Yes	+$470	03-22 23:33
will trump say khamenei this week march 29	3	$500	2,936	0	+2,936	No	-$500	03-26 21:55
nuclear weapon detonation by march 31	1	$500	5,784	0	+5,784	No	-$500	03-02 08:36
will any european country expel an israeli ambassador by march 31	1	$500	4,081	0	+4,081	No	-$500	03-11 14:36
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	2	$477	512	512	+0	open	—	10-24 08:19
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?	2	$467	295	295	+0	No	+$67	10-22 23:18
us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	1	$410	1,708	0	+1,708	No	-$410	06-25 10:07
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	1	$400	2,384	0	+2,384	No	-$400	03-03 22:21
us x iran ceasefire by march 6	2	$365	2,727	2,727	+0	No	-$235	03-04 12:07
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	2	$318	303	303	+0	No	+$118	04-17 21:09
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	1	$300	2,500	0	+2,500	No	-$300	03-22 23:33
will trump say ayatollah or khamenei this week march 15	3	$300	170,000	0	+170,000	No	-$300	03-19 06:55
bitcoin above 56k on june 28 2026	1	$300	3,160	0	+3,160	Yes	-$300	06-25 17:17
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	2	$300	55,239	0	+55,239	Yes	-$300	06-28 12:51
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 1 above $195?	1	$300	1,058	0	+1,058	Yes	-$300	05-31 22:21
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	1	$267	0	270	-270	Yes	-$3	06-24 16:35
elon musk of tweets january 16 january 23 420 439	2	$232	1,004	1,004	+0	No	+$32	01-22 20:56
elon musk of tweets march 23 march 25 40 64	2	$223	208	208	+0	Yes	+$23	03-25 06:48
elon musk of tweets march 30 april 1 40 64	1	$200	513	0	+513	No	-$200	03-30 19:54

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-24 08:19:00	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	512	74¢	$377	0x5644ce…
10-22 23:20:27	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	No	BUY	1,111	9¢	$100	0x2485c2…
10-22 23:19:57	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	BUY	370	27¢	$100	0xa1698e…
10-22 23:18:20	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?	No	SELL	295	91¢	$267	0x773da8…
10-20 16:32:44	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	512	20¢	$100	0x331846…
10-20 16:32:27	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?	No	BUY	295	68¢	$200	0x3913f3…
07-14 00:01:02	Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,516	7¢	$100	0xc0ba69…
07-14 00:00:53	Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,138	5¢	$100	0xc3fc7a…
07-13 23:49:05	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	BUY	1,164	27¢	$310	0x31e4de…
07-13 23:47:50	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	BUY	1,162	26¢	$300	0xd25156…
07-10 20:55:41	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	BUY	764	26¢	$200	0x46ee1c…
07-09 09:20:13	Will Morocco win on 2026-07-09?	Yes	BUY	714	14¢	$100	0x689ebd…
06-28 20:38:17	will trump say mutilation during faith freedom coalition conference 20260626142533762	Yes	BUY	100,000	0¢	$100	0x3098e6…
06-28 12:51:10	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	50,000	0¢	$100	0x9f7cd7…
06-26 11:56:46	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5,239	4¢	$200	0xf04f12…
06-26 11:26:53	bitcoin above 60k on june 27 2026	No	SELL	1,789	62¢	$1,107	0x56a2a4…
06-25 20:05:59	pete hegseth out as secretary of defense by july 31 20260616200232527	Yes	BUY	1,250	8¢	$100	0xdad00b…
06-25 18:40:22	bitcoin above 62k on june 26 2026	No	SELL	517	94¢	$487	0x4e46f0…
06-25 17:17:35	bitcoin above 56k on june 28 2026	No	BUY	3,160	9¢	$300	0x4d3b82…
06-25 10:16:05	bitcoin above 60k on june 27 2026	No	BUY	1,789	17¢	$300	0xece44b…
06-25 10:15:17	bitcoin above 62k on june 26 2026	No	BUY	517	58¢	$300	0x9a0841…
06-25 10:08:28	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,064	4¢	$43	0x464617…
06-25 10:07:01	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	Yes	BUY	1,708	24¢	$410	0x3c3f3b…
06-24 16:35:22	Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	270	99¢	$267	0xd3b1d0…
06-08 21:46:31	world cup goalkeeper to score 20260607161409835	Yes	BUY	2,278	5¢	$110	0x465f10…
06-02 18:06:31	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	62,500	1¢	$500	0xee616c…
05-31 22:21:45	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 1 above $195?	No	BUY	1,058	28¢	$300	0x392bd6…
05-31 22:21:29	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 1 above $185?	No	BUY	757	15¢	$110	0xa52658…
05-31 22:19:56	NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 1?	Down	BUY	209	48¢	$100	0x61ef5a…
05-25 18:44:49	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	192	52¢	$100	0x1ae35e…
05-08 14:36:21	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,064	9¢	$100	0x3a21b4…
04-23 19:48:20	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	SELL	426	91¢	$387	0x94870d…
04-17 21:11:10	trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 18 2026	Yes	BUY	1,279	1¢	$10	0xb4bb52…
04-17 21:09:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	SELL	303	72¢	$218	0x2c188c…
04-12 16:33:21	trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 21st	No	SELL	1,091	86¢	$938	0xb6e619…
04-09 17:56:59	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	BUY	426	47¢	$200	0x4bed2f…
04-08 21:13:35	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	No	BUY	471	42¢	$200	0x2c6972…
04-08 19:28:07	trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 21st	No	BUY	1,091	55¢	$600	0x255b98…
04-08 18:53:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-08 18:50 UTC	Down	BUY	125	80¢	$100	0x8ee93c…
04-08 18:51:31	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	No	BUY	526	19¢	$100	0x1426b3…
04-08 16:58:09	ucl bay1 rma1 2026 04 15 rma1	Yes	BUY	455	22¢	$100	0xf36ae3…
04-05 16:59:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	303	33¢	$100	0xc33a7f…
04-05 12:01:03	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	Yes	BUY	1,053	19¢	$200	0x10e6c5…
04-05 11:53:33	us x iran ceasefire by april 30	Yes	BUY	556	18¢	$100	0x2d7bd8…
04-05 11:53:29	US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	Yes	BUY	428	47¢	$200	0xba3ffb…
04-05 11:42:05	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	517	100¢	$516	0x67c6c4…
03-30 20:41:09	elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 500 519	Yes	BUY	5,761	2¢	$100	0x240d51…
03-30 20:40:55	elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 240 259	Yes	BUY	769	13¢	$100	0x90bffd…
03-30 19:54:31	elon musk of tweets march 30 april 1 40 64	Yes	BUY	513	39¢	$200	0x547e7d…
03-29 21:10:44	will trump say chuck norris this week march 29	Yes	BUY	137	73¢	$100	0xfd661b…
03-29 16:51:20	elon musk of tweets march 30 april 1 140 164	Yes	BUY	2,206	5¢	$100	0x35679d…
03-26 21:55:37	will trump say khamenei this week march 29	Yes	BUY	769	13¢	$100	0x7a3fe8…
03-26 09:58:19	will trump say khamenei this week march 29	Yes	BUY	1,015	20¢	$200	0xf7dd55…
03-26 09:56:33	will trump say egg this week march 29	No	BUY	228	44¢	$100	0xb2737a…
03-26 09:56:07	will trump say khamenei this week march 29	Yes	BUY	1,152	17¢	$200	0xa72ea4…
03-26 09:54:13	will trump say nuclear 3 times during cabinet meeting on march 26	No	BUY	400	25¢	$100	0x8fa34f…
03-25 21:58:47	will war machine be the top global netflix movie this week 974	Yes	BUY	928	11¢	$100	0xffb0d1…
03-25 21:54:29	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	SELL	541	19¢	$103	0xdd56e6…
03-25 06:48:57	elon musk of tweets march 23 march 25 40 64	Yes	SELL	208	59¢	$123	0xbc2f17…
03-24 20:18:29	elon musk of tweets march 23 march 25 40 64	Yes	BUY	208	48¢	$100	0x854a6c…
03-22 23:33:47	US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	Yes	BUY	970	52¢	$500	0xedc5c0…
03-22 23:33:29	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	Yes	BUY	2,500	12¢	$300	0x67b517…
03-22 22:59:51	elon musk of tweets march 23 march 25 90 114	Yes	BUY	315	32¢	$100	0xf762c5…
03-22 22:49:25	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	517	58¢	$300	0xfe3784…
03-19 06:55:01	will trump say ayatollah or khamenei this week march 15	Yes	BUY	100,000	0¢	$100	0x07f39e…
03-18 22:26:29	will trump say ayatollah or khamenei this week march 15	Yes	BUY	50,000	0¢	$100	0x223256…
03-18 19:36:39	will trump say ayatollah or khamenei this week march 15	Yes	BUY	20,000	0¢	$100	0x0dab02…
03-16 21:49:31	netanyahu out by march 31 854	Yes	BUY	8,329	5¢	$400	0xca25c8…
03-16 12:37:59	ucl mnc1 rma1 2026 03 17 rma1	Yes	BUY	526	19¢	$100	0xd7cef2…
03-14 22:38:25	netanyahu out by march 31 854	Yes	BUY	6,116	7¢	$400	0xbd8612…
03-13 22:03:19	netanyahu out by march 31 854	Yes	BUY	1,341	7¢	$100	0x0a9c3d…
03-13 18:14:59	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	541	37¢	$200	0xfa0d29…
03-11 23:44:33	netanyahu out by march 31 854	Yes	BUY	1,219	8¢	$100	0x5b0407…
03-11 14:36:29	will any european country expel an israeli ambassador by march 31	Yes	BUY	4,081	12¢	$500	0x85aabe…
03-07 20:58:39	will a gulf state strike iran by march 7	Yes	SELL	5,023	1¢	$41	0x74e122…
03-07 14:08:49	will a gulf state strike iran by march 7	Yes	BUY	5,023	4¢	$200	0xb86e60…
03-07 11:46:13	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	SELL	1,519	34¢	$516	0x83b68e…
03-05 14:06:15	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	1,519	33¢	$500	0xd30d5f…
03-04 12:07:55	us x iran ceasefire by march 6	Yes	SELL	2,727	2¢	$65	0x099a0e…
03-03 23:41:37	house passes massie khanna war powers resolution by march 13 231	Yes	BUY	1,521	7¢	$100	0x052de4…
03-03 22:21:19	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	Yes	BUY	2,384	17¢	$400	0xca4229…
03-03 14:47:21	will a gulf state strike iran by march 7	Yes	SELL	993	71¢	$708	0x660f7a…
03-02 08:36:21	nuclear weapon detonation by march 31	Yes	BUY	5,784	9¢	$500	0xc0ace6…
03-02 00:52:39	will a gulf state strike iran by march 7	Yes	BUY	993	40¢	$400	0xeb8fca…
03-02 00:43:37	us x iran ceasefire by march 6	Yes	BUY	2,727	11¢	$300	0xbbed46…
02-28 22:56:05	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	Yes	SELL	13,778	97¢	$13,343	0x5a8731…
02-19 21:18:16	Will the US strike Iran next?	Yes	BUY	11,055	1¢	$100	0x349491…
02-18 16:03:52	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	Yes	BUY	13,778	7¢	$1,000	0xdae898…
02-03 21:37:08	Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	357	47¢	$166	0x81079d…
01-22 20:56:20	elon musk of tweets january 16 january 23 420 439	Yes	SELL	1,004	13¢	$132	0x1bd6f6…
01-22 19:09:58	elon musk of tweets january 16 january 23 400 419	Yes	SELL	416	8¢	$35	0x87216f…
01-21 22:46:24	elon musk of tweets january 16 january 23 440 459	Yes	BUY	2,973	6¢	$176	0x9cd9ba…
01-21 22:45:58	elon musk of tweets january 16 january 23 420 439	Yes	BUY	1,004	10¢	$100	0x1ce7c0…
01-21 22:25:18	elon musk of tweets january 16 january 23 400 419	Yes	BUY	416	15¢	$63	0x5734dd…
01-21 22:21:20	israeli parliament dissolved by march 31 932	No	SELL	100	63¢	$63	0xc83613…
01-21 20:19:16	will zelenskyy wear a suit and tie at the world economic forum	Yes	BUY	1,184	7¢	$81	0xffdbad…
01-14 22:52:40	israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	Yes	BUY	112	54¢	$60	0xa37ecf…
01-14 10:04:38	Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?	Yes	BUY	345	29¢	$100	0xc58f5f…
01-11 19:41:52	israeli parliament dissolved by march 31 932	No	BUY	100	74¢	$74	0xdfc651…
01-11 19:39:00	israel strikes iran by january 16 2026 418	Yes	SELL	833	10¢	$83	0xd79578…