Outlying-Reluctance — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

95.9%

Resolved

Trades

1,563

lifetime

Volume

$25.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$16

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 05-23 03:22

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

64% — —

Crypto

29% — —

Sports

3% 75% +$2

Politics

3% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

50 active days in 12wk • peak 50 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
elon musk of tweets march 20 march 27 240 259	7	$871	500	500	+0	open	—	03-26 19:25
elon musk of tweets february 13 february 20 300 319	12	$806	520	520	+0	open	—	02-20 04:42
elon musk of tweets march 6 march 13 300 319	7	$557	300	300	+0	open	—	03-12 10:41
elon musk of tweets february 24 march 3 260 279	2	$554	300	300	+0	open	—	03-02 12:44
elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 180 199	3	$523	320	320	+0	open	—	03-06 10:26
elon musk of tweets january 26 january 28 90 114	12	$432	289	289	+0	open	—	01-28 15:22
elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 280 299	2	$415	241	239	+2	open	—	04-19 14:59
elon musk of tweets january 29 january 31 90 114	17	$403	422	322	+100	open	—	01-31 15:05
elon musk of tweets february 7 february 9 65 89	6	$354	239	239	+0	open	—	02-09 00:02
elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 280 299	2	$352	200	200	+0	open	—	04-02 13:46
elon musk of tweets february 14 february 16 90 114	15	$351	260	260	+0	open	—	02-16 16:26
elon musk of tweets february 2 february 4 115 139	5	$346	200	200	+0	open	—	02-04 14:35
white house of tweets march 17 march 24 2026 160 179	10	$344	258	258	+0	open	—	03-24 03:15
elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 200 219	3	$334	200	200	+0	open	—	03-03 22:24
elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 300 319	6	$332	270	252	+18	open	—	02-10 12:54
elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 200 219	4	$332	477	461	+16	open	—	04-20 20:49
elon musk of tweets april 10 april 17 280 299	6	$328	195	194	+1	open	—	04-17 02:01
elon musk of tweets march 26 march 28 40 64	2	$324	200	200	+0	open	—	03-28 00:42
elon musk of tweets april 13 april 15 0 39	3	$303	264	135	+129	open	—	04-15 04:59
white house of tweets march 27 april 3 2026 180 199	23	$298	240	240	+0	open	—	04-03 03:19
elon musk of tweets march 6 march 13 340 359	3	$273	176	176	+0	open	—	03-13 11:47
btc updown 15m 1773756900	5	$264	108	188	-80	open	—	03-17 14:30
elon musk of tweets february 17 february 24 340 359	6	$250	204	204	+0	open	—	02-24 15:26
elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 220 239	1	$250	259	0	+259	open	—	04-03 04:34
elon musk of tweets january 30 february 6 320 339	2	$248	154	154	+0	open	—	02-06 00:50
white house of tweets april 10 april 17 2026 180 199	3	$241	142	140	+2	open	—	04-17 14:37
elon musk of tweets january 31 february 2 90 114	13	$235	300	300	+0	open	—	02-02 15:55
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	4	$225	140	138	+2	open	—	04-27 21:12
elon musk of tweets january 20 january 27 420 439	2	$219	150	150	+0	open	—	01-26 23:42
elon musk of tweets february 9 february 11 190 214	4	$216	120	120	+0	open	—	02-11 14:58

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-23 03:22:30	Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5	Over	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x97a9e8…
05-22 22:50:07	Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 225.5	Under	BUY	12	67¢	$8	0x21e667…
05-22 22:41:37	Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5	Over	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x91a5c7…
05-21 02:40:19	Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5	Over	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x55193a…
05-20 13:23:31	Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5	Over	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0x572380…
05-19 21:32:20	Cavaliers vs. Knicks	Cavaliers	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xe5a3cb…
05-19 21:31:03	Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 210.5	Over	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x14bedc…
05-16 18:14:16	doge updown 5m 1778955000	Up	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x2ea7ca…
05-16 18:08:59	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Up	SELL	6	21¢	$1	0x0c1aba…
05-16 18:07:53	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Up	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x6744b2…
05-16 17:59:53	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Up	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0x7eeac2…
05-16 17:59:45	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Up	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0x6568cb…
05-16 17:58:03	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0xf6ab37…
05-16 17:57:33	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0xfd7f48…
05-16 17:39:09	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0x503786…
05-16 17:34:59	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x114ad0…
05-16 17:24:32	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xf64ea0…
05-16 16:54:33	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Down	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0x11c669…
05-16 16:39:55	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Down	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0xe41d73…
05-16 16:39:44	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Down	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0xbcfcb4…
05-16 15:24:35	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Up	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x684104…
05-16 15:19:32	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0xeb8eea…
05-16 15:14:03	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0x8101b6…
05-16 15:08:02	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	SELL	10	13¢	$1	0xe1b61c…
05-15 23:54:50	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xaffb7a…
05-15 23:54:36	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0xee40ad…
05-15 23:13:35	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Down	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x2ed0e5…
05-15 23:08:24	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Down	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x7d93f0…
05-15 23:02:41	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Up	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x14f8fe…
05-15 22:59:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET	Up	SELL	5	17¢	$1	0x702a9e…
05-14 01:43:37	Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 213.5	Under	SELL	22	49¢	$11	0x260eab…
05-14 00:57:29	Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 213.5	Under	BUY	22	46¢	$10	0xdaa0f8…
05-12 02:32:02	Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 210.5	Over	SELL	1	74¢	$1	0xa921c1…
05-12 02:29:42	Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 210.5	Over	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xa16e7e…
05-12 02:22:28	Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5	Over	SELL	8	66¢	$6	0xb122e4…
05-12 02:12:19	Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5	Over	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x0debc1…
05-06 01:24:14	Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 217.5	Under	SELL	10	77¢	$8	0x34d885…
05-06 01:14:08	Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 217.5	Under	BUY	10	72¢	$7	0xe37747…
04-30 02:14:48	Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 245.5	Under	SELL	16	76¢	$12	0x76bc6e…
04-30 02:10:14	Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 245.5	Under	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0xb8f8b1…
04-28 01:28:38	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	No	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x7ad360…
04-27 23:28:42	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	No	BUY	100	61¢	$61	0xff5df1…
04-27 21:12:42	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	No	SELL	138	97¢	$134	0x3abe04…
04-27 19:16:50	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on April 27?	Yes	SELL	7	29¢	$2	0xc7ab5e…
04-27 18:35:24	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	No	BUY	30	76¢	$23	0x610224…
04-27 18:34:28	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	No	BUY	10	76¢	$8	0x5e7753…
04-27 16:59:08	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	No	BUY	100	61¢	$61	0x5c1cc4…
04-27 16:36:18	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on April 27?	Yes	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xe394c4…
04-27 14:20:50	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?	No	SELL	198	58¢	$114	0x8adcfd…
04-27 05:08:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1AM ET	Down	SELL	14	74¢	$10	0xb242d3…
04-27 05:05:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1AM ET	Down	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0xa740a7…
04-27 05:01:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Down	SELL	7	80¢	$6	0xc9178b…
04-27 05:01:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Down	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0x008bc3…
04-27 04:59:38	Dogecoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x0cbbaf…
04-27 04:55:48	Dogecoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0xcc53da…
04-27 04:54:30	Dogecoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Up	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x96d66b…
04-27 04:49:24	Dogecoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Down	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0xb1db6a…
04-27 04:48:38	Dogecoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Down	SELL	3	52¢	$1	0x528cb9…
04-27 04:47:28	Dogecoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Down	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x4662d7…
04-27 04:34:06	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?	No	BUY	53	19¢	$10	0x23705d…
04-26 22:43:56	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?	No	BUY	24	28¢	$7	0x8ea0e7…
04-26 21:58:08	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?	No	BUY	6	28¢	$2	0x4f15c5…
04-26 21:24:36	Will White House post 160-179 posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	Yes	SELL	28	61¢	$17	0x11bbf6…
04-26 13:17:36	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?	No	BUY	20	42¢	$8	0xbe635d…
04-26 05:38:14	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?	No	BUY	100	56¢	$56	0xbadb6f…
04-26 01:00:12	Will White House post 160-179 posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	26¢	$3	0xf78932…
04-26 01:00:12	Will White House post 160-179 posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	26¢	$4	0x0010d9…
04-25 11:31:34	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?	No	SELL	97	24¢	$23	0x768e01…
04-25 03:32:48	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?	No	BUY	100	31¢	$31	0x26e56a…
04-24 20:06:32	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?	No	BUY	100	84¢	$84	0x4cca8a…
04-24 17:49:58	doge updown 5m 1777052700	Down	BUY	44	25¢	$11	0x305eb4…
04-24 15:27:56	elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 180 199	Yes	BUY	100	85¢	$85	0xa6388e…
04-24 14:04:32	elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 180 199	No	SELL	20	43¢	$9	0x23cbc0…
04-24 14:02:44	elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 180 199	Yes	SELL	30	57¢	$17	0x4626e1…
04-24 11:32:10	elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 180 199	Yes	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x878197…
04-23 17:02:24	elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 180 199	Yes	SELL	118	5¢	$6	0x6ff69f…
04-23 16:58:14	elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 180 199	Yes	SELL	148	5¢	$7	0x4edc92…
04-23 11:04:58	elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 180 199	Yes	BUY	280	4¢	$10	0x7dc5e2…
04-22 20:00:46	Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x51dc3d…
04-22 18:52:00	highest temperature in nyc on april 22 2026 56 57f	No	SELL	10	57¢	$6	0x556efd…
04-22 18:47:38	highest temperature in nyc on april 22 2026 56 57f	No	BUY	10	58¢	$6	0x6ffc9a…
04-22 11:28:32	elon musk of tweets april 20 april 22 40 64	Yes	BUY	20	68¢	$14	0xb201f4…
04-22 11:18:50	elon musk of tweets april 20 april 22 65 89	Yes	SELL	102	34¢	$34	0x2dba89…
04-22 04:16:56	elon musk of tweets april 20 april 22 65 89	Yes	BUY	30	3¢	$1	0xa1e87d…
04-22 00:27:36	elon musk of tweets april 20 april 22 65 89	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x7a8753…
04-21 22:56:20	white house of tweets april 17 april 24 2026 160 179	No	SELL	20	70¢	$14	0xf401c7…
04-21 22:20:50	elon musk of tweets april 20 april 22 65 89	Yes	BUY	60	9¢	$5	0xc35486…
04-21 20:39:44	highest temperature in seoul on april 22 2026 14c	No	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0x1260b4…
04-21 20:13:32	doge updown 5m 1776802200	Down	SELL	10	11¢	$1	0x464776…
04-21 19:39:08	highest temperature in seoul on april 22 2026 14c	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xf9a9b4…
04-21 19:01:46	elon musk of tweets april 20 april 22 0 39	Yes	SELL	62	9¢	$6	0xe3b130…
04-21 16:55:52	white house of tweets april 17 april 24 2026 160 179	No	BUY	4	58¢	$3	0xf84f1f…
04-21 16:44:36	elon musk of tweets april 20 april 22 0 39	No	SELL	50	93¢	$47	0x0cb465…
04-21 16:39:30	white house of tweets april 17 april 24 2026 160 179	No	BUY	16	58¢	$9	0xe3d944…
04-21 16:39:28	doge updown 5m 1776789300	Up	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0x455eed…
04-21 16:33:18	doge updown 5m 1776789000	Up	SELL	10	93¢	$9	0xa07910…
04-21 16:32:58	doge updown 5m 1776789000	Down	SELL	10	5¢	$0	0x3c1913…
04-21 16:28:36	white house of tweets april 17 april 24 2026 160 179	Yes	SELL	19	39¢	$8	0xae49b5…
04-21 16:27:02	white house of tweets april 17 april 24 2026 160 179	Yes	BUY	20	44¢	$9	0x4e3b23…
04-21 15:45:28	elon musk of tweets april 20 april 22 0 39	Yes	BUY	13	8¢	$1	0xb7558d…