Wrong-Shackle — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$28

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

65.7%

Resolved

137

Trades

1,510

lifetime

Volume

$9.26K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-16

last 05-16 18:20

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Other

48% — —

Crypto

43% 48% $-28

Politics

10% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

27 active days in 12wk • peak 197 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (12) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will kevin warsh be formally nominated to be chair of the federal reserve by february 28 2026 369	15	$4.4K	5,992	0	+5,992	open	—	02-23 20:40
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	10	$808	1,100	1,100	+0	open	—	04-09 21:52
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	1	$75	500	0	+500	open	—	01-16 15:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	7	$37	24	24	+0	Up	+$2	05-05 01:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	2	$29	15	15	+0	open	—	05-03 19:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	2	$28	15	15	+0	open	—	05-02 18:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	4	$28	15	15	+0	open	—	05-02 18:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET	2	$28	15	15	+0	open	—	05-02 19:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	4	$27	16	16	+0	Up	+$2	05-06 02:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	4	$27	16	16	+0	Up	+$3	05-06 03:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	5	$27	16	16	+0	Down	+$3	05-06 07:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	2	$26	15	15	+0	open	—	05-02 08:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	11	$25	17	17	+0	Down	+$1	05-06 16:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	2	$25	15	15	+0	open	—	05-03 13:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	7	$25	16	16	+0	Down	+$1	05-06 02:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	2	$24	15	15	+0	open	—	05-03 13:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	7	$24	16	16	+0	Up	+$1	05-05 07:26
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	2	$24	15	15	+0	open	—	05-03 17:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	8	$24	16	16	+0	Up	+$1	05-06 03:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	5	$23	16	16	+0	Up	+$1	05-05 08:51
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	5	$23	15	15	+0	open	—	05-03 14:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	2	$23	15	15	+0	open	—	05-03 14:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	5	$22	15	9	+6	open	—	05-02 19:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	3	$22	15	15	+0	open	—	05-03 13:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	6	$22	15	15	+0	open	—	05-02 08:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	4	$21	16	16	+0	Up	$-2	05-05 00:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	3	$20	16	8	+8	Down	+$2	05-05 01:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	2	$19	15	15	+0	open	—	05-04 01:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	4	$19	19	16	+3	Down	$-5	05-06 16:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	2	$19	10	10	+0	open	—	05-01 15:50

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-16 18:20:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Up	SELL	13	1¢	$0	0x5755ee…
05-16 18:17:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Up	BUY	13	23¢	$3	0xc23902…
05-16 18:14:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Up	SELL	7	98¢	$6	0x0e85eb…
05-16 18:14:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Up	BUY	7	45¢	$3	0x731966…
05-16 18:13:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	31¢	$1	0xb240db…
05-16 18:13:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0xe80a25…
05-16 18:10:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Up	SELL	9	1¢	$0	0x040013…
05-16 18:06:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Up	BUY	9	35¢	$3	0x8241b9…
05-16 18:04:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	SELL	8	26¢	$2	0x5717c0…
05-16 18:00:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	BUY	8	39¢	$3	0x0256e3…
05-16 18:00:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Up	SELL	9	1¢	$0	0xefac7f…
05-16 17:56:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Up	BUY	9	35¢	$3	0x038163…
05-16 17:44:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	Up	SELL	9	1¢	$0	0x6f1a34…
05-16 17:44:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	9	35¢	$3	0xd2aa1d…
05-16 17:39:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	SELL	7	1¢	$0	0xc2d9c0…
05-16 17:35:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	BUY	7	43¢	$3	0x962a4e…
05-16 17:34:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	SELL	13	33¢	$4	0xf8d0e1…
05-16 17:32:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	BUY	13	19¢	$2	0x3c7ec7…
05-16 17:30:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	Down	SELL	13	1¢	$0	0x94ad51…
05-16 17:29:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Up	SELL	7	5¢	$0	0xf204d7…
05-16 17:29:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	Down	BUY	13	23¢	$3	0x6c3f91…
05-16 17:26:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Up	BUY	7	41¢	$3	0x579e59…
05-16 17:24:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	SELL	10	49¢	$5	0xcab001…
05-16 17:23:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0x9e54cc…
05-16 17:16:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Down	BUY	7	43¢	$3	0x9bcd49…
05-16 17:14:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Down	SELL	7	10¢	$1	0xbfdb19…
05-16 17:12:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	7	45¢	$3	0xaf8b55…
05-16 17:09:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Down	SELL	10	6¢	$1	0xc897b3…
05-16 17:07:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Down	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0xd40cb6…
05-16 17:07:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Down	BUY	0	29¢	$0	0x6daaae…
05-16 16:54:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Up	SELL	11	13¢	$1	0x5b259a…
05-16 16:52:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Up	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x7b918c…
05-16 16:52:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Up	BUY	3	26¢	$1	0x755a69…
05-16 16:52:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Up	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0x018065…
05-16 15:54:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Up	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0x91f808…
05-16 15:54:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Up	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0x6af14f…
05-16 15:44:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Down	SELL	7	97¢	$7	0xb5f023…
05-16 15:40:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	40¢	$0	0xd2b10c…
05-16 15:40:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	7	40¢	$3	0x5ba107…
05-16 15:39:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Up	SELL	8	24¢	$2	0x2487fa…
05-16 15:36:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Up	BUY	8	36¢	$3	0xdd138d…
05-16 15:24:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Down	SELL	8	4¢	$0	0x501313…
05-16 15:24:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Down	BUY	8	38¢	$3	0x96e18a…
05-16 15:19:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Down	SELL	17	2¢	$0	0x3e5a38…
05-16 15:19:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Down	BUY	17	18¢	$3	0xf12da2…
05-16 14:54:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0xcba5c4…
05-16 14:51:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xd379fb…
05-16 14:51:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0xb3338a…
05-16 14:29:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Down	SELL	4	42¢	$2	0xc0beca…
05-16 14:29:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Down	SELL	17	2¢	$0	0x40639f…
05-16 14:29:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Down	SELL	2	42¢	$1	0xc5250a…
05-16 14:29:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Down	SELL	5	42¢	$2	0x9dfb96…
05-16 14:28:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	17	18¢	$3	0x668f11…
05-16 14:27:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	12	25¢	$3	0xcd2555…
05-16 14:24:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	SELL	9	99¢	$9	0xc4384d…
05-16 14:24:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	BUY	9	33¢	$3	0x4878db…
05-16 14:14:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	SELL	8	1¢	$0	0xddfcab…
05-16 14:11:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	36¢	$1	0x834a80…
05-16 14:11:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0x9c5430…
05-16 14:09:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	SELL	9	5¢	$0	0x5bfe76…
05-16 14:05:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	9	33¢	$3	0xcb2f1f…
05-16 13:55:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	9	34¢	$3	0x4dc20c…
05-16 13:55:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Down	SELL	7	1¢	$0	0x9909fb…
05-16 13:51:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Down	BUY	7	42¢	$3	0xc71c59…
05-16 13:47:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	BUY	10	31¢	$3	0xd00369…
05-16 13:44:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Down	SELL	1	3¢	$0	0x9a2359…
05-16 13:44:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Down	SELL	21	3¢	$1	0x60698f…
05-16 13:43:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	17	14¢	$2	0xdb0417…
05-16 13:43:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	4	14¢	$1	0x8a14f6…
05-16 13:34:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Down	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0x811450…
05-16 13:34:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Down	SELL	3	96¢	$3	0x0f48c0…
05-16 13:32:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Down	BUY	0	35¢	$0	0x6936c0…
05-16 13:32:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Down	BUY	8	35¢	$3	0x640b21…
05-16 13:29:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Up	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0x89a56f…
05-16 13:29:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Up	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0x41bc8d…
05-16 13:26:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	7	44¢	$3	0xbbb060…
05-16 13:26:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	7	45¢	$3	0xff0d63…
05-16 12:56:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	15	20¢	$3	0xdda862…
05-16 12:54:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Up	SELL	8	4¢	$0	0xd62a78…
05-16 12:53:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Up	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xecbe00…
05-16 12:53:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xd6f3ec…
05-16 12:53:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Up	BUY	0	36¢	$0	0x87d5ca…
05-16 12:49:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Up	SELL	17	19¢	$3	0x064915…
05-16 12:49:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Up	BUY	3	18¢	$0	0xcdf5db…
05-16 12:49:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Up	BUY	14	18¢	$3	0xaa0289…
05-16 12:44:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Down	SELL	9	11¢	$1	0xb9db62…
05-16 12:41:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	9	35¢	$3	0x8e270d…
05-16 12:39:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Up	SELL	6	6¢	$0	0xfb166e…
05-16 12:39:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Up	SELL	5	6¢	$0	0xd632c2…
05-16 12:39:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Up	SELL	0	6¢	$0	0x906a5f…
05-16 12:36:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Up	BUY	11	27¢	$3	0xe9be48…
05-16 12:35:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	19	16¢	$3	0x9f141f…
05-16 12:26:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	9	34¢	$3	0xb4f0e2…
05-16 12:24:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Up	SELL	3	9¢	$0	0xea5e57…
05-16 12:24:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Up	SELL	5	9¢	$0	0x69621d…
05-16 12:21:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Up	BUY	8	38¢	$3	0x6d27f7…
05-16 12:18:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Up	SELL	20	6¢	$1	0xaa9883…
05-16 12:17:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	14	22¢	$3	0x06d90e…
05-16 12:16:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Up	BUY	3	15¢	$0	0xfb5ff5…
05-16 12:16:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Up	BUY	17	15¢	$3	0xa7f992…