Probable-Census-Swimsuit — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$89

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

98.6%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$14.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$360

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-30

last 07-05 17:30

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 20 days

Categories

Other

86% 100% +$43

Crypto

11% 86% -$137

Tech

2% 100% +$3

Politics

0% 100% +$3

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-05).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 22?	2	$1000	1,002	+1,002	No	+$2	06-22 04:44
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 21?	1	$1000	1,001	+1,001	No	+$1	06-21 20:28
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 20?	1	$998	999	+999	No	+$1	06-20 04:41
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 19?	1	$997	998	+998	No	+$1	06-19 16:22
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C or higher on June 16?	1	$979	980	+980	No	+$1	06-16 09:10
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 36°C or higher on June 3?	1	$918	919	+919	No	+$1	06-03 05:22
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	1	$749	750	+750	No	+$1	05-25 11:28
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17?	1	$749	750	+750	No	+$1	06-17 07:08
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 24?	1	$672	673	+673	No	+$1	06-24 06:48
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 21?	1	$632	633	+633	No	+$1	06-21 05:05
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on May 31?	1	$609	610	+610	Yes	+$1	05-31 16:30
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on July 5?	1	$566	567	+567	No	+$1	07-05 17:30
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 2?	1	$500	501	+501	Yes	+$1	06-02 04:56
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 2?	1	$488	489	+489	No	+$1	06-02 04:57
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on July 5?	1	$438	438	+438	No	+$0	07-05 17:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	3	$400	417	+417	Down	+$17	05-18 16:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	2	$375	389	+389	Up	+$14	05-18 16:12
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 24?	1	$331	331	+331	No	+$0	06-24 06:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	2	$270	288	+288	Down	+$18	05-18 16:23
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17?	1	$247	247	+247	Yes	+$0	06-17 07:09
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	1	$233	235	+235	Yes	+$2	05-22 05:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	1	$200	213	+213	Up	+$13	05-18 16:32
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	1	$200	220	+220	Down	-$200	05-18 16:57
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 9?	3	$96	100	+100	No	+$4	06-09 04:52
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C or higher on May 12?	1	$74	74	+74	No	+$0	05-12 16:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	1	$71	72	+72	Down	+$1	05-18 16:49
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	1	$50	53	+53	No	+$3	05-01 06:38
Gensyn FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?	1	$50	50	+50	No	+$0	04-30 07:59
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02?	1	$50	74	+74	Yes	+$24	05-01 06:39
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 42°F or higher on May 8?	1	$50	50	+50	Yes	+$0	05-07 05:12

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-05 17:30:02	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on July 5?	No	BUY	567	100¢	$566	0x371bde…
07-05 17:29:34	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on July 5?	No	BUY	438	100¢	$438	0xb0c14a…
06-24 06:48:34	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 24?	No	BUY	673	100¢	$672	0xece412…
06-24 06:47:46	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 24?	No	BUY	331	100¢	$331	0x55742e…
06-22 04:44:04	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 22?	No	BUY	502	100¢	$501	0x9144f2…
06-22 04:42:14	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 22?	No	BUY	500	100¢	$499	0xf3cefa…
06-21 20:28:02	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 21?	No	BUY	1,001	100¢	$1,000	0x7465fd…
06-21 05:05:43	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 21?	No	BUY	633	100¢	$632	0xc0c0d8…
06-20 04:41:43	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 20?	No	BUY	999	100¢	$998	0xb23102…
06-19 16:22:04	Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 19?	No	BUY	998	100¢	$997	0xe4715f…
06-17 07:09:16	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17?	Yes	BUY	247	100¢	$247	0x8f0e96…
06-17 07:08:41	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17?	No	BUY	750	100¢	$749	0x01f611…
06-16 09:11:19	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 16?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x87db77…
06-16 09:10:42	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C or higher on June 16?	No	BUY	980	100¢	$979	0xb0c2c3…
06-09 04:52:36	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 9?	No	BUY	58	96¢	$56	0x82258e…
06-09 04:47:37	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 9?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xf99cc9…
06-09 04:47:04	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 9?	No	BUY	37	96¢	$36	0xc8c375…
06-03 05:22:36	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 36°C or higher on June 3?	No	BUY	919	100¢	$918	0x89c20d…
06-02 04:57:25	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 2?	No	BUY	489	100¢	$488	0x3f612b…
06-02 04:56:32	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 2?	Yes	BUY	501	100¢	$500	0x692359…
05-31 16:30:02	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on May 31?	Yes	BUY	610	100¢	$609	0xc250ea…
05-25 11:28:22	Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	750	100¢	$749	0x1742b5…
05-22 05:39:44	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	BUY	235	99¢	$233	0x535076…
05-18 16:57:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Up	BUY	220	91¢	$200	0x95003e…
05-18 16:49:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Down	BUY	72	99¢	$71	0x6e5889…
05-18 16:32:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Up	BUY	213	94¢	$200	0x72f329…
05-18 16:28:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x8d5861…
05-18 16:27:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	105	95¢	$100	0xd23260…
05-18 16:26:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	211	95¢	$200	0xa59dfb…
05-18 16:23:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	BUY	204	98¢	$200	0x703b7c…
05-18 16:22:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	BUY	84	83¢	$70	0xfadd54…
05-18 16:12:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	77	98¢	$75	0x2d2aa8…
05-18 16:11:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	312	96¢	$300	0xad25ca…
05-12 16:40:57	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C or higher on May 12?	No	BUY	74	100¢	$74	0xe01cd7…
05-07 05:12:56	Will the highest temperature in Denver be 42°F or higher on May 8?	Yes	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x9e68b2…
05-01 06:39:26	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02?	Yes	BUY	74	68¢	$50	0x9d2c62…
05-01 06:38:34	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	53	94¢	$50	0x043388…
04-30 07:59:26	Gensyn FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x149ead…
04-30 07:59:02	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0xc121fd…