Realized P&L
+$318.0K
Unrealized P&L
+$44.4K
Hit rate
81.6%
Resolved
277
Trades
9,813
lifetime
Volume
$19.7M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$2.01K
Open exposure
$430.4K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 11-01 19:20
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 141 days
Categories
Politics
52% 66% +$186,526
Other
43% 62% +$172,738
Crypto
2% 100% +$3,822
Sports
2% 43% -$46,438
Tech
1% 50% +$1,352
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
58 active days in 12wk • peak 304 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No +127,393 $109,009 96¢ $122.9K +$13,925 10-29 21:56
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No +105,000 $71,850 76¢ $79.3K +$7,425 11-01 19:20
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes +50,015 $31,010 76¢ $37.8K +$6,752 10-20 18:50
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No +50,000 $33,000 72¢ $36.2K +$3,250 10-24 23:41
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? No +44,098 $27,910 74¢ $32.9K +$4,943 10-29 17:41
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? No +35,680 $25,425 86¢ $30.6K +$5,188 10-06 17:57
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes +14,540 $10,988 95¢ $13.8K +$2,826 07-22 16:36
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes +16,571 $9,871 74¢ $12.3K +$2,474 10-21 21:07
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026? Yes +30,000 $10,500 38¢ $11.5K +$1,050 10-31 17:32
Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026? No +30,000 $10,500 38¢ $11.2K +$750 10-31 19:34
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? Yes +13,964 $10,669 77¢ $10.8K +$84 10-25 22:02
Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027? No +10,580 $5,789 80¢ $8.4K +$2,622 09-30 10:10
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? No +6,227 $2,646 99¢ $6.1K +$3,491 10-25 17:46
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes +15,180 $8,948 20¢ $3.0K -$5,987 10-31 17:25
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? No +11,681 $3,516 20¢ $2.4K -$1,122 10-29 19:05
Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027? Yes +10,580 $3,393 20¢ $2.2K -$1,224 10-03 09:19
will cmi declare a millennium prize problem solved by december 31 2026 20260723160122980 No +2,000 $1,600 96¢ $1.9K +$326 09-05 12:15
Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027? No +1,887 $1,237 88¢ $1.7K +$415 09-29 22:03
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes +2,933 $1,012 40¢ $1.2K +$169 09-13 23:19
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? No +1,143 $880 74¢ $840 -$40 10-26 08:51
Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026? No +812 $481 98¢ $795 +$314 10-05 22:40
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? Yes +2,655 $612 26¢ $704 +$92 10-22 21:39
Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026? No +635 $478 96¢ $611 +$133 09-29 22:03
Will Texas enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026? No +517 $445 98¢ $508 +$63 09-30 02:30
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes -8,147 -$995 5¢ $-403 +$592 07-22 16:36
Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027? Yes +1,887 $553 12¢ $236 -$317 10-03 09:19
Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026? Yes +635 $185 4¢ $24 -$161 09-30 10:11
will indiana enact a data center moratorium by december 31 2026 Yes +812 $144 2¢ $17 -$127 09-29 23:34
will texas enact a data center moratorium by december 31 2026 Yes +517 $62 2¢ $10 -$52 09-30 10:09
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +0 $3,500 84¢ $0 -$3,500 08-02 02:08