Arid-Comedy — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$237

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

70.1%

Resolved

1,165

Trades

3,499

lifetime

Volume

$19.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-03

last 10-22 20:34

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 40 days

Categories

Crypto

84% 66% -$247

Politics

10% 67% +$12

Other

6% 92% -$15

Sports

0% 100% +$13

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

15 active days in 12wk • peak 33 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 17, 2026?	15	$693	369	369	+0	Yes	+$13	10-16 23:38
Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 19, 2026?	16	$407	400	137	+264	No	-$44	10-19 21:38
Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 18, 2026?	5	$240	136	136	+0	Yes	+$20	10-17 21:09
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026?	26	$235	508	343	+165	No	-$72	10-21 16:56
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	3	$200	145	145	+0	open	—	10-22 20:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	13	$190	100	100	+0	Up	+$4	05-03 18:30
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 24, 2026?	4	$186	105	105	+0	Yes	+$1	10-22 18:04
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	2	$169	100	100	+0	open	—	10-15 23:26
Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 20, 2026?	6	$151	100	100	+0	Yes	+$3	10-19 20:57
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026?	6	$149	110	80	+30	No	+$7	10-20 18:58
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 22, 2026?	4	$149	100	100	+0	No	+$9	10-16 09:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	2	$117	0	232	-232	Down	+$1	05-05 23:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	2	$116	0	230	-230	Down	+$1	05-05 23:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	2	$115	0	228	-228	Down	+$1	05-05 23:19
will ukraine target moscow on october 15 2026	6	$108	75	55	+20	Yes	+$6	10-15 20:16
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	3	$105	0	195	-195	Down	+$5	05-05 23:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	16	$74	45	45	+0	Down	-$2	05-22 14:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	16	$70	49	48	+0	Down	-$6	05-22 13:44
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 23, 2026?	6	$66	40	40	+0	Yes	+$2	10-20 23:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	5	$61	0	110	-110	Up	+$6	05-05 22:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	12	$59	37	37	+0	Down	+$2	05-22 19:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	12	$58	37	37	+0	Up	+$1	05-20 13:44
Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 16, 2026?	6	$56	58	58	+0	Yes	+$5	10-15 18:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	12	$55	35	35	+0	Down	-$2	05-20 14:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	6	$55	30	30	+0	Up	+$1	05-03 17:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	12	$55	38	38	+0	Down	-$2	05-22 19:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	12	$53	34	34	+0	Up	-$4	05-22 13:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	12	$52	35	35	+0	Down	-$5	05-22 13:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	12	$51	37	37	+0	Down	-$6	05-20 14:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	4	$51	80	50	+30	Down	-$16	05-03 18:34

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-22 20:34:23	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Yes	SELL	95	70¢	$66	0xcca75c…
10-22 18:04:14	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 24, 2026?	Yes	SELL	102	89¢	$90	0x6baf46…
10-22 16:12:44	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 24, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	89¢	$3	0x0b3d79…
10-21 16:56:36	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	12¢	$12	0xf14e83…
10-20 23:01:33	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	19	84¢	$16	0xef8f42…
10-20 18:58:56	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x6ba78b…
10-20 18:48:29	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	84¢	$10	0x9d32ea…
10-20 18:47:39	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	84¢	$1	0xd059b3…
10-20 17:38:20	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	84¢	$6	0x1b70b8…
10-20 15:30:29	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026?	No	SELL	10	87¢	$9	0x48a842…
10-20 13:07:32	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	10	87¢	$9	0x63ef8d…
10-19 21:38:06	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 19, 2026?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xeb3686…
10-19 21:24:36	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 19, 2026?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x81fdf4…
10-19 20:57:02	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 20, 2026?	Yes	SELL	80	76¢	$61	0xfc9925…
10-19 20:55:32	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 19, 2026?	No	BUY	29	99¢	$29	0x1831ed…
10-19 20:55:26	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 19, 2026?	No	BUY	23	98¢	$23	0x3aca4d…
10-19 20:55:21	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 19, 2026?	No	BUY	113	97¢	$109	0x4c05dd…
10-19 20:53:48	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	43	3¢	$1	0x7cd4ed…
10-19 20:53:21	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 19, 2026?	No	BUY	9	96¢	$9	0xf4362a…
10-19 20:45:42	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	84¢	$1	0xafc7bd…
10-19 18:45:09	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	25¢	$5	0x84ac28…
10-19 17:16:12	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	18	50¢	$9	0xb5531a…
10-19 15:24:53	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	53¢	$13	0x838512…
10-19 11:54:32	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 20, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	82¢	$6	0xe9eca0…
10-19 09:32:42	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Yes	SELL	50	66¢	$33	0xa52bc4…
10-19 09:27:08	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	46	61¢	$28	0x972e27…
10-19 09:26:51	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	61¢	$6	0x7b6846…
10-18 21:29:53	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	80¢	$32	0x9dbc8e…
10-18 17:54:27	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026?	No	SELL	50	69¢	$35	0x1d8f6e…
10-18 17:52:59	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x29ffce…
10-18 17:51:53	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	10¢	$2	0x18b0b3…
10-18 17:51:47	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	37	10¢	$4	0x482977…
10-18 17:51:32	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	10¢	$3	0x644ae7…
10-17 21:09:56	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 18, 2026?	Yes	SELL	136	96¢	$130	0xf788cf…
10-17 20:56:54	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	25¢	$2	0x9a6efc…
10-17 20:56:41	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	65	19¢	$12	0x257c23…
10-17 20:56:26	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	19¢	$2	0x73e456…
10-17 20:55:54	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	19¢	$4	0xe3d282…
10-17 20:55:12	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	25¢	$2	0xf75a41…
10-17 20:54:50	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	22¢	$5	0xa3c7af…
10-17 18:27:30	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	88¢	$9	0x2fab81…
10-17 18:27:12	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	87¢	$6	0xcd6024…
10-17 18:27:05	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	87¢	$3	0x89c141…
10-17 17:49:50	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	69¢	$7	0x8873a5…
10-17 17:45:18	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	54¢	$1	0x2c582f…
10-17 17:33:23	will russia target kyiv on october 17 2026	Yes	SELL	10	53¢	$5	0x9dc7e2…
10-17 08:46:57	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	81¢	$40	0x0880bf…
10-17 08:28:50	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	112	77¢	$86	0xc8a2d7…
10-17 08:26:44	will russia target kyiv on october 17 2026	Yes	BUY	85	89¢	$76	0xa196da…
10-17 06:59:14	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 20, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	84¢	$1	0x2ef513…
10-16 23:38:02	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 17, 2026?	Yes	SELL	154	100¢	$153	0xd4f852…
10-16 22:59:00	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 17, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x04d549…
10-16 22:44:14	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	41	82¢	$34	0x9d8dde…
10-16 22:43:50	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	81¢	$20	0x32fd24…
10-16 22:41:18	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	81¢	$16	0x6b443c…
10-16 22:39:12	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 17, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xe59c7b…
10-16 22:39:12	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 17, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x21223d…
10-16 22:39:12	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 17, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x154d35…
10-16 21:37:41	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0x4ecd92…
10-16 21:37:21	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x6d703e…
10-16 21:37:00	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x5e9855…
10-16 21:36:50	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x04aea4…
10-16 21:36:38	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	97¢	$6	0x3c951b…
10-16 21:36:33	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	35	97¢	$34	0x688fd0…
10-16 21:23:36	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	75	88¢	$66	0x2b4710…
10-16 21:23:30	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	87¢	$26	0x2d1489…
10-16 21:13:41	will russia target kyiv on october 17 2026	Yes	BUY	22	90¢	$20	0x0eac0e…
10-16 21:11:20	will russia target kyiv on october 17 2026	No	SELL	163	10¢	$16	0x42c1cb…
10-16 21:10:06	will russia target kyiv on october 17 2026	No	SELL	10	11¢	$1	0x7298e9…
10-16 20:59:12	will russia target kyiv on october 17 2026	No	BUY	146	13¢	$19	0x9f14c1…
10-16 20:59:12	will russia target kyiv on october 17 2026	No	BUY	22	13¢	$3	0x3e8d20…
10-16 20:34:38	will russia target kyiv on october 17 2026	No	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0xaaaefe…
10-16 18:13:29	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 20, 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	84¢	$10	0xd2581c…
10-16 17:20:36	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Yes	BUY	145	70¢	$101	0xf45429…
10-16 15:42:19	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 17, 2026?	Yes	SELL	73	87¢	$64	0xedfc1c…
10-16 09:37:49	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 22, 2026?	No	SELL	100	79¢	$79	0xf354b8…
10-15 23:26:19	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	100	85¢	$85	0x9a882a…
10-15 21:52:14	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 16, 2026?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x0a3dad…
10-15 21:47:14	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on October 3, 2026?	Yes	SELL	21	97¢	$20	0x624035…
10-15 21:16:41	Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+?	Yes	BUY	20	65¢	$13	0xfc7720…
10-15 20:57:06	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on October 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0xb7e380…
10-15 20:45:29	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 16, 2026?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x9c65d8…
10-15 20:44:38	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xd3d84e…
10-15 20:37:39	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x7b516a…
10-15 20:16:36	will ukraine target moscow on october 15 2026	Yes	SELL	55	95¢	$52	0x55f4cd…
10-15 20:12:30	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	73	78¢	$57	0xe0bcdd…
10-15 19:56:40	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0x5714f5…
10-15 19:43:43	Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+?	Yes	BUY	10	71¢	$7	0xbd8514…
10-15 19:39:02	Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+?	Yes	BUY	30	71¢	$21	0x3559d6…
10-15 19:18:11	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	100	84¢	$84	0xd91c5c…
10-15 18:16:28	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	75¢	$60	0x582822…
10-15 18:13:55	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 17, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	71¢	$14	0x6184df…
10-15 18:07:31	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 16, 2026?	Yes	SELL	28	81¢	$23	0xd4ee5e…
10-15 17:35:20	will ukraine target moscow on october 15 2026	Yes	BUY	5	84¢	$5	0x7ac48a…
10-15 17:34:44	will ukraine target moscow on october 15 2026	Yes	BUY	44	84¢	$37	0x26a5d8…
10-15 17:33:53	will ukraine target moscow on october 15 2026	Yes	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0xcc15ee…
10-15 17:04:20	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 16, 2026?	No	SELL	20	23¢	$5	0xf3a13c…
10-15 17:00:08	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	20	20¢	$4	0xfb5941…
10-15 16:56:20	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 22, 2026?	No	BUY	60	71¢	$43	0xa4c0eb…
10-15 16:50:37	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 22, 2026?	No	BUY	30	69¢	$21	0x11f731…