Fickle-Patio — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$3

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

79.7%

Resolved

Trades

451

lifetime

Volume

$6.57K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$15

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-18

last 05-15 13:36

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Politics

64% — —

Crypto

34% 63% $-3

Other

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

29 active days in 12wk • peak 120 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (5) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	23	$2.5K	1,926	1,720	+206	open	—	04-26 03:17
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	13	$1.1K	767	767	+0	open	—	04-16 16:46
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	10	$525	301	301	+0	open	—	04-13 09:22
btc updown 5m 1776414300	2	$325	342	0	+342	open	—	04-17 08:29
btc updown 5m 1776345900	1	$318	324	0	+324	open	—	04-16 13:29
btc updown 5m 1776364500	1	$317	321	0	+321	open	—	04-16 18:39
btc updown 5m 1776413400	3	$317	338	5	+333	open	—	04-17 08:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	3	$73	74	3	+71	Up	+$2	05-07 12:40
will maricarmen alva be the next president of peru	10	$68	63	63	+0	open	—	02-19 02:35
btc updown 5m 1776433500	2	$64	82	0	+82	open	—	04-17 13:49
btc updown 5m 1775788800	4	$56	77	2	+75	open	—	04-10 02:44
btc updown 5m 1775811900	1	$55	55	0	+55	open	—	04-10 09:10
btc updown 5m 1775790900	1	$52	55	0	+55	open	—	04-10 03:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	3	$27	17	12	+5	Down	+$2	05-14 01:24
will jos mara balcazar be the next president of peru	5	$26	27	27	+0	open	—	02-19 05:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	2	$21	11	11	+0	Up	+$1	05-14 04:05
will michael b jordan win best actor at the 98th academy awards	6	$19	13	13	+0	open	—	03-16 04:16
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	7	$15	15	10	+5	open	—	05-14 08:19
Will Ricardo Belmont finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	6	$15	80	80	+0	open	—	04-11 21:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	3	$15	11	6	+5	Down	+$0	05-14 04:24
Will Ricardo Belmont finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	2	$14	26	26	+0	open	—	04-12 23:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	4	$13	12	12	+0	open	—	05-14 08:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	2	$12	16	0	+16	open	—	04-26 02:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	4	$12	7	7	+0	Up	+$0	05-14 03:00
btc updown 5m 1776414000	3	$12	16	1	+15	open	—	04-17 08:24
btc updown 5m 1775501400	3	$11	7	5	+2	open	—	04-06 18:54
btc updown 5m 1776390600	1	$11	15	0	+15	open	—	04-17 01:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	2	$11	12	0	+12	open	—	05-14 14:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	3	$11	7	5	+2	open	—	05-14 12:23
Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by at least 5%?	1	$10	11	0	+11	open	—	04-27 15:22

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-15 13:36:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x9bea25…
05-14 23:31:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Up	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xfd0f85…
05-14 14:09:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0xa975be…
05-14 14:09:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x03bf05…
05-14 13:45:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Down	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x9865ad…
05-14 13:40:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xe08c10…
05-14 12:59:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x741926…
05-14 12:59:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x2bc69d…
05-14 12:50:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x7a1a07…
05-14 12:49:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x2e3f33…
05-14 12:49:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xa5b4ca…
05-14 12:43:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x9e69ce…
05-14 12:39:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Up	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x5a6c2b…
05-14 12:28:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x32a64e…
05-14 12:26:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	SELL	6	20¢	$1	0xbc7304…
05-14 12:26:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x651a04…
05-14 12:26:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Up	SELL	1	75¢	$1	0xc980b8…
05-14 12:25:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x3b791b…
05-14 12:23:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Up	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0xc514d7…
05-14 12:22:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x17eb9d…
05-14 12:19:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x5290e0…
05-14 12:19:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x5a80a6…
05-14 12:18:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xfc6901…
05-14 12:14:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x69455d…
05-14 08:54:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Up	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x1475cc…
05-14 08:53:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Up	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x6c8b56…
05-14 08:50:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Up	SELL	2	41¢	$1	0x917216…
05-14 08:49:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x894038…
05-14 08:45:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Down	SELL	10	62¢	$6	0x25c136…
05-14 08:44:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Down	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xd23b96…
05-14 08:44:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Down	SELL	2	51¢	$1	0x0c055e…
05-14 08:42:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xada5b9…
05-14 08:38:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Up	SELL	1	88¢	$1	0x5f547c…
05-14 08:37:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Up	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x680afa…
05-14 08:30:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	SELL	10	49¢	$5	0xa7e79c…
05-14 08:29:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x1b6158…
05-14 08:28:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Up	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x410648…
05-14 08:27:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x909905…
05-14 08:27:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x87b19b…
05-14 08:19:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x74731f…
05-14 08:19:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Up	SELL	1	78¢	$1	0xf15b4a…
05-14 08:18:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Up	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0xcfcc6b…
05-14 08:16:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Up	SELL	7	73¢	$5	0xe3bebb…
05-14 08:16:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Up	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0xf87aa8…
05-14 08:15:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Up	SELL	2	69¢	$1	0x0d75d9…
05-14 08:14:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xef816a…
05-14 08:10:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	SELL	2	66¢	$1	0x3885d7…
05-14 08:09:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x0a6d00…
05-14 08:07:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Up	SELL	2	88¢	$1	0x461148…
05-14 08:06:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Up	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x7fdf27…
05-14 04:24:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x4bf051…
05-14 04:22:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Down	SELL	6	89¢	$5	0x303df7…
05-14 04:22:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Down	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0x4239b5…
05-14 04:17:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Up	SELL	2	68¢	$1	0xa32317…
05-14 04:17:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Up	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x2c7c00…
05-14 04:14:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xeb92ed…
05-14 04:14:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Up	SELL	2	81¢	$1	0x80503e…
05-14 04:12:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x73cc7c…
05-14 04:10:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Up	SELL	2	64¢	$1	0xc7cea0…
05-14 04:09:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x2738bd…
05-14 04:05:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Up	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0x50158d…
05-14 04:04:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Up	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0x38dee9…
05-14 03:59:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x2dd5c4…
05-14 03:59:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x02f7d7…
05-14 03:54:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Up	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0x293d03…
05-14 03:53:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Up	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x1077cd…
05-14 03:44:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Up	SELL	1	77¢	$1	0xf87d28…
05-14 03:43:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Up	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x2a945e…
05-14 03:43:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	SELL	2	68¢	$1	0x8d0d25…
05-14 03:42:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x8530d6…
05-14 03:41:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Up	SELL	2	73¢	$1	0x062b60…
05-14 03:41:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x369d19…
05-14 03:35:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Up	SELL	2	65¢	$1	0x3c276c…
05-14 03:35:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x3eca9d…
05-14 03:34:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xf8f9f0…
05-14 03:21:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Up	BUY	13	8¢	$1	0x9cd604…
05-14 03:19:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x474798…
05-14 03:00:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Up	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x10b916…
05-14 02:59:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x18e6a7…
05-14 02:58:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Up	SELL	6	91¢	$5	0x604846…
05-14 02:58:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0xac3a9d…
05-14 02:24:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Up	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0xacb0f9…
05-14 02:24:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xcbbde7…
05-14 02:19:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Down	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x3b9a2b…
05-14 02:14:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xabedf8…
05-14 01:48:36	Will Trump say "Soybean" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x99a7bc…
05-14 01:46:37	Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xe7b7b2…
05-14 01:34:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x7ef2ca…
05-14 01:29:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0xf1d666…
05-14 01:24:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xabf8cb…
05-14 01:24:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Down	SELL	12	97¢	$12	0x9e1f20…
05-14 01:24:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Down	BUY	12	81¢	$10	0x78c4d6…
05-14 01:19:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Down	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x8e1427…
05-14 01:14:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Up	SELL	1	62¢	$1	0xfd1009…
05-14 01:14:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x4d242b…
05-14 01:10:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x3de69c…
05-14 01:07:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Up	SELL	2	26¢	$0	0xb0cb3f…
05-14 01:05:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x96b0f2…
05-14 01:02:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Up	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x98ce9d…
05-14 01:01:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Up	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x4a042c…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
(anonymous) 0x89b5…8beb	169	$76.6K	5,984	05-15 13:37
(anonymous) 0x8852…c569	168	$18.9K	4,392	05-15 13:38
Dry-Solvency 0x5d3c…c298	164	$5.39K	1,192	05-15 13:37
(anonymous) 0x38e5…8a4a	161	$70.2K	19,385	05-15 13:37
Definite-Smoke 0x4b6b…5578	157	$985	299	05-15 13:38
Animated-Health 0x4d8b…a00d	151	$13.3K	1,769	05-15 13:35
(anonymous) 0xba67…4727	143	$39.0K	5,060	05-15 13:38
All-Peasant-Drug 0xe907…cff6	141	$102.2K	3,462	05-15 13:39